NEW YORK, July 22, 2026, 12:06 EDT — U.S. cash equity markets begin trading.
- According to Kalshi, Democrats hold an 82% probability of winning the House, while Republicans are at 55% for the Senate.
- Competitor Polymarket shows a margin of less than one percentage point for both chambers.
- Kalshi’s trading volume for House-control is 2.7 times higher than its Senate-control volume.
Kalshi introduced its midterm election hub, where traders show higher confidence in the outcome for the House than for the Senate. This disparity in conviction highlights Senate control as the more significant policy risk for investors.
By midday, Democrats had an 82% probability of securing the House. The likelihood of Republicans retaining the Senate stood at just 55%.
The difference is significant. A change in House leadership appears largely factored in, whereas the fight for Senate control is still seen as a close contest.
The outcome of the November election will determine President Donald Trump’s ability to pass legislation during the last two years of his term. Varying results in the Senate could also impact the direction of confirmations and party-driven bills.
Live data indicated nearly matching projections on the leading platforms. On each chamber, Kalshi and Polymarket diverged by a single point.
| Control outcome | Kalshi chance | Kalshi displayed volume | Polymarket chance | Odds gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Democrats secure House | 82% | $22.21 million | 81% | 1 point |
| Republicans secure Senate | 55% | $8.35 million | 56% | 1 point |
House trading on Kalshi totaled $22.2 million, compared with $8.35 million for Senate markets—a difference of about 2.7 to 1.
The House market showed a party spread of 64 points, while the Senate spread was limited to 10 points.
Kalshi’s combined-control contract saw the likelihood of Democrats holding both chambers at 43%, compared to 39% odds for a Democratic House and a Republican-controlled Senate.
The four-point difference remains narrow, leaving Senate races as the main source of uncertainty regarding the eventual makeup of the government.
The hub integrates real-time prices, VoteHub polling averages and national fundraising figures. Users can also access historical outcomes, campaign updates and filters for specific races.
Tarek Mansour, co-founder and chief executive of Kalshi, stated that prices demonstrated convictions “backed by real money, not rhetoric.” Kalshi News
Kalshi reports that its platform is used by more than just active traders. According to the company, about 75% of users visit to review odds, and approximately 25% engage in trading.
Kalshi reports that approximately 90% of its preferred candidates have prevailed in races since 2024. This performance metric comes from the company and has not been independently verified.
Prediction prices differ from polls, as they represent invested funds, liquidity conditions, and the diversity of traders involved. Detractors argue that speculative investments or undisclosed information may impact these prices.
Risks: A judge in Washington on Monday halted Kalshi contracts in the state, intensifying a conflict between state and federal oversight. Meanwhile, the CFTC outlined two enforcement actions related to trading on improper or nonpublic information.
For investors, the message is apparent yet mixed. Control of the House appears largely determined, while the Senate continues to act as the key driver for policy.
