U.S. stock markets reopen for a regular full trading day on Friday, Dec. 26, 2025, following the Christmas Day closure—an important calendar detail because post-holiday sessions often bring lighter liquidity and headline-driven moves. [1]
For Palantir Technologies (NASDAQ: PLTR), the setup heading into the Dec. 26 open is a familiar mix: a stock with outsized momentum, big government and defense catalysts, and a valuation debate that hasn’t gone away. Below is what matters most going into the next session—news, numbers, forecasts, and the risks that can surprise traders at the open.
Market setup for Friday, Dec. 26: normal hours, but holiday conditions still matter
A key point for Friday: major U.S. exchanges are operating a normal session on Dec. 26, even after political headlines around federal offices closing. [2] The NYSE and Nasdaq holiday schedules also show the expected pattern: Christmas Day closed, followed by a regular session on Dec. 26. [3]
What that means for PLTR:
- The stock is coming off a shortened Christmas Eve session and a full Christmas Day closure, which can amplify reactions to any overnight headlines. [4]
- Price action may be more sensitive to pre-market news, because fewer participants can make moves look “bigger” than they otherwise would.
Where Palantir stock stands heading into the open
Palantir last traded around $194 as of the most recent data available from the Dec. 24 session/after-hours window.
Technically, Palantir has been trading like a leader: Investor’s Business Daily recently highlighted a cup-with-handle breakout with a buy point around 190.39, and noted PLTR reached a record high of 207.52 in November 2025. [5]
Translation: the stock is still near a key breakout area and remains prone to fast pullbacks if sentiment shifts—even if the longer-term trend stays bullish.
The most important fundamental update: Palantir’s Q3 results and Q4/FY 2025 outlook
The biggest “anchor” for Palantir’s current narrative remains its most recent earnings and guidance.
From Palantir’s official Q3 2025 earnings release filed with the SEC (for the quarter ended Sept. 30, 2025), key highlights included:
- Revenue:$1.181 billion (+63% year over year)
- U.S. commercial revenue:$397 million (+121% year over year)
- GAAP EPS:$0.18; Adjusted EPS:$0.21
- GAAP operating margin:33%; Adjusted operating margin:51%
- GAAP net income:$476 million
- Cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities:$6.4 billion [6]
Just as important: Palantir’s guidance.
- Q4 2025 revenue guidance:$1.327–$1.331 billion [7]
- Full-year 2025 revenue guidance:$4.396–$4.400 billion [8]
- Full-year 2025 adjusted free cash flow guidance:$1.9–$2.1 billion [9]
Reuters added context that Palantir’s Q4 revenue guidance was above the analyst average estimate (LSEG), and also emphasized the stock’s valuation sensitivity to any growth slowdown. [10]
The biggest “current catalysts” in late December 2025
1) Defense momentum: the Navy’s ShipOS program and what it signals
One of the most concrete recent catalysts is the U.S. Navy’s ShipOS initiative—an effort that, per the Navy’s own release, involves $448 million aimed at accelerating shipbuilding through AI and autonomy, leveraging Palantir software in the process. [11]
Defense-focused coverage has framed this as more than just another contract:
- Breaking Defense described the initiative as pushing Palantir’s AI tools deeper into shipyards and suppliers, explicitly tied to shipbuilding outcomes (including nuclear submarine production). [12]
- IBD characterized the deal as potentially significant relative to past programs and noted the market reaction when it hit the tape. [13]
Why it matters for Dec. 26:
- Government/defense wins tend to fuel the “durability” part of the Palantir bull case (multi-year programs, recurring workflows).
- They also raise expectations that future federal spending cycles could keep supporting growth—so any conflicting headlines can move the stock quickly.
2) Commercial AI narrative: NVIDIA partnership + “operational AI” positioning
Palantir’s late-2025 commercial AI story has been strengthened by a high-profile partnership with NVIDIA.
Reuters reported that NVIDIA and Palantir announced a partnership aimed at improving real-time decision-making in complex business areas such as logistics, with Palantir integrating NVIDIA chips and AI software into its platforms. [14]
NVIDIA’s own release positioned the partnership around “operationalizing AI” and decision intelligence. [15]
This matters because it connects Palantir’s pitch (“AI applied to messy enterprise data and decisions”) with NVIDIA’s infrastructure—helpful for winning executives who want AI results, not just models.
3) Data ecosystem strategy: Snowflake partnership for AI-ready pipelines
Another pillar: Palantir and Snowflake announced an integration partnership in October 2025 designed to connect Snowflake’s AI Data Cloud with Palantir Foundry and AIP. [16]
This kind of partnership is strategically meaningful because:
- It reduces “friction” for joint customers who already standardize on Snowflake.
- It supports Palantir’s attempt to be the layer where operational decisions and AI applications actually run.
4) Political and reputational overhang: UK scrutiny and immigration-related controversy
Palantir’s government adjacency also brings reputational and regulatory risk.
In the UK, The Guardian reported MPs questioning Palantir contracts after a Swiss investigation raised concerns about whether sensitive data could be accessible to U.S. intelligence due to Palantir’s U.S. status—claims Palantir disputed. [17]
In the U.S., reporting has put renewed focus on Palantir’s work connected to immigration enforcement. For example:
- Fortune reported on contract language suggesting work supporting a platform related to agencies that work with ICE. [18]
- The Washington Post reported that Palantir plays a key role in ICE-related systems and described internal and public criticism around that work. [19]
- Palantir has also published its own “About Palantir” explainer describing the scope and framing of its ICE contracting relationship. [20]
These issues can matter to PLTR shares because they can influence:
- The tone of public procurement discussions (especially outside the U.S.).
- Headline risk—investors sometimes reprice stocks quickly when political scrutiny intensifies.
5) Legal headline risk: trade secrets lawsuit
Reuters reported that Palantir sued former senior engineers, alleging they used confidential information to build a “copycat” firm (Percepta AI). [21]
For the stock, lawsuits like this are usually secondary to revenue growth and contract wins—but they can feed a narrative around competition, employee movement, and intellectual property protection.
What Wall Street forecasts are signaling right now
Revenue expectations: guidance is strong, but deceleration is watched
Reuters highlighted that Palantir’s Q4 outlook implies a slight slowdown in growth (from Q3’s pace), and noted that valuation makes the stock sensitive to any further deceleration. [22]
The company’s own guidance for Q4 revenue ($1.327–$1.331B) and full-year revenue ($4.396–$4.400B) remains the single most important “forecast” to anchor expectations into year-end positioning. [23]
Analyst price targets: a notable gap vs. where the stock trades
A striking feature of late-2025 Palantir coverage is how frequently analysts’ price targets appear below where the stock has been trading:
- MarketBeat lists an average target around $172 (based on its tracked analyst set). [24]
- TipRanks shows an average target around $187.87 (with its own tracked analyst sample). [25]
You don’t have to treat either aggregator as definitive, but together they underline a key reality: Palantir’s rally has outrun many target models, which can matter around year-end rebalancing and profit-taking.
Insider transactions: what investors should know going into Dec. 26
In December, Palantir’s CFO filed a Form 4 reflecting option exercise and sales executed under a prearranged plan (with details such as exercise price and sale price disclosed in the filing). [26]
Separately, a Palantir 10-Q filing earlier in 2025 described the adoption of Rule 10b5-1 trading arrangements by executives (context investors sometimes use when interpreting insider activity). [27]
Important nuance: insider selling is common at companies with significant equity compensation, and many transactions are plan-driven. Still, in a high-momentum stock, Form 4 headlines can sometimes spark short-term reactions.
Why retail flow matters for PLTR into year-end
Palantir is one of the stocks most associated with persistent retail buying.
Reuters reported that retail investors have expanded their influence in markets in 2025, and highlighted AI-linked names like Palantir among top picks. [28]
Separately, GuruFocus cited Vanda Research indicating retail investors were expected to have net bought nearly $8 billion of Palantir stock by the end of 2025. [29]
Why this matters into Dec. 26:
- Retail flows can provide a steady bid during dips.
- But they can also amplify volatility if sentiment turns, especially in thin holiday trading.
The valuation debate isn’t going away
Palantir’s valuation is central to the “what could move the stock tomorrow” question—because valuation affects how the market reacts to even small changes in expectations.
Reuters cited LSEG data (as of early November) showing Palantir trading at an extremely high forward earnings multiple compared with NVIDIA, and flagged “AI bubble” concerns in the broader market conversation. [30]
In practical terms:
- Bulls argue Palantir is building a category-defining “operating system” for enterprise and government AI decisions.
- Bears argue that even great execution may not justify paying for years of perfection upfront.
What to watch in the pre-market and at the open on Friday, Dec. 26
Here’s a tight checklist tailored to how PLTR tends to trade:
- Contract headline tape (defense and federal)
ShipOS is a reminder that Palantir can move on procurement news. Watch for follow-on reporting, expansions, or competitive contract awards that change sentiment. [31] - AI ecosystem headlines (NVIDIA / Snowflake adjacency)
Because the stock’s narrative is closely tied to operational AI adoption, anything affecting the AI supply chain or enterprise spend sentiment can spill into PLTR. [32] - Regulatory and political scrutiny headlines (Europe/UK, immigration enforcement)
These stories may not change quarterly numbers immediately—but they can impact the risk premium investors demand. [33] - Holiday liquidity + momentum levels
With a key technical level near the prior breakout zone, the stock can be prone to sharp moves in either direction when volume is thin. [34]
Bottom line before the Dec. 26 open
Going into Friday’s open, Palantir is still trading like a market “story stock” backed by real numbers: rapid U.S. commercial growth, high margins, and large government programs—all supported by its most recent SEC-filed results and guidance. [35]
But it’s also a stock where:
- valuation can magnify reactions, [36]
- headline risk is structural (government + politics), [37]
- and holiday trading conditions can exaggerate moves. [38]
This article is for informational purposes only and is not investment advice.
References
1. www.reuters.com, 2. www.reuters.com, 3. www.nyse.com, 4. www.reuters.com, 5. www.investors.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.sec.gov, 8. www.sec.gov, 9. www.sec.gov, 10. www.reuters.com, 11. www.navy.mil, 12. breakingdefense.com, 13. www.investors.com, 14. www.reuters.com, 15. nvidianews.nvidia.com, 16. www.snowflake.com, 17. www.theguardian.com, 18. fortune.com, 19. www.washingtonpost.com, 20. blog.palantir.com, 21. www.reuters.com, 22. www.reuters.com, 23. www.sec.gov, 24. www.marketbeat.com, 25. www.tipranks.com, 26. www.sec.gov, 27. www.sec.gov, 28. www.reuters.com, 29. www.gurufocus.com, 30. www.reuters.com, 31. www.navy.mil, 32. www.reuters.com, 33. www.theguardian.com, 34. www.investors.com, 35. www.sec.gov, 36. www.reuters.com, 37. www.theguardian.com, 38. www.reuters.com
