TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
The August 21 list uses Thursday’s broad selloff to improve entry prices in five companies with verified earnings growth. Bond yields and oil remain the constraint, so every position starts with a limit order rather than a market buy.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Thursday close • Friday premarket not yet open
U.S. cash market closed
Read-through: Walmart’s 9.2% fall and a rebound in long-term yields produced the market’s worst session in three weeks. The retreat improved selected entry prices, but declining issues still outnumbered advancers by almost two to one.
Next catalysts: the U.S. flash manufacturing and services PMIs arrive at 9:45 a.m. ET. NVIDIA reports fiscal second-quarter results on August 26 at about 4:20 p.m. ET, a separate event risk for the AI complex.
23% weight
NASDAQ:GOOGL
Alphabet
Alphabet’s 1.2% Thursday decline moved the shares back toward the low end of the recent range while Cloud revenue and operating profit are accelerating. The entry is attractive only if yields do not jump again after the PMI release.
Analyst average: $428.04, implying 25.6% upside. TS2 base-case forecast: $405.
Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8B; Cloud operating income reached $8.8B.
The multiple is recalculated to Thursday’s close from the latest available forward-earnings estimate.
Place the first limit inside the zone; add only if the 10-year yield stays below Thursday’s high after 9:45 a.m. ET.
Watch whether Cloud growth stays broad while depreciation from the enlarged infrastructure program rises.
18% weight
NYSE:TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
TSMC has the highest analyst-target upside in the group and the lowest recalculated forward multiple. Its monthly sales and quarterly guidance still point to strong demand, though the ADR needs a geopolitical discount.
Analyst average: $547.09, implying 32.8% upside. TS2 base-case forecast: $490.
Gross margin was 67.7% and operating margin was 60.3%; diluted EPS reached $4.31 per ADR.
Q3 revenue guidance is $44.6B–$45.8B, with a 65%–67% gross-margin range.
Use two limits below the close and keep the larger order near the middle of the zone.
July revenue rose 44.7% to NT$467.58B; the next monthly release will test the persistence of that pace.
19% weight
NYSE:SPGI
S&P Global
S&P Global gained 1.3% while the index fell, giving the portfolio a profitable data and benchmarks business outside hyperscaler capex. Ratings issuance and index-linked fees drove the latest quarter.
Analyst average: $516.95, implying 19.6% upside. TS2 base-case forecast: $500.
Adjusted EPS rose 23% to $4.83; pro forma revenue excluding the Mobility spin increased 11%.
Ratings revenue increased 17% and Indices revenue rose 20%, offsetting slower growth in Energy and Market Intelligence.
Do not chase Thursday’s relative-strength move; wait for a limit below the close.
Monitor debt issuance, index assets and the first clean quarter after the Mobility spin-off.
21% weight
NASDAQ:AMZN
Amazon
Amazon’s 2.2% fall was larger than the Nasdaq’s decline as Walmart’s report weighed on consumer shares. AWS growth and operating income remain the better anchors for the thesis, but the retail signal justifies a lower bid.
Analyst average: $326.07, implying 25.4% upside. TS2 base-case forecast: $310.
Operating income rose 43% to $27.5B; AWS sales increased 37% to $42.2B.
AWS operating income reached $16.6B, while trailing free cash flow turned negative as infrastructure purchases accelerated.
Use the first limit below Thursday’s close; add after the opening hour only if retail shares stabilize.
Track whether the data-center build supports AWS growth while higher fuel costs restrain household spending.
19% weight
NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft
Microsoft fell less than the Nasdaq on Thursday and retains the strongest contracted revenue visibility in the portfolio. The company’s AI commitments are large enough that the model requires a further discount before buying.
Analyst average: $567.20, implying 17.9% upside. TS2 base-case forecast: $545.
Operating income rose 18% to $40.6B; Microsoft Cloud revenue increased 27% to $59.3B.
Commercial remaining performance obligation rose 84% to $678B, supporting revenue visibility.
Split the position across two limits and skip the trade if shares open above the entry range.
Confirm that new capacity converts into cloud revenue without a disproportionate rise in power and depreciation expense.
SIDE-BY-SIDE
Forecast and valuation comparison
| Ticker | Price | Forecast | Fwd P/E | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | $340.67 | $405 | 25.64× | $428.04 | 25.6% | $333–$338 |
| TSM | $412.09 | $490 | 18.61× | $547.09 | 32.8% | $398–$407 |
| SPGI | $432.16 | $500 | 22.87× | $516.95 | 19.6% | $420–$428 |
| AMZN | $260.11 | $310 | 28.00× | $326.07 | 25.4% | $252–$258 |
| MSFT | $481.15 | $545 | 24.41× | $567.20 | 17.9% | $470–$478 |
Prices are August 20 regular-session closes. Forecasts are TS2 base cases. Upside is recalculated from the displayed price to the displayed analyst average target. Forward multiples are price-adjusted from the latest available estimate set; estimates and targets may refresh at different times, lag new information and remain uncertain.
ALLOCATION
Portfolio structure
RANKING ENGINE
How the model ranks today’s list
AUGUST 21 ENTRY RULE
Wait for the PMI and the opening range
Premarket has not opened, so place no market orders. Use one-third limits inside the listed zones after quotes begin, a second third only after the 9:45 a.m. ET flash PMI reaction, and the final third after the first 60 minutes if price remains above the opening low. Cancel unfilled growth orders if the 10-year yield moves materially above 4.71% or WTI extends sharply from $86.76.
WATCHLIST
Good reports, weaker entries today
Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 85% to $81.6B and Data Center revenue increased 92%, but fiscal Q2 results arrive August 26 at about 4:20 p.m. ET. The binary event is too close for a full entry.
Fiscal Q3 EPS reached $5.10 and net income rose to $1.379B, but the shares jumped 6.9% to $620.94. The $110M tariff refund also helped the quarter; wait for a pullback.
Revenue grew 5.9% and operating cash flow reached $19.7B, yet U.S. comparable sales grew only 2.6% and the stock fell 9.2%. Let guidance revisions and the price gap settle first.
PORTFOLIO HEAT
Opportunity score
7.3/10
The pullback improved target upside and all five companies reported double-digit revenue or adjusted earnings growth. Heat stays below 8 because long yields are near multi-year extremes and four positions retain direct exposure to the AI investment cycle.
MARKET RISK CHECK
The bond market can erase the entry discount
The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.71% and the 30-year yield near 5.26% early Friday after the government’s larger buybacks failed to hold down borrowing costs. WTI remained at $86.76 as Middle East supply disruptions continued. A strong PMI with firm price components could lift yields again, while weak activity data would deepen the consumer concern exposed by Walmart.