Macquarie Group (ASX: MQG) Edges Higher as Market Focuses on Qube Takeover and New Wind Power Deal

Macquarie Group Limited (ASX: MQG) shares were modestly firmer on Friday, 28 November 2025, as investors weighed ongoing news around the group’s A$11.6 billion bid for logistics operator Qube Holdings and a fresh 15-year renewable energy offtake deal linked to Macquarie-backed Aula Energy.

Macquarie share price today: MQG stabilises after recent slide

By early Friday trade, Macquarie Group stock was changing hands at around A$197.7, up slightly from Thursday’s close of A$196.50. The intraday range so far has been roughly A$195.2 to A$197.9, placing MQG near the upper half of today’s trading band. ^[1]

That follows a soft session on 27 November, when the stock slipped 0.43% from A$197.35 to A$196.50, its eighth decline in the past 10 trading days. ^[2] Over the last 12 months, Macquarie shares are down roughly the mid-teens in percentage terms and have traded within a 52-week range of A$160 to A$242.90. ^[3]

Despite today’s mild rebound, MQG remains well below its highs from earlier in the year, as the market continues to digest softer-than-hoped earnings and lingering regulatory headwinds.

Today’s news drivers: renewables offtake deal and Qube bid aftershocks

1. Macquarie-backed Aula Energy secures 15-year wind offtake

One of the key pieces of fresh news on 28 November is from Macquarie’s green infrastructure ecosystem.

Macquarie-backed Aula Energy has secured a 15-year offtake agreement with Snowy Hydro for 120 MW per year of output from the 256 MW Carmody Hill wind farm in South Australia. The deal covers close to half (about 47%) of the project’s generation capacity and brings Carmody Hill closer to a final investment decision. ^[4]

While Aula is not listed separately, it sits within Macquarie’s broader green investment platform. For MQG shareholders, this supports the long-term narrative that the group is leaning into energy transition assets with contracted, inflation-linked cash flows. It doesn’t typically move the stock sharply on the day, but it helps underpin sentiment around the quality and “future-proofing” of Macquarie’s infrastructure pipeline.

2. Qube takeover bid still shaping the story

Although the headline bid for Qube Holdings (ASX: QUB) was announced earlier in the week, its market impact is still very much part of today’s conversation about MQG.

Macquarie Asset Management, part of Macquarie Group, has lobbed a conditional A$11.6 billion offer (A$5.20 per share in cash) for Qube, a major player in Australian ports and logistics. ^[5]

Key deal points currently in focus:

The offer price represents close to a 28% premium to Qube’s pre-bid close. ^[6]
Qube shares surged to a record high around A$4.86 on 24 November, still below the offer price, signalling some market scepticism about timing, conditions and execution risk. ^[7]
Qube’s board has entered an exclusivity process and indicated support in principle for a binding agreement, but due diligence and regulatory approvals still lie ahead. ^[8]

Fresh coverage today from market commentators and retail-investor sites continues to highlight the bid as a transformative deal for Australian logistics and a potential long-duration earnings driver for Macquarie’s asset-management arm. ^[9]

For MQG, investors are weighing:

Upside: scale in core infrastructure, potential fee income and performance fees over time.
Risks: integration challenges, regulatory scrutiny, and the possibility of overpaying late in the cycle for infrastructure assets.

November backdrop: earnings miss, ex-dividend and share price pressure

Today’s relatively calm trading comes after a more turbulent start to the month.

On 7 November 2025, Macquarie reported first-half net profit of about A$1.655 billion, up 3% year on year but roughly 21% lower than the prior March half. The result landed below market consensus (around A$1.8 billion) and was followed by a meaningful share price sell-off. ^[10]

Key points from that result:

Profit growth was modest and driven unevenly across divisions.
Impairments and weaker performance in parts of the green-energy and infrastructure portfolio weighed on earnings. ^[11]
Regulators continue to scrutinise Macquarie’s risk and capital settings, feeding into a cautious market view.

In parallel, MQG has gone ex-dividend for its 1H26 interim dividend of A$2.80 per share (35% franked), with an ex-date of 17 November 2025 and payment due on 17 December 2025. ^[12]

The combination of an earnings miss, an ex-dividend step-down, and broader market risk-off sentiment has contributed to the stock’s recent underperformance versus the wider ASX benchmarks.

Analyst sentiment: cautious optimism with double-digit upside

Despite the share price softness, the sell-side remains moderately positive on MQG.

Current consensus data show:

12 analysts covering Macquarie Group.
A mean recommendation of “Outperform”.
An average target price around A$224–225, implying roughly 13–14% upside from a recent close near A$196.50. ^[13]

Recent broker commentary has highlighted:

Near-term earnings risk from market-sensitive businesses and higher impairments.
The long-term appeal of Macquarie’s diversified fee streams across asset management, infrastructure, green energy and commodities.
The importance of execution on large transactions such as the Qube bid and on project-level deals like Carmody Hill.

In short, the street largely sees MQG as fundamentally solid but cyclical, with current pricing reflecting a discount to long-run growth potential rather than a structural breakdown of the business model.

Valuation, dividends and what today’s moves might signal

At around the high-A$190s, Macquarie is trading at a discount to its recent average multiple, with the market building in:

Slower near-term earnings growth.
Higher regulatory and credit-cycle risk.
Uncertainty around capital deployment into large transactions.

The interim dividend of A$2.80 per share, on top of earlier distributions, keeps Macquarie firmly in the camp of income plus growth stocks on the ASX, though yields move around with the share price and payout decisions. ^[14]

Today’s modest gain, after several sessions of weakness, suggests:

Some bargain hunting from investors comfortable with short-term volatility.
Growing attention to the strategic optionality in Macquarie’s deal pipeline – both the Qube takeover and the renewables build-out represented by Aula’s Carmody Hill project.
A market that is still selective: price action remains muted rather than euphoric.

Key things for investors to watch after 28 November 2025

Looking beyond today’s tape action, the main watch-points around Macquarie Group include:

Qube transaction milestones
- Due diligence progress, any change in terms, and regulatory feedback will shape the market’s view of capital deployment discipline and deal risk.
Renewables and infrastructure execution
- Deals like the Snowy Hydro offtake for Carmody Hill show Macquarie’s green assets maturing toward contracted cash flows. Investors will track further offtakes, FIDs and returns across the platform. ^[15]
Earnings trajectory into 2026
- Whether the November half-year result proves to be a low point or the start of a more prolonged period of subdued profitability will be crucial for re-rating. ^[16]
Regulatory and capital considerations
- Any changes in capital requirements, enforcement actions or guidance from regulators could affect dividends, buybacks and growth capacity.

Bottom line

On 28 November 2025, Macquarie Group’s share price is stabilising around the high-A$190s as the market absorbs a mix of short-term earnings disappointment and long-term strategic moves in infrastructure and clean energy. The Qube takeover bid and Carmody Hill wind offtake give investors fresh storylines to weigh against recent profit softness and ongoing regulatory scrutiny.

For now, analysts still see double-digit upside potential, but the path there will depend heavily on how well Macquarie executes on its ambitious deal pipeline and navigates a tougher macro and regulatory environment.

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