AI Stocks Frenzy! Nvidia, Microsoft Soar on OpenAI Drive

Tech giants rally: Nvidia surged after unveiling a $100 billion OpenAI investment, and Microsoft topped Q2 forecasts while pledging a $30 billion AI buildout in the UK ^[1] ^[2]. Oracle, Broadcom, AMD and other chip/cloud leaders also climbed on booming AI demand ^[3].
Big partnerships: Alibaba jumped ~10% after announcing a new trillion-parameter AI model “Qwen3-Max” and a partnership with Nvidia to expand global AI data centers ^[4]. Boeing’s defense unit agreed to use Palantir’s AI platform in production lines, lifting PLTR shares about 2% on the news ^[5] ^[6].
Market flows & ETFs: U.S. equity funds saw roughly $12 billion of inflows (week to Sept 24) after the Nvidia/OpenAI announcement ^[7]. AI-focused funds and tech ETFs led gains. For example, KraneShares’ AGIX ETF (AI & Technology) was added to LPL Financial’s no-fee platform, broadening access ^[8]. Retail investing is also shifting: about half of surveyed investors say they would use AI tools like ChatGPT to pick stocks, and 13% already do ^[9].
Expert caution and forecasts: Analysts warn of sky-high spending with uncertain payoffs. Bain & Co. estimates roughly $500 billion/year must be invested in data centers (needing ~$2 trillion annual AI revenue by 2030), far above current returns ^[10]. A recent MIT study found 95% of firms have seen no ROI from AI so far ^[11]. Rising Treasury yields also threaten to slow the AI investment binge by making massive capex projects more expensive ^[12] ^[13].
Global AI race & regulation: Geopolitics loom large. The UAE is rapidly building AI infrastructure – its president met OpenAI’s Sam Altman on Sept 27 to deepen cooperation, even as the UAE plans one of the world’s largest AI data centers and an Arabic AI model ^[14] ^[15]. Meanwhile, the US-China tech tug-of-war continues (US export curbs on AI chips, China pushing a global AI governance framework) ^[16] ^[17].

The late-September surge left US indexes near record highs on renewed AI optimism. “There needs to be a catalyst for stocks to move materially higher,” notes Oliver Pursche of Wealthspire Advisors, warning that stretched valuations mean markets may be ignoring potential headwinds ^[18]. Dan Moczulski of eToro cautions retail investors: “The risk comes when people treat generic models like ChatGPT or Gemini as crystal balls” ^[19]. Even OpenAI’s CEO Sam Altman has admitted the AI industry faces “bubble fear” despite explosive revenue growth ^[20].

In short, AI-focused stocks and funds have drawn massive investor attention and flows, driven by big announcements and aggressive capex plans. But many experts point out that the outsized spending plans (trillions over the decade) may take years to pay off ^[21] ^[22]. For now, the market ride goes on – but analysts warn it could be volatile. Investors would do well to heed both the bullish momentum and the skeptics asking tough questions about future returns.

Sources: Latest news from Reuters, company releases and financial commentary on Sept 27–28, 2025 ^[23] ^[24] ^[25] ^[26] ^[27] ^[28] ^[29] ^[30] ^[31], etc.