NEW YORK, July 26, 2026, 18:04 EDT — U.S. markets have ended the session.
- MSCI closed at $550.79 on Friday, marking a 12.4% decrease since July 17.
- Although asset-based fees made up just 27.2% of the total, they contributed 51.2% to annual run-rate growth.
- The midpoint for operating-expense guidance climbed by $45 million. The free-cash-flow midpoint went up by $15 million.
MSCI Inc ended earnings week at $550.79 per share. The stock dropped 12.4%, compared to a 0.6% decrease for the S&P 500.
The main investor concern is concentration, rather than slow growth. Over half of MSCI’s annual run-rate gains came from market-linked fees.
The business accounted for just over a quarter of the run rate. According to MSCI, run rate refers to the yearly total of recurring contracts and asset-based fees.
| Run-rate source | June 2026 | Year-on-year growth | Share of $373 million increase |
|---|---|---|---|
| Recurring subscriptions | $2.532 billion | 7.8% | 48.8% |
| Asset-based fees | $948.2 million | 25.2% | 51.2% |
| Total | $3.480 billion | 12.0% | 100% |
MSCI’s stated data are used for these calculations. Figures for shares could show minor discrepancies due to rounding.
Revenue for the second quarter was up 12.2% at $867 million. Adjusted earnings per share advanced 18.5% to $4.94. Asset-based fee revenue jumped 26.6%, while subscription revenue saw a 9.0% increase.
The shift in cost projections altered the discussion. MSCI increased its operating-expense forecast to a range of $1.535 billion-$1.575 billion, up from the previous $1.490 billion-$1.530 billion.
The midpoint rose by $45 million. In contrast, free-cash-flow guidance at the midpoint was raised by just $15 million. While this is not a margin projection, it highlights why the spending figures were notable.
MSCI shares dropped by 10.14% on Tuesday to close at $561.74, contrasting with a 0.89% rise in the S&P 500. The stock continued to decline in the following days.
Other business units did not match the Index segment’s performance. Analytics adjusted EBITDA declined by 5.0%, with its margin slipping to 46.5% compared to 52.1%. The Sustainability and Climate run rate increased by only 1.9%.
MSCI CEO Henry Fernandez described the outcome as a “record asset-based-fee run rate.” Fernandez noted that the company has introduced twice the number of products in 2026 compared to the total in 2024. MSCI Inc.
On Thursday, Singapore Exchange SGX:S68 struck a deal to back that expansion effort. The exchange intends to launch as many as 100 new derivatives tied to MSCI, initially introducing around 40 options and futures. No immediate financial impact was disclosed.
The drop in shares brought down MSCI’s valuation, while the stock continued to trade at a premium. MSCI closed Friday at 30.1 times trailing earnings. S&P Global NYSE:SPGI was at 27.0 times, with Moody’s NYSE:MCO at 29.9 times.
S&P Global is set for a peer test on Tuesday. The company will announce its second-quarter results at approximately 07:15 EDT, with a conference call scheduled for 08:30. Investors are expected to focus on index growth and expenditure comments.
Risks: A downturn in global equity markets would lower MSCI’s fees tied to assets, as these fees are based on associated assets and trading activity. Rising interest expenses, moderation in Analytics growth, and $6.4 billion in debt may further erode earnings leverage.
MSCI’s valuation has undergone a significant reset, though it remains unfinished. Future gains hinge on stronger subscription growth as management manages increased costs. The organic subscription run rate climbed 8.1%, with retention steady at 95.3%.
