Amentum Holdings (AMTM) Rockets on Nuclear ‘Monopoly’ Hype and $995M Air Force Deal

Amentum stock after the spike: where AMTM trades today

Amentum Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: AMTM) is still digesting a huge two‑day rally that has suddenly put this once‑quiet government contractor at the center of Wall Street’s attention.

As of today, Amentum shares are trading around $25.18, down about 1.3% on the day but still up roughly 15% over the past week, according to eToro’s live quote data. ^[1]
Yesterday (Wednesday, November 19), the stock soared 17.12% to close at $25.52, its second straight day of gains, on extraordinary volume of 10.2 million shares versus a 50‑day average of 1.6 million. It’s now only about 4.15% below its 52‑week high of $26.63. ^[2]
Simply Wall St notes that the move brought Amentum’s year‑to‑date gain to 17.82% and its 1‑year total shareholder return to 13.88%. ^[3]

In other words: AMTM isn’t just drifting higher – it just experienced a full‑on re‑rating in a matter of days.

What’s new on Amentum (AMTM) today – November 20, 2025

Several fresh pieces of coverage hit the wires today, all circling around the same core narrative: Amentum as a critical, under‑the‑radar player in U.S. nuclear and defense infrastructure.

Here are the key news items dated or updated November 20, 2025:

Citron / Trump / “Most important company in America” story
A widely shared piece based on Benzinga reporting highlights a post from Andrew Left’s Citron Research, which calls Amentum “the most important company in America that nobody’s heard of.” Citron argues the company manages roughly 90% of America’s nuclear infrastructure for the Department of Energy (DOE) and sits at the center of President Trump’s aggressive nuclear‑expansion agenda, including:
- A DOE $1 billion loan tied to restarting Three Mile Island.
- A May 2025 executive order targeting 400 gigawatts of nuclear capacity by 2050, about four times today’s levels.
- A DOE $250 billion loan program aimed heavily at nuclear projects. ^[4]
  Citron ties this directly to AI, arguing nuclear power will be crucial to powering energy‑hungry data centers and labeling Amentum the “keystone” of U.S. nuclear capability. ^[5]
Valuation deep‑dive after the Air Force win (Simply Wall St)
A new analysis from Simply Wall St, “Assessing Amentum Holdings’s (AMTM) Valuation After Securing Major Air Force MQ‑9 Reaper Support Contract,” examines how the big move and recent contract affect fair value.
- At yesterday’s close of $25.52, they estimate Amentum trades at a price‑to‑earnings ratio of 119.4×, versus about 23× for the U.S. professional services industry.
- However, their discounted‑cash‑flow (DCF) work suggests AMTM is trading at about a 50% discount to estimated fair value, highlighting a sharp disconnect between earnings‑based multiples and cash‑flow‑based valuation. ^[6]
Primecap boosts stake to nearly 5% (MarketBeat)
MarketBeat reports that Primecap Management Co. CA increased its Amentum holdings by 19.6% in Q2, to 12,030,656 shares, representing 4.94% of the company and a position worth about $284 million at the time of the filing. ^[7]
The same piece notes:
- Roughly 39.9% of Amentum stock is held by institutional investors.
- Street consensus currently stands at “Hold” with an average price target of $28.55, based on six Buy, four Hold and two Sell ratings. ^[8]
UBS coverage and the ‘nuclear monopoly’ hype
UBS has initiated coverage of Amentum with a Neutral rating and a $25 price target, according to Fintel and Benzinga. ^[9]
A separate piece on TS2/Tech describes AMTM’s rally as being driven by “nuclear monopoly” enthusiasm and the UBS initiation, with the stock jumping into the mid‑$20s in Wednesday’s session. TechStock²
“Soars 17% on higher PT” and explainer pieces
Insider Monkey and Yahoo Finance wrap the price action under headlines like “Amentum (AMTM) Soars 17% on Higher PT,” tying the surge to increased analyst attention and higher targets. ^[10]
RollingOut runs a more retail‑oriented explainer, “Why Amentum stock just soared 17% in one day,” pointing to:
- The viral Citron note.
- Amentum’s nuclear and defense exposure.
- Recent analyst upgrades and contract wins. ^[11]
Fresh snapshot from Zacks
Zacks’ research snapshot dated November 20, 2025 lists Amentum at $25.52 (prior close) with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), reinforcing the consensus of cautious optimism rather than outright euphoria. ^[12]

All of this coverage lands on the back of a major Air Force contract announcement from last week – and that’s a big part of the story.

The $995 million MQ‑9 Reaper contract: defense upside for AMTM

On November 12, 2025, Amentum announced it had won the Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) Maintenance Support IDIQ contract from the U.S. Air Force Air Combat Command to modernize and support the MQ‑9 Reaper unmanned aerial system. ^[13]

Key details:

Contract ceiling: up to $995 million over a five‑year ordering period. ^[14]
Scope: specialized maintenance, weapons loading strategies, aerospace ground equipment, and other support at U.S. and overseas sites to enhance MQ‑9 readiness and training. ^[15]
Amentum emphasizes its long history in unmanned systems, including earlier work on the MQ‑1 Predator and RQ‑4 Global Hawk, positioning this as a natural extension of its expertise. ^[16]

Simply Wall St explicitly links this contract to the latest price surge, arguing that it strengthens Amentum’s position in high‑end defense technology and adds visibility to future cash flows, even as the stock’s valuation looks stretched on a simple P/E basis. ^[17]

Why Amentum is suddenly a nuclear‑energy and AI story

Citron’s thesis – amplified across multiple outlets – is that Amentum is not just another defense contractor but a quasi‑monopoly in U.S. nuclear infrastructure:

GuruFocus and Benzinga both summarize Citron’s claim that Amentum “controls over 90% of the U.S. nuclear infrastructure” for the DOE, including nuclear weapons complex operations, radioactive waste cleanup, new reactor engineering and management of defense nuclear facilities. ^[18]
Under Trump’s nuclear‑expansion policy, Citron points to:
- The DOE’s $250 billion loan program earmarked for nuclear and energy projects.
- The Three Mile Island restart backed by a $1 billion DOE loan.
- A push to quadruple U.S. nuclear capacity to 400 GW by 2050 through executive orders and loan guarantees. ^[19]

A big part of the narrative is AI and data‑center power demand:

Benzinga notes that tech giants like Alphabet (Google) and Microsoft are already involved in nuclear‑powered solutions (e.g., reactor projects in Iowa and at Three Mile Island) to meet AI‑driven electricity demand. ^[20]
Citron and GuruFocus frame Amentum as an “infrastructure toll booth” for this nuclear‑powered AI boom: a contractor with the expertise, security clearances and long‑term government ties to implement and manage much of the DOE’s expanded nuclear portfolio. ^[21]

Those are bullish opinions, not established fact – but they’re clearly resonating with traders and helping to fuel the recent spike.

Big money moves: Primecap and other institutions

The MarketBeat piece on today’s tape highlights that Primecap Management Co. CA has significantly increased its Amentum exposure: ^[22]

Primecap’s Q2 filing shows a 19.6% increase in its position, to 12,030,656 shares, worth about $284 million and representing 4.94% of the company.
Several smaller investors also initiated or increased positions, and overall institutional ownership stands near 40%. ^[23]

GuruFocus separately notes institutional ownership above 80% in some of its data sets, underscoring that there is already substantial “smart money” in the name – though the exact percentage varies by data provider and methodology. ^[24]

Higher institutional ownership can mean more stability and better access to capital, but it can also make a stock more sensitive to fund‑level flows or shifts in institutional sentiment.

Insiders: CFO’s new RSU award

On November 19, a Form 4 hit the SEC disclosing that Amentum’s Chief Financial Officer, Travis Barton Johnson, received a sizeable equity award: ^[25]

The CFO was granted 100,220 restricted stock units (RSUs) on November 17, 2025, at a price of $0 per share as part of equity compensation.
The RSUs vest in three equal tranches on each of the first, second and third anniversaries of November 17, 2025.
After the grant, the CFO beneficially owns 108,675 shares of Amentum common stock. ^[26]

This is not an open‑market purchase, but it does tie a meaningful portion of senior management’s compensation to the company’s long‑term share performance.

How Wall Street is valuing Amentum now

The sudden move in AMTM has triggered a wave of valuation takes – and they don’t all agree.

Street ratings and price targets

Analyst mix (MarketBeat):
- 6 Buys, 4 Holds, 2 Sells → consensus rating: “Hold”.
- Average price target:$28.55. ^[27]
UBS: Neutral, $25 price target, with coverage initiated on November 19. ^[28]
Recent actions highlighted by Benzinga and MarketBeat include: ^[29]
- BTIG Research: reiterated Buy, $30 target.
- Cantor Fitzgerald: upgraded from Neutral to Overweight, raising target from $25 to $35.
- JMP Securities: “Market Outperform” with a $30 target.
- Morgan Stanley:Underweight, nudging target from $19 to $20.
Zacks: ranks Amentum at #3 (Hold) as of today’s report, with the stock at $25.52 as of yesterday’s close. ^[30]
eToro’s analyst consensus:Hold, with a 12‑month price target of about $27.75. ^[31]

Multiples and fair‑value debate

There’s also a tug‑of‑war over whether Amentum is overvalued or undervalued:

MarketBeat snapshot:
- Recent price around $21.84 at the time of that report (before the latest spike).
- P/E ratio:56.01.
- PEG ratio:0.71.
- Debt‑to‑equity:0.97.
- 52‑week range:$16.01–$26.63. ^[32]
Simply Wall St view:
- P/E at 119.4× based on the latest close of $25.52, versus an industry average around 23×.
- Their model implies fair value at a much lower P/E (~41×), labeling the current multiple overvalued on earnings…
- …yet their DCF analysis suggests AMTM trades at about a 50% discount to intrinsic value, implying upside if cash‑flow projections are met. ^[33]
GuruFocus snapshot:
- P/E around 60×, P/S ~0.44, P/B ~1.28.
- Altman Z‑Score of 1.69, which falls into the “distress zone.”
- ROIC below WACC, implying less‑than‑ideal capital efficiency. ^[34]

In short, Amentum looks expensive on simple earnings multiples, but some models that lean heavily on long‑term cash flows and contract visibility argue the stock could still be undervalued relative to its “nuclear + defense + AI infrastructure” narrative.

Fundamentals: growth, margins and leverage

Behind the hype, Amentum is a very large, very real business:

The company generated roughly $12.7 billion of revenue with about 17.7% three‑year revenue growth, according to GuruFocus. ^[35]
Margins are thin for now:
- Operating margin: about 2.4%.
- Net margin: around 0.4%. ^[36]
Balance‑sheet metrics:
- Current ratio / quick ratio: ~1.58, suggesting adequate liquidity. ^[37]
- Debt‑to‑equity: ~1.0, indicating meaningful leverage. ^[38]
- Altman Z‑Score of 1.69 reflects elevated financial risk compared with more conservatively capitalized peers. ^[39]

From a business‑model standpoint, Amentum describes itself as a global leader in advanced engineering and technology solutions with about 53,000 employees in ~80 countries, focused on science, security and sustainability for the U.S. and its allies. ^[40]

Its portfolio spans:

Nuclear security and deterrence. ^[41]
DOE environmental cleanup and radioactive waste management. ^[42]
Space systems and NASA support, including Exploration Ground Systems and Artemis. ^[43]
Advanced defense training, intelligence, cyber and digital engineering. ^[44]

That breadth helps explain why commentators are comfortable calling Amentum a core infrastructure provider rather than just another contractor.

Key risks investors are talking about

Amid the euphoria, several risk flags show up repeatedly in today’s coverage and underlying data:

Leverage and financial health
- Debt levels are significant, and the Altman Z‑Score sits in the “distress” range, signaling that Amentum doesn’t have a bulletproof balance sheet. ^[45]
Thin margins
- Operating and net margins are very low relative to many high‑flying “AI infrastructure” or defense names. If costs rise or contracts are repriced, profitability could be pressured. ^[46]
Policy and concentration risk
- Amentum is highly exposed to U.S. government budgets and policy decisions, especially around nuclear power and defense. The current bullish thesis leans heavily on Trump‑era nuclear initiatives and DOE loan programs; any change in political priorities, funding or regulation could alter the outlook. ^[47]
Valuation and sentiment risk
- After a 17%+ one‑day jump and strong prior gains, a lot of good news may already be priced in. Simple P/E metrics above 50–100× leave little room for disappointment if contract wins or margins underperform expectations. ^[48]
Volatility
- GuruFocus points to high share‑price volatility (~37%+), and multiple days of double‑digit moves underline that AMTM can swing sharply on headlines and social‑media sentiment. ^[49]

What to watch next

Two near‑term catalysts stand out:

Q4 and full‑year FY2025 earnings call – November 25, 2025
Amentum will host its fourth‑quarter and full fiscal‑year 2025 earnings conference call on November 25, according to its investor relations site. ^[50]
Investors will be looking for:
- Detailed commentary on the MQ‑9 Reaper contract and broader defense pipeline. ^[51]
- Updates on nuclear and DOE projects tied to the emerging policy landscape. ^[52]
- Guidance on leverage, free cash flow and margin improvement.
Legacy parent Jacobs and the separation narrative
Jacobs’ own earnings release today references its separation of Amentum‑related businesses, and further commentary from Jacobs’ management could give additional color on how the former parent views Amentum’s prospects post‑spin. ^[53]

Bottom line: Amentum is now a front‑page story – but it’s not a simple one

On November 20, 2025, Amentum Holdings has clearly crossed over from “under‑followed contractor” to headline‑driven story stock:

A huge Air Force contract,
Viral “nuclear monopoly” commentary tied to Trump‑era nuclear policy and AI energy needs, and
Big institutional positioning and fresh analyst coverage

have combined to push AMTM into the spotlight.

At the same time, high leverage, thin margins, mixed valuation signals and policy risk mean this is not a low‑risk, set‑and‑forget story. The next few weeks – especially the November 25 earnings call – should go a long way toward showing whether Amentum can turn today’s narrative into durable earnings power.

Nothing here is investment advice; if you’re considering AMTM, it’s worth digging into the primary filings, listening to upcoming calls, and weighing the upside of its nuclear and defense franchises against the financial and policy risks that come with them.

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