December 25, 2025 — U.S. markets are closed for Christmas Day, but NVIDIA Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) investors have plenty to digest after a headline-heavy week for the AI-chip leader. NVDA last traded around $188.61 in the most recent session available (Christmas Eve trading), as investors weighed fresh deal news, shifting U.S.–China chip policy signals, and a coming spotlight at CES 2026. 1
What follows is a full roundup of the current NVIDIA stock news, analyst forecasts, and market analysis as of 25.12.2025—and what they may signal for NVDA into early 2026.
The biggest NVIDIA stock headline: Groq licensing deal (not a full acquisition)
The dominant story driving NVDA conversations into Dec. 25 is NVIDIA’s newly disclosed arrangement with AI inference startup Groq—a deal that looks less like a traditional acquisition and more like a strategic “acqui-hire + technology license.”
On December 24, 2025, Groq said it entered a non-exclusive inference technology licensing agreement with NVIDIA. As part of the agreement, Groq founder Jonathan Ross, Groq President Sunny Madra, and additional team members will join NVIDIA, while Groq continues operating independently under CEO Simon Edwards. Groq also said GroqCloud will continue operating without interruption. 2
Major financial outlets broadly corroborated the structure: headlines initially swirled around an eye-catching “$20 billion” figure, but reporting emphasized that the transaction is not a straightforward buyout of Groq as a company. Instead, it’s structured around licensing and the movement of key talent. 3
Why the Groq deal matters for NVIDIA stock
Strategically, the Groq move reads like a bet on the next phase of AI infrastructure: inference at massive scale.
- Training large AI models remains enormous business, but inference (serving models to users, agents, and applications in real time) is becoming the “always-on” workload that hyperscalers and enterprises want optimized for latency, throughput, and cost per token.
- Groq has positioned itself as inference-specialized, and NVIDIA’s willingness to license that technology while absorbing executive/engineering talent signals that NVDA wants to be the default platform not only for model training—but also for the sprawling, messy world of inference deployments across industries. 2
In other words: this isn’t just “NVIDIA vs. rivals.” It’s NVIDIA trying to own every layer of the AI factory—training, inference, networking, systems integration, and software.
China is back in play… with politics and approvals attached
The other major NVDA driver this week is geopolitics—specifically, whether NVIDIA can resume meaningful shipments of advanced AI chips into China.
Reuters: NVIDIA targeting mid-February 2026 H200 shipments to China
Reuters reported that NVIDIA aims to begin shipping H200 AI chips to China by mid-February 2026, using existing inventory for initial demand (reported as 5,000–10,000 modules, equating to roughly 40,000–80,000 chips), with expanded production and new orders expected to open later. 4
But there’s a crucial catch: the plan reportedly depends on regulatory approval, including decisions on the China side. 4
U.S. lawmakers push for transparency on H200 export licenses
In a separate Reuters report, senior Democratic lawmakers asked the U.S. Commerce Department to disclose details around any license reviews/approvals for H200 sales to Chinese firms—underscoring that even if policy “opens,” it may remain politically contested and operationally uncertain. 5
Why this matters for NVDA investors
For NVIDIA stock, China headlines are a double-edged sword:
- Upside: Any resumed shipments could reopen a revenue stream that has been constrained by export controls.
- Risk: The policy environment is unstable; approvals can be delayed, narrowed, reversed, or encumbered by conditions that reduce profitability (including fees/tariffs and compliance overhead). 4
Investors have seen how material this can be. Earlier in fiscal 2026, NVIDIA explicitly flagged export controls as a revenue headwind in its outlook. 6
NVIDIA fundamentals: record results, big guidance, and shareholder returns
While the week’s headlines were deal-and-policy heavy, NVDA’s stock narrative still rests on fundamentals—and NVIDIA’s most recent quarterly report remains the anchor.
In its Q3 fiscal 2026 results (quarter ended October 26, 2025), NVIDIA reported:
- Record revenue of $57.0 billion
- Record Data Center revenue of $51.2 billion
- Earnings per diluted share of $1.30 (GAAP and non-GAAP cited in the release)
- Q4 fiscal 2026 revenue guidance: $65.0 billion ± 2%, with gross margin expectations in the mid-70% range (per the company’s outlook section) 7
For stock-focused readers, NVIDIA also highlighted major capital return and payout details:
- $37.0 billion returned to shareholders in the first nine months of fiscal 2026 via repurchases and dividends
- $62.2 billion remaining under share repurchase authorization
- A $0.01/share quarterly cash dividend scheduled for December 26, 2025 (record date December 4, 2025) 7
These details matter because they influence how investors think about NVDA’s “maturity curve”: NVIDIA is still in hyper-growth mode in AI infrastructure, but it’s also now returning substantial capital—while maintaining a pipeline of huge R&D and ecosystem investments.
More December deal flow: Synopsys partnership and Intel investment clearance
NVIDIA’s Groq move didn’t happen in isolation. December has been marked by NVDA deepening its strategic web across the semiconductor and design ecosystem.
NVIDIA + Synopsys: strategic partnership plus a $2 billion investment
NVIDIA announced an expanded partnership with Synopsys that includes NVIDIA investing $2 billion in Synopsys common stock, alongside collaboration aimed at accelerating engineering and design workflows using NVIDIA AI and accelerated computing. 8
For NVDA stock, this type of partnership is less about next quarter’s chip shipments and more about a long-term play: making GPUs (and NVIDIA’s software stack) the default compute engine not just for AI model builders, but for the engineering world designing “everything else.”
Reuters: U.S. antitrust agencies cleared NVIDIA’s investment in Intel
Reuters also reported that U.S. antitrust agencies cleared NVIDIA’s investment in Intel, removing one regulatory uncertainty around that capital allocation. 9
NVIDIA stock forecast: what Wall Street price targets look like right now
Analyst targets move constantly, but as of late December 2025, “the street” remains broadly constructive on NVDA—with a wide range of views on how much upside remains after the stock’s massive multi-year run.
A widely cited consensus snapshot shows:
- Average (consensus) price target: about $262
- High target: roughly $352
- Low target: roughly $205 10
Separately, recent commentary has emphasized that some analysts see NVDA as relatively inexpensive compared with its growth profile and historical positioning versus semiconductor peers—though those arguments depend heavily on sustained AI data-center capex and NVIDIA executing on product ramps. 11
The important nuance for readers of “NVDA forecasts”
Price targets are not “prophecies”; they’re conditional models. For NVIDIA stock in particular, targets tend to swing with a handful of variables:
- Rate of hyperscaler spending on AI infrastructure
- Supply ramp success (packaging, memory, platform integration)
- Mix shift between training vs. inference and the profitability of those deployments
- Geopolitical access (China policy is the obvious wild card)
Technical and trading analysis: consolidation, moving averages, and key levels
On the market-structure side, several technical commentaries this week pointed to NVDA attempting to strengthen after a recent consolidation phase.
One recurring note: NVDA has recently traded back above its 50-day moving average, a commonly watched technical level that many traders interpret as a potential shift in near-term momentum (though it’s not predictive on its own). 12
Investor’s Business Daily also described NVDA as being in a multi-week consolidation with a cited buy point at 212.19, while noting the stock’s action relative to its 50-day line. 13
(Translation: many market participants are watching whether NVDA can build a base and break higher—or whether it chops sideways as the market waits for the next catalyst.)
Next major catalyst: NVIDIA at CES 2026 (official schedule now posted)
One of the clearest near-term events on the calendar is CES 2026 in Las Vegas, where NVIDIA and CEO Jensen Huang are scheduled for a major appearance.
NVIDIA’s official CES page promotes “NVIDIA Live at CES 2026 with Founder and CEO Jensen Huang” and lists the event during January 5–9 in Las Vegas. 14
The CES organizer schedule page lists a media-only NVIDIA press conference with Jensen Huang on Monday, January 5 (1:00 PM–2:30 PM) at the Fontainebleau in Las Vegas. 15
Why CES matters for NVDA stock (even though it’s not “earnings”)
CES has increasingly become a stage for NVIDIA to frame its narrative across:
- AI infrastructure and “AI factory” platforms
- Industrial AI and robotics
- Automotive compute
- (And sometimes) consumer GPU roadmap signals
Even when CES announcements aren’t immediately revenue-bearing, they can shape market expectations about NVIDIA’s product cadence and demand visibility—especially heading into a new year when investors are rebalancing portfolios.
Risks and pressure points investors are watching
A proper NVIDIA stock analysis on Dec. 25, 2025 needs to name the dragons, not just the treasures.
- Regulatory and geopolitical volatility: China policy can shift quickly, and the debate now involves not only export permission but licensing processes and oversight scrutiny. 4
- Competition (including “inside the customer”): Big cloud players continue investing in their own custom silicon, while AMD and other chipmakers keep pushing alternatives. The Groq licensing move itself is a reminder that innovation in inference hardware is accelerating. 2
- Execution risk on platforms: NVIDIA’s growth depends on shipping full-stack systems (GPUs, networking, software, racks). Any hiccups in ramping new architectures or configurations can ripple into sentiment—even if demand remains strong. 7
- Valuation and expectations: Some analysts argue NVDA still isn’t priced like a speculative bubble given growth; others argue the market price already assumes years of strong execution and that upside may be more sensitive to “small disappointments.” 16
Bottom line for NVIDIA stock on 25.12.2025
As of Dec. 25, 2025, NVIDIA stock sits at the intersection of three powerful narratives:
- Strategic expansion into inference (highlighted by the Groq licensing and talent move) 2
- A reopening—however conditional—of China-related opportunity, alongside renewed political scrutiny 4
- A fundamentals backdrop of record quarterly revenue, massive data center scale, and ambitious forward guidance—plus ongoing buybacks and a scheduled dividend payment 7
With CES 2026 days away, investors are effectively heading into the new year with NVDA still treated as a bellwether for AI infrastructure demand—while watching whether geopolitics or competition changes the slope of the growth curve.
