Amsterdam, January 31, 2026, 23:46 (CET) — Market closed.
- After a volatile week and new analyst upgrades, ASML shares finished Friday on an upswing.
- Bulls highlight AI-driven demand and record-breaking orders; sceptics focus on capacity constraints and stretched valuations.
- Keep an eye on the February dividend and the annual report expected late in the month.
ASML shares in Amsterdam ended Friday’s session up 1.98%, closing at 1,215.60 euros. That puts the stock roughly 3% higher over the last five days, based on market data. (MarketScreener)
Markets are closed for the weekend, shifting focus to Monday’s open and the question of whether January’s momentum will extend into February. ASML stands out for many investors as a straightforward play on chip spending linked to data centres and AI, avoiding the need to choose between chipmakers.
The trade is looking crowded. Reuters noted the stock has jumped 34% this month and now trades at roughly 42 times 2026 earnings estimates after a volatile earnings reaction. Han Dieperink at Aureus said much of the good news “is already priced in.” According to the same Reuters story, ASML’s order backlog stands at 38.8 billion euros, with its extreme ultraviolet (EUV) machines—the tools used to print the smallest circuits—taking about a year to build. Degroof Petercam analyst Michael Roeg cautioned that upgrades might slow, a scenario that could make investors “question the risk-reward” on these high multiples. (Reuters)
Barclays fired up the market on Thursday by upgrading ASML to overweight. The firm highlighted record orders as reason enough for “material upgrades” to its estimates, according to a note cited by Visible Alpha. Analyst Simon Coles bumped his price target to 1,500 euros from 1,200, citing AI-driven demand and a higher 2026 revenue forecast. Meanwhile, ASML revealed plans to slash about 1,700 jobs. (Investing)
Other brokers have lifted their targets as well. Berenberg analyst Tammy Qiu bumped her price target up to 1,500 euros from 1,300, maintaining a buy rating, according to MarketScreener. (MarketScreener)
The real issue emerges when upgrades no longer drive growth. Investors have counted on ASML and peers like Applied Materials, Lam Research, and Tokyo Electron to navigate the capex cycle without depending on a single chip designer or foundry.
The downside scenario isn’t complicated. If orders take longer to turn into shipments, or if customers cut back on tool spending after a strong start, the stock’s valuation could suffer sharply. Renewed export tensions with China would only add to the pressure.
The company plans to release its 2025 annual report on February 25, with first-quarter 2026 results due April 15. (ASML)
Income-focused investors have a closer date to watch: ASML’s interim dividend goes ex-dividend on February 9 in Europe, and February 10 for U.S. shareholders. The payment is scheduled for February 18, per the company’s timeline. (ASML)
