New York, July 16, 2026, 14:06 EDT
The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SMH) dropped 4.2% to $565.69 in early afternoon trade. It went below Wednesday’s $586.09 lower DeMark pivot. This is a short-term support gauge.
The breach was clear. SMH fell $20.40 under support. That gap was larger than the full $18.51 span between Wednesday’s upper and lower pivots.
Breadth is the deeper investor signal. A first estimate uses VanEck’s June 30 weights. Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE: TSM) made up about 0.81 percentage point. That was just 19% of SMH’s fall.
The two holdings made up 26.84% of assets. About 80% of the loss came from other holdings and tracking effects. SMH’s top ten held 70.24% of assets. The selloff was broad.
The broad drop drowned out Taiwan Semiconductor’s strong report. Second-quarter revenue climbed 33.7% to $40.20 billion. Net income and diluted earnings jumped 77.4%.
Chief Financial Officer Wendell Huang said strong demand drove the quarter for leading-edge processes. TSMC forecast third-quarter revenue will range from $44.6 billion to $45.8 billion.
Yet TSMC’s ADR dropped 3.5%. The company raised its 2026 capital spending target to $60 billion-$64 billion. That is up from an earlier range of $52 billion-$56 billion. The move shows investors are testing returns on this next wave of spending.
iShares Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ: SOXX), the nearest listed peer, dropped more sharply.
| Metric | SMH | SOXX |
|---|---|---|
| Intraday price | $565.69 | $526.56 |
| Session change | -4.25% | -5.17% |
| 2026 NAV return through July 15 | +63.98% | +84.54% |
| Holdings | 26 | 30 |
| Expense ratio | 0.35% | 0.34% |
Intraday data showed the latest numbers at about 13:51 EDT. Issuer figures are from July 15. SMH holdings use June 30 data.
SMH beat SOXX by about 0.9 percentage point Thursday. Its 17.55% Nvidia weighting may have softened the drop. Nvidia dropped less than both funds.
Recent signals did not move together before the break. Zacks kept SMH at Rank 1, or Strong Buy, with momentum as one reason. A TradingView contributor cautioned that the March rally was close to vertical. The lower pivot on Wednesday did not hold.
SMH started Thursday with a 63.98% NAV gain for the year to date and $70.83 billion in assets. A rough compounding forecast suggests a 2026 gain near 57%. The trade is still profitable. It now offers less margin for error.
Risks go both ways. TSMC gave a stronger third-quarter outlook. That could bring back dip-buyers. A move back above $586.09 would ease Thursday’s bearish signal. Further selling under the $564.54 intraday low would make it worse.
For now, $586.09 marks the first recovery test. The $604.60 upper pivot is much more distant.
