SYDNEY, Jan 21, 2026, 17:02 AEDT — The market has closed.
Fortescue Ltd (FMG.AX) shares climbed 1.7% to close at A$22.64 on Wednesday, recovering slightly after a weak period for iron ore-related stocks ahead of the miner’s upcoming production report. The day’s trading saw the stock fluctuate between A$22.13 and A$22.76. Meanwhile, BHP Group rose 1.5% and Rio Tinto added 2.6%. 1
This move is significant since Fortescue’s profits remain heavily tied to iron ore — the key steelmaking ingredient that fluctuates with China’s construction activity and changes in steel production. When iron ore prices drop, Fortescue typically takes a hit quickly.
Fortescue will publish its December 2025 quarterly production figures this Thursday, followed by its FY26 half-year results set for Feb. 25. For investors, these dates mark key milestones to assess shipments, costs, and guidance ahead of February’s earnings season. 2
The broader market slipped on Wednesday, with the ASX 200 closing 0.4% lower. Gains in materials, which jumped 2.7%, cushioned the fall, buoyed by rising gold prices and strength among miners, ABC reported. 3
Iron ore has been sending mixed signals recently. On Monday, futures dropped to two-week lows after data from China revealed that new home prices continued falling in December, spotlighting the property slump that’s been weighing on steel demand. The most-active May contract on China’s Dalian Commodity Exchange closed down 2.6% at 794 yuan ($114.03) per metric ton. Meanwhile, the February benchmark in Singapore slipped to $104.7 a ton. 4
Safety issues surfaced as well. An explosion at a steel plate factory in China’s Inner Mongolia region left six dead and 84 injured, Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union reported in an exchange filing. The incident sparked worries over reduced output and potential safety inspections. According to Shanghai Metals Market, the blast might affect two blast furnaces, pressuring “hot metal” production—a rough gauge of blast-furnace steel output. 5
Miners are also facing fresh price pressure. This week, BHP revealed it has agreed to lower prices on certain iron ore sales as talks continue on 2026 supply deals with China Mineral Resources Group (CMRG), the state-backed buyer. RBC Capital Markets analyst Kaan Peker noted that these buying restrictions could “likely tighten spot availability and support the headline index price.” 6
Peers weighed in with mixed signals. Rio Tinto surpassed forecasts for quarterly iron ore and copper output on Wednesday. Barrenjoey analyst Glyn Lawcock described the results as “a solid quarter,” but noted softer iron ore prices and pushed for clearer guidance on the cost-cutting measures expected in February. 7
For Fortescue, the focus in the next session will be on volumes and guidance rather than big headlines. Traders are keeping an eye on whether China’s effort to secure better buying terms will widen discounts in the seaborne market—a risk that often reveals itself fast in actual prices.
But leverage cuts both ways. A weak production report, rising costs, or another drop in iron ore prices linked to China’s property woes could push the stock lower again. That’s especially true given the jittery sentiment around contract negotiations and output restrictions.
Fortescue’s quarterly production report, set for release Thursday, stands as the immediate trigger. Changes in shipments, costs, or guidance could quickly steer the share price over the coming weeks.
