New York, February 2, 2026, 18:13 EST — After-hours
- Palantir shares held steady in late after-hours trading, following a sharp initial reaction to the earnings report.
- The company reported Q4 revenue up 70% and set 2026 revenue guidance significantly higher than analysts expected.
- Investors are closely monitoring if soaring U.S. commercial demand can justify the high valuation.
Palantir Technologies Inc. shares edged slightly to $147.76 in late after-hours Monday, following a rollercoaster first response to its quarterly earnings and guidance. The stock ended the regular session up roughly 0.8% at $147.80, but in extended hours it swung between $144 and $161, with volume surpassing 71 million shares.
The print matters for more than just Palantir. It’s become a barometer for how quickly major U.S. institutions are moving from AI pilots to fully operational systems that generate revenue, and whether that spending holds up as tech budgets get squeezed.
The timing is tricky for high-multiple software stocks. On every earnings call, investors press the same point: deliver margins, prove cash flow, and skip the vague “platforms” talk.
Palantir posted Q4 revenue of $1.407 billion, a 70% jump from the prior year, alongside adjusted EPS of $0.25. The company projects Q1 revenue in a tight range of $1.532 billion to $1.536 billion. For the full year 2026, it expects revenue between $7.182 billion and $7.198 billion, with U.S. commercial revenue surpassing $3.144 billion. CEO Alex C. Karp highlighted Palantir’s “Rule of 40” score at an impressive 127% — a figure combining revenue growth and adjusted operating margin. SEC
The company reported a 137% jump in U.S. commercial revenue to $507 million, while U.S. government revenue climbed 66% to $570 million for the quarter. It closed 180 deals, each valued at $1 million or more, and recorded a total contract value—representing the potential lifetime value of contracts signed during the period—of $4.262 billion, marking a 138% increase from the previous year.
Denver-based Palantir highlighted its profitability, reporting GAAP operating income of $575 million with a 41% margin, alongside adjusted free cash flow of $791 million for the quarter. The company closed the year holding $7.2 billion in cash and short-term U.S. Treasury securities, it said.
The divide between commercial and government remains the pivot for traders. Bulls point to U.S. commercial growth as evidence that the company’s AI tools are expanding past their federal origins. Skeptics, however, focus on churn rates, deal stickiness, and the pace at which contract value converts into recognized revenue.
The stock’s wild after-hours moves showed the pressure. Palantir’s new guidance sets higher expectations for the remainder of the year, but it tightens the margin for error as the hype dies down and analysts refocus on the numbers.
Public scrutiny over surveillance-linked government contracts is another challenge. U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) deals have recently come under the microscope. Reuters reported that Capgemini plans to sell a small U.S. unit tied to an ICE contract following criticism. According to Jacob Bourne at eMarketer, Palantir’s government work remains crucial, with contracts “deeply embedded” in federal systems. Still, the company’s growth narrative leans more heavily on commercial expansion. Reuters
Investors will sift through the webcast and shareholder letter for clues on U.S. commercial demand, deal sizes, and the extent to which the 2026 outlook depends on government contracts versus corporate rollouts.
Next up: the cash session. Traders will watch to see if the post-earnings swings calm down once Nasdaq trading picks back up on Tuesday, February 3.
