TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
Friday’s rebound improved the tape but did not remove the valuation pressure from long Treasury yields. This weekend list favors companies with recently confirmed growth, visible demand and entry levels below Friday’s close.
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Friday close • weekend edition
U.S. cash market closed
Read-through: Friday’s 0.4% S&P 500 advance recovered only part of the week’s decline; the index still lost 1.4%, while the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. The rally broadened, but a 4.74% 10-year yield and $87 oil keep the discount rate high for long-duration growth stocks.
Next catalysts: July PCE inflation, second-estimate GDP and durable-goods orders are due Wednesday, August 26, at 8:30 a.m. ET. NVIDIA reports at 5:00 p.m. ET the same day; the Jackson Hole symposium follows August 27–29.
23% weight
NASDAQ:GOOGL
Alphabet
Alphabet rose 1.2% Friday but remains the portfolio’s best mix of Cloud acceleration, analyst-target upside and a manageable entry. The model will not chase the rebound because higher yields can still compress the multiple.
Analyst average: $428.07, implying 24.1% upside. TS2 base case: $405.
Google Cloud revenue rose 82% to $24.8B; Cloud operating income reached $8.8B.
The multiple is price-adjusted from the latest available forward earnings set.
Place the first limit in the zone Monday; add only after yields and the opening range stabilize.
Watch whether Cloud profit keeps scaling while infrastructure depreciation rises.
18% weight
NYSE:TSM
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
TSMC gained 0.7% Friday and still has the highest consensus-target upside in the five-stock group. Its quarterly guidance and July sales support the earnings case, while the ADR’s geopolitical exposure requires a smaller weight.
Analyst average: $554.45, implying 32.3% upside. TS2 base case: $490.
Gross margin was 67.7% and operating margin was 60.3%.
Q3 revenue guidance is $44.6B–$45.8B, with 65%–67% gross margin.
Split the order across two limits; reserve the larger tranche for post-NVIDIA volatility.
NVIDIA’s August 26 report tests AI accelerator demand before TSMC’s next monthly release.
19% weight
NYSE:SPGI
S&P Global
S&P Global slipped 0.2% Friday after outperforming in Thursday’s selloff. Ratings, indices and market data diversify the portfolio away from semiconductor demand while retaining recurring, high-margin information revenue.
Analyst average: $516.95, implying 19.9% upside. TS2 base case: $500.
Adjusted EPS rose 23% to $4.83; GAAP operating profit increased 17%.
Ratings and Indices were the strongest disclosed growth engines in the latest quarter.
Use a limit below Friday’s close; do not turn the defensive allocation into a momentum trade.
Monitor debt issuance and assets tied to S&P and Dow Jones benchmarks.
21% weight
NASDAQ:AMZN
Amazon
Amazon fell 0.6% Friday, extending Thursday’s consumer-led decline. AWS growth is the thesis anchor, but Walmart’s slower comparable sales and $87 oil justify waiting below the market for the retail exposure.
Analyst average: $327.00, implying 26.4% upside. TS2 base case: $310.
Operating income rose to $27.5B; AWS sales increased 37% to $42.2B.
AWS operating income reached $16.6B, while infrastructure purchases weighed on cash flow.
Start with one-third in the zone; add only if retail shares hold after the first hour Monday.
Track capacity monetization alongside fuel-sensitive household spending.
19% weight
NASDAQ:MSFT
Microsoft
Microsoft added 0.5% Friday and retains the portfolio’s clearest contracted-revenue visibility. The price is still sensitive to the long end of the Treasury curve, so the model requires a discount before adding exposure.
Analyst average: $569.56, implying 17.9% upside. TS2 base case: $545.
Operating income rose 18% to $40.6B; Microsoft Cloud revenue increased 27% to $59.3B.
Commercial remaining performance obligation rose 84% to $678B.
Split the position across two limits and leave orders unfilled if Monday gaps above the range.
Confirm that new capacity converts into revenue without disproportionate power and depreciation costs.
SIDE-BY-SIDE
Forecast and valuation comparison
| Ticker | Price | Forecast | Fwd P/E | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL | $344.82 | $405 | 25.95× | $428.07 | 24.1% | $338–$343 |
| TSM | $418.95 | $490 | 18.92× | $554.45 | 32.3% | $407–$416 |
| SPGI | $431.29 | $500 | 22.82× | $516.95 | 19.9% | $420–$428 |
| AMZN | $258.63 | $310 | 27.84× | $327.00 | 26.4% | $249–$256 |
| MSFT | $483.24 | $545 | 24.52× | $569.56 | 17.9% | $471–$480 |
Prices are August 21 regular-session closes. Forecasts are TS2 base cases, not analyst targets. Upside is recalculated from each displayed price to the displayed average target. Forward multiples are price-adjusted from the latest available estimate set; estimates and targets may be stale, revised without notice or fail to reflect new information.
ALLOCATION
Portfolio structure
RANKING ENGINE
How the model ranks today’s list
AUGUST 22 ENTRY RULE
Prepare limits; do not trade a closed market
The cash market is closed until Monday, August 24. Stage at most one-third of each position inside its entry zone, use a second tranche only after the first 60 minutes if price holds above the opening low, and reserve the final third until after Wednesday’s 8:30 a.m. ET data. Keep TSM and the broader AI allocation below full size until NVIDIA reports at 5:00 p.m. ET Wednesday.
WATCHLIST
Good reports, weaker entries today
Fiscal Q1 revenue rose 85% to $81.6B, but the shares closed Friday at $214.72 and fiscal Q2 results arrive August 26 at 5:00 p.m. ET. The binary event is too close for a full entry.
Fiscal Q3 EPS reached $5.10 and net income rose 7% to $1.379B, but Deere jumped another 4.3% Friday to $647.47. A $110M tariff recovery also aided the quarter; wait for the post-earnings move to settle.
Revenue grew 5.9% and operating cash flow reached $19.7B, yet U.S. comparable sales excluding fuel rose only 2.6%. The shares stabilized at $103.70 Friday, but guidance revisions and the Thursday gap need more time.
PORTFOLIO HEAT
Opportunity score
7.1/10
All five companies have recently confirmed double-digit revenue or adjusted earnings growth, and consensus targets remain above Friday’s prices. Heat stays near 7 because the 10-year yield is 4.74%, oil is elevated and Wednesday concentrates macro and semiconductor event risk.
MARKET RISK CHECK
Relief rally, not an all-clear
The S&P 500 rose Friday but lost 1.4% for the week, while the Nasdaq fell 2.1%. A hot PCE reading, firmer GDP-price details or a weak NVIDIA outlook could lift discount rates and cut AI multiples at the same time. WTI at $87.06 adds a separate inflation channel; invalidate aggressive entries if the 10-year yield breaks materially above Friday’s 4.74% close.