PALO ALTO, California, August 25, 2026, 14:40 (EDT)
- Rubrik stock declined approximately 7% to near $91 in trading on Tuesday.
- Wells Fargo increased its price target to $120, up from $90.
- Fiscal Q2 results will be released after Thursday’s market close.
Shares of Rubrik, Inc. NYSE: RBRK slid around 7% on Tuesday, wiping out nearly $1.45 billion in market capitalization.
The decision followed a positive analyst update. Wells Fargo increased its price target to $120 from $90 and maintained its Overweight rating Wells Fargo research summary.
The bank added that expectations have increased for off-cycle software reporters. It noted that this factor is more significant than the headline target.
Rubrik was last seen around $91 at 14:33 EDT. Trading volume reached roughly 2.19 million shares, amounting to 60% of its recent daily average Yahoo Finance quote.
| Analyst benchmark | Target | Upside from about $91 | Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wells Fargo | $120 | 31.9% | Aug. 25 |
| Oppenheimer | $120 | 31.9% | Aug. 20 |
| Cantor Fitzgerald | $120 | 31.9% | Aug. 20 |
| KeyBanc | $112 | 23.1% | Aug. 21 |
| 27-analyst consensus | $103.07 | 13.3% | Aug. 24 snapshot |
Recent targets are consistently upbeat. The consensus features 24 Strong Buy ratings and three Buy ratings, with no Holds or Sells S&P Global analyst compilation.
This sets a rare challenge for results. Rubrik is scheduled to release fiscal second-quarter earnings on August 27 after market close, with a conference call at 5 p.m. EDT company announcement.
Management forecast revenue between $395 million and $397 million. The midpoint of $396 million suggests a 27.7% increase compared to the same quarter a year ago.
The midpoint represents an increase of just 2.3% over first-quarter revenue. Investors are looking for annual recurring revenue figures to validate ongoing growth in subscriptions.
Subscription ARR grew by 32% in the first quarter to $1.57 billion. Revenue climbed 39% to $387.1 million, with free cash flow at $73.6 million Rubrik’s first-quarter release.
Chief Financial Officer Kiran Choudary said those numbers demonstrate “durable growth and meaningful operating leverage at scale.” The recent selloff challenges whether investors continue to support that operational thesis.
Partner checks indicate backing. Cantor Fitzgerald reported 57% of polled partners were ahead of plan, compared to 17% earlier Cantor partner-check summary.
Valuation is still the sticking point. Rubrik’s market value is about $18.7 billion, which is approximately 11.4 times the midpoint of its projected revenue guidance for fiscal 2027.
Shares remain approximately 26% higher than their July 31 close. As a result, Tuesday’s pullback erases just a portion of the gains made in August.
Risks: Even with strong performance, results might fall short of high expectations. If ARR growth slows, guidance disappoints, or margins are reinvested, the revenue multiple could come under pressure.
The investor’s assessment is straightforward. Thursday needs to confirm both continued growth and the higher valuation anticipated in recent analyst estimates.
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