TS2 TECH • DAILY MODEL PORTFOLIO
Stocks to Buy Today
Here are five U.S.-listed stocks ranked for Friday, July 31, based on the opening session. The model highlights companies with recent earnings reports, increasing forecasts, and prices that remain within an attractive buy range. Stocks with large price gaps are penalized.
Selective • buy evidence, not excitement
+0.49%
+0.67%
+0.47%
4.74%
$271.34 • +15.2%
$84.78 • +1.4%
The index’s advance masks a divided market. Amazon is rallying after its results, while Apple is down roughly 10%, and long-term Treasury yields hover near multi-year highs. In this environment, investors are favoring strong cash flow, positive earnings revisions, and careful entry points.
24% weight
Xylem
NYSE: XYL
94 / 100
Xylem now shows the greatest analyst upside in its sector following a 4.4% decline on Thursday. Orders jumped 42%, adjusted margins widened, and management raised its profit outlook. Although revenue guidance was tightened, the drop in share price is significant. This appears to be a reset rather than a momentum play.
Shares are trading at $117.36, up 0.5%. Analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average price target of $153.41 and a range between $129 and $183, suggesting an implied upside of 30.7%.
Orders rose 42% to $3.1 billion, while revenue edged up 2% to $2.3 billion. Adjusted earnings per share climbed 16% to $1.46, and the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 150 basis points to 23.3%.
The company projects adjusted EPS of $5.55 to $5.70 for 2026, compared to the consensus estimate of $5.66. This implies a 20.9× multiple at the midpoint of guidance. The full-year EBITDA margin outlook is between 23.1% and 23.5%.
Initiate the first tranche between $115 and $119. Add shares at $109 to $112. Avoid buying above $122.
Order conversions, the timing of major industrial projects, and execution within the updated margin and EPS ranges.
semiconductor and power projects can move between quarters.
22% weight
AerCap
NYSE: AER
92 / 100
AerCap trades at a single-digit earnings multiple, with estimates on the rise and ongoing share buybacks. Management’s $16.80 guidance does not include potential additional gains from asset sales in the second half. Despite the improved earnings outlook, the stock remains within the initial entry range.
Shares currently trade at $152.32, down 0.4%. The consensus rating is Strong Buy, with an average price target of $178.90. Analyst targets range from $165 to $190, suggesting a potential upside of 17.5%.
Revenue and other income rose 15% to $2.17 billion. Adjusted net income came in at $811 million, with adjusted earnings per share at $5.14. Operating cash flow totaled $1.5 billion.
The company forecasts 2026 adjusted EPS at approximately $16.80, compared to consensus estimates of $18.55. Shares are trading at 9.1 times guided earnings, with book value per share at $119.21.
Initial buy at $150-$153; consider adding at $144-$147; avoid purchases above $157
Lease yields, aircraft sale margins, airline credit quality, and share buybacks remain below estimated intrinsic value.
returns. Gains on asset sales are material and vary by quarter.
20% weight
Visa
NYSE: V
90 / 100
Visa delivered a strong quarter, with revenue, payment volume, cross-border activity, and processed transactions all posting double-digit growth. While the valuation remains the main concern, the current share price presents an opportunity to buy below this week’s high.
Latest quote: $365.41, down 0.2%. The consensus rating is Strong Buy, with an average price target of $412.53, spanning a range of $330 to $450. This suggests an implied upside of 12.9%.
Revenue rose 14% to $11.63 billion. Adjusted EPS increased 11% to $3.32. Payments volume climbed 10%, while total cross-border volume was up 13%.
Adjusted EPS for FY2026 is expected to grow at the lower end of the mid-teens range, with consensus EPS at $13.21. Shares are trading at 27.7 times forecast FY2026 earnings and 24.3 times FY2027 consensus EPS.
Initial range: $360-$367. Consider adding at $350-$355, but avoid buying above $374.
Focus is on fourth-quarter volume, the impact of client incentives, and whether cost-cutting measures can preserve margins without hindering product development.
regulation and workforce reductions add cost and execution risk.
18% weight
Chevron
NYSE: CVX
86 / 100
Chevron surpassed quarterly profit expectations by 9%, reduced net debt, and maintained its share buyback program. Despite reporting its highest quarterly profit in at least six years, the stock is up just 2% today. Oil exposure brings diversification but also caps the portfolio’s weighting.
Shares last traded at $195.16, up 1.5%. The stock holds a consensus Buy rating, with an average price target of $215.00 and estimates ranging from $170 to $243, implying a potential upside of 10.2%.
Adjusted earnings reached $12.0 billion, with adjusted EPS at $6.06, outperforming the $5.56 estimate. Upstream earnings totaled $8.2 billion, and production averaged 4.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day.
Consensus EPS for 2026 stands at $14.74 ahead of results, valuing the stock at 13.2 times earnings. The annualized dividend is $7.12, offering a yield of roughly 3.6%.
Initial tranche: $191–$196; consider adding at $184–$188; avoid buying above $200
Key factors include oil and refining margins, progress on debt reduction, a buyback program in the $10–$20 billion range, and integration of Hess synergies.
A fast de-escalation could cut estimates and reverse the sector’s July gain.
16% weight
UPS
NYSE: UPS
84 / 100
UPS has shifted from cost-cutting to a clear earnings rebound. Revenue and adjusted profit increased, guidance was raised, and shares now trade at 14.5 times projected EPS. The dividend offers income for investors, though delivering in the second half will be a challenge.
Shares last traded at $104.42, down 0.8%. Analysts rate the stock a Buy on average, with a target price of $115.85. Price targets range from $76 to $135, implying a potential upside of 10.9%.
Revenue reached $22.8 billion, with an adjusted operating margin of 9.2% and adjusted earnings per share of $1.76. U.S. revenue rose 6.0%, while international revenue climbed 12.5%.
The 2026 adjusted EPS guidance stands at approximately $7.22, with shares trading at 14.5 times projected earnings. The annualized dividend is $6.56, resulting in a yield of roughly 6.3%.
Initial tranche at $102-$106; add between $97-$100; avoid buying above $109.
Domestic package volumes, revenue per piece, delivery costs, and performance following the Amazon network scale-back.
volume and margin must improve further to support the full-year target.
| Ticker | Price | Forecast | Valuation | Avg target | Upside | Entry |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XYL | $117.36 | 2026 guide midpoint $5.63 | 20.9× guide | $153.41 | +30.7% | $115-$119 |
| AER | $152.32 | 2026 guide $16.80 | 9.1× guide | $178.90 | +17.5% | $150-$153 |
| V | $365.41 | FY2026 consensus $13.21 | 27.7× FY2026 | $412.53 | +12.9% | $360-$367 |
| CVX | $195.16 | 2026 consensus $14.74* | 13.2× pre-refresh | $215.00 | +10.2% | $191-$196 |
| UPS | $104.42 | 2026 guide $7.22 | 14.5× guide | $115.85 | +10.9% | $102-$106 |
Chevron’s consensus estimate and price target were set before Friday’s earnings and could be updated soon. Prices are quoted intraday at about 1:00 p.m. ET. Price targets represent projections, not guaranteed returns.
24%
22%
20%
18%
16%
Earnings and forecast updates
Cash flow and balance sheet update
Valuation compared to projections
Quality of entry following the move
Short-term event risk
Use limit orders and build each position in three tranches.
Buy within the specified range only. Avoid market orders if there’s a gap of more than 5%. Review prices near the session’s close, as month-end flows may affect closing levels. Chevron remains under its listed weight if oil prices see a sharp reversal.
NASDAQ: AMZN
DO NOT CHASE
AWS revenue climbed 37%, but shares have gained only 15.2% to about $271. Trailing free cash flow stands at negative $7.6 billion. Consider waiting for a pullback.
NYSE: ETN
WAIT BELOW $400
Sales climbed 21%, and the company raised its 2026 adjusted EPS forecast to $13.40–$13.60. Shares, at $414.52, are trading at about 30.7 times the midpoint of that guidance.
NASDAQ: AAPL
WAIT FOR PRICE DISCOVERY
Shares slipped 9.5% to around $302 after supply constraints weighed on growth prospects. With a trailing P/E of about 36.5×, the stock offers little margin for another guidance miss.
6.4 / 10
Moderately elevated: All five picks sit at or near their lower valuation bands. However, a 4.74% 10-year Treasury yield and Chevron’s oil sensitivity increase the risk of market-moving events.
Friday’s rally is being driven by a handful of major stocks. Amazon has surged 15.2%, while Apple has dropped 9.5%. Long-term yields are holding near multi-year highs. Month-end flows could intensify trading in the final hour. Even a strong company may not make for a good opening trade.