BigBear.ai Holdings (ticker: BBAI) is back on traders’ radar today as the stock trades higher, fueled by fresh valuation debates, recent AI defense deals, and an upcoming shareholder vote that could reshape its capital structure.
BBAI stock price today: BigBear.ai extends its rebound
By midday on Friday, November 28, 2025, BBAI stock was trading around $6.3 per share, up roughly 5% compared with its last close of $6.02 on November 26, the final session before the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. [1]
Trading so far has been active. BigBear.ai shares have moved between roughly $6.04 and $6.44 intraday, according to multiple real‑time quote providers, confirming a continuation of the post‑earnings rally seen earlier in November. [2]
At current levels, the company’s market capitalization sits near $2.7 billion, with about 436 million shares outstanding and a 52‑week range of roughly $2.02 to $10.36. [3]
Despite sharp swings this year, BigBear.ai remains one of 2025’s more volatile AI names:
- The stock is up in the mid‑40% range year‑to‑date, depending on the data source. [4]
- One market‑cap tracker estimates its value has increased over 450% year‑on‑year. [5]
That mix of strong longer‑term gains and recent drawdowns is exactly what’s driving today’s flurry of fresh research on BBAI stock.
Fresh BBAI stock news and analysis on November 28, 2025
Several notable pieces of coverage on November 28, 2025 are shaping the narrative around BBAI stock today.
1. Simply Wall St: “Undervalued narrative” vs rich multiples
A new Simply Wall St note, published this morning, frames BigBear.ai through two conflicting lenses: momentum and valuation. [6]
Key points from that article:
- The stock’s year‑to‑date return is put at about 46%, with a striking three‑year total shareholder return above 500%, underscoring how explosive the name has been for early holders. [7]
- One of the platform’s “narratives” suggests BBAI’s fair value is modestly above its recent close (they reference fair value around the mid‑$6 range versus the prior $6.02 close), implying single‑digit percentage upside from fundamental models. [8]
- However, when Simply Wall St looks at price‑to‑sales (P/S), the story flips: they estimate BBAI trades at around 18× sales, far above an industry average near 2–3×, flagging the stock as potentially expensive on traditional multiples despite “undervalued” fair‑value narratives. [9]
In short, their takeaway: BBAI’s strategic moves and AI‑defense positioning might justify a premium, but the current valuation leaves little room for error if growth disappoints.
2. TipRanks: “Is BigBear.ai Stock (BBAI) Overvalued?”
TipRanks also published a fresh piece today, explicitly asking whether BBAI stock is overvalued after its run‑up. [10]
That analysis highlights:
- BBAI has gained more than 35% in 2025, even as concerns about an “AI bubble” swirl around the market. [11]
- The article calculates a P/S multiple around 6.6×, higher than the broader sector median and above the company’s own historical average, though still below better‑known peers C3.ai and Palantir. [12]
- TipRanks characterizes the recently reported third‑quarter results as “disappointing”, pointing to a 20% year‑over‑year revenue decline to about $33.1 million, largely due to lower volumes on certain U.S. Army programs. [13]
- On the positive side, the $250 million acquisition of generative‑AI platform Ask Sage is seen as a key growth lever, potentially boosting recurring revenue and deepening the company’s moat in secure AI for government and defense. [14]
Crucially, TipRanks notes an upcoming special shareholder meeting on December 1, where management will seek approval to double the company’s authorized share count from 500 million to 1 billion. The stated rationale is to increase financial flexibility for future capital raises, acquisitions and other corporate actions, but it also raises dilution concerns for existing shareholders. [15]
TipRanks’ bottom line today:
- Consensus rating: “Moderate Buy” based on one Buy and one Hold.
- Average price target: around $6.50, implying only high‑single‑digit upside from recent levels. [16]
3. MarketBeat: BBAI as one of today’s AI stocks to watch
MarketBeat’s “Best Artificial Intelligence Stocks To Keep An Eye On – November 28th” list singles out BigBear.ai alongside Upstart, SoundHound AI, Hut 8, Tempus AI, Fluence Energy and Ambarella as seven AI stocks to watch today. [17]
Their quick profile emphasizes that BBAI:
- Provides AI‑powered decision intelligence across national security, supply chain management and digital identity/biometrics.
- Sits inside a crowded but rapidly growing bucket of “AI stocks,” a label that spans chipmakers, software vendors and vertical specialists like BigBear.ai itself. [18]
The inclusion is primarily volume‑driven: MarketBeat notes that these names currently rank among AI stocks with the highest dollar trading volume, highlighting BBAI’s status as a liquid, actively traded AI small‑/mid‑cap. [19]
4. Margin pressure in focus
A separate note from Yahoo Finance today frames BigBear.ai’s core challenge in one line: margin pressure while scaling its generative‑AI ambitions. According to that analysis, the company has seen its gross margin contract by about 240 basis points since the start of 2025, underscoring how contract mix and investment in new capabilities are squeezing profitability. [20]
Taken together, today’s coverage paints a consistent picture:
BigBear.ai is attracting attention as a high‑beta AI defense play with real contracts and a swelling backlog, but investors are wrestling with compressed margins, execution risk and lofty valuation metrics.
Fundamentals behind the move: Q3 earnings, Ask Sage deal and Pahang Aerospace City
BBAI’s current trading action cannot be separated from its November 10 Q3 earnings release and a string of strategic announcements.
Q3 2025 results: top‑line pressure, but a stronger balance sheet
In its official third‑quarter 2025 press release, BigBear.ai reported: [21]
- Revenue of about $33.1 million, down 20% from roughly $41.5 million a year earlier, driven mainly by lower volumes on certain U.S. Army programs.
- Gross margin of 22.4%, compared with 25.9% in Q3 2024.
- A swing to GAAP net income of about $2.5 million, versus a $15.1 million loss in the prior‑year quarter — largely due to non‑cash changes in derivative liabilities linked to convertible notes and warrants.
- Adjusted EBITDA (a non‑GAAP metric) of around –$9.4 million, compared with a positive $0.9 million a year ago, reflecting both weaker gross margin and higher selling, general and administrative expenses.
- Backlog of roughly $376 million as of September 30, 2025, underlining long‑dated contract visibility, especially in defense and national security.
Despite the top‑line decline and negative adjusted profitability, management reaffirmed full‑year 2025 revenue guidance of $125–$140 million, a range that had already been cut from earlier expectations of $160–$180 million following contract disruptions discussed in prior quarters. [22]
Ask Sage acquisition: betting bigger on secure GenAI for defense
At the same time as Q3 results, BigBear.ai announced a definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage, a generative‑AI platform focused on secure distribution of models and agentic AI capabilities for defense, national security and highly regulated sectors. [23]
Key details from the company and subsequent coverage:
- Deal size: Approximately $250 million. [24]
- Ask Sage expected ARR: Around $25 million in 2025, representing roughly 6× growth over its 2024 recurring revenue, according to BigBear.ai’s press release. [25]
- Customer base: More than 100,000 users across some 16,000 government teams and hundreds of commercial clients. [26]
Management’s pitch is that integrating Ask Sage with BigBear.ai’s existing modeling, simulation and decision‑intelligence tools will create a single, secure AI platform designed for mission‑critical government workloads. [27]
However, analysts also caution that:
- The acquisition will not materially change 2025 financial results, with the company itself suggesting limited near‑term P&L impact. [28]
- Long‑term success hinges on BBAI’s ability to translate Ask Sage’s rapid ARR growth into sustainable, margin‑accretive revenue, rather than just scale low‑margin services. [29]
Pahang Aerospace City MOU: International expansion signal
On November 20, 2025, BigBear.ai announced a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with Easy Lease and Vigilix to support the development of Pahang Aerospace City in Malaysia, described by the company as Southeast Asia’s first AI‑driven aerospace hub. [30]
Under the MOU, BigBear.ai is expected to contribute:
- AI‑driven decision‑intelligence and data‑fusion capabilities for aerospace operations.
- Tools to help optimize logistics, maintenance and security across the planned hub. [31]
Today’s Simply Wall St piece explicitly links this Malaysia partnership with the Ask Sage acquisition as a driver of renewed investor enthusiasm — and as a reason its models show BBAI delivering outsized multi‑year returns for early shareholders. [32]
What analysts and models are saying about BBAI stock now
Across Wall Street and data platforms, opinion on BBAI stock is divided but generally constructive.
Price targets and ratings
Different aggregators show different snapshots, but a few broad themes emerge:
- StockAnalysis.com reports a “Strong Buy” consensus from the two analysts it tracks, with an average 12‑month price target of $7.00 and a range of $6–$8, implying roughly 10–11% upside from today’s ~$6.33 price. [33]
- MarketBeat’s forecast page shows a slightly more cautious picture: an average target around $6.33, with a high of $8 and a low of $4, suggesting little to no upside versus current levels depending on the intraday quote used. [34]
- TipRanks today summarizes the stock as a “Moderate Buy”, based on one Buy and one Hold, with an average target of $6.50, or high‑single‑digit percentage upside. [35]
All of these targets cluster in a fairly tight band, roughly $6–$8, reflecting a view that:
- BigBear.ai has real strategic assets in AI for defense and national security, plus a sizeable backlog;
- But the stock’s recent rally and elevated sales multiples may already price in much of that promise.
Valuation metrics
Valuation is where the debate intensifies:
- Yahoo Finance data places BBAI’s price‑to‑sales ratio around 13× on a trailing basis. [36]
- Simply Wall St estimates a P/S closer to 18×, well above an industry average near 2–3×, although methodologies differ. [37]
- TipRanks pegs the P/S at about 6.6×, still elevated versus sector medians but more moderate than some other estimates. [38]
The exact number depends on which revenue base and timeframe you use, but every major source agrees on one point: BBAI trades at a premium to typical software or defense contractors, a hallmark of high‑growth, high‑risk AI names.
Key risks BBAI investors are weighing
Today’s research pieces repeatedly circle back to a familiar risk list for BigBear.ai:
- Contract concentration and government exposure
BigBear.ai is heavily reliant on U.S. government and defense contracts, especially Army programs that have already driven revenue volatility and forced the company to cut its 2025 guidance earlier this year. [39] - Margin pressure and negative adjusted profitability
- Q3 2025 gross margin of 22.4% is meaningfully below the prior year’s 25.9%. [40]
- External analysis notes a roughly 240‑basis‑point contraction in margins since the start of the year. [41]
- Adjusted EBITDA remains deeply negative, suggesting that even with a strong backlog, the company is still in investment and build‑out mode. [42]
- Potential dilution from share authorization increase
The December 1 special meeting to double the authorized share count from 500 million to 1 billion is explicitly framed as a way to fund future growth, acquisitions like Ask Sage, and possibly further strategic initiatives. [43]
While that flexibility can help fund expansion, it also opens the door to significant future equity issuance, a clear overhang for current holders. - Execution risk on acquisitions and international expansion
Both the Ask Sage deal and the Pahang Aerospace City MOU expand BigBear.ai’s footprint — but integrating a fast‑growing GenAI platform and turning an MOU in Malaysia into high‑margin, recurring revenue are non‑trivial execution challenges. [44]
BBAI stock outlook: between AI hype and hard execution
Where does that leave BBAI stock on November 28, 2025?
- Near‑term trading: The stock’s roughly 5% gain today, following sharp moves around Q3 earnings, underlines its role as a high‑beta AI trading vehicle. BBAI responds quickly to news about contracts, guidance and the broader AI sentiment cycle. [45]
- Fundamental story: BigBear.ai now combines a substantial backlog, a capital‑heavy but cash‑rich balance sheet, and a pipeline of AI initiatives ranging from secure GenAI for defense (Ask Sage) to international aerospace projects (Pahang). [46]
- Valuation and risk: Across Wall Street, price targets cluster only modestly above where the stock trades today, while data platforms point to elevated valuation multiples, persistent margin pressure, and dilution risk tied to a much larger share authorization. [47]
For now, BBAI sits squarely in the “show me” phase of its AI story: the market has already rewarded the company for landing capital, signing high‑profile partnerships and pursuing bold acquisitions. The next leg of the move — up or down — will likely hinge on whether management can translate that positioning into higher‑margin, more predictable earnings without leaning too heavily on fresh equity.
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. BBAI is a volatile AI stock; anyone considering it should carefully assess their own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation, and consult a qualified adviser where appropriate.
References
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