Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) heads into Friday’s U.S. session as one of the hottest AI and semiconductor names on the market. The stock has been on a powerful run, fueled by blockbuster AI deals with OpenAI and Google, record revenue, and aggressive long‑term AI targets — but also weighed down by mounting valuation questions and ongoing controversy around its VMware acquisition. [1]
If you’re watching Broadcom stock before the bell on Friday, November 28, 2025, here’s a structured look at what actually matters.
1. Where Broadcom Stock Stands Right Now
- Last close: On Wednesday, November 26, 2025, Broadcom shares rose about 3.3% to $397.57, outpacing peers like Qualcomm and Analog Devices. [2]
- Recent momentum: Over the past week, AVGO has climbed roughly 10–13%, helped by renewed enthusiasm for AI infrastructure and positive sentiment around Google’s AI rally. [3]
- Year‑to‑date performance: Multiple analyses put Broadcom’s 2025 total return near 65–70%, making it one of the best‑performing large‑cap tech stocks this year and a standout AI semiconductor play. [4]
In other words, AVGO is heading into Friday’s open near all‑time highs after a sharp multi‑session run, with expectations already elevated.
Takeaway for tomorrow: The stock is priced as a leader, not an under‑the‑radar bargain. Any new headlines on AI, regulation, or guidance could have an outsized impact on early trading.
2. The AI Engine Behind the Rally: Google, OpenAI and New Chips
Broadcom’s bull case into tomorrow’s session is overwhelmingly about AI infrastructure.
Record AI‑driven Q3
In fiscal Q3 2025, Broadcom reported: [5]
- Total revenue: ~$16.0 billion, up 22% year‑over‑year
- Semiconductor solutions revenue: ~$9.2 billion, up mid‑20s %
- Infrastructure software revenue (including VMware): ~$6.8 billion, up mid‑teens %
- AI semiconductor revenue: about $5.2 billion, up 63% year‑over‑year
- Free cash flow: around $7.0 billion, up ~47% YoY
The company also guided Q4 2025 revenue to about $17.4 billion, with AI chip revenue expected around $6.2 billion, implying mid‑20s total growth and ~66% AI growth versus last year. [6]
Google TPU and Gemini 3 tailwind
Broadcom is a key supplier of custom tensor processing units (TPUs) for Alphabet’s Google Cloud. Following Google’s launch of its Gemini 3 AI model, AVGO shares rallied more than 4% on November 19 as investors bet on higher TPU demand and named Broadcom a top semiconductor pick over Nvidia in some reports. [7]
This link to Google’s AI roadmap is one reason the stock moves whenever Alphabet rallies or announces new model upgrades.
OpenAI partnership: 10 GW of custom AI accelerators
In October 2025, OpenAI and Broadcom announced a multi‑year collaboration to develop and deploy 10 gigawatts of custom AI accelerators and Ethernet networking systems: [8]
- OpenAI designs the chips and systems; Broadcom co‑develops and manufactures them.
- The hardware is slated to start rolling out in 2026 and ramp through 2029.
- Analysts see this as a landmark win in custom AI silicon and a major incremental revenue driver for Broadcom over the second half of the decade. [9]
Reports suggest the announcement triggered double‑digit pre‑market gains for AVGO when it was confirmed, and several commentators now frame Broadcom as a core partner in OpenAI’s broader hardware and data‑center strategy. [10]
New AI networking and storage products
At the same time, Broadcom continues to upgrade the plumbing of AI data centers:
- Tomahawk Ultra / Tomahawk 6 102 Tbps Ethernet switches and next‑gen Jericho devices, designed to interconnect tens of thousands of AI accelerators at very high bandwidth. [11]
- New PCIe Gen 6 interconnect technology aimed at next‑generation AI racks. [12]
- Recently announced Brocade X8 Directors and G820 56‑port 128G Fibre Channel switches, marketed as high‑speed storage networking for mission‑critical and AI workloads, which coincided with a double‑digit percentage surge in the stock. [13]
What this means before the open: Any overnight news that changes expectations for OpenAI’s capex plans, Google’s AI spending, or AI data‑center buildouts in general can move AVGO sharply at Friday’s bell, because the stock is now heavily tethered to that AI narrative.
3. VMware and the Software Pivot: Growth With Baggage
Broadcom’s VMware acquisition, completed in 2023, has turned it into a far more software‑heavy company — and that matters for how investors value the stock. [14]
Software is boosting recurring revenue
Q3 results show infrastructure software revenue of roughly $6.8 billion, rising in the mid‑teens year‑over‑year and contributing a large, recurring, high‑margin stream. [15]
At VMware Explore 2025, Broadcom rolled out VMware Cloud Foundation (VCF) 9.0, pitching it as an integrated private‑cloud platform that unifies compute, networking, storage and security, with deep support across major public clouds. The company framed VCF as the backbone of a new hybrid‑cloud strategy designed for AI and modern enterprise apps. [16]
Partner and licensing changes are still a flashpoint
However, Broadcom’s treatment of the VMware ecosystem remains controversial and is a notable risk investors are monitoring into every earnings update:
- Broadcom has slashed the number of authorized VMware Cloud Service Providers (VCSPs) and shifted to an invite‑only program, forcing many smaller partners to exit or reapply under stricter terms. [17]
- It has eliminated many perpetual licenses, moved aggressively to subscriptions, consolidated product bundles, and raised prices — sometimes producing much higher bills for customers. [18]
- The company has sold VMware’s End User Computing (EUC) division, continuing to streamline the portfolio and focus on core cloud and infrastructure offerings. [19]
- Some customers, partners and European cloud providers have lodged complaints or legal challenges, alleging that Broadcom’s VMware licensing practices are anti‑competitive or overly restrictive. [20]
Why this matters for Friday: While no new VMware bombshell is scheduled for November 28, any fresh regulatory headline or large‑customer dispute could quickly hit sentiment, because VMware now represents a large slice of Broadcom’s recurring software base.
4. Countdown to Q4 Earnings: The Next Big Catalyst
There is no earnings report tomorrow — but we are very close to a critical event.
- Broadcom has confirmed it will report Q4 and full‑year fiscal 2025 results on Thursday, December 11, 2025, after the close, with a conference call at 2:00 p.m. PT / 5:00 p.m. ET. [21]
Based on company guidance and third‑party summaries, here is what the market is primed to see: [22]
- Q4 revenue: Around $17.4 billion, up ~24% year‑on‑year
- AI semiconductor revenue: About $6.2 billion, up ~66% year‑on‑year
- Infrastructure software revenue: Roughly $6.7 billion, up mid‑teens percent
- Adjusted EBITDA margin: Target around 67% of revenue
Analysts and traders going into tomorrow’s session will largely be positioning ahead of that December 11 print.
4 key line items to watch when the report arrives
Even though this is two weeks away, it’s driving positioning now:
- AI revenue trajectory: Does Broadcom nudge its AI revenue outlook closer to the high end of the widely cited $19–30 billion by 2026 range? [23]
- VMware‑driven software growth: Investors will look for clearer disclosure on churn vs. price increases and how quickly VMware customers are embracing VCF‑centric bundles. [24]
- Gross margins and cash flow: With free cash flow already at $7 billion in Q3 and a high‑60s EBITDA margin, the question is whether AI and software can keep lifting profitability without triggering greater pricing pushback. [25]
- OpenAI and hyperscaler color: Any quantitative commentary on the OpenAI deal, or on hyperscaler AI spending in 2026–2027, will be closely parsed. [26]
For tomorrow’s open: Short‑term traders will be watching how AVGO trades relative to peers like Nvidia, AMD and TSMC as expectations keep building into that December 11 earnings “event.”
5. Valuation Check: Broadcom Is Now Priced Like a Superstar
The flip side of all this AI‑driven enthusiasm is valuation risk, and that’s front‑of‑mind for many professionals heading into Friday.
Recent data show: [27]
- Trailing P/E (TTM): Around 95–100x earnings, based on a share price just under $400 and roughly $4 of trailing EPS.
- Forward P/E: Roughly 35–40x next‑year earnings, depending on the source.
- Price‑to‑sales (P/S): Around 25–30x trailing revenue.
- Industry comparison: That trailing P/E is almost 3x the broader U.S. semiconductor industry’s average multiple and well above peers’ median levels.
A recent valuation note even argued that Broadcom is “more expensive than Nvidia but has poorer margins and growth rates,” highlighting the risk of paying too much for peak AI excitement. [28]
On the other hand, bullish models and research shops project:
- Analyst targets such as $420 (Raymond James) and $435 (Goldman Sachs), both implying moderate upside from current levels. [29]
- More aggressive scenario‑based estimates up to $500+ over time if Broadcom executes on AI and software growth. [30]
- Quantitative “fair value” models that are far more conservative — one popular implementation of Peter Lynch’s fair‑value method pegs intrinsic value only around $100 per share, implying the stock could be dramatically overvalued if growth slows. [31]
Net message for tomorrow: AVGO is priced for perfection. Any negative surprise — whether on AI demand, VMware fallout, or macro conditions — could create sharp downside volatility, especially with the stock near record highs and heavily owned by momentum‑oriented investors.
6. Wall Street Sentiment and Institutional Positioning
Despite valuation worries, Street sentiment is still strongly positive:
- A recent survey of analysts showed 43 of 46 rating Broadcom a Buy or equivalent, supported by its dual engine of AI chips and infrastructure software. [32]
- Several firms, including Jefferies and Bernstein, have highlighted Broadcom as a top AI infrastructure pick, citing custom accelerators, networking dominance and software scale. [33]
On the institutional flow side, fresh 13F‑style disclosures compiled by MarketBeat over the last day show a mix of trimming and accumulation: [34]
- Korea Investment Corp slightly reduced its AVGO stake (about a 0.5% trim).
- Garner Asset Management Corp cut holdings by roughly 10%.
- Quadrant Capital Group, Johnson Financial Group and Copley Financial Group, among others, added to or established positions.
The pattern suggests portfolio rebalancing rather than a clear institutional exodus. Given Broadcom’s huge market cap and heavy index presence, it remains a core holding across many large‑cap and tech‑focused funds.
For Friday morning: Watch for any new analyst rating changes or target hikes/cuts published overnight — those often drive pre‑market gaps in high‑multiple names like AVGO.
7. Options and Near‑Term Trading Dynamics for November 28
Friday, November 28, 2025 is a weekly options expiration date for Broadcom, which can add extra noise to price action around the open and into the close. [35]
- There is a dense option chain expiring on Nov. 28 across strikes near and above the current price, with notable open interest in both calls and puts.
- Some option analytics services point to a “max pain” level around $360, well below the current spot price — not a prediction, but a reminder that positioning can tug the stock intraday. [36]
Practical implication: Short‑term traders should expect intraday swings to be amplified by hedging flows from market makers and large options holders, especially if AVGO opens sharply up or down.
8. Key Risks to Keep in Mind Before You Trade
Going into tomorrow’s session, the main risk factors investors are balancing include: [37]
- Execution risk on massive AI commitments
- Delivering 10 GW of custom accelerators for OpenAI, plus ramping Google and other hyperscaler projects, is a multi‑year engineering and supply‑chain challenge. Any slippage in timelines, yields or cost could pressure margins.
- Concentration and regulatory risk
- Broadcom is increasingly tied to a small number of mega‑customers (OpenAI, Google and potentially other hyperscalers). That boosts bargaining power on the customer side and invites regulatory scrutiny.
- VMware backlash
- Ongoing partner cuts, licensing changes and regulatory complaints around VMware can erode goodwill, spur customer migrations to rivals, or result in legal settlements.
- Macro and rates
- Renewed fears of higher interest rates or a slowdown in tech capex could prompt abrupt rotations out of high‑multiple AI names — of which AVGO is one of the most richly valued.
- Valuation and sentiment whiplash
- With P/E ratios roughly three times the sector average, small guidance disappointments could trigger outsized drawdowns, especially with so many fast‑money funds now involved.
9. What to Watch at Friday’s Open – A Quick Checklist
If you’re scanning AVGO before the bell on November 28, 2025, here’s a concise checklist:
- Pre‑market quote vs. peers
- Compare Broadcom’s pre‑market move to Nvidia, AMD, TSMC, and big cloud names (Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon). A big relative move often signals stock‑specific news or a sentiment shift in AI infrastructure.
- Overnight headlines on OpenAI and Google
- Any fresh news on OpenAI’s hardware plans, funding, or regulatory issues, or on Google’s AI and data‑center spending, can move AVGO given its deep partnerships with both. [38]
- Macro data and yields
- Surprises in inflation, employment or bond yields tend to hit high‑multiple tech first. Check how Nasdaq futures are behaving relative to the S&P 500.
- Options‑driven volatility
- Watch early trading volume around popular strikes expiring today (for example, near‑the‑money 380–400 calls and puts). Large flows can exaggerate moves in either direction. [39]
- Any new VMware or regulatory updates
- New statements from European regulators, large cloud providers or major VMware partners about licensing or migration plans could quickly swing sentiment.
Final Thoughts (and a Quick Disclaimer)
Broadcom heads into Friday’s session as a high‑quality but high‑expectations AI and software powerhouse:
- It is deeply embedded in the AI stack — from custom accelerators for OpenAI to TPUs and networking for Google’s massive AI clusters. [40]
- VMware and the broader infrastructure‑software portfolio give it a recurring, high‑margin base that smooths semiconductor cyclicality. [41]
- At the same time, the stock now trades on premium valuations that assume AI revenues will keep compounding rapidly for years — leaving little room for missteps.
Nothing in this article is financial or investment advice. Markets move quickly, and you should always verify the latest price data and consider your own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation — or consult a licensed professional — before trading AVGO or any other stock.
References
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