HOUSTON, August 13, 2026, 12:18 EDT
- Intuitive Machines stock dropped 8.6% to $15.50 ahead of Thursday’s market open.
- Second-quarter revenue fell short of forecasts, and adjusted EBITDA turned negative.
- The maintained outlook requires a significant pickup in revenue growth during the second half.
Shares of Intuitive Machines Inc. NASDAQ:LUNR declined after the company’s second-quarter earnings fell short of analyst forecasts. The stock slipped 8.6% to $15.50 ahead of the market open. Revenue came in at $206.17 million, marking a 310% increase from the prior year but coming in below the consensus estimate of $216.3 million.
The main challenge lies ahead in the second half. Revenue for the first half reached $392.87 million. To meet the management’s full-year target of $900 million to $1 billion, the firm needs to generate between $507.13 million and $607.13 million in the last two quarters.
This equates to an average quarterly revenue between $253.57 million and $303.57 million. The range is 29.1% to 54.5% higher than the first-half’s quarterly average. This is the most evident challenge reflected in the unchanged outlook.
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q1 2026 | Q2 consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $206.17 million | $186.7 million | $216.3 million |
| Adjusted EBITDA | -$13.8 million | +$2.7 million | +$3.2 million |
| Backlog | $1.8 billion | $1.055 billion | Not applicable |
Profitability needs to improve. Adjusted EBITDA showed a loss of $13.8 million, falling short of the $3.2 million profit analysts had forecast. The figure was positive at $2.7 million in the prior quarter. This brought first-half adjusted EBITDA to a negative $11.1 million. Achieving full-year positive adjusted EBITDA will require second-half profit exceeding $11.1 million.
| 2026 revenue scenario | Annual goal | Revenue needed in H2 | Quarterly average in H2 | Increase over H1 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low | $900 million | $507.13 million | $253.57 million | 29.1% |
| Midpoint | $950 million | $557.13 million | $278.57 million | 41.8% |
| High | $1 billion | $607.13 million | $303.57 million | 54.5% |
The backlog provides assistance, climbing to an all-time high of $1.8 billion from $1.055 billion at the end of March. This amount represents 1.89 times the midpoint of the yearly revenue forecast. However, backlog does not directly equate to short-term sales.
| Contract or measure | Value | Share of $950 million guide midpoint |
|---|---|---|
| Backlog as of end of Q2 | $1.8 billion | 189.5% |
| NASA CLPS contract, March 24 | $180.4 million | 19.0% |
| NASA CLPS contract, June 30 | $148.3 million | 15.6% |
| Combined value of last two CLPS contracts | $328.7 million | 34.6% |
The composition of contracts highlights the importance of timing. In March, NASA gave the company a lunar-delivery task order worth $180.4 million. Another $148.3 million was added with a sixth Commercial Lunar Payload Services award in June.
Chief Executive Steve Altemus said in June, “We are shifting the paradigm from custom aerospace engineering to commercial mass production of lunar infrastructure.” This move may enhance scalability, but also increases execution pressures as the company ramps up for swift integration and production. company release
Analysts approached the report with a generally optimistic outlook. A recent roundup indicated seven Buy recommendations, one Hold, and one Sell. The average price target stood at $40.78, spanning from $11 to $75. The individual targets listed below were all set prior to Thursday’s results.
| Firm | Rating | Price target | Date | Implied change from $15.50 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stifel | Hold | $32 | May 15 | +106.5% |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | Overweight | $43 | May 19 | +177.4% |
| B. Riley Securities | Buy | $45 | May 15 | +190.3% |
| Canaccord Genuity | Buy | $41 | May 15 | +164.5% |
| KeyBanc | Overweight | $27 | April 29 | +74.2% |
Those targets are now subject to a new earnings adjustment. The shares had climbed 37% from the start of August to the end of trading on Wednesday. The drop in premarket trading on Thursday indicates that investors want evidence the backlog will convert quickly enough to meet the projected sales range and deliver positive adjusted EBITDA.
Risks: There is potential for delays, reductions, or cancellations of government awards. Mission timelines might be extended, and integrating acquisitions may impact margins. Quicker conversion of backlog or additional awards may present upside.
The immediate benchmark is now clear. Quarterly revenue needs to significantly outpace the first half’s rate, and adjusted EBITDA must shift firmly into positive territory. Intuitive Machines benefits from its backlog, but whether that translates into profits depends on performance.
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