Netflix Stock (NFLX) Before Market Open on November 28, 2025: What Investors Need to Know

Netflix (NASDAQ: NFLX) heads into Black Friday’s shortened U.S. trading session priced around $106 per share after a turbulent few weeks that included a 10‑for‑1 stock split, a solid-but-controversial Q3 2025 earnings report, and a brief outage during the “Stranger Things” season‑five premiere. ^[1]

With the NYSE and Nasdaq set to close at 1 p.m. ET on Friday, November 28—the traditional half‑day session following Thanksgiving—trading volumes are likely to be lighter than usual as investors digest the latest headlines and position portfolios for year‑end. ^[2]

Here’s how Netflix looks going into tomorrow’s open and the main catalysts traders and long‑term investors will be watching.

Where Netflix Stock Stands Heading Into Black Friday

Latest price & trading action. Netflix closed Wednesday at $106.14, up about 1.7% on the day, with an intraday high of $106.95 and volume of roughly 28 million shares, below its recent average near 40 million. ^[3] After‑hours quotes on MarketWatch showed the stock drifting slightly lower to around $105.95. ^[4]
Size & performance. At this price, Netflix carries a market value of about $450 billion and has gained roughly 21–22% over the past 12 months, outpacing major benchmarks such as the Dow Jones Industrial Average, according to Trefis, Finviz and recent commentary from Zacks and Barchart highlighting that NFLX has “surpassed market returns” and outperformed the Dow in 2025. ^[5]
Valuation remains rich. Multiple data providers peg Netflix’s trailing price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio around 44x and its forward P/E in the mid‑30s, with a price‑to‑sales ratio near 10–11x—several times the media‑industry median. ^[6] A Reuters summary of the stock‑split announcement noted Netflix trading at a P/E near 46x, versus roughly 18x for Walt Disney and 7x for Comcast, underscoring the premium investors are paying for its growth and profitability profile. ^[7]

That elevated valuation helps explain why the market reacted so sharply to Netflix’s most recent earnings “miss,” even though underlying growth remains robust.

Q3 2025: Double‑Digit Growth, but a Brazil Tax Bill Spooked Investors

Netflix reported Q3 2025 revenue of $11.51 billion, up 17.2% year over year and broadly in line with Wall Street expectations and its own guidance. ^[8]

However, earnings per share came in at $5.87, below consensus forecasts around $6.96, marking the company’s first EPS miss since early 2024. ^[9]

The culprit was not weakening demand but a one‑off $619 million tax expense tied to an ongoing dispute with Brazilian authorities, which dragged the operating margin down to 28%, versus guidance of 31.5%. ^[10] Netflix emphasized in its shareholder letter and on the earnings call that, excluding this tax charge, margins would have exceeded the forecast, and that it does not expect the case to materially affect future results. ^[11]

Other key takeaways from Q3:

Healthy engagement. Netflix said it achieved its highest‑ever share of TV viewing time in both the U.S. and U.K., with viewing time up mid‑teens to low‑20s percent since late 2022, helped by hit titles like Wednesday season two, KPop Demon Hunters and the Canelo vs. Crawford boxing match. ^[12]
Regional breadth. Revenue grew 17% in the U.S. and Canada, 18% in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, low double‑digits in Latin America, and over 20% in Asia‑Pacific, underscoring Netflix’s global scale. ^[13]
Cash flow strength. Q3 net income was about $2.55 billion, up 8% year‑on‑year, and free cash flow for the quarter exceeded $2.6 billion, keeping Netflix on track for roughly $9 billion in free cash flow for 2025. ^[14]

Despite the solid top‑line and cash‑flow story, Netflix shares fell roughly 5–6% in after‑hours trading on the day of the report and went on to drop double‑digits in the following sessions, as investors reacted to the margin miss and tried to parse whether it signaled a broader slowdown. ^[15]

Interestingly, major shareholders such as Sands Capital framed the move more as “profit‑taking” after a strong first half than as a fundamental deterioration, noting that Netflix actually raised full‑year 2025 revenue guidance by about $700 million at the high end and nudged its operating‑margin outlook up to 30%. ^[16]

10‑for‑1 Stock Split: Cosmetic Change, Real Attention

Another big headline for Netflix investors this month was the 10‑for‑1 forward stock split.

On October 30, Netflix’s board approved the split, with a record date of November 10 and distribution of nine additional shares for every share held at the close on November 14. The stock began trading on a split‑adjusted basis on November 17. ^[17]
Pre‑split, Netflix traded above $1,100 per share; post‑split it opened around $111, prompting sensational headlines about a “90% crash” even though the company’s market value was unchanged. Several explainer pieces from Yahoo Finance and other outlets stressed that the apparent collapse was purely mechanical. ^[18]
Reuters and Business Insider both emphasized that the split’s real goal was to make shares more accessible to employees and retail investors, not to alter fundamentals—although such moves often spark additional trading interest and can provide a short‑term psychological boost. ^[19]

So far, the post‑split story has been more about volatility than euphoria: NFLX remains below the mid‑$110s levels seen shortly after the split, and JPMorgan recently trimmed its price target from $127.50 to $124, citing concerns about engagement trends and streaming‑industry consolidation while maintaining a neutral rating. ^[20]

Ad‑Supported Tier: 190 Million Viewers and a Growing Revenue Engine

A key part of the Netflix bull case now hinges on its advertising business, which has quickly moved from experiment to serious growth driver.

New reach metric. Earlier this month, Netflix unveiled a new way of reporting ad reach—monthly active viewers—and disclosed that its ad‑supported tier now reaches 190 million monthly active viewers globally, three years after launch. ^[21] The metric counts anyone who has watched at least a minute of ad‑supported content, adjusted for household co‑viewing, giving advertisers a better sense of total eyeballs.
Ad share of viewing. Comscore data cited by Marketing Brew shows that Netflix’s ad‑supported plan now accounts for about 45% of U.S. viewing hours on the service, up from 34% in 2024, highlighting rapid adoption of cheaper, ad‑backed plans. ^[22]
Revenue growth. Analysts at eMarketer/Insider Intelligence estimate that Netflix’s ad revenue will grow nearly 50% year‑on‑year in 2025 to around $2.07 billion, making it the fastest‑growing player among the top five U.S. digital ad platforms and potentially putting it on track to surpass Hulu’s ad business by 2027. ^[23]
Product pipeline. Netflix is testing interactive video ads, dynamic ad insertion around events like WWE programming and upcoming NFL Christmas Day games, and plans to roll out advanced audience‑targeting tools for advertisers across major markets in 2026. ^[24]

On the Q3 call, management said it had its best quarter ever for ad sales and expects ad revenue to more than double this year, positioning advertising as a steadily larger share of Netflix’s overall growth story. ^[25]

Content Momentum and the “Stranger Things” Outage

Content remains Netflix’s ultimate moat—and its latest tentpole release is already making waves in more ways than one.

Stranger Things as a franchise. MarketWatch reporting cited by several data providers estimates that the Stranger Things universe has already generated at least $1 billion in value for Netflix, with the newly released fifth and final season projected to add another ~$200 million. ^[26]
Q4 slate. In its shareholder letter, Netflix highlighted a stacked year‑end lineup including the final season of Stranger Things, new seasons of The Diplomat and other prestige series, Guillermo del Toro’s take on Frankenstein, Rian Johnson’s Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, and more live events such as NFL Christmas Day games. ^[27]
Temporary crash, fast recovery. On Wednesday evening, Netflix suffered a brief outage in the U.S. coinciding with the “Stranger Things” season‑five premiere, with Downdetector reports peaking above 14,000. Netflix said the issue primarily affected TV devices and that service was restored for all users within minutes, a timeline echoed in Gurufocus and other reports. ^[28]

While such high‑profile glitches can create social‑media backlash, there is no immediate evidence that the outage will have a lasting impact on subscriber behavior—especially given how quickly it was resolved and the enormous interest in the final season, which has already pushed earlier seasons back into Netflix’s global top‑10 rankings. ^[29]

Analyst Sentiment: “Moderate Buy” With Upside, but Not Without Worries

Wall Street’s view on Netflix heading into the Black Friday session can best be described as cautiously optimistic:

A recent MarketBeat roundup notes that across brokers, Netflix carries an overall “Moderate Buy” rating, with two “Strong Buy,” around 30 “Buy,” a dozen “Hold” and a single “Sell” recommendations, and an average price target of about $133.93—roughly 25–30% above current levels. ^[30]
Several firms have tweaked targets lower after Q3. Wedbush cut its target from $150 to $140 but kept an “outperform” rating; JPMorgan edged its target down to $124 and Barclays set a post‑split target near $110, citing concerns about competition, potential media‑industry mergers, and how Netflix measures and monetizes its ad‑tier audience. ^[31]
Hedge‑fund letters such as Sands Capital’s continue to highlight Netflix as a core growth holding, arguing that the company’s improved revenue guidance, margin profile and engagement metrics still support a premium multiple, even if second‑half margin expansion looks more modest than 2024’s surge. ^[32]

At the same time, valuation‑focused research from groups like AAII flags Netflix as expensive relative to industry peers, pointing to a price‑to‑sales multiple more than ten times the media‑sector median. ^[33] That tension between growth and valuation is likely to keep NFLX sensitive to any hint of slowing momentum.

Other Storylines to Watch on November 28, 2025

Heading into tomorrow’s open and the shortened session, several additional threads could influence Netflix’s trading tone:

Warner Bros. Discovery auction drama. Warner Bros. Discovery has reportedly asked potential buyers—including Netflix, Paramount Skydance and Comcast—to return with improved bids for key assets like its movie and TV studios and streaming service. ^[34] Any sign that Netflix is seriously considering a large acquisition could spark debate about integration risk and capital allocation, given management’s long‑stated preference for organic growth.
Macro backdrop and thin liquidity. Market commentary heading into the holiday pointed to modestly higher U.S. futures and optimism about potential Federal Reserve rate cuts, even as trading volumes are expected to be subdued in Friday’s half‑day session. ^[35] High‑beta growth names like Netflix often see outsized moves in low‑liquidity environments.
Ad‑tier data and advertiser sentiment. With Netflix’s new “monthly active viewers” metric and 190 million‑viewer claim now public, advertisers and analysts will be parsing any incremental color on campaign performance, interactive ad tests and new targeting features. ^[36]
Technical picture and sentiment pieces. Recent articles from Zacks and Barchart stress that Netflix has outperformed the Dow and broader market this year, while Barron’s has highlighted communication‑services stocks, including NFLX, as key contributors to a potential strong year‑end finish. ^[37] These narratives can feed momentum‑driven flows, especially when fundamentals appear stable.

Bottom Line for NFLX Before the Bell

Going into the November 28, 2025 Black Friday session, Netflix stock sits at the intersection of strong fundamentals and elevated expectations:

Revenue and engagement are growing at a healthy double‑digit clip.
The ad‑supported tier is scaling quickly, with 190 million monthly active viewers and ambitious plans for targeting and interactive formats.
Free cash flow is robust, and management has nudged full‑year revenue and margin guidance higher despite the Brazil tax hit.
At the same time, NFLX trades at a premium valuation, has just weathered a noisy earnings miss, and faces new questions about competition, possible big‑ticket acquisitions and platform reliability following the Stranger Things outage.

For short‑term traders, tomorrow’s shortened, post‑holiday session could bring outsized swings on relatively small headlines. For longer‑term investors, the more important questions are whether Netflix can sustain high‑teens revenue growth, expand margins toward 30%+ and turn its expanding ad business and content slate into durable, compounding cash flow over the next several years.

Either way, NFLX is likely to remain one of the most closely watched names on the tape as markets reopen on Black Friday.

Disclaimer: This article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendation or an offer to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.

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