New York, January 31, 2026, 16:23 EST — Market closed
- After a sharp, earnings-driven rally earlier in the week, Texas Instruments closed lower on Friday.
- Traders are weighing if concerns over rates, rather than chip orders, will dictate TXN’s next move.
- Next week’s U.S. manufacturing and jobs reports have the potential to shift semiconductor sentiment once more.
Texas Instruments shares closed Friday at $215.55, slipping roughly 1.6% on volume near 9.1 million. Despite the drop, the stock remains about 10% higher than Tuesday’s close, highlighting a swift pivot in investor focus from “recovery” to “rates.” Nasdaq
The pullback is significant since Texas Instruments now serves as a stand-in for a bigger issue: has demand for everyday chips really shifted, or are we facing yet another false start amid ongoing inventory clearing? How the stock moves in the next session might well dictate the tone for the entire week.
Texas Instruments remains a go-to gauge for factory demand, thanks to its sales in industrial and automotive sectors, beyond just consumer gadgets. This connection to the real economy proves useful when growth is stable, but it can backfire if macro data rattles confidence.
Inflation pressure intensified late in the week after U.S. producer prices jumped 0.5% in December, marking their largest increase in five months. Policymakers kept rates steady at 3.50%–3.75%, Jerome Powell confirmed. The report came amid markets reacting to President Donald Trump’s pick of former Fed governor Kevin Warsh to succeed Powell when his term ends in May. “This report validates the pivot of the Fed away from labor market risks back toward price stability,” said Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics. Reuters
U.S. stocks ended Friday in the red, with the Nasdaq falling roughly 0.9% and the S&P 500 slipping 0.4%. This kind of environment often spikes volatility in big, liquid chip stocks.
Texas Instruments kicked off the week with a bullish forecast, projecting first-quarter revenue between $4.32 billion and $4.68 billion and earnings per share ranging from $1.22 to $1.48 — both ahead of LSEG estimates. CEO Haviv Ilan highlighted a 70% surge in data-center revenue during the December quarter and announced the company will begin reporting data-center sales separately. Industrial revenue also climbed by “high tens” percent. Stifel analyst Tore Svanberg noted, “With the inventory correction that has plagued the industry during the last two years essentially complete, we believe the company is well positioned” to accelerate growth through 2026. Reuters
The company detailed its results and outlook in an earnings release submitted via a Form 8-K filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The bigger story is the AI data-center buildout, which is starting to boost more of the supply chain beyond just the top chip designers. Louise Dudley, a portfolio manager at Federated Hermes, noted, “Companies across the broader supply chain, by which we mean the buyers and customers of the major tech names, are reporting that conditions are improving.” Texas Instruments isn’t Nvidia, but it sells the power-management and signal-conversion components behind those racks. It now trades at about 31 times earnings, a bit higher than Analog Devices, Reuters reported. Reuters
The setup remains fragile. Should inflation prove persistent and hopes for rate cuts diminish, multiples could contract sharply. On top of that, a slowdown in data-center capital spending would hit suppliers of the infrastructure—not just the “brains”—quickly.
The next key data point arrives fast: the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing PMI, a monthly snapshot of factory activity, is out Monday, Feb. 2. Then on Friday, Feb. 6 at 8:30 a.m. ET, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics will publish the January employment report. The January CPI report follows on Feb. 11.
