LONDON, June 25, 2026, 09:17 BST
- Barrel flows through Hormuz are almost back to pre-war levels. Ship traffic, though, remains much lower than normal.
- Brent’s curve turned to prompt oversupply with stranded Gulf crude now making its way to market.
- Equity relief lands first for airlines. Tanker owners are still making gains on limited ship supply and route risks.
Brent’s second-month contract was 12 cents over the prompt barrel on Wednesday, flipping for the first time since the Iran conflict kicked off in late February. “Mini glut for now,” said Neil Crosby at Sparta Commodities. Bob Yawger at Mizuho said the Middle East’s “flood of oil” was being sold by traders. Reuters
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said about 72 ships, loaded with 20 million barrels of crude, moved through the Strait of Hormuz in the past 24 hours. “We have normal flows today,” Wright told the Reuters Global Energy Forum. He added, though, that full navigation won’t be restored until demining wraps up, which could take weeks. Reuters
More than 20 oil tankers with around 35 million barrels of crude have moved through the strait after the U.S. and Iran agreed to reopen it, according to Kpler data cited by CNBC. Reuters shipping data put three stuck tankers with 5 million barrels on track to exit Wednesday. South Korea’s maritime ministry reported that 18 of 26 vessels left stranded since the conflict began are still in the Gulf.
The amount of oil moving through Hormuz is key because it’s not a regular shipping lane. Nearly 20 million barrels a day of crude and products went through the strait in 2025, the International Energy Agency said. But export routes across Saudi Arabia and the UAE can only handle around 3.5 million to 5.5 million barrels per day.
Ship numbers still lag. Kpler data, via Reuters, said recent Gulf sailings are just above 25 a day—better than the 10 or 11 seen earlier, but well short of the 125 ships moving daily before the war began on Feb. 28. Reuters said 500 to 600 ships are still stuck in the Gulf, with up to 100 of those being tankers. The IMO’s evacuation plan, Reuters also said, doesn’t cover ships arriving for new oil cargoes.
Maersk (CPH:MAERSK-B) reported that the Maersk Baltimore and one time-chartered ship left the Persian Gulf after security checks late June 24 and early June 25. Three Maersk vessels remain in the Gulf. Out of 47,000 containers originally headed for the area when the conflict began, 44,000 have now been delivered and 3,000 are still waiting to complete their route.
Tanker rates haven’t adjusted for a full reopening. Daily rates outside Hormuz jumped to $190,500 from $106,500 the week before. VLCC earnings shipping Gulf crude through Hormuz got close to $470,000 per day, brokers and sources said. Clarksons (LON:CKN) called tanker supply “exceptionally tight.” Reuters
U.S. airline stocks outpaced the market on Wednesday, jumping 3% to 7%. American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL) closed up about 7%. United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL) gained close to 6%. Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL) added 3.7%. Jet fuel prices came off highs, dropping to $119.17 a barrel for the week to June 19 after topping $170 earlier, according to IATA data cited by Reuters. “Airline profits can shift fast because carriers have already sold many tickets assuming the previous fuel cost,” Morningstar analyst Nicolas Owens said. Reuters
LNG restarts are coming in phases. Between June 11 and June 22, seven empty QatarEnergy-controlled tankers entered the Gulf, the first time that’s happened since the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, data from Vortexa and Kpler show, according to Reuters. Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar said the shipments supported the view that QatarEnergy was on pace with its LNG ramp-up. Reuters reported there is still no sign of a broad return of empty Qatari and ADNOC ships to the Gulf.
Route risk hasn’t gone away. AP said the Liberian tanker Stoic Warrior tried a new IMO-backed route near Oman, but Iran’s Revolutionary Guard called it unacceptable and dangerous. AP also said Israel carried out an airstrike in southern Lebanon Wednesday, killing two people. It’s the first Israeli strike there since the latest ceasefire started Saturday.
Brent crude for August dropped $1.06 to $72.68 a barrel by 0639 GMT Thursday. WTI was down 76 cents at $69.58. Both are at their lowest since Feb. 27. Macquarie expects Brent to average $67 in the third quarter, and WTI at $62, versus $94 and $87 in the second quarter.
