Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW) Jumps on JPMorgan Upgrade – Share Price, Outlook and All Key News on 28 November 2025

Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares are back in the spotlight today, 28 November 2025, as the supermarket giant outperforms a soft Australian sharemarket.

As of this afternoon, Woolworths’ share price is trading around A$29.2–29.3, up roughly 3% for the session, after opening near A$28.64 and trading in a range that has pushed towards the high A$29s. ^[1]

That move comes on the heels of a JPMorgan upgrade from Neutral to Overweight with a higher price target of A$31.00 (up from A$29.50), citing improving sales momentum and better execution under new commercial leadership. ^[2]

At the index level, the S&P/ASX 200 dipped modestly today, but Woolworths was highlighted as one of the names bucking the trend in coverage of “ASX’s modest fall; Woolworths rises, banks retreat”, with analysts noting the stock’s strength alongside the broader market’s pause after the US Thanksgiving break. ^[3]

Woolworths share price today: WOW outperforms a quiet ASX

Woolworths’ own investor site shows a live share price of A$29.25, with an intraday high near A$29.33 and low around A$28.64 as of early afternoon AEST. ^[4]

Independent market data platforms report a very similar picture:

Investing.com quotes a current price around A$29.32 for WOW, with the stock up just over 3% versus Thursday’s close of A$28.40. ^[5]
A Yahoo Finance market calendar entry lists WOW at A$29.16, up about 2.7% intraday. ^[6]

Taken together, these feeds point to a solid 3% rally, pushing WOW close to the upper end of its recent trading band and back towards the top of its three‑month technical range around A$29.30. ^[7]

In early trade, Australian media and overseas market wraps alike pointed out that while the ASX 200 slipped around 0.2%, supermarket heavyweight Woolworths was among the stocks moving higher against the tide, helped by fresh broker support. ^[8]

What’s driving today’s Woolworths rally?

JPMorgan’s upgrade and higher price target

The clearest catalyst for today’s price action is the JPMorgan upgrade published on 27 November 2025. The broker:

Lifted its rating on Woolworths Group Limited (ASX: WOW) from Neutral to Overweight
Raised its price target from A$29.50 to A$31.00
Highlighted improved sales momentum under new commercial leadership
Noted that Woolworths’ like‑for‑like sales growth gap versus rival Coles has narrowed, after Woolworths had lagged earlier in the year ^[9]

JPMorgan credited Woolworths’ focus on impulse categories, promotional activity, and loyalty‑driven campaigns (including online offers and high–low pricing) for giving what it described as a short‑term “sugar hit” to sales ahead of supply‑chain disruptions cycling through late 2025. ^[10]

That upbeat reassessment by a global investment bank has been widely referenced in market coverage this morning, with the Australian Financial Review explicitly linking the day’s gain in WOW to the new Overweight call. ^[11]

Defensive rotation and retail investors’ attention

Beyond the broker move, sentiment towards Woolworths has clearly shifted from the deep pessimism seen after its FY25 results.

Several commentary pieces published today have pulled WOW back into the retail‑investor conversation:

Kalkine Media listed A2 Milk and Woolworths Group shares as “key ASX stocks capturing investor attention”, emphasising the appeal of dependable earnings and dividends in an environment of lingering economic uncertainty. ^[12]
Rask Media likewise highlighted A2M and WOW as two ASX shares to watch, noting that both names are front‑of‑mind for investors looking ahead to 2026. ^[13]
A separate Motley Fool Australia article released today – “3 ASX stocks I’d trust with $10,000 for the next decade” – includes Woolworths alongside two other blue‑chip names, describing WOW as a defensive holding backed by a leading supermarket franchise and steady demand. ^[14]
Another Fool article published this morning on how to position a portfolio before the RBA resumes interest‑rate hikes explicitly points to Woolworths Group Ltd (ASX: WOW) shares as an example of a more defensive exposure, in contrast to more cyclical holdings that might be trimmed. ^[15]

The common thread: investors and commentators are re‑framing WOW as a quality, defensive stock that can potentially withstand higher rates and subdued consumer confidence—provided management executes on cost control and price perception.

From August shock to November recovery

Today’s optimism is a sharp contrast to the brutal reaction to Woolworths’ FY25 results just three months ago.

On 27 August 2025, Woolworths reported a 19% slump in underlying profit, sparking a double‑digit share price fall on the day. ABC’s markets live blog recorded WOW shares down more than 13% to around A$29.01 at one point, taking them to their lowest level in over six years, apart from a brief dip earlier in 2025. ^[16]

Around the same time:

Motley Fool Australia detailed how Woolworths shares plunged 12% on the FY25 result, as the market digested weaker supermarket earnings, softer margins and lingering reputational issues. ^[17]
Yahoo Finance followed up with an article explaining that Woolworths missed analyst estimates, prompting further downgrades and a reassessment of growth expectations. ^[18]
Sector commentary on platforms like TheBull described WOW as testing its 52‑week low amid profit concerns and analyst cuts. ^[19]

Valuation analysts have since noted that the share price weakness forced the market to confront how much investors were paying for Woolworths’ defensive status. Simply Wall St pointed out that WOW’s earlier rebound — roughly 8% off the lows — still left the stock trading on a premium valuation relative to many other consumer retail names. ^[20]

Q1 FY26 sales and the shift in narrative

The company’s Q1 FY26 sales announcement, released to the ASX on 29 October 2025, was an important checkpoint. While the detailed sales numbers sit in the underlying documents, the investor site confirms the timing of the F26 Q1 sales update and associated investor briefing. ^[21]

JPMorgan’s research note this week explicitly ties its more positive stance to recent sales trends, arguing that Woolworths is starting to close the gap with Coles on like‑for‑like supermarket growth. ^[22]

Put simply:

August: markets focused on the profit slump, underpayment provisions and political scrutiny.
Late October & November: attention has shifted towards stabilising sales, improving execution and the prospect of less downside risk now that much of the bad news appears priced in.

Fundamentals snapshot: earnings, dividends and valuation

Despite the week‑to‑week noise, Woolworths remains a large, mature cash‑generating business.

According to Reuters’ summary of the company’s latest full‑year numbers for FY25: ^[23]

Revenue: about A$69.1 billion
Gross profit: around A$18.8 billion
Net income: roughly A$963 million, down sharply from FY23 and FY24 levels

That translates into a net profit margin of about 1.4%, reflective of the thin margins typical in supermarket retailing and the pressure Woolworths has faced from wage inflation, competition and remediation costs.

Dividend profile

On the income side, Woolworths has continued to pay fully franked dividends:

In 2025, the company paid interim and final dividends of A$0.39 and A$0.45 per share respectively, for a total of A$0.84. ^[24]
Market data providers such as Barchart list a forward annual dividend of about A$0.96 per share, implying a yield close to 3% at current prices. ^[25]

At a share price around A$29.3, those numbers suggest:

A trailing yield just under 3%, based on FY25 dividends
A forward yield slightly above that, assuming modest growth or a return to a more normal payout trajectory

Valuation: still a “quality at a price” story

Using Barchart’s trailing price/earnings ratio of roughly 36x, investors are clearly paying a premium for Woolworths’ perceived safety and dominant market position. ^[26]

Independent valuation pieces:

Rask Media has questioned whether Woolworths offers good value in 2025, pointing to the combination of modest growth, regulatory risk and a relatively rich multiple. ^[27]
Simply Wall St notes that while the share price has moved closer to analysts’ fair‑value estimates, the stock is still not obviously “cheap” compared with sector peers. ^[28]

Today’s 3% rally nudges that valuation higher again. For long‑term investors, the key question is whether Woolworths can rebuild earnings growth fast enough to justify staying on a high‑20s to mid‑30s PE multiple in a world of higher interest rates.

Technical picture: breakout above a tight range

Before today’s move, technicians largely saw Woolworths as a range‑bound “hold”:

StockInvest’s technical commentary earlier this week described WOW trading at the upper part of a horizontal trend, with a 90% probability range of A$26.69 to A$29.29 over the next three months. ^[29]
The same report suggested that a break above roughly A$28.73 could trigger a stronger buy signal and a potential trend shift, while also noting mixed signals from momentum indicators such as MACD. ^[30]

With Friday’s price pushing into and slightly above that projected upper band near A$29.30, today’s trade effectively challenges the idea that Woolworths is stuck in a tight sideways channel. ^[31]

From a chart‑based perspective, that:

Validates the recent bullish break above resistance
Suggests that any pull‑back towards A$28–28.50 may now be watched as potential support
Reinforces the sense that fundamental news (JPMorgan’s upgrade and improving sales) is driving price action more than short‑term technical caution

Technical services like StockInvest still characterise WOW as a “hold/accumulate” rather than a high‑conviction buy, highlighting low day‑to‑day volatility but warning about the overhang from earlier pivot‑top sell signals. ^[32]

Regulatory and reputational backdrop: underpayments, price scrutiny and penalties

Behind today’s share price bounce sits a heavy regulatory and reputational backdrop that investors cannot ignore.

Underpayment ruling and remediation costs

On 8 September 2025, Woolworths issued an ASX update on underpayments proceedings following a Federal Court decision relating to historical underpayments of salaried store leaders under the General Retail Industry Award. ^[33]

In that statement, the group estimated that:

The one‑off additional impact of the Court’s findings could be between A$180 million and A$330 million post‑tax (A$250–470 million pre‑tax)
Interest, superannuation and payroll tax could add another A$140–200 million post‑tax, taking the total potential additional liability into the A$320–530 million post‑tax range

Industry commentary in trade press and retail news outlets notes that the decision could drive “significant and widespread changes” to accepted rostering and pay practices across large retailers, with Woolworths and Coles in the front row. ^[34]

This adds another layer of earnings drag and uncertainty, even as the market refocuses on sales recovery.

Political pressure on supermarket pricing

The regulatory screws are also tightening on pricing behaviour.

In October 2025, federal proposals to tackle supermarket “price gouging” floated the idea of penalties up to A$10 million for chains found to be exploiting customers, with Woolworths and Coles squarely in the political firing line. ^[35]

Earlier in the year, legal and competition‑law commentary detailed how the ACCC’s supermarket inquiry is keeping ongoing pressure on the structure of the industry – including practices such as land‑banking, lease restrictions and the treatment of suppliers. ^[36]

From an investor lens, this political and regulatory environment means:

Margins are under constant scrutiny
The ability to pass on cost inflation is constrained
Regulatory shocks (such as further underpayment findings or tougher pricing rules) remain a material downside risk

Brand risk and day‑to‑day headlines

Separate from regulation, Woolworths occasionally finds itself in uncomfortable front‑page stories that can nick its carefully nurtured brand, even if the financial impact is minor.

One example surfaced today in Victoria: a store in a Melbourne shopping centre at Doreen reportedly went into lockdown after a machete fight, generating fresh headlines around safety and in‑store incidents. ^[37]

Events like this tend not to move the share price directly, but they feed into the broader narrative around customer experience, safety and community trust—an important intangible asset for a supermarket chain that depends on frequent, habitual visits.

How strong is Woolworths’ investment case after today’s move?

Taking all of today’s developments together, the picture for Woolworths Group (ASX: WOW) on 28 November 2025 looks something like this:

Near‑term momentum:
- Share price up about 3% today and well off August lows, driven by JPMorgan’s upgrade and renewed interest in defensive large caps. ^[38]
Business fundamentals:
- A A$69 billion‑plus revenue base with thin but stable margins, modest growth and high cash generation. ^[39]
Income profile:
- An implied dividend yield around 3%, fully franked, with a long record of regular payouts. ^[40]
Valuation:
- A mid‑30s PE multiple, still a premium to many peers and leaving less room for disappointment if earnings recovery stalls. ^[41]
Risk factors:
- Potential hundreds of millions in additional underpayment remediation and ongoing political focus on supermarket prices and competition. ^[42]
Market perception:
- A stock that is moving back into “quality defensive” territory for many investors, but with scars from a reputational rough patch and evidence that customers and regulators are increasingly sensitive to pricing and pay practices. ^[43]

For long‑term holders, today’s price action is encouraging in that it suggests the market is willing to look past the FY25 shock and underpayment overhang, provided sales momentum continues and the regulatory hit remains within the ranges already disclosed.

For prospective investors, the trade‑off remains familiar: high‑quality, defensive earnings and strong market position, but at a price that already discounts much of that quality.

Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW.AU) Deep Analysis #asx #woolworth