NEW YORK, July 20, 2026, 07:02 (EDT)
- Intel is set to announce results following the close on Thursday. The early consensus indicates revenue at $14.4 billion, slightly above the projected midpoint guidance of $14.3 billion.
- The stock declined by 13.5% during the past week, ending Friday at $95.04. The semiconductor index dropped about 10%.
- Intel Foundry generated $174 million in external revenue during the first quarter, while it reported an operating loss of $2.44 billion.
Heading into Thursday’s results, Intel’s sales target is close to being met by Wall Street. The bigger challenge is if its manufacturing facilities are reducing expenses.
Preliminary Visible Alpha consensus estimates second-quarter revenue at $14.4 billion. This figure is just under 1% higher than Intel’s midpoint guidance. Simply exceeding sales expectations may not suffice.
U.S. markets were shut at the dateline. Intel finished Friday at $95.04, registering a 13.5% weekly drop. The chip index declined by about 10%.
Despite the pullback, Intel was still up more than 160% in 2026, while the PHLX Semiconductor Index maintained gains above 60%. Expectations continue to be high.
| Investor measure | Latest figure | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Preliminary Q2 revenue consensus | $14.4 billion | 0.7% above management’s midpoint |
| Q1 Foundry external revenue | $174 million | Accounts for 3.2% of Foundry revenue |
| Q1 Foundry operating loss | $2.437 billion | 14 times external revenue |
| Q1 Intel Products operating profit | $4.058 billion | Sixty percent of profit offset by Foundry loss |
| Q1 gross capital spending / operating cash | $4.963 billion / $1.096 billion | Capital outlays were 4.5 times operating cash |
The ratios are based on Intel’s disclosed data. They illustrate the importance of segment breakdowns over overall revenue numbers.
Intel Foundry posted segment revenue of $5.421 billion in the first quarter, with just $174 million generated from external customers. The majority of revenue continued to originate from manufacturing Intel’s internal product divisions.
External revenue increased by $143 million compared to a year ago. Intel said the primary driver of this growth was Altera’s transition to an external customer, which makes the customer-growth trend appear less robust.
Foundry reported a loss of $2.437 billion—14 times greater than its external revenue. The unit accounted for 60% of operating profit from Intel Products. Both figures are based on company disclosures.
The product segment remained robust. Revenue from Data Center and AI increased by 22% to reach $5.1 billion. Client Computing saw growth of 1%.
Cash acts as an additional control. Operating cash flow for the first quarter stood at $1.096 billion. Gross capital expenditures totaled $4.963 billion. Adjusted free cash flow, after financing support, was still negative at $2.016 billion.
Intel disclosed a €5 billion ($5.7 billion) investment in Ireland last week. The initiative accounts for roughly 30% of its expected capital expenditure for 2026. The majority of the effort is scheduled for completion by the end of 2027.
Intel Foundry executive Naga Chandrasekaran reported a “significant increase” in demand for Intel 3 wafers, attributing it to servers and artificial intelligence applications. The investment is expected to help maintain Xeon production, although it also raises the bar for returns. Reuters
Market sentiment is short on patience. Kathleen Brooks at XTB said investors might “get more impatient” if AI outcomes continue to show high spending. Intel’s results are likely to gauge these worries. Reuters
Investors are set to focus on four key figures Thursday: Foundry losses, external sales, gross margin, and capital expenditure. Intel projected a 39% adjusted gross margin as well as adjusted earnings of $0.20 per share.
Risks continue to be elevated. Robust demand for servers or a surge in foundry bookings could spark a significant recovery. On the other hand, poor yields, increased depreciation, or an additional decline in chip prices could amplify losses.
