London, Feb 2, 2026, 08:52 GMT — Regular session
- Shares climbed roughly 0.8%, touching a new 52-week high briefly in early trading
- Investors await a UK regulatory ruling on RIIO-3 licence changes, expected February 3
- Full-year results are set for May, followed closely by final-dividend dates
National Grid shares rose 0.8% to 1,244.5 pence Monday morning, having earlier hit a 52-week peak of 1,251p. The utility’s market cap stands near £61.8 billion, with a yield around 4.4%, following a roughly 27% rally over the last year. (London South East)
All eyes turn to Ofgem, set to release its decision on RIIO-3 licence amendments on Feb. 3. According to the regulator’s schedule, these licence changes will kick in when RIIO-3 launches on April 1. (Ofgem)
This matters because the price-control framework determines what regulated network companies are allowed to charge customers, along with the incentives and allowances tied to those revenues. For a stock that behaves like an income play, even minor tweaks in permitted returns can quickly shift sentiment.
National Grid held up well amid a more unsettled market. European shares slipped, dragged down by commodity-linked stocks as metals and oil prices tumbled sharply. The pan-European STOXX 600 was down 0.4%, with energy stocks falling 2% in early trading. (Reuters)
In December, National Grid outlined its position as licence drafting got underway. It noted Ofgem’s final decision for the upcoming RIIO‑T3 electricity transmission price control featured a “real” allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing. The company said it planned to share its response to the licence changes in early March. (National Grid)
Put simply, “real” means the return is shown after accounting for inflation. “Gearing” refers to the regulator’s assumed balance of debt and equity, which is important because it affects how much of the allowed return actually reaches shareholders.
The licence drafting is where the real details emerge: how incentives are structured, which costs get recovered and on what timeline, and the consequences if projects delay or exceed budgets. Investors usually skim the headline framework but dig into these mechanics.
Ofgem’s consultation on RIIO-3 licence changes is now listed as “closed (awaiting decision)” on its website, explaining why this week remains significant. (Ofgem)
There’s a risk, though. Should the final licence package ramp up incentives, cut back on spending recovery, or prove trickier to navigate, it might strain cash flow right as National Grid steps into a fresh regulatory cycle. Plus, rising bond yields tend to dampen appetite for high-dividend utilities.
After the regulator’s update, National Grid’s full-year results for 2025/26 are due May 14, according to its event calendar. The ex-dividend date for the final payout is set for May 28, with payments scheduled for July 23. (National Grid)
All eyes remain fixed on Feb. 3. Traders are poised to dig into the details from Ofgem and gauge how swiftly National Grid responds on whether the licence terms seem workable.
