Lynas Rare Earths (ASX: LYC) Holds at A$15 as Power Shocks Collide With Strong AGM Support

Lynas Rare Earths Limited (ASX: LYC) is trading around A$15.00 today as investors weigh disruptive power outages at its new Kalgoorlie refinery against strong shareholder backing at yesterday’s annual general meeting and still‑bullish broker targets. ^[1]

Lynas share price today: flat, volatile, and heavily watched

Last trade (ASX, delayed): A$15.00
Previous close: A$15.00
Intraday range (so far): A$14.18–A$15.26
52‑week range: A$6.16–A$21.96
Market capitalisation: ~A$15.1 billion ^[2]

Data from Investing.com show Lynas shares are unchanged on the day, but behind that calm headline is real volatility: yesterday’s session alone saw a swing of about 7.6% between the low and high. Over the past two weeks the stock is still up roughly 8.5%, reflecting the powerful rally that began in mid‑November. ^[3]

Technical site StockInvest notes that volume rose on yesterday’s slight pullback from A$15.02 to A$15.00, a pattern that often signals short‑term consolidation after a strong run rather than a trend reversal. ^[4]

Kalgoorlie power crisis: one month of production on the line

The dominant story for Lynas this week – and the key driver of market risk – is the power crisis at its Kalgoorlie Rare Earths Processing Facility in Western Australia.

Official ASX warning

In a 25 November ASX announcement titled Kalgoorlie Power Supply Disruption, Lynas reported a “significant increase” in power supply disruptions at the new A$800 million plant during 2025, with November outages in particular causing “significant lost production” of mixed rare earth carbonate (MREC). ^[5]

Key points from that announcement and associated Reuters coverage:

The Kalgoorlie plant is supplied via Western Power’s Eastern Goldfields Load Permissive Scheme, an interruptible grid arrangement designed to provide cleaner power in place of diesel generators. ^[6]
Outages in November have been so frequent and prolonged that Lynas now estimates a production shortfall equivalent to around one month’s output in the current quarter, although the exact number is hard to quantify while the grid remains unstable. ^[7]
The shortfall in MREC feed from Kalgoorlie will reduce finished product volumes at the Lynas Malaysia refinery in Gebeng, where kilns are currently shut for major scheduled maintenance and cannot immediately catch up lost volumes. ^[8]

Despite this, Lynas has told the market it still expects to meet “key customer needs” this quarter, drawing on inventories to cushion near‑term sales. ^[9]

Local pressure on WA’s power network

An in‑depth ABC News report published overnight highlights just how fragile the power system around Kalgoorlie has become. The city sits at the far end of a 655‑kilometre transmission line connected to the South West Interconnected System (SWIS), and a combination of capacity constraints and reliability issues has been hurting big industrial users across the Goldfields. ^[10]

The ABC notes that:

The new Lynas refinery on Kalgoorlie’s western outskirts is among the operations forced to downgrade production due to outages. ^[11]
CEO Amanda Lacaze describes the problem as both a generation and network issue, saying the single high‑voltage line into Kalgoorlie constrains how much power can be delivered and that there are also broader system availability issues. ^[12]
The WA government is pursuing a A$150 million, 50‑MW vanadium flow battery for the region, but that isn’t expected to be operational until 2029 – far too late to solve the current crunch. ^[13]

Other miners, including Evolution Mining and Northern Star, are also reported to be exploring their own renewable and off‑grid solutions, underscoring that Lynas is not alone in facing power instability in the Goldfields. ^[14]

Broker reaction: Canaccord and Jefferies quantify the hit

Mining.com reports that Canaccord Genuity has significantly cut its December‑quarter forecasts in response to the outages, trimming: ^[15]

NdPr output to about 1,800 tonnes for the quarter
Quarterly revenue by roughly 20% to about A$220 million
Quarterly EBITDA by ~35% to around A$77 million

Canaccord has also nudged its FY26 EBITDA forecast down to A$524 million from A$567 million, but kept a price target of A$15.55 on the stock – very close to where shares are trading today. ^[16]

Separately, a note summarised by MarketScreener from Jefferies estimates around one month of lost oxide production at Kalgoorlie, echoing Lynas’s own guidance while maintaining an overall positive fundamental stance on the company. ^[17]

Lynas’s response: off‑grid options and “key customers first”

Across its ASX filings and media comments, Lynas outlines a two‑track response: ^[18]

Short‑term:
- Work with the WA government and Western Power to diagnose and mitigate the immediate causes of outages.
- Urgently assess short‑term off‑grid power generation for Kalgoorlie, with management stating that if such a solution is implemented, the lost production should be recoverable within the financial year ending 30 June 2026.
Customer commitments:
- Prioritise existing contracts so that “key customer needs” are met, even if non‑core or spot volumes are temporarily constrained.

For investors, this means the near‑term numbers are likely to be messy, but the company is signalling that its strategic relationships – especially with major magnet and EV supply‑chain customers – will be protected.

AGM 2025: shareholders back the board and strategy

While the power story dominates headlines, yesterday’s Annual General Meeting (AGM) delivered a clear message of shareholder support for Lynas’s leadership and long‑term plans.

All resolutions carried with heavy majorities

In its 26 November “2025 Annual General Meeting Voting Results” announcement, Lynas confirmed that every resolution put to shareholders was carried on a poll, with very high levels of support: ^[19]

Resolution 1 – Remuneration Report
- For: 588,203,232 votes (99.20%)
- Against: 4,745,094 votes (0.80%)
Resolution 2 – Re‑election of Vanessa Guthrie as Director
- For: 588,697,400 (98.71%)
- Against: 7,697,905 (1.29%)
Resolution 3 – Election of Kathleen Bozanic as Director
- For: 567,948,878 (95.24%)
- Against: 28,393,432 (4.76%)
Resolution 4 – Grant of Performance Rights to CEO Amanda Lacaze
- For: 590,961,688 (99.65%)
- Against: 2,101,244 (0.35%)

A follow‑up piece from TipRanks framed the results as evidence of “strong shareholder support”, highlighting that the board refresh – with the election of experienced director Kathleen Bozanic – and the long‑standing leadership of CEO Amanda Lacaze both received overwhelming backing. ^[20]

Strategic direction: from “Lynas 2025” to “Towards 2030”

Lynas has spent the last five years executing its “Lynas 2025” growth strategy, focused on: ^[21]

Expanding the Mt Weld mine and concentrator in WA
Building the Kalgoorlie cracking and leaching facility
Upgrading the Lynas Malaysia advanced materials plant
Laying groundwork for Lynas USA processing in Texas

The company is now pivoting to its “Towards 2030” plan, which targets up to 12,000 tonnes per year of NdPr separation capacity across its system and deeper participation in heavy rare earths such as dysprosium and terbium – key inputs for high‑performance magnets used in EVs and wind turbines. ^[22]

Recent Reuters reporting underscored that trajectory:

Lynas will invest about A$180 million in a new heavy rare‑earth separation facility in Malaysia, capable of processing up to 5,000 tonnes of feedstock annually. ^[23]
First‑quarter FY26 revenue was up 66% year on year, with rare‑earth oxide production rising to nearly 4,000 tonnes and early commercial production of dysprosium and terbium oxides already underway. ^[24]

Against that backdrop, the AGM vote suggests investors are prepared to look through short‑term Kalgoorlie disruptions so long as management continues to execute on the long‑term growth and diversification plan.

Who’s buying? Substantial holders and institutional interest

Substantial‑holder notices through November show that big institutional investors continue to accumulate Lynas stock even amid volatility.

An ASX Form 603 filed on 20 November and summarised by Catcapital reveals that BlackRock and affiliated investment managers have become substantial shareholders in Lynas, joining the register with more than 5% of the company’s voting power spread across multiple funds. ^[25]
Related notices in mid‑ and late‑November indicate both “Becoming a substantial holder” and “Ceasing to be a substantial holder” filings, reflecting portfolio rebalancing rather than a single directional move. ^[26]

Fintel data published via Nasdaq show that: ^[27]

94 funds or institutions report positions in Lynas – up about 15% over the last quarter.
Total institutional holdings have risen about 5.9% to roughly 54.7 million shares.
Several major global index funds, including Vanguard’s international and developed‑markets funds and VanEck’s rare‑earths ETF, have either maintained or increased their allocations.

For retail investors, this growing institutional participation can be a double‑edged sword: it can support liquidity and long‑term capital, but it also means the share price may react sharply to fund‑flow driven moves.

Analyst views: cautious near term, constructive long term

Despite the power‑supply setback, broker sentiment around Lynas remains broadly positive.

Consensus targets

MarketScreener data show a mean analyst rating of “OUTPERFORM” from 14 analysts, with an average 12‑month price target of about A$16.43, implying roughly 9.5% upside from A$15.00. ^[28]
Investing.com’s aggregation is similar, with an average target around A$16.43, a high estimate of A$29.50 and a low of A$9.50, and an overall “Buy” consensus (7 buy, 3 sell ratings). ^[29]

Key broker calls

UBS recently upgraded Lynas to “Buy” and lifted its price target by 17% to A$17.80, citing rising ex‑China rare‑earth demand, Lynas’s strong market position and the earnings leverage from the company’s A$180 million expansion projects. ^[30]
Canaccord Genuity, while cutting near‑term NdPr output and EBITDA forecasts due to Kalgoorlie outages, still maintains a target price around A$15.55, essentially in line with today’s share price, and emphasises that inventories and long‑term demand trends cushion the impact. ^[31]
A late‑October review by Fintel lifted the average one‑year price target for Lynas to A$15.74, up 20% from earlier estimates, and highlighted rising institutional interest as another supportive factor. ^[32]

Overall, the analyst community appears to see short‑term earnings risk from the Kalgoorlie disruptions but no structural change to the core investment thesis: Lynas remains the largest rare‑earths producer outside China, strategically important to Western governments and manufacturers looking to diversify supply chains. ^[33]

Big picture: why Lynas still matters in the rare‑earths race

Beyond today’s share price, Lynas sits at the crossroads of several powerful themes:

Geopolitics and supply security: Western governments, especially the U.S., Japan and the EU, are actively seeking to reduce reliance on Chinese rare‑earth supply. Reuters reporting repeatedly highlights Lynas as a central ex‑China supplier, with Japan’s Sojitz already importing heavy rare earths produced from Mt Weld ore and separated in Malaysia. ^[34]
Energy transition and EVs: NdPr and other rare‑earth oxides from Lynas feed into permanent magnets used in electric vehicles, offshore wind and other clean‑energy technologies. Any sustained production disruption can ripple through these value chains – one reason why power reliability at Kalgoorlie is attracting national attention. ^[35]
Technology and innovation: Lynas’s move into heavy rare‑earth separation and its partnerships (including a recent deal with Solidec to supply clean peroxide for processing) show the company leaning into more advanced materials processing, not just mining. ^[36]

For now, the company has to prove it can stabilise Kalgoorlie while keeping customers supplied and moving forward with its Malaysian expansion.

Key takeaways for Lynas investors on 27 November 2025

Share price steady but volatile: LYC is trading around A$15.00, flat on the day but up strongly over the past fortnight, with wide intraday swings as traders digest power‑related news. ^[37]
Operational risk front and centre: Persistent power outages at Kalgoorlie are expected to reduce quarterly production by roughly a month and shave near‑term revenue and EBITDA, though management still expects to meet key customer commitments and recover lost production within the financial year if off‑grid solutions are implemented. ^[38]
Strong vote of confidence at AGM: All resolutions, including director elections and performance rights for the CEO, passed with more than 95% support, reinforcing the board and management’s mandate to pursue the “Towards 2030” growth strategy. ^[39]
Institutional money is engaged: Substantial‑holder filings and fund‑ownership data show growing institutional interest, including BlackRock and major index funds, even as some holders rebalance. ^[40]
Analysts remain broadly constructive: Consensus targets sit above today’s price, with UBS, Jefferies and others emphasising strong structural demand for rare earths and Lynas’s privileged position as a non‑Chinese supplier, while acknowledging near‑term earnings uncertainty. ^[41]

What to watch next

Investors following Lynas over the coming weeks will likely focus on:

Any update on off‑grid power deals for Kalgoorlie and whether these can be implemented fast enough to recover lost production inside FY26. ^[42]
Further ASX announcements related to substantial‑holder movements, which may hint at additional institutional buying or selling. ^[43]
Macro signals for rare‑earth demand, including policy moves in the U.S., EU and Japan, and any signs of fresh Chinese export restrictions or capacity expansions. ^[44]

For now, Lynas remains a high‑beta, high‑strategic‑value stock: sensitive to operational headlines and commodity prices, but central to the global race for secure supplies of critical minerals.

Important notice

This article is for information and news purposes only. It does not constitute financial product advice, a recommendation to buy or sell any security, or a substitute for independent professional advice. Always consider your own objectives and financial situation and, if needed, consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Lynas Rare Earths Annual General Meeting 2025