Adani Green Profit Surge Triggers Stock Rally – Analysts See More Upside Ahead

Profit jumps: Adani Green Energy Ltd (AGEL) posted a 25% year-on-year rise in consolidated net profit to ₹644 crore for Q2 FY2025-26 ^[1]. This marks strong bottom-line growth on the back of robust operational performance.
Flat revenue, strong sales: Revenue was nearly flat at around ₹3,008 crore ^[2], but power supply sales climbed ~20% to ₹2,776 crore in the quarter ^[3]. Higher generation from new renewable capacity boosted sales even as total income dipped about 4% YoY to ₹3,249 crore ^[4].
Capacity expansion: AGEL added 2.4 GW of renewable capacity in H1 FY26 and expanded operational capacity to 16.7 GW (up 49% YoY) ^[5] ^[6]. The company says it is on track for 5 GW of new capacity this fiscal and remains committed to its ambitious 50 GW by 2030 target ^[7].
Stock soars on results: Adani Green’s stock rallied as much as 14% intraday after the earnings release, reaching around ₹1,145 on Oct 29 ^[8]. Shares later pared some gains but are still up sharply this week. Other Adani group stocks also jumped, with Adani Total Gas up ~9% intraday on its results ^[9].
Forecast & outlook: Despite recent gains, Adani Green shares remain ~32% lower than a year ago (and ~46% below three-year highs) ^[10]. However, analysts are bullish – the stock has a “Buy” consensus and a median price target around ₹1,265 (per LSEG data) indicating further upside ^[11]. One brokerage (Ventura) even projects ₹2,142 in 24 months for AGEL, reflecting confidence in its growth trajectory ^[12].

Q2 Earnings Highlights – Strong Profit on Robust Power Sales

India’s renewable energy bellwether Adani Green delivered a solid quarterly performance. Net profit jumped about 25% year-on-year to ₹644 crore in Q2 FY26, up from ₹515 crore a year ago ^[13]. This surge came despite total income being largely flat – revenue from operations was ₹3,008 crore versus ₹3,005 crore in Q2 last year ^[14]. The top-line was steady, but the quality of revenue improved: income from the core power supply business (which makes up the bulk of revenues) rose 20% to ₹2,776 crore ^[15], supported by new capacity additions and higher utilization of renewable plants. The company’s EBITDA from power supply grew 19% as well, reflecting healthy margins ^[16]. According to an exchange filing, robust greenfield capacity additions (5.5 GW over the last year) and improved performance at new plants in resource-rich sites like Khavda (Gujarat) and Rajasthan drove the growth in revenue and earnings ^[17].

While operational revenue grew, total quarterly income actually dipped ~4% to ₹3,249 crore ^[18], possibly due to lower other income. Still, profitability improved markedly. Adani Green’s management noted that cash profit (a measure of operational cash flow) rose 8% YoY to ₹1,349 crore ^[19], indicating stronger cash generation. Notably, the firm’s solar and wind plants saw high utilization – the solar portfolio’s capacity utilization factor stood at 24.8% and wind at 37.8%, which the company considers robust ^[20]. Overall, the quarter’s results underscore that Adani Green’s core renewable power business is gathering momentum, translating capacity growth into steady revenues and profit gains ^[21]. The company has effectively capitalized on India’s aggressive clean energy push – India is targeting 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, and Adani Green’s performance shows it is riding that wave ^[22].

Rapid Capacity Growth and Future Plans

Adani Green’s earnings were bolstered by its breakneck expansion in capacity. In the first half of FY26 alone, the company commissioned 2,437 MW of new renewable projects (solar, wind, and hybrid) ^[23]. This H1 addition is 74% of the capacity it added in all of FY25 ^[24] – highlighting an accelerating growth pace. As of September 30, Adani Green’s operational renewable portfolio stands at 16.7 GW across 12 states, solidifying its status as India’s largest renewable energy developer ^[25] ^[26]. The operational capacity jumped 49% year-on-year, keeping the company on track to achieve its medium-term goals ^[27].

Management remains optimistic about reaching new milestones. “Having already added 2.4 GW renewable capacity in H1 FY26, we’re on a firm path to 5 GW capacity addition in FY26 and to our targeted 50 GW by 2030,” said CEO Ashish Khanna ^[28]. He noted that Adani Green is making “steady progress” on its massive 30 GW renewable project in Khavda, Gujarat – billed as the world’s largest single-location renewable energy park ^[29]. The company is deploying advanced technologies (like robotic solar installations) and digital tools to speed up execution and improve efficiency ^[30] ^[31]. As a result, energy sales in Q2 surged 39% year-on-year, reflecting both new capacity and strong plant performance ^[32].

In a striking illustration of its scale, Adani Green reported it produced 19.6 billion units of clean power in H1 FY26 – “enough to supply a country like Croatia for an entire year,” Khanna highlighted ^[33]. This achievement underpins Adani Green’s growing contribution to India’s renewable energy output. The company’s expansion spree aligns with India’s decarbonization goals, and management asserts that Adani Green will continue to “lead India’s energy transition” through sustained growth and innovation in the renewables space ^[34]. With 50 GW of capacity targeted by 2030, Adani Green would be among the largest renewable players globally, and it appears determined to hit that mark on schedule ^[35] ^[36].

Stock Market Reaction – Shares Spike as Sentiment Turns

Investors cheered Adani Green’s Q2 performance, sending the stock soaring in the immediate aftermath. On Wednesday, October 29, Adani Green’s share price jumped up to 14% in early trade, touching around ₹1,145 at intraday highs ^[37] ^[38]. It eventually closed with slightly lower gains, but the rally was notable – the broader Sensex was only modestly higher that day. The earnings announcement clearly buoyed market sentiment toward the company. In fact, the entire Adani Group saw a halo effect, with several affiliate stocks rallying. Adani Total Gas, which also reported Q2 results, climbed about 9% to ₹675 intraday ^[39] even though its profit actually fell ~12% year-on-year ^[40]. This suggests investors are focusing on revenue growth and future prospects rather than short-term profit dips. Another arm, Adani Energy Solutions (formerly Adani Transmission), posted a 21% drop in Q2 profit ^[41], yet its stock held firm and has been steady-to-positive in recent sessions.

The exuberant response marks a sharp turnaround from the pessimism Adani stocks faced earlier. At one point in March 2025, Adani Green had sunk to a 52-week low around ₹758 amid a broader group sell-off ^[42]. Even after the latest surge, the stock trades at roughly ₹1,050-1,060 levels – still about 32% below where it stood a year ago, and nearly 40% off its peak of ₹1,733 hit in November 2024 ^[43]. This longer-term underperformance followed a tumultuous period for the conglomerate (the group’s stocks were battered after allegations by a short-seller earlier in 2023). However, the tide seems to be turning. The recent earnings-led rallies indicate renewed investor confidence in the Adani companies’ fundamentals. “Adani Green Energy is seen as the bellwether of India’s renewable energy sector,” Reuters noted, and the firm’s growth underscores how it has “capitalized on India’s aggressive drive to expand clean power capacity” ^[44]. In other words, the market is recognizing that Adani Green’s underlying business – building and operating renewable power plants – remains strong and growing, which may help restore some of the lost market value.

Interestingly, the earnings momentum is not limited to Adani Green. Adani Enterprises, the flagship incubator of the group’s businesses, recently stunned the market with an almost eight-fold jump in its quarterly profit, which sent its stock up nearly 4% in mid-October ^[45]. Such group-wide performance improvements have helped shift the narrative. After months of scrutiny, the Adani Group is making a case that its companies continue to deliver growth. This has attracted bargain hunters and long-term investors back into these stocks, evident from the sharp rebounds in recent weeks.

Analyst Views and Forecast – More Room to Run?

Despite the stock’s rebound, many analysts believe Adani Green’s rally may have more legs. According to data compiled by LSEG (Refinitiv), the consensus rating on Adani Green is a “Buy,” with a median 12-month price target of around ₹1,265 per share ^[46]. That implies roughly 20–25% upside from current levels. In fact, the range of analyst targets goes even higher – some forecasts are above ₹1,400, and one notably bullish call projects the stock could potentially reach ₹2,142 in the next two years ^[47]. (That lofty target comes from Ventura Securities, reflecting an expectation of continued exponential growth in Adani Green’s capacity and earnings.) Such optimism suggests that professional investors see the recent profit surge as part of a sustainable trend, not a one-off blip.

Brokerages are highlighting Adani Green’s improving fundamentals and the policy tailwinds for renewables. The company’s aggressive capacity expansion, long-term power purchase agreements, and improving operational metrics underpin many positive recommendations. There are risks cited – for instance, Adani Green’s stock is highly volatile (with a one-year beta ~1.5) and carries a rich valuation relative to earnings ^[48]. But the bullish thesis is that rapid earnings growth will “grow into” the valuation. Moneycontrol reports that as of this week, seven out of seven analysts covering the stock have a buy or equivalent rating ^[49]. The sentiment is buoyed by expectations that India’s clean energy demand will soar and Adani Green, as a dominant player, will secure a large share of new projects.

Market experts also point out that Adani Green’s financial position has stabilized. The company has been refinancing debt and improving its cash flows, easing prior concerns about leverage. Quarterly EBITDA margins remain extremely high (over 86% this quarter) ^[50], thanks to the low operating costs of solar and wind assets. This means most of the revenue translates into operating profit, giving Adani Green healthy internal accruals to fuel expansion. “We are consistently adopting innovative renewable technologies and digitalizing our business to boost efficiency and safety,”CEO Khanna noted, emphasizing the company’s focus on execution ^[51]. That focus, coupled with government incentives for renewables, gives analysts confidence in predicting strong growth ahead for Adani Green.

In summary, Adani Green Energy’s Q2 results have reaffirmed its growth story. The company is rapidly scaling up clean power capacity and delivering higher profits, which in turn is restoring investor faith after a rocky period. Its stock’s big post-earnings pop and the upbeat analyst targets reflect a view that the worst may be behind the Adani Group and that this green energy flagship could continue to shine. As India’s renewable energy ambitions accelerate, Adani Green is positioned at the forefront – and both the company and market watchers expect that momentum to carry forward into the coming quarters ^[52].

Sources: Adani Green exchange filing and press statement; Hindustan Times ^[53]; Business Today ^[54] ^[55]; Moneycontrol ^[56]; Goodreturns ^[57]; Reuters ^[58]; Business Standard ^[59] ^[60]; ts2.tech ^[61].

Adani Stocks Undergo Bull Rally Post SEBI's Clean Chit; Here's What To Expect Next

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