Market Wrap: U.S. Cash Markets Remain Shut on Sunday

WARSAW, August 16, 2026, 15:25 CEST — U.S. cash markets are not open for trading on Sunday.

Five major U.S. retailers are scheduled to release results from Tuesday through Thursday.
Retail sales in July dropped by 0.6%, marking the first decrease observed in nine months.
Investors may focus more on guidance and comparable sales than on headline earnings outperformance.

Earnings from Home Depot NYSE:HD, Target NYSE:TGT, Lowe’s NYSE:LOW, TJX NYSE:TJX, Walmart NASDAQ:WMT and Deere NYSE:DE will put U.S. consumer strength to the test on this week’s results calendar. The updates come after U.S. retail sales dropped 0.6% in July, missing forecasts for a 0.1% increase. Core sales impacting GDP declined by 0.4%.

Investors are posing an unusually focused question: Was July’s downturn simply due to calendar effects, or did rising fuel prices and slower hiring affect company margins? The upcoming round of earnings, covering home projects, mass retail, budget fashion, and agricultural equipment, is scheduled for release within 72 hours.

Day	Company	Confirmed window	Primary investor test
Tuesday, Aug. 18	Home Depot	9:00 a.m. ET earnings event	Big-ticket projects and Pro demand
Wednesday, Aug. 19	Target	8:00 a.m. ET call	Turnaround traffic and margin quality
Wednesday, Aug. 19	Lowe’s	9:00 a.m. ET call	DIY resilience and acquisition contribution
Wednesday, Aug. 19	TJX	Before the open	Trade-down demand and merchandise margin
Thursday, Aug. 20	Walmart	Materials about 6:00 a.m. CT; call 7:00 a.m.	Food traffic, e-commerce and advertising
Thursday, Aug. 20	Deere	9:00 a.m. CT call	Farm income and input-cost pressure

The biggest reports have company-verified dates. Home Depot, Target, Lowe’s, Walmart and Deere all display these events on their respective investor calendars.

Company	Consensus EPS	Year-on-year signal	What could override EPS
Home Depot	$4.73	About +1%	Second-half comparable-sales guidance
Lowe’s	$4.23	Slight decline implied	DIY versus Pro mix
Target	$2.32	Recovery test	Traffic, gross margin and ad revenue
TJX	$1.19	Value channel test	Merchandise margin and inventory
Walmart	$0.74	About +8.8%	U.S. comps and e-commerce profitability
Deere	$4.69	Cyclical pressure test	Full-year farm-equipment outlook

Analysts expect Home Depot to post revenue of $47.2 billion and Walmart to reach $186.9 billion, according to consensus estimates. The additional EPS predictions offer guidance, but these numbers are still projections. Earnings report dates remain subject to change.

Home Depot faces muted core demand. First-quarter revenue increased by 4.8%, while comparable sales edged up just 0.6%. CEO Ted Decker noted that housing affordability challenges and consumer caution are still high. The retailer maintained its outlook for comparable sales to be flat to up 2% this year.

Brian Nagel of Oppenheimer forecasts Home Depot earnings per share at $4.66, which falls short of the consensus estimate. He noted that investors could have difficulty identifying significant “green shoots” for the quarter. Nagel pointed out that elevated mortgage rates continue to hinder major remodeling activity. Kiplinger

Target offers the most notable turnaround example. Comparable sales in the first quarter were up 5.6%, with traffic growth of 4.4% and digital sales rising 8.9%. Non-merchandise revenue climbed close to 25%, benefiting from gains in advertising, membership, and marketplace income.

Lowe’s and TJX reported contrasting results. Lowe’s achieved 0.6% growth in comparable sales and a 15.5% rise in online sales for the last quarter. TJX posted a 6% increase in comparable sales, a 29% jump in EPS, and subsequently boosted its full-year guidance.

Retail format	Latest reported comp signal	Demand exposure	Best confirming metric this week
Home improvement	HD +0.6%; LOW +0.6%	Housing turnover, repairs, Pro projects	Transactions and big-ticket sales
Mass merchant	TGT +5.6%	Essentials plus discretionary goods	Traffic and gross margin
Off-price	TJX +6.0%	Value-seeking apparel shoppers	Transactions and merchandise margin
Broad value retail	Walmart: quarterly result pending	Food, essentials and higher-income share gains	U.S. comps and ad revenue

Walmart leads this week in major earnings reports. According to Jefferies analyst Corey Tarlowe, results are anticipated to meet expectations, with ongoing benefits anticipated from e-commerce margins and advertising revenue. Tarlowe noted that channeling tariff refunds back into price cuts could boost store traffic, though margins may not improve right away.

Analyst / firm	Stock	Recommendation	Price target	Core argument
Oppenheimer	Walmart	Perform; downgraded from Outperform	Removed	Less room for near-term upside at a rich valuation
Spencer Hanus / Wolfe Research	Target	Outperform; Top Pick	$160	Store execution and customer trends improved
Spencer Hanus / Wolfe Research	Home Depot	Peer Perform	Not stated	Housing lock-in and acquisition drag
Citigroup	Lowe’s	Buy	$285	Smaller projects and market-share gains offer resilience

Market recommendations remain divided. On August 4, Oppenheimer downgraded Walmart to Perform. Wolfe continues to favor Target and Lowe’s above Home Depot, while Citi maintains a Buy rating on Lowe’s. These opinions were issued before upcoming earnings and are not assurances.

Deere expands the analysis past retail outlets. According to Reuters, its findings may indicate if rising energy and input expenses are putting pressure on farmers. This has implications for spending in rural areas and machinery demand, in addition to Deere’s consensus EPS estimate of $4.69.

Risks: July sales figures were affected by a previous Prime Day event and decreased gasoline sales. A single quarter might not set the consumer trend. Geopolitical events, changes in fuel costs, and specific company promotions may also complicate straightforward year-on-year comparisons.

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Further analysis

Editorial insight

What makes retail earnings the key reports to watch this week?

Results from five major retailers are due within a three-day period, following a 0.6% drop in July U.S. retail sales. Home Depot, Lowe's, Target, TJX and Walmart together represent categories from home improvement to essentials, discretionary goods and budget shopping. Their same-store sales and forecasts are expected to indicate if July’s weakness was a short-term dip or points to a wider trend.

Beyond headline EPS, which earnings metrics carry greater importance?

Key metrics include comparable sales, customer traffic, gross margin, and outlook. Investors watching Walmart should focus on U.S. e-commerce profit and advertising expansion. For Home Depot and Lowe's, performance in big-ticket sales and Pro spending will show if elevated borrowing costs continue to limit renovation activity.

Is it possible for a company to surpass earnings forecasts but still have its stock price decline?

Yes. Cost reductions may drive beats, but weaker sales, traffic or outlook could still disappoint. Walmart's valuation offers little cushion for a soft quarter, while expectations are rising for Target after its recovery. Home Depot and Lowe's are under pressure to provide solid proof that demand could pick up in the latter part of the year. The key question remains whether the recent slowdown in spending will continue.