5 Stocks You Need to Buy Now (November 4, 2025)

Key Takeaways (November 4, 2025)

Amazon (AMZN) – E-commerce and cloud titan with record-breaking Q3 earnings (revenue +13% YoY) and surging cloud & advertising sales fueling a $2.6 trillion market cap rally ^[1] ^[2]. Analysts rate Amazon a “Strong Buy” with a 20% upside to ~$292 ^[3], driven by AWS’s AI-powered growth and robust consumer demand.
JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – America’s largest bank, posting strong profit beats (Q3 EPS $5.07 vs $4.83 est.) amid rising interest income ^[4]. The stock trades near all-time highs around $309 ^[5] with a reasonable ~15× P/E ^[6] and 1.9% dividend yield after a payout hike ^[7]. Wall Street sees more upside, with a Moderate Buy consensus and targets in the mid-$300s ^[8].
Eli Lilly (LLY) – Pharma/biotech leader dominating the new obesity drug market. Q3 sales soared 54% (to $17.6 B) as its Mounjaro and Zepbound injections far exceeded forecasts ^[9] ^[10]. Lilly hiked its 2025 outlook again ^[11]. Despite a rich valuation (~54× trailing P/E), forward P/E ~27× ^[12] reflects explosive growth. Investors remain bullish: one fund COO called Lilly’s blowout quarter “fantastic,” showcasing the firm’s dynamic business model ^[13].
Exxon Mobil (XOM) – Oil & gas giant offering steady cash returns and new growth projects. It beat Q3 profit estimates on record output (Permian, Guyana) despite lower oil prices ^[14], and raised its dividend 4% (yield ~3.6% annually) ^[15]. CEO Darren Woods is investing for long-term demand – “the industry has to bring on more barrels just to stand still,” he noted, underscoring a focus beyond short-term cycles ^[16]. With a ~15× P/E and ~12–13% upside to analysts’ ~$129 target ^[17], Exxon is a high-yield play on global energy needs.
Alibaba (BABA) – Chinese tech titan rebounding with undervalued growth. The stock (≈$168 ^[18]) trades at only ~9.8× forward earnings ^[19] despite improving fundamentals. Core commerce is growing (8% sales rise last quarter ^[20]) and cloud/AI initiatives are booming – Alibaba’s AI platform saw 6 straight quarters of 100%+ growth ^[21] as the company invests more in AI/cloud in the next 3 years than the past decade ^[22]. With a $375 B market cap ^[23] (up ~50% YoY) and aggressive buybacks reducing share count ^[24], analysts see significant upside (Bernstein recently raised its target to $200, citing Alibaba’s AI capabilities ^[25]).

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Table: Key Metrics for Top 5 Stocks (Nov 4, 2025)

Company (Ticker)	Price (Nov 4, 2025)	Market Cap	Trailing P/E	Forward P/E	Dividend Yield
Amazon.com (AMZN)	~$254 ^[26]	$2.60 T ^[27]	~34× ^[28]	~29× ^[29]	N/A (growth)
JPMorgan Chase (JPM)	~$309 ^[30]	$850 B ^[31]	15.3× ^[32]	~17× (est.)	1.9% ^[33]
Eli Lilly (LLY)	~$863 ^[34]	$803 B ^[35]	53.6× ^[36]	27.2× ^[37]	~0.7% ^[38]
Exxon Mobil (XOM)	~$114 ^[39]	$488 B ^[40]	15.8× ^[41]	15.0× ^[42]	3.6% ^[43]
Alibaba Group (BABA)	~$168 ^[44]	~$375 B ^[45]	~17× ^[46]	9.8× ^[47]	N/A (reinvesting)

(Market caps in USD; P/E = price-to-earnings ratio; Forward P/E uses next 12-month earnings forecasts. Dividend yield bolded for income-generating stocks.)

1. Amazon (AMZN) – E-Commerce & Cloud Titan Riding an AI Wave

Company Overview: Amazon is a global juggernaut spanning e-commerce, cloud computing, digital advertising, and media. Its Amazon Web Services (AWS) cloud platform and Prime ecosystem (retail + streaming content) have made it one of the world’s most valuable companies at a $2.6 trillion market capitalization ^[48]. Amazon’s dominance in online shopping and cloud infrastructure gives it multiple growth engines. Even as a mega-cap, it continues to deliver double-digit revenue increases by expanding into new areas like AI services, groceries, healthcare, and logistics.

Current Stock Performance: Amazon’s stock recently surged to all-time highs after an impressive earnings report ^[49]. Shares trade around $254 as of Nov 4, 2025 ^[50], up roughly 25% from a year ago ^[51]. At ~34 times trailing earnings (and ~28× forward earnings) ^[52], Amazon isn’t cheap, but its valuation looks reasonable given its growth rate and profitability. Notably, Wall Street remains exceedingly bullish – all 42 analysts covering Amazon rate it a “Buy,” with a median 12-month price target of about $292 (≈20% above current levels) ^[53] ^[54]. This consensus “Strong Buy” reflects confidence that Amazon’s diverse revenue streams and investments in technology will continue to pay off.

Blowout Q3 Earnings & Recent News: Amazon’s latest quarterly results underscore its momentum. In Q3 2025, revenue jumped to $180.2 billion (up 13% year-on-year) ^[55], handily beating estimates. Net income more than doubled to $21.2 billion ($1.95 per share) – smashing expectations of around $1.57 ^[56]. The strongest gains came from AWS, which grew 20% YoY to $33.0 B in sales ^[57]. Advertising revenue (a fast-growing segment for Amazon) climbed 28% to $14.7 B ^[58]. These high-margin businesses helped operating income soar, sending Amazon’s stock up 12% in after-hours trading on the report ^[59]. CEO Andy Jassy highlighted surging demand in cloud services: “AWS is growing at a pace we haven’t seen since 2022. We continue to see strong demand in AI and core infrastructure, and we’ve been focused on accelerating capacity,” Jassy said ^[60], noting that Amazon is rapidly expanding data center capacity to meet clients’ AI computing needs. Indeed, AWS’s ties to artificial intelligence – e.g. selling GPU cloud instances and developing AI tools – are a key storyline. Amazon is investing heavily in AI for both its cloud and consumer devices (e.g. Alexa’s new AI upgrades ^[61]), aiming to ride the AI revolution alongside peers.

On the retail side, Amazon’s core e-commerce business also outperformed expectations in Q3, boosted by a record Prime Day event and strong consumer demand ^[62]. The company’s focus on efficiency and automation is paying off – Amazon recently hit a milestone of deploying over 1 million warehouse robots, and leaked plans suggest it aims to automate hundreds of thousands of jobs over time to cut costs ^[63] ^[64]. It also launched new low-priced Amazon Basics grocery products and same-day grocery delivery to drive retail growth ^[65]. These initiatives, plus Amazon’s push into areas like healthcare (e.g. Amazon Clinic) and continued international expansion, point to plenty of runway.

Expert Commentary & Market Sentiment: Analysts see Amazon’s “financial fortress” only getting stronger. “AWS, AI and ad sales continue to be major drivers for [this] Magnificent Seven stock,” noted one 24/7 Wall St. analysis ^[66] ^[67]. They highlight that Amazon’s Q3 earnings beat has “turned a corner” for the stock after a choppy start to 2025 ^[68]. Wall Street expects growth to continue: “The consensus projection signals strong upside… based on strong forward guidance for segments like AWS and Prime Video’s ad sales,” according to that report ^[69] ^[70]. The median analyst target near $292 implies confidence that Amazon’s investments (in AI infrastructure, streaming sports content like NFL Thursday Night Football, logistics, etc.) will drive substantial earnings gains ^[71] ^[72]. Major institutional investors like Vanguard and BlackRock have been increasing their positions, with 64% of shares held by institutions ^[73] – a sign of strong market support.

It’s worth noting some tempered voices: after such a big rally (Amazon stock is up ~10% year-to-date ^[74]), a few observers question if growth can continue at the same breakneck pace. The company faces enormous capital expenditures for AI and fulfillment centers, which could weigh on near-term cash flow ^[75]. And while Amazon’s retail dominance is unparalleled, competition isn’t disappearing – Walmart and Alibaba (another pick in this list) challenge Amazon internationally, and Microsoft and Google compete in cloud services ^[76]. However, no one is predicting Amazon’s empire will stumble imminently. CEO Andy Jassy has emphasized that Amazon’s long-term strategy is intact, focusing on “customer obsession” and innovation in high-growth areas (cloud, AI, advertising, entertainment).

Financials & Valuation: With 2025 profit estimates rising after Q3’s beat, Amazon now trades around 33.9× trailing earnings and 28.6× forward earnings ^[77] – high, but not extreme for a company expected to grow EPS ~30% next year. Its price-to-sales is ~3.6×, and importantly, Amazon’s balance sheet is solid (over $70 B in cash) with strong free cash flow fueling aggressive share buybacks in recent years. The market is essentially pricing Amazon as both a retail staple and a hyper-growth tech stock. Morningstar currently appraises Amazon’s “fair value” at around $280/share (implying it’s slightly undervalued as of November) ^[78], and other models concur that Amazon’s sum-of-the-parts – if you consider AWS separately – supports a valuation higher than today’s price.

Growth Outlook: Medium- and long-term, Amazon’s prospects look bright. AWS continues to benefit from an enterprise shift to cloud and digital transformation. In fact, AWS is “the world’s largest cloud provider” and still growing double-digits ^[79], with huge future demand from AI startups and Fortune 500s alike. Amazon’s ad business (now ~$60B/year run-rate) is stealing market share from traditional digital advertisers given Amazon’s unique shopper data ^[80]. Newer bets like healthcare and satellite internet (Project Kuiper) could become significant contributors by late this decade. Key drivers ahead include: the integration of generative AI across Amazon’s products (improving Alexa, Amazon Web Services offerings, and even the shopping experience), international retail growth in markets like India and Latin America, and continued efficiency gains in fulfillment (drones, automation).

Risks to Consider: Despite overwhelming positives, Amazon isn’t without risks. Regulatory scrutiny is a constant – the FTC has an ongoing antitrust suit alleging anti-competitive practices in the marketplace. Any forced changes to Amazon’s marketplace structure or fees could impact profitability. Macroeconomic factors are also a consideration: if consumer spending falters (e.g. due to a recession), Amazon’s retail revenues could slow, though its diversified model (cloud and ads) offers some insulation. Competition in cloud from Microsoft Azure and Google Cloud is fierce, with some big customers developing multi-cloud strategies or even their own AI chips (as noted, Alphabet is investing in TPUs to reduce reliance on Nvidia/AWS ^[81]). Additionally, Amazon’s push to automate and cut costs could invite political backlash or impact its reputation as an employer. Lastly, high capital spending (new data centers, satellite launches, etc.) will need to be monitored – currently investors seem comfortable, but a big earnings miss could change sentiment on its rich valuation.

Bottom Line on AMZN: Amazon remains a core holding for growth investors. It’s executing exceptionally well in 2025, firing on all cylinders from e-commerce to cloud to advertising. The stock’s recent jump reflects renewed confidence after a period of stock price stagnation. With Wall Street unanimously bullish and Amazon itself projecting strong holiday-quarter sales, Amazon looks poised for sustained medium-term growth. For investors seeking a blend of mega-cap stability and tech-like expansion, Amazon is still a top pick. As 24/7 Wall St. summed up, “there can be little doubt about Amazon’s current financial health… the prospects for Amazon are optimistic overall, especially in the short term” ^[82] ^[83]. While valuation is always a talking point, Amazon’s unique combination of scale, innovation, and execution make it a compelling buy – even near its highs – for those betting on the continued rise of AI and cloud-powered consumer commerce.

2. JPMorgan Chase (JPM) – Banking Blue-Chip with Strong Earnings and Yield

Company Overview: JPMorgan Chase is the largest U.S. bank and a bellwether for the global financial industry. It operates a diversified financial empire spanning consumer banking, corporate and investment banking, trading, credit cards, asset management, and more ^[84]. This “fortress” bank, as CEO Jamie Dimon often calls it, has a reputation for a strong balance sheet and prudent risk management. With nationwide consumer reach (over 4,800 branches) and top-tier investment banking and markets units, JPMorgan’s breadth gives it resilience across economic cycles. As of 2025, it’s also one of the world’s most valuable banks at about $850 billion market capitalization ^[85].

Stock and Dividend: JPMorgan stock has been a steady performer this year, recently trading around $309 per share ^[86] – near its 12-month high of ~$318. At this price, it carries a modest valuation of ~15× trailing earnings ^[87] (the S&P 500 is over 18×) and around 1.6× book value (reasonable for a bank of its quality). Notably, JPMorgan offers investors a solid dividend. The bank hiked its quarterly dividend to $1.50/share this fall ^[88], bringing the annual yield to roughly 1.9% at current prices ^[89]. This dividend has grown consistently – up from $1.00 quarterly just a few years ago – reflecting JPM’s strong earnings and capital position. Additionally, the bank returns capital via share buybacks (it resumed repurchases in 2023–2024 after a Fed-mandated pause in the pandemic years). For yield-oriented investors, JPM provides a blend of income and growth; its dividend payout ratio is under 30%, leaving plenty of room for future increases ^[90].

Recent Earnings Strength: 2025 has been kind to big bank earnings, and JPMorgan is no exception. The bank delivered strong Q3 results in October, beating Wall Street expectations. Earnings per share came in at $5.07, comfortably above the $4.83 consensus ^[91] and up from $3.12 a year ago (a 62% jump). Revenue hit $46.4 billion for the quarter, up ~9% year-on-year ^[92]. Crucially, each major division contributed: consumer and small business banking saw healthy loan growth and robust card spending; the corporate & investment bank benefited from a rebound in trading revenue and steady advisory fees; and wealth management and commercial banking also grew. CEO Jamie Dimon lauded that “each line of business performed well” amid a resilient U.S. economy ^[93] ^[94]. The bank’s return on equity is an impressive 17.1% ^[95] – illustrating how profitably it’s deploying shareholder capital.

One big driver has been net interest income (NII) – the profit JPMorgan makes on lending minus what it pays on deposits. With interest rates sharply higher than a year ago, JPM’s lending margins have expanded. The bank’s net interest income for 2025 is on track to reach a record ~$92 billion according to management (ex-markets) ^[96]. In Q3, net interest yield was 2.47%, up from 1.95% a year prior, boosting income from the huge loan book. Crucially, JPMorgan has managed this without major deposit outflows – deposits were relatively stable as customers trust JPM as a safe haven, especially after regional bank turmoil in 2023. Non-interest revenues (like investment banking fees and trading) have been more mixed, but showed signs of recovery in Q3 as capital markets activity picked up.

Another positive: Expense discipline. Despite inflation, JPMorgan’s operating costs have been well-contained, leading to positive “jaws” (revenue growth outpacing expense growth). The efficiency ratio stands in the low 50% range, quite lean for a bank. Credit quality also remains healthy; while JPM did modestly boost loan loss reserves (preparing for potential credit normalization), actual net charge-offs remain low. Jamie Dimon did caution that the economy is facing “headwinds like sticky inflation and geopolitical tension,” but emphasized JPMorgan is prepared with ample reserves and capital ^[97] ^[98].

Major Recent News: Two notable developments: (1) JPMorgan increased its dividend by 7% (from $1.40 to $1.50 quarterly) effective Q4 2025, as mentioned, signaling confidence in forward earnings ^[99]. (2) The bank easily passed the Fed’s annual stress tests and got approval to boost shareholder payouts. Along with dividends, JPM has been actively buying back stock; it repurchased $3.5B of shares in Q3 and aims for more in Q4 (subject to capital needs). These moves indicate JPMorgan’s capital ratios are robust – Common Equity Tier 1 ratio is around 15%, comfortably above requirements even after its acquisition of First Republic Bank in 2023. Also in recent news, JPMorgan is reportedly in the early stages of expanding its consumer business overseas (e.g. its UK digital bank “Chase” and considering other markets), which could open new growth avenues long-term.

Analyst & Investor Views: Wall Street’s view on JPMorgan is broadly positive. According to MarketBeat, the stock has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating, with 16 out of 28 analysts currently rating it a Buy (or Strong Buy) and an average price target of about $322.50 ^[100]. Many analysts bumped up their targets after Q3’s robust results. For instance, Royal Bank of Canada recently re-iterated an “Outperform” (Buy) and set a $343 target ^[101]. Barclays and UBS also see the stock in the mid-$330s ^[102]. The highest target comes from Goldman Sachs at $366 ^[103], which implies ~18% upside. Bulls argue JPMorgan deserves a premium for its market leadership and fortress balance sheet. Even the few skeptics (3 analysts have Sell ratings ^[104]) often concede that JPM is best-in-class; their concerns are more about valuation or macro risks than company-specific issues.

From the investor side, JPMorgan is widely held by institutions and often considered a “core” financial stock. Jamie Dimon’s leadership garners respect – he’s steered JPM through crises and positioned it to benefit from industry consolidation (e.g. the First Republic acquisition added valuable clients and deposits). Dimon has struck a cautiously optimistic tone: he called the U.S. economy “resilient” after Q3 earnings, noting robust consumer spending and a strong job market, but he also warned about uncertainties like higher rates and geopolitical risks ^[105]. He famously said he’s “far more worried than others” about the chance of a market correction in the next 6–12 months ^[106], encouraging the bank to prepare for various scenarios. Investors generally view JPM as a safe way to play financials, given it’s diversified and extremely well-capitalized.

Financial Metrics & Valuation: By traditional metrics, JPM stock looks reasonably valued. Its P/E (~15×) is slightly below its 10-year historical average of ~13–14× (banks often traded lower in the low-rate era). However, with rates higher now, bank earnings are elevated; some analysts use a through-cycle P/E or consider the risk of earnings normalization if rates fall. JPM’s price-to-book (P/B) is around 1.6× – higher than peers like Bank of America (~1.2×) or Citi (~0.5×), reflecting JPM’s superior profitability (Return on Equity ~17% vs peers in 10–12% range). If you believe JPMorgan can sustain ROEs in the high teens, a P/B above 1.5× is justified. The dividend yield near 2% is decent, though some regional banks offer more; yet JPM’s dividend is far safer and likely to grow. It’s also worth noting JPMorgan’s earnings are expected to slightly grow in 2026 (analysts forecast mid-single-digit EPS growth next year, on top of 2025’s jump ^[107]), so it’s not ex-growth by any means.

Growth Outlook: Over the medium term, JPMorgan’s growth will come from a few areas. First, interest income should remain high so long as rates stay elevated – even if the Fed starts cutting rates in 2026, most expect a higher baseline than the 2010s, which benefits banks’ net interest margins. JPMorgan’s huge deposit base is a low-cost funding advantage that smaller banks can’t easily replicate. Second, credit card and consumer lending: JPM is seeing strong credit card loan growth and travel/hospitality spending; its acquisition of loyalty program tech (e.g. cxLoyalty) and partnerships (like co-brand cards with Amazon and others) give it a leading position as consumer credit normalizes post-pandemic. Third, asset & wealth management: with the acquisition of First Republic’s wealth unit and organic growth, JPM’s AUM is climbing, producing steady fee income. Fourth, investment banking should rebound if capital markets improve – IPOs/M&A were subdued in early 2025 but are ticking up; JPMorgan consistently ranks #1 in global IB fees, so it’s poised to capitalize when deal-making returns. Lastly, JPM continues investing in fintech and AI (for instance, its internal AI initiatives to help client trading or detect fraud). These won’t move the needle immediately, but they keep the bank at the technological forefront (it spends ~$14B on technology annually).

Risks: Owning any bank comes with macro risk. A recession could increase loan defaults (though JPM has hefty reserves for that). Interest rate risk is two-sided: if the Fed were to rapidly cut rates (e.g. due to recession), banks’ NII could fall; conversely, if rates spike further, it could pressure borrowers and deposit costs. JPMorgan also faces regulatory risks. There are proposals to significantly raise capital requirements for big banks (the Basel III “Endgame” rules); if implemented, JPM might need to hold more equity capital, potentially limiting buybacks or lending growth. Jamie Dimon has been vocally critical of “excessive regulation” that might push lending out of banks. Another risk: geopolitical shocks (JPM has global operations – any emerging market crisis or conflict can cause trading losses or credit issues). And while JPM is very well-run, it’s not immune to event risks – e.g. a rogue trading loss or cybersecurity breach. The bank’s sheer size ($3.9 trillion in assets) means it is systemically important; it won’t fail quietly, but it also has implicit government backstop given its importance.

Bottom Line on JPM: JPMorgan is a high-quality, “all-weather” stock that offers a bit of everything – growth, income, and relative safety. It has navigated 2025’s environment of high rates and market volatility deftly, producing record profits. As Fortune noted, “Each line of business performed well” in recent results ^[108], and Dimon’s team is preparing for challenges while still delivering for shareholders. For investors looking to add a financial sector leader to their portfolio, JPMorgan is a compelling choice. The stock isn’t the cheapest bank out there, but you’re paying for best-in-class performance and stability. With a nearly 2% yield and double-digit upside expected by analysts ^[109], JPMorgan offers an attractive risk/reward. It’s a stock one can “buy and hold” for the long run – benefiting from secular trends like U.S. economic growth and rising wealth, all under the stewardship of one of the most respected management teams on Wall Street.

3. Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) – Pharma Powerhouse Revolutionizing Weight Loss

Company Overview: Eli Lilly, a 147-year-old pharmaceutical company based in Indianapolis, has transformed itself in recent years into one of the fastest-growing large-cap biotech players. Long known for its diabetes medications (like insulin and Trulicity), Lilly is now at the forefront of the new class of GLP-1 hormone drugs that are drastically improving outcomes in diabetes and obesity. Its drug Mounjaro (tirzepatide) for type 2 diabetes – and the newly branded Zepbound version for obesity – have seen unprecedented demand. This, along with Lilly’s robust pipeline in obesity, Alzheimer’s, cancer, and other fields, has made it the world’s most valuable healthcare company by market cap as of late 2025 ^[110], even surpassing Johnson & Johnson. Lilly’s market capitalization stands around $800+ billion ^[111], after a huge run-up in its stock price over the past two years thanks to clinical and commercial successes.

Stock Performance: Lilly’s stock is currently trading near $863 per share ^[112], not far from its all-time high. It has climbed ~5% year-to-date (and much more over a multi-year span) ^[113]. At this price, Lilly’s valuation is rich – about 54× trailing earnings and ~27× forward earnings ^[114]. Such a high P/E reflects the market’s expectation of continued rapid growth from Lilly’s new drugs. While that valuation might give some investors pause, it’s important to note Lilly’s earnings are expanding so quickly that the forward multiple is half the trailing – a sign that “earnings are catching up”. Indeed, after its latest results, some analysts raised 2025 EPS forecasts toward $22–$23, putting the stock closer to 37× next year’s earnings ^[115]. Lilly also pays a dividend (current yield ~0.7% ^[116]), though the focus here is primarily on growth, not income.

Explosive Revenue & Earnings Growth: The big story is Lilly’s phenomenal growth trajectory, driven by its weight-loss and diabetes franchise. In Q3 2025, Eli Lilly’s revenue surged 54% year-over-year to $17.6 billion ^[117] ^[118] – a staggering jump for a company of its size. This blew past analyst expectations (Wall Street was looking for ~$16.0B) ^[119] ^[120]. Quarterly adjusted earnings per share came in at $7.02, massively up from just $1.18 a year ago (helped by one-time gains, but even non-GAAP EPS was over $7) ^[121]. To put that in perspective, Lilly earned more in one quarter than it used to in most full years, thanks to its new drug launches. The company has now raised its full-year 2025 forecast twice, most recently after Q3 – reflecting “strong performance year to date, mainly driven by the robust growth of Mounjaro and Zepbound,” according to Lilly’s report ^[122]. Executives increased 2025 revenue guidance to ~$63–63.5B (from ~$61B) and EPS guidance correspondingly ^[123].

The clear growth engine: Mounjaro/Zepbound. These are essentially the same molecule (tirzepatide), sold under different names for diabetes vs. obesity indications. In Q3, Mounjaro sales hit $6.52 billion globally, up 109% YoY ^[124], while Zepbound (obesity) contributed $3.59 billion, up 185% YoY ^[125]. Together that’s over $10B in a single quarter from tirzepatide – simply unheard of for a drug on the market only ~2 years. Not only did they beat expectations by wide margins ^[126] ^[127], but Lilly is taking market share from its primary competitor, Novo Nordisk, which markets Ozempic and Wegovy (semaglutide). Lilly’s management noted that Mounjaro/Zepbound are capturing patients who might otherwise use Novo’s drugs ^[128], thanks to tirzepatide’s strong efficacy (many patients lose even more weight on Lilly’s drug). International demand has been especially robust – ex-U.S. Mounjaro sales were nearly $3B this quarter, up from just $728M a year ago ^[129] ^[130]. In fact, international uptake by cash-paying obesity patients was so strong it added significantly to the beat: Guggenheim analysts said overseas Mounjaro revenue exceeded their forecast by almost $1B ^[131]. Lilly disclosed that about three-quarters of international Mounjaro sales came from obesity patients paying out-of-pocket (since formal obesity approvals are still rolling out abroad) ^[132]. This indicates enormous pent-up demand for effective weight-loss treatments globally.

Recent News & Catalysts: Alongside its earnings, Lilly announced exciting pipeline news. It confirmed that its next-generation obesity treatment – an oral GLP-1 pill called orforglipron – achieved ~12% weight loss in trials ^[133] and the company is seeking FDA approval on a potentially accelerated timeline ^[134] ^[135]. Under a new FDA “priority” voucher program, orforglipron meets 3 out of 4 criteria (innovative, addresses a health crisis – obesity, and involves U.S. manufacturing) ^[136], meaning it could get a fast-track 1–2 month review instead of the usual 10–12 months ^[137]. Lilly is submitting the approval package this quarter ^[138]. An approval in 2026 of the first ever oral GLP-1 weight-loss drug would be a game-changer, as it offers a pill alternative to weekly injections like Wegovy and Zepbound. Analysts see orforglipron as potentially hugely expanding the market (many more patients might try a pill than an injection). Lilly is also advancing other obesity candidates, like retatrutide (a “triple agonist” in Phase 3) ^[139], aiming to cover all bases in obesity treatment.

Beyond weight loss, Lilly’s pipeline has delivered notable wins: it recently gained FDA approval for donanemab, an Alzheimer’s drug (approved in Q4 2025, brand name to be Kisunla, following competitor Biogen/Eisai’s Leqembi). Donanemab showed it can significantly slow early Alzheimer’s progression, and while initial sales may be moderate, it’s a multi-billion opportunity long-term. Lilly also got approval for Inluriyo (imlunestrant) in advanced breast cancer ^[140]. The company has been very active on the M&A front this year, acquiring several smaller biotechs: e.g. Versanis (for another obesity agent), Sigilon (cell therapy for diabetes), Verve Therapeutics (gene therapy for heart disease) ^[141], and just last week announcing a $1.1B deal to buy Adverum Biotechnologies for its gene therapy for wet macular degeneration (eye disease) ^[142]. These moves show Lilly isn’t resting on its laurels; it’s expanding into new modalities like gene therapy and diversifying beyond GLP-1s.

Market Sentiment & Analyst Commentary: Investor enthusiasm around Lilly is high – some call it “one of the most transformative growth stories in Big Pharma”. The stock did pull back slightly (~5%) from its peak after Novo Nordisk (its rival) reported slightly lower-than-expected data on a competitor oral drug, which spooked the market on obesity drug hype. But Lilly’s Q3 results quickly reaffirmed its leadership. After the earnings beat-and-raise, Lilly’s stock jumped ~5% in one day ^[143] ^[144]. Analysts overwhelmingly raised targets; even a few who had cautioned on valuation are conceding Lilly’s execution is superb. Notably, Cantor Fitzgerald’s analyst Carter Gould said Lilly had “the strongest third-quarter earnings report he had seen so far” this season ^[145], though he noted some overhangs from potential U.S. drug price negotiations. A Berenberg analyst did downgrade Lilly to Hold (from Buy) citing that expectations are extremely high, but their new target ($830 ^[146]) is basically where the stock already trades – hardly bearish on fundamentals. Conversely, many others remain very bullish: for example, Bahl & Gaynor’s COO Kevin Gade, an institutional investor, praised Lilly’s quarter, saying “international Mounjaro demand was a strong driver of the beat-and-raise… showing the dynamism of Lilly’s business model.” ^[147]. In other words, Lilly isn’t relying only on U.S. sales or one product – it’s demonstrating a nimble ability to capture global opportunities.

Lilly currently has a consensus Buy rating, though not as unanimous as some tech stocks – out of ~20 analysts, roughly 12 Buy, 7 Hold, 1 Sell (the holds largely due to valuation). The median price target is around $600 (which the stock has overshot), but we expect targets to be revised upward given the new guidance. Importantly, analysts project extraordinary earnings growth: consensus sees Lilly’s EPS roughly doubling from 2024 to 2025, and rising further in 2026 as more obesity patients come on therapy ^[148]. This growth is why investors are willing to pay a premium multiple.

Financial Health: Lilly’s financial position is strong. The flood of revenue from new products is boosting cash flow; year-to-date free cash flow is up dramatically. Lilly has been reinvesting heavily (capex in new manufacturing plants for its injectable and oral drugs – meeting demand has been a challenge but they’re scaling up supply). It carries some debt but at very manageable levels (debt/EBITDA is low, and it has solid credit ratings). The dividend, while modest yield, has been increased for 9 straight years. With payout ratio under 50%, Lilly could continue growing the dividend annually. However, management’s priority now is investment in growth opportunities, which makes sense given the high ROI on new drug development.

One number to highlight: Some analysts foresee the obesity drug market reaching $150 billion by 2030 ^[149], and Lilly is extremely well positioned to capture a big share of that alongside Novo Nordisk. If that pie materializes, Lilly’s current revenue (~$63B for 2025E) could still have a long runway, especially as new indications (like sleep apnea, NASH, etc.) are explored for GLP-1 drugs.

Risks and Considerations: The enthusiasm around Lilly does come with a few caveats. Competition is intensifying: Novo Nordisk is a formidable rival with multiple GLP-1 drugs and combination therapies in development. Pfizer and others are also working on oral weight-loss drugs, although Pfizer hit setbacks. It’s essentially a two-horse race for now (Lilly vs Novo), but that could change over years. Supply constraints have been an issue – in 2023–24, both Lilly and Novo struggled to manufacture enough drug to meet obesity demand. If production doesn’t keep up, sales might be capped in the short term (Lilly has invested billions in new facilities to address this). Regulatory/pricing risk: The U.S. government is pushing to negotiate Medicare drug prices on expensive medications. Currently, weight-loss drugs are not covered by Medicare, but diabetes drugs are. If down the road Medicare or insurers negotiate big discounts or if payers push back on coverage due to cost (these GLP-1s list for ~$1,000/month), it could slow adoption. However, given the broad benefits (e.g. obesity drugs also reduce risks of other diseases), many expect insurance coverage to expand, not shrink.

Another risk: High expectations baked in. The stock’s valuation leaves little room for error. If Lilly’s growth were to slow unexpectedly or a safety issue emerged (for example, there have been rumors of concerns about pancreatitis or other side effects with GLP-1 drugs; so far data haven’t shown alarming signals, but it’s something to watch), the stock could correct. Also, being at the cutting edge, Lilly’s pipeline has both huge upside and the usual pharma risk of trial failures.

Long-Term Growth Drivers: Lilly’s future looks bright not only due to obesity/diabetes, but also because it is branching into new therapeutic areas. It is developing cardiovascular drugs (through the Versanis and Verve deals – possibly gene editing for high cholesterol), pain management (acquisition of Sigilon for diabetes and SiteOne for non-opioid pain drug ^[150]), oncology (it has a promising KRAS-mutated cancer drug in trials, and just launched Jaypirca for lymphoma), and neuroscience (besides Alzheimer’s, it has migraine drug Emgality, etc.). This breadth gives it multiple shots on goal. But unquestionably, the GLP-1 franchise will be the profit engine for years to come. On that front, Lilly is researching higher-dose versions of tirzepatide, combination therapies (GLP-1 + GIP + glucagon agonist in one), and even preventative uses (trials are exploring if these drugs can reduce risks of heart attack in obese patients or help in conditions like heart failure with obesity). The potential patient population is massive – over 750 million obese people globally, and hundreds of millions with diabetes or pre-diabetes.

Bottom Line on LLY: Eli Lilly stands out as a top stock pick due to its unique position at the nexus of a healthcare revolution. The company’s innovation in weight-loss treatments is not just yielding commercial success, but arguably changing the standard of care for metabolic disease. Investors have been rewarded, and there could be more to come as Lilly continues to beat expectations. While the stock isn’t cheap and volatility is possible, many analysts argue the upside justifies the valuation. For instance, the team at Pharmaceutical Technology noted Lilly’s recent dominance even as rival Novo faced leadership change and cost cuts – Lilly “reinforces [its] lead in [the] weight-loss market” with each successful quarter ^[151] ^[152]. If one is looking for a high-growth play in the healthcare sector, Lilly is a prime candidate. It offers exposure to the booming obesity/diabetes drug theme, backed by a deep pipeline and solid execution. Just be mindful that it’s a long-term story; short-term pullbacks can happen, but dips have often proven to be buying opportunities in this name. As Kevin Gade (Bahl & Gaynor) put it, Lilly’s performance “shows the dynamism” of its business ^[153] – a quality that should serve investors well in the years ahead.

4. Exxon Mobil (XOM) – Energy Giant with High Yield and Strategic Growth

Company Overview: Exxon Mobil is an American integrated energy behemoth and, by many measures, one of the largest oil & gas companies in the world. It explores for and produces crude oil and natural gas (upstream), refines petroleum into fuels and chemicals (downstream and chemical segments), and is increasingly investing in low-carbon technologies like carbon capture. Exxon has a presence in every major producing region, from the Permian Basin in Texas to offshore Guyana to LNG projects worldwide. With over 4 million barrels of oil-equivalent production per day ^[154], Exxon plays a critical role in global energy supply. The company’s sheer scale and efficient operations have historically made it a cash flow machine, especially in periods of strong commodity prices. In 2022, Exxon earned record profits amid a post-pandemic oil boom. Now in 2025, it’s focused on disciplined growth and shareholder returns, even as oil prices have moderated from recent highs.

Stock and Dividend: Exxon’s stock is a favorite among dividend investors and value seekers. Shares trade around $114–115 in early November ^[155]. The stock has been relatively flat year-to-date (up a few percent), underperforming the broader market as oil prices oscillated. But that stability belies significant cash generation. At $114, Exxon yields about 3.6% in dividends ^[156] – a very attractive payout in today’s market. In fact, Exxon has just raised its quarterly dividend to $1.03/share for Q4 2025 ^[157] ^[158], the latest in a long string of annual increases. This marks a 4% bump from $0.99 prior, and on an annualized basis ($4.12), confirms Exxon’s status as a reliable dividend grower. The company has paid and raised dividends for over 40 consecutive years, making it a Dividend Aristocrat. With the new hike, management signaled confidence in future cash flows. Even after the increase, the dividend payout ratio is moderate (~40% of expected 2025 earnings), so the yield looks well-supported by fundamentals.

Exxon also returns cash via aggressive share buybacks. It is on track to complete a $20 billion share repurchase program in 2025 ^[159] ^[160]. By year-end, Exxon will have bought back roughly 25% of its shares over four years ^[161] ^[162] – a remarkable reduction that boosts per-share earnings. These buybacks, combined with the dividend, put total shareholder yield in the high single digits.

Valuation-wise, Exxon trades around 15.8× trailing earnings, with a forward P/E also near 15× ^[163] given relatively flat EPS projections. Its enterprise value/EBITDA is approximately 6×, and it’s valued at about 1.8× book value. These are reasonable multiples – neither extremely cheap nor expensive for Big Oil. Importantly, current valuations likely do not price in much growth, offering potential upside if Exxon’s new projects deliver (more on that shortly). Wall Street analysts have an average 12-month price target of roughly $129 ^[164], ~13% above today’s price, with some bull cases into the $150s ^[165]. That suggests a nice total return potential when combined with the 3.6% yield.

Recent Financial Performance: Exxon’s Q3 2025 earnings, announced Oct 31, provide a good snapshot. Despite a year-over-year drop in oil prices (Brent crude averaged ~$68 in Q3, down ~13% YoY ^[166] ^[167]), Exxon managed to beat profit expectations. Adjusted earnings were $8.1 billion (or $1.88 per share), topping consensus of $1.82 ^[168]. This was achieved by significantly growing production and maintaining relatively strong refining and chemical margins. Exxon’s total output hit 4.8 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, up from 4.6 Mboepd in Q2 ^[169]. The growth came largely from two key areas: the Permian Basin (U.S. shale) and Guyana (offshore). Guyana, in particular, has been a jewel – Exxon and partners have made over 30 discoveries there, and production is ramping faster than expected with low breakeven costs. The Q3 results highlighted record output in those regions offsetting any OPEC+ curbs elsewhere ^[170].

By segment, Exxon earned $5.7B from upstream (pumping oil & gas) and $1.8B from refining in Q3 ^[171]. Chemicals & specialty products added roughly $0.6B. One soft spot: free cash flow was $6.3B, down from $11.3B a year ago ^[172]. This drop in FCF was partly because Exxon spent on acquisitions – notably, it’s in the process of a mega-merger with Pioneer Natural Resources (a $60B all-stock deal announced in Oct 2025 to massively expand Exxon’s Permian acreage). Exxon also incurred some one-time restructuring costs ($510 million) tied to streamlining operations ^[173] ^[174]. However, the market didn’t mind the lower FCF because those investments (Permian land, etc.) are geared toward boosting long-term output. In fact, Exxon’s shares were “little changed” around $114 after earnings ^[175], as investors saw the earnings beat and dividend hike as evidence of solid performance.

Shareholder-Friendly Moves: Exxon’s commitment to shareholder returns came through clearly. As noted, it raised the quarterly dividend to $1.03 ^[176] – management’s perspective is that gradually increasing the dividend is a priority. On the earnings call, CFO Kathryn Mikells fielded a question on why the dividend growth wasn’t higher; she responded, “We feel like we’re in a pretty good place,” emphasizing Exxon takes a long-term view on capital returns and benchmarks itself against peers ^[177]. In other words, Exxon aims to provide competitive yield while retaining enough cash to invest in projects and bolt-on acquisitions. The $20B share buyback for 2023–25 is also nearly complete ^[178]. Exxon has been among the most aggressive in reducing share count, which bodes well for future EPS and dividend growth (fewer shares means each share’s dividend costs the company less total cash).

Strategic Growth Initiatives: Unlike some past periods where Big Oil was penny-pinching, Exxon is investing for the future. CEO Darren Woods highlighted on the call that Exxon is actively “evaluating acquisition opportunities” and “continuing to invest in technology to increase the amount of oil [it] can pull out” of existing fields ^[179]. A prime example is the planned acquisition of Pioneer Natural Resources – this will make Exxon the dominant player in the Permian shale basin, adding huge reserves and production potential in a region where new drilling can quickly turn into barrels. Exxon’s technical prowess can likely improve Pioneer’s well yields, and the scale should reduce costs. The deal is expected to close in 2024 and should be immediately accretive to production and cash flow.

Another growth pillar is Guyana. Exxon and its partner Hess (which Exxon is also acquiring, announced mid-2025) are producing ~400k barrels/day there now and see potential for over 1.2 million by 2027 as new FPSO vessels come online. Guyana oil is very low-cost (some of the cheapest globally, <$35/bbl breakeven), so even if oil prices dip, it remains profitable. Exxon also made a massive new gas discovery off Cyprus and is expanding LNG (liquefied natural gas) projects – e.g. in Mozambique and perhaps the U.S. Gulf Coast. LNG demand is booming with Europe needing non-Russian gas. These projects will play out over years but underscore that Exxon still has growth opportunities, contrary to the notion of oil being a shrinking industry.

Additionally, Exxon is investing in low-carbon ventures – it’s spending about $17B through 2027 on carbon capture, hydrogen, and biofuels. Recently, Exxon agreed to acquire Denbury Inc. (closed 2023) to gain a leading carbon pipeline network for CO₂ sequestration. While these initiatives are small revenue contributors now, they position Exxon for an energy transition future and might yield decent returns if carbon pricing or sequestration markets develop. They also help Exxon demonstrate to investors and regulators that it’s working on emissions reductions (Exxon’s goal is net-zero operational emissions by 2050).

Analyst & Investor Sentiment: Wall Street’s stance on Exxon is mildly bullish. Per MarketBeat and Nasdaq data, the consensus rating is “Moderate Buy” with price targets clustered around the $120s ^[180]. For example, Scotiabank recently maintained a Sector Outperform with a ~$130 target ^[181]. The high end, as mentioned, is $156 (likely from Wells Fargo or Piper Sandler) ^[182], which assumes higher oil prices ahead. There are also a few hold/neutral ratings – typically those analysts argue that much of the good news (Guyana success, etc.) is priced in and that oil prices could soften. However, even they often laud Exxon’s execution. A Seeking Alpha piece post-Q3 noted, “Exxon Mobil Q3’25 beats estimates with record production, dividend hike, and buybacks”, framing the stock as still undervalued ^[183]. Investors who want energy exposure often gravitate to Exxon for its stability and dividend. Indeed, with economic uncertainty, some fund managers favor Exxon as a defensive play – it has one of the safest dividends among high-yield stocks (incomeinvestors.com even ran a story on why Exxon’s 3.6% yield is “safer than investors think” ^[184]).

From a market perspective, energy stocks overall have lagged in 2025 as oil prices averaged lower than 2022–23. But many see a potential tailwind in 2026: OPEC has been cutting production to prop up prices, global demand is at record highs, and any China rebound or supply disruption could send oil back above $80. If that happens, Exxon’s profits would swell again, providing upside to estimates. It’s telling that Exxon’s stock barely fell even when oil dipped into the $60s this year – investors recognize Exxon’s resiliency.

Financials and Balance Sheet: Exxon’s balance sheet is strong. It carries about $40B of net debt, a relatively low leverage for a company generating $50+ billion in annual cash from operations. Its debt-to-equity is modest and interest coverage is huge. This gives Exxon flexibility to fund big deals (like Pioneer) partly in stock, partly cash, without straining finances. During the oil crash of 2020, Exxon did take on debt to maintain its dividend, but since then it has reduced debt significantly. Credit agencies rate Exxon AA-, reflecting low credit risk.

A key metric: Free Cash Flow Yield. Exxon’s FCF varies with oil price, but at $70–$80 Brent, it’s substantial. In 2022 (high prices) it was over $60B; in 2023 and 2024 it moderated. For 2025, analysts project around $45B FCF (including capex of ~$25B). At the current market cap ~$480B, that’s ~9.4% FCF yield – quite attractive in equity markets. Even after dividends (~$17B/year), there’s ample leftover for buybacks and investments. This underpins why Exxon can retire so many shares and raise payouts while still pursuing acquisitions.

Outlook – Opportunities and Risks: On the opportunity side, Exxon can benefit if oil or gas prices rise. For instance, some forecasters see a tighter oil market in 2026 as spare capacity is limited – any surprise demand uptick or OPEC cut reversal could push Brent back to $85–$90, which would be a boon for Exxon’s upstream earnings. Similarly, natural gas prices (LNG especially) could climb if Asian demand surges or winters are cold. Exxon is also heavily investing in the Permian shale. With Pioneer’s assets (assuming the deal closes by early 2024), Exxon aims to apply new drilling technology to improve well recoveries. Citi analysts estimate Exxon’s Permian output could triple by 2027, adding hundreds of thousands of barrels per day ^[185]. Shale drilling is flexible and can ramp up quickly if prices warrant.

Another opportunity: Downstream margins. Refining margins have been strong lately, especially in Europe (TotalEnergies noted margins up 300% YoY due to Russian fuel bans ^[186]). Exxon’s global refining system profits when crack spreads (the difference between crude and gasoline/jet prices) are high. With underinvestment in refining capacity industry-wide, margins may stay healthy, contributing billions to Exxon that many don’t account for.

Now, risks. Commodity price risk is the big one – if global recession hits and oil demand falls, prices could sink, cutting Exxon’s earnings. However, OPEC likely would respond with cuts to prevent a collapse. Exxon’s breakevens are far lower than many competitors; even at $50 oil it remains profitable, albeit less so. Regulatory/environmental risk: Exxon faces long-term risk from climate change policy. While the energy transition to renewables is a gradual multi-decade process, any aggressive policy (carbon taxes, EV adoption hurting gasoline demand, etc.) could eventually taper oil demand. Exxon counters this by diversifying into carbon capture and lobbying for “lower carbon solutions” that still involve oil/gas. In the shorter term, one risk is windfall taxes – some countries have imposed extra taxes on oil company profits (as seen in Europe in 2022). If oil prices spike again, there’s potential political pressure for such measures, though in the U.S. it’s less likely with the current government stance.

Geopolitical and Operational Risks: Exxon operates in various countries; geopolitical tensions (e.g. a conflict that disrupts supply routes, or sanctions) can affect it. That said, sometimes geopolitical events raise oil prices, indirectly benefiting integrated majors. Operationally, big projects can have delays or cost overruns, though Exxon has been historically good at project execution. Climate activists and ESG-focused investors have also put pressure on Exxon (remember Engine No.1’s activist campaign that won board seats in 2021). This could push Exxon to invest more in clean energy or alter strategy, but so far Exxon is balancing shareholder returns with measured green investments.

Bottom Line on XOM: Exxon Mobil offers a compelling case as a value play with income in an otherwise pricey market. You’re getting a 3.6% dividend yield that’s grown and is expected to keep growing ^[187], plus buybacks that steadily increase your ownership stake in the company. Meanwhile, the stock has a reasonable ~15 P/E and potential upside if energy markets tighten. In effect, the market seems to be assuming “lower forever” oil prices, but any surprise to the upside could re-rate stocks like Exxon. Even if oil just stays in the $70s, Exxon’s current shareholder yields (dividend + buyback) near ~7% mean you’re being paid handsomely to wait.

Exxon is also proving it can adapt and thrive. As Reuters noted, Exxon’s strategy to pump more in key areas allowed it to offset lower oil prices and still beat earnings estimates ^[188] ^[189]. CEO Darren Woods’ quote captures Exxon’s forward view: “The industry has to bring on more barrels just to stand still… that keeps us focused on the medium- to long-term” ^[190]. In other words, decline rates in existing fields mean continuous investment is needed – and Exxon is doing that investing while many competitors pull back. This could increase its market share over time. For an investor, Exxon Mobil provides exposure to the indispensable oil & gas sector with relatively lower risk (given its diversification and financial strength). It’s the kind of stock that can anchor a portfolio by providing steady cash returns, plus it has the possibility of capital appreciation if oil demand surprises to the upside or if Exxon’s strategic bets (like Guyana, LNG, or even carbon capture monetization) pay off.

In summary, Exxon Mobil is a “buy” for those seeking reliable dividends and a hedge on global economic growth, with the bonus of well-managed growth projects. It’s not a flashy high-growth tech stock, but in a diversified set of top picks, Exxon plays the role of the dependable income generator with a chance to benefit from any resurgence in commodity prices or energy sector rotation.

5. Alibaba Group (BABA) – Undervalued Chinese Tech Leader with Renewed Momentum

Company Overview: Alibaba Group is often called the “Amazon of China,” but in truth it’s a sprawling tech conglomerate with businesses in e-commerce, cloud computing, digital media, fintech, logistics, and more. Alibaba’s core is its e-commerce platforms – Taobao and Tmall – which dominate Chinese online shopping. It also runs AliExpress (global retail), Cainiao (logistics), Ant Group (fintech, via a one-third stake), and Alibaba Cloud, among other ventures. Alibaba was China’s most valuable company a few years ago, but regulatory crackdowns on tech and a slowing Chinese economy caused the stock to swoon from 2021 to 2023. Now, in 2025, Alibaba is in the midst of a comeback effort: it has reorganized into a holding company of six semi-independent units (with plans to potentially spin off or list some of them) to unlock value, and it’s refocusing on efficiency and growth after navigating policy headwinds. With China’s consumer sector stabilizing and the government seemingly easing off its stricter oversight, Alibaba stands to benefit significantly from any revival in Chinese consumption and from its own strategic pivots (like embracing AI).

Stock Price and Valuation: Alibaba’s U.S.-listed ADR currently trades around $167–$168 ^[191]. That’s up more than 50% from its 12-month lows near $110 – indeed, the stock is up ~52% year-over-year as of November ^[192], marking a strong recovery. However, it’s still well below its all-time high (~$317 in late 2020). The market cap at ~$168 is roughly $375 billion ^[193], making Alibaba one of the largest companies in China but far off its peak of $800B+. This relatively depressed valuation comes despite Alibaba’s immense scale: in its last fiscal year (FY2024), it generated about $130B in revenue and $15B in net income. The stock’s valuation metrics are strikingly low for a tech leader – Alibaba trades around 16–17× trailing earnings ^[194] and only ~9.8× forward earnings ^[195], according to Zacks and Nasdaq analysis. In other words, the stock’s price-to-earnings is nearly half that of global peers (U.S. tech giants often trade at 20–30× forward earnings). This discount is largely due to perceived China risk (regulatory, geopolitical, and economic).

For value-oriented investors, Alibaba’s undervaluation is a key thesis. As Nasdaq’s analysis notes, “Alibaba is trading at a forward P/E of 9.8×, significantly below its industry’s 19× – suggesting an attractive entry point given strong fundamentals.” ^[196]. Additionally, Alibaba’s price-to-sales is around 2×, and it has a substantial net cash position of over $51.9 billion ^[197] on its balance sheet. Stripping out the cash, the business is even cheaper. The company has also been aggressively buying back shares – it repurchased $11.3B worth in the past 9 months, reducing its share count by 5% ^[198] – which indicates management’s confidence that the stock is undervalued. Furthermore, Alibaba has announced plans to spin off or IPO some units (like Cainiao logistics, Alibaba Cloud, and its international commerce arm) which could unlock value by getting separate market valuations for those businesses.

Recent Business Performance: Alibaba’s latest reported quarter (the quarter ending Sept 30, 2025) showed a company returning to growth mode. Revenue for the quarter was RMB 221.9B (approx $30.3B), up about 9% year-on-year ^[199] – a notable acceleration from low single-digit growth in 2024. Particularly encouraging was the re-acceleration of its core China commerce: customer management revenue (the fees and ad revenue from merchants on Taobao/Tmall) grew 9% YoY ^[200], after being flat or declining in prior periods. This suggests Chinese consumer spending is picking up, or at least Alibaba is monetizing better via ads and services. The company credited successful monetization efforts (like new software service fees for merchants and improved ad tools) for this uptick ^[201]. Another driver was Alibaba’s cost optimization – they’ve streamlined operations post-crackdown, leading to better margins. In fact, net income has grown faster than revenue due to efficiency gains.

Beyond domestic commerce, international commerce is a bright spot. Alibaba’s AliExpress and other overseas retail ventures saw robust growth. For instance, Alibaba launched AliExpress Local Marketplace in the U.S., allowing American small businesses to sell with more control ^[202]. Early results are promising: during a “March Expo” event, orders from U.S. SME buyers on Alibaba’s platform rose 27% YoY ^[203], with categories like sports gear (e.g. pickleball products up +197%) performing well ^[204]. This shows Alibaba making inroads outside China, diversifying its growth.

Meanwhile, Alibaba Cloud (the largest cloud provider in China and 3rd globally by some measures) has returned to growth after a brief slowdown. Perhaps more exciting is Alibaba’s push into generative AI. It has developed its own large language model called “Qwen”, which has quickly gained traction among developers ^[205]. Over 90,000 derivative AI models have been built on Qwen, and 290,000 developers have accessed its API ^[206] – making it one of the most popular open AI model ecosystems in China. Alibaba Cloud’s AI-related product revenue has grown triple-digits for six consecutive quarters ^[207]. To capitalize, Alibaba is committing to invest more in AI infrastructure over the next 3 years than it did in the past 10 ^[208]. It’s essentially positioning Alibaba Cloud as the go-to AI platform in Asia, analogous to what AWS or Azure are doing with AI in the West.

Another development: Alibaba’s affiliate Ant Group (which runs Alipay and other fintech services) has weathered its regulatory troubles and recently received approval to raise capital. Ant is also innovating in AI – notably, it found a way to combine Chinese and U.S. chips to reduce AI training costs by 20% ^[209] (circumventing some export restrictions on cutting-edge chips). Alibaba’s one-third ownership of Ant could eventually be monetized if Ant Group re-files for an IPO, though that’s uncertain. Still, Ant’s stabilization is positive for Alibaba as it contributes to equity income and has synergies with e-commerce (Alipay drives payments and financial services on Alibaba platforms).

Recent News & Catalysts: Regulators in China have eased off the tech crackdown that started in 2020. In fact, the government is now signaling support for platform companies to help boost the economy. Alibaba’s founder Jack Ma even returned to China in 2023 after a period abroad, indicating a thaw. In late 2024 and 2025, Beijing rolled out policies to stimulate consumption, which should help Alibaba’s core commerce. Additionally, Alibaba’s board approved the biggest overhaul in its history: splitting the company into six units (Cloud Intelligence, Taobao-Tmall Commerce, Local Services, Global Digital Commerce, Cainiao Smart Logistics, and Digital Media). Each unit can potentially seek its own funding or IPO. Already, the Cainiao logistics arm IPO launched in Hong Kong in late 2025, raising $1B+ at a valuation around $20B. This move unlocked some value and provided a blueprint for how Alibaba might partially monetize other units like the lucrative Cloud division (which could be worth $50B+ on its own by some estimates). Such “sum-of-parts” unlocking is a key catalyst investors are watching – if Alibaba proceeds with a listing of its cloud unit or international e-commerce (which includes Lazada in SE Asia, Trendyol in Turkey, etc.), it could highlight that the market is undervaluing Alibaba’s pieces.

On the AI front, Alibaba just announced it would open-source its Qwen AI models for certain use cases, aiming to drive adoption and become a standard platform for enterprise AI in China. This is a strategic move to gain market share over rivals like Tencent and Baidu in China’s AI race.

Analyst and Investor Sentiment: Sentiment on Alibaba among Western analysts has improved moderately after a long pessimistic spell. The stock is a bit contrarian – many U.S. investors shy away due to China macro concerns. But those who are bullish emphasize the valuation disconnect and Alibaba’s still-dominant market position. Morningstar, for instance, lists BABA as one of the most undervalued wide-moat Chinese companies as of mid-2025 ^[210]. They see significant upside if Alibaba can even partially return to its historical growth trend. Zacks Investment Research recently gave Alibaba a Rank #1 “Strong Buy” rating ^[211], highlighting its improving earnings revisions and low valuation. Moreover, big investment banks in China/HK have turned positive: Bernstein notably raised its price target to $200 and upgraded the stock, citing Alibaba’s advances in AI and signs of consumer recovery ^[212]. That $200 target implies ~20% upside from current levels.

There are still risks (we’ll discuss below), so some analysts are cautious. The average Wall Street rating is a Buy, but with a minority of Holds. The median price target is around $130–$135 for the Hong Kong share (which equates to roughly $135–$140 for the NYSE BABA ADR), but those haven’t been updated to reflect the recent rally; many are likely to move higher if results keep improving. Notably, as of September 2025, analysts’ consensus earnings forecast for next fiscal year was RMB 73 ($10) per share ^[213] – a +50% YoY EPS growth expected, thanks to cost cuts and cloud profitability. If Alibaba delivers that, the current stock price is extremely low at ~17× that forward earnings.

Investors who focus on fundamentals note Alibaba’s robust financial position: its net cash ($52B) and investments (stake in Ant, others) account for a big chunk of its market cap. If you adjust for those, the core business might be trading at a single-digit multiple of earnings – a value investor’s dream for a company with Alibaba’s assets.

Opportunities and Growth Drivers: Alibaba’s medium-term growth will come from several avenues:

Chinese Consumption Recovery: If China’s economy continues reopening and stimulus measures gain traction, consumer spending should lift, directly boosting Alibaba’s commerce revenue. With ~900 million annual active consumers in China, even small increases in per-customer spending translate to huge GMV (Gross Merchandise Volume) gains.
Monetization Improvements: Alibaba has introduced new monetization tools for merchants (e.g., charging for certain services, advertising innovations). The fact that customer management revenue grew faster than GMV suggests better monetization per transaction ^[214], which can continue.
Cloud Computing: Alibaba Cloud is the dominant player in China with ~34% market share. Cloud adoption in China still lags the West, leaving years of growth ahead. Alibaba Cloud’s revenue is growing again, and as mentioned, AI workloads can supercharge demand (OpenAI-like startups in China will likely use Alibaba Cloud’s AI chips and services). Also, Alibaba Cloud just reached profitability at the operating level – so future growth will contribute meaningfully to Alibaba’s bottom line.
International Expansion: Alibaba’s Global Digital Commerce unit (which includes Lazada in Southeast Asia, Trendyol, Daraz in South Asia, etc.) is growing double digits. Southeast Asia’s e-commerce is booming, and Alibaba is investing to challenge Sea Limited’s Shopee and others. There’s substantial upside if Lazada can capture more market share in places like Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam. AliExpress is also popular in Europe for low-cost goods – Alibaba’s local marketplace initiative in the U.S. is small but interesting (taking on eBay/Amazon for certain niches).
New Business & AI: Alibaba’s venture into AI-assisted services, such as the AI travel assistant “AskMe” on its Fliggy travel platform ^[215], can differentiate its offerings. The rebound in China’s travel sector (Fliggy saw >20% increase in certain travel bookings ^[216]) combined with AI features could make Alibaba a bigger player in travel bookings (a space now dominated by Trip.com in China).
Shareholder-Friendly Moves: As discussed, spinoffs/IPO of units could unlock value. Also, Alibaba’s board expanded its share buyback program to $25B last year, and they’ve been utilizing it. If the stock remains depressed, they could buy back even more shares, boosting EPS.

Risks: While Alibaba appears very attractive, investors must consider the risks:

Regulatory/Government Intervention: This is the big one. While the crackdown has abated, the Chinese government still has significant influence. There remains a possibility of new regulations (for example, on data security, or a revival of anti-monopoly restrictions) especially for cloud or fintech segments. However, recent tone suggests supportive policies – the government wants tech companies to help spur growth.
Geopolitical risk: U.S.-China tensions can weigh on Chinese stocks. Tariffs, sanctions (in tech components), or in worst case an ADR delisting (the good news: Alibaba has already complied with audit requirements under the Holding Foreign Companies Accountable Act, reducing delisting risk) – all these can affect sentiment and operations. Additionally, any escalation around Taiwan or other geopolitical events can roil markets.
Economic slowdowns: If China’s economy were to slip (e.g., property sector woes cause a broader downturn), consumer spending might not pick up as hoped, limiting Alibaba’s growth. So far, the government is managing a controlled slowdown, but it’s a factor to watch.
Competition: Domestically, Alibaba faces fierce competition from Pinduoduo (PDD) and JD.com in e-commerce. Pinduoduo has taken market share with its bargain-focused model and has expanded to the U.S. via Temu. Alibaba is responding with Taobao deals and by leveraging live-streaming e-commerce on Taobao. In cloud, Huawei and Tencent are competitors in China. While Alibaba leads, competition could pressure margins or slow growth in these segments.
Currency and Regulatory Structure: Alibaba’s earnings are in RMB, so currency fluctuations can affect the ADR in USD (though RMB is fairly stable). Also, Alibaba is structured as a VIE (variable interest entity) for foreign investors, which is standard for Chinese tech – changes in stance on VIEs could theoretically pose a risk (though China has signaled tolerance for existing VIEs).

Bottom Line on BABA: Alibaba offers a unique combination of value and growth. It’s a dominant franchise (wide economic moat in e-commerce & cloud) that for non-fundamental reasons (regulations, investor sentiment) is priced cheaply. If one believes in the resilience of China’s economy and the global growth of e-commerce and cloud, Alibaba is a compelling buy at these levels. As The Motley Fool highlighted, “for investors seeking exposure to both AI transformation and Asian e-commerce growth, Alibaba offers a unique value proposition at current levels.” ^[217]. The company has proven adaptable – from navigating regulatory challenges to reorganizing itself for flexibility. Now it appears to be back on offense: innovating in AI, expanding internationally, and refocusing on growth areas.

Investors should be patient and note the volatility that can accompany Chinese stocks due to headlines. But many risks seem priced in. Any concrete positive developments – say, a sustained pickup in retail spending, or the successful IPO of another Alibaba division, or easing U.S.-China trade tensions – could act as a catalyst for a significant re-rating of the stock. In the meantime, Alibaba’s ongoing share buybacks and strong cash flow provide a margin of safety.

In summary, Alibaba stands out as a diversified tech leader trading at a bargain valuation. It complements the other picks (mostly U.S.-focused) by giving exposure to emerging market growth and a different consumer base. With its core businesses stabilizing and new initiatives (like cloud AI) gaining steam, Alibaba could potentially deliver both near-term upside (if investor sentiment shifts) and long-term gains as its investments pay off. For those willing to look past the noise, Alibaba is a top stock to consider buying now in November 2025.

Sources:

Amazon Q3 2025 Earnings Highlights – CarbonCredits.com ^[218] ^[219] ^[220]; 24/7 Wall St. – Analyst Price Targets ^[221] ^[222]
JPMorgan Financials and Analyst Ratings – MarketBeat ^[223] ^[224]; Fortune (via Yahoo) – Dimon Earnings Comments ^[225]
Eli Lilly Q3 2025 Results – Zacks/Nasdaq ^[226] ^[227]; Reuters – Institutional & Analyst Quotes ^[228] ^[229]
Exxon Mobil Earnings and CEO Quote – Reuters ^[230] ^[231]; MarketBeat – Dividend Yield ^[232]
Alibaba Fundamentals and Zacks Analysis – Nasdaq/Zacks ^[233] ^[234]; Bernstein Upgrade – Investing/SeekingAlpha ^[235]; Nasdaq – “Strong Buy” Quote ^[236]