Applied Digital (APLD) Stock on December 1, 2025: AI Campus Milestones, Short‑Interest Surge and 2026 Price Targets

Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) has become one of the most volatile and closely watched AI‑infrastructure plays on the market. As of mid‑session on December 1, 2025, the stock is trading around $28–29 per share, valuing the company at roughly $8 billion. That’s up about 180% over the last 12 months, and nearly fivefold year‑to‑date, while still sitting well below its 52‑week high near $40.20. ^[1]

Behind the jump is a powerful mix of AI data‑center contracts, aggressive financing, heavy short interest and sharply divergent analyst targets. Here’s what today’s news flow and the latest forecasts say about Applied Digital stock.

1. Where Applied Digital Stock Stands on December 1, 2025

Price & range: Real‑time data from StockAnalysis and other platforms shows APLD trading around the high‑$20s on December 1, with a 52‑week range of $3.31 to $40.20. ^[2]
Market cap & volatility: The company’s market cap is around $8.0–8.1 billion, with a beta above 7, marking it as an ultra‑high‑volatility name that routinely moves 5–10% in a single session. ^[3]
Financial profile: Over the last 12 months APLD generated about $173.6 million in revenue and a net loss of roughly $248 million (–$1.09 per share), highlighting that this is still a growth‑stage, loss‑making business. ^[4]

Put simply, Applied Digital is a high‑beta, high‑growth, high‑loss AI infrastructure stock whose share price reacts violently to both company‑specific news and macro headlines.

2. Today’s Headlines: Short Interest, Rally Recap and New Institutional Buying

2.1 Benzinga: Short interest climbs above 30%

A December 1 piece from Benzinga highlights that short interest in Applied Digital has risen 4.73% since the previous report, to about 79.17 million shares sold short. That equals 30.79% of the free float, with an estimated 2.63 days to cover based on recent trading volume. ^[5]

Benzinga notes that:

APLD’s short‑interest ratio is far above an estimated 6.4% peer‑group average,
Rising short interest signals growing bearish positioning,
But high short interest can also be a setup for a short squeeze if positive catalysts force short sellers to cover. ^[6]

2.2 Insider Monkey: 8.7% surge tied to macro optimism and AI campus progress

Insider Monkey’s December 1 article recaps that Applied Digital rallied 8.66% on Friday, November 28, closing at $27.10, extending a two‑day rebound driven by improving risk sentiment ahead of the Fed’s December 9–10 FOMC meeting and growing expectations for a 25‑basis‑point rate cut. ^[7]

The same article ties that rally to company‑specific good news:

Applied Digital completed Phase II at its Polaris Forge 1 AI Factory campus in Ellendale, North Dakota, bringing the first building to 100 MW of critical IT load and marking the first fully energized building under long‑term leases with CoreWeave. ^[8]
The full 400‑MW Polaris Forge 1 campus is covered by 15‑year leases expected to generate roughly $11 billion in revenue, according to company disclosures and recent coverage. ^[9]

Insider Monkey frames APLD as one of last week’s standout gainers but stresses that there may be other AI names with better risk‑reward, underscoring the market’s view of APLD as a high‑risk, high‑beta trade rather than a defensive AI holding. ^[10]

2.3 MarketBeat: New institutional buyer and mixed analyst picture

MarketBeat’s December 1 instant alert reports that Global Retirement Partners LLC opened a new position of 33,875 APLD shares, valued at about $341,000, in the second quarter. ^[11]

The same note highlights that:

Institutional investors own roughly 60–66% of the float, depending on the data source. ^[12]
Insiders have sold about 823,000 shares over the last 90 days, worth approximately $18.9 million, including notable sales by a director and the CFO at prices in the mid‑$30s. ^[13]
APLD’s earnings report for the quarter ended August 31, 2025 showed revenue of $64.22 million, up 84% year‑over‑year, and an EPS of –$0.03, beating consensus by $0.08, though the company remains unprofitable. ^[14]

MarketBeat lists a “Moderate Buy” rating based on its coverage universe, with 1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy and 1 Sell, and an average price target of $26.20—notably below today’s trading price. ^[15]

2.4 TS2: Pre‑market scenario map for December 1

Tech outlet TS2 published a weekend outlook specifically titled “Applied Digital (APLD) Stock Outlook Before the December 1, 2025 Open”, synthesizing late‑November news into three trading scenarios: bullish, consolidation and bearish. TS2 Tech

Key points in that analysis:

Bullish case: follow‑through buying on the Polaris Forge milestones, the ~$16 billion long‑term revenue pipeline across North Dakota campuses and the Macquarie funding, potentially pushing APLD back toward the high‑$20s or low‑$30s. TS2 Tech+2Applied Digital Corporation+2
Neutral case: digestion of recent gains, with the stock trading in the mid‑$20s to high‑$20s as traders balance profit‑taking with gradual accumulation. TS2 Tech
Bearish case: renewed focus on leverage, execution risk and a possible cooling of AI‑spending enthusiasm, which could drag the price back toward low‑$20s support. TS2 Tech+1

TS2 frames APLD as “squarely at the center of the race to build the physical infrastructure of the AI era,” but emphasizes that the stock remains extremely sensitive to changes in sentiment and macro conditions. TS2 Tech

3. The Fundamental Story: AI “Factory” Campuses, CoreWeave and a New Hyperscaler

At the core of the Applied Digital thesis is a specialized AI data‑center platform rather than a consumer AI product.

3.1 Business model in brief

According to company filings and independent profiles, Applied Digital:

Designs, builds and operates high‑performance computing (HPC) data centers for AI, cloud, networking and blockchain workloads in North America. ^[16]
Earns revenue primarily through long‑term infrastructure leases and hosting agreements, including AI GPU hosting and high‑density compute colocation. ^[17]

This “picks‑and‑shovels” approach treats data‑center capacity and power access as the scarce resource in the AI boom, rather than GPUs alone—a theme echoed repeatedly in recent analysis. ^[18]

3.2 Polaris Forge 1: 400 MW fully leased to CoreWeave

Polaris Forge 1, in Ellendale, North Dakota, is Applied Digital’s flagship campus:

The first 100‑MW building reached Ready‑for‑Service (RFS) status in November 2025, meaning it is fully energized and ready for tenant hardware. ^[19]
The campus is expected to reach 400 MW of critical IT load, all of which is fully leased to AI hyperscaler CoreWeave under long‑term agreements that are projected to generate around $11 billion of revenue over 15 years. ^[20]

RFS marked the first moment when the project shifted from capital drain to revenue‑generating asset, and it triggered a 12.8% share‑price spike on November 24 as investors rewarded successful execution. ^[21]

3.3 Polaris Forge 2: $5 billion lease and gigawatt‑scale ambitions

The next leg is Polaris Forge 2, near Harwood, North Dakota:

In October, Applied Digital announced a ~$5 billion lease with a U.S. investment‑grade hyperscaler to deliver 200 MW of AI‑optimized capacity at Polaris Forge 2 over roughly 15 years. ^[22]
The hyperscaler holds a right of first refusal on an additional 800 MW, implying potential 1‑GW expansion at the site. ^[23]
Combined with Polaris Forge 1, the company now counts about 600 MW of leased capacity in North Dakota and a long‑term contracted revenue pipeline near $16 billion across both campuses. ^[24]

To power this build‑out, Applied Digital has also struck an agreement with Babcock & Wilcox related to a 1‑GW‑class power solution for an AI campus—further underscoring the project’s scale and capex intensity. ^[25]

4. Funding the Build: Macquarie Facility and $2.35 Billion of 9.25% Notes

Building multi‑gigawatt AI campuses is capital‑hungry, and Applied Digital is leaning on a blend of debt and preferred equity rather than massive common‑stock issuance.

4.1 Macquarie’s up‑to‑$5 billion preferred equity facility

In early 2025, the company announced a deal with Macquarie Asset Management for up to $5.0 billion in perpetual preferred equity tied to its HPC data centers. An initial commitment of $900 million was followed in November by an expected additional draw of $787.5 million, subject to the closing of the notes offering and other conditions. ^[26]

According to company statements:

About $450 million of that second draw will finance Polaris Forge 2,
Roughly $337.5 million will support Polaris Forge 1 and other projects, providing what management calls “non‑dilutive capital” at the project level. ^[27]

4.2 $2.35 billion senior secured notes at 9.25%

On November 13, Applied Digital announced that subsidiary APLD ComputeCo had priced $2.35 billion of 9.25% senior secured notes due 2030, sold at 97% of face value in a Rule 144A private offering. ^[28]

Proceeds are earmarked to:

Fund a portion of the 100‑MW and 150‑MW data centers (ELN‑02 and ELN‑03) at Polaris Forge 1,
Repay an earlier Sumitomo Mitsui credit facility,
Establish reserves and pay transaction costs. ^[29]

This structure—high‑coupon debt plus preferred equity—is intended to limit dilution for common shareholders, but it also layers significant fixed obligations onto a still‑loss‑making company.

Analysts and commentators at Zacks, FXLeaders and other outlets consistently flag this funding mix as a core risk, warning that future cash flows will first have to service debt and preferred distributions before benefitting common equity. ^[30]

5. Earnings Momentum: Strong Top‑Line Growth, Deep Losses

Applied Digital’s fiscal 2026 Q1 report (quarter ended August 31, 2025) is a key anchor for the current valuation debate:

Revenue: About $64.2 million, up 84% year‑on‑year, and roughly $9–10 million above consensus. ^[31]
Earnings: GAAP EPS of about –$0.03, beating expectations of roughly –$0.11, but still meaningfully negative. ^[32]
TTM figures: Revenue over the last 12 months stands near $173.6 million, while net losses total around $247.9 million, underscoring the gap between growth and profitability. ^[33]

The next earnings release is currently estimated for January 13, 2026, and many analysts suggest that evidence of ramping lease revenue as more capacity goes live will be crucial for the next leg of the stock’s move. ^[34]

6. What Wall Street and Models Forecast for APLD

One of the most striking aspects of Applied Digital is how different data providers arrive at very different price‑target pictures.

6.1 StockAnalysis: Strong Buy, but modest upside

StockAnalysis, which aggregates 11 analyst views, shows: ^[35]

Consensus rating:“Strong Buy”
Average 12‑month price target:$29.36
Implied upside:~3–5% from current levels
Target range:$7 (low) to $43 (high), highlighting very wide dispersion

On this view, APLD already trades close to fair value after its recent rally.

6.2 MarketBeat: Moderate Buy, average target below today’s price

As noted earlier, MarketBeat’s coverage universe yields: ^[36]

1 Strong Buy, 11 Buy, 1 Sell
Consensus rating:“Moderate Buy”
Average price target:$26.20, actually below today’s trade

MarketBeat’s data also highlights the extreme beta (around 6.8) and negative earnings, reinforcing the idea that this is not a traditional “value” play. ^[37]

6.3 TipRanks: Strong Buy with ~70% upside

TipRanks, which focuses on ratings from the past three months, comes to a very different conclusion: ^[38]

Consensus rating:“Strong Buy” based on 10 Buy / 0 Hold / 0 Sell
Average 12‑month price target:$42.78
High / low:$56 high, $35 low
Implied upside:~71% from a reference price of $24.94 at the time of calculation

Recent analyst actions include:

B. Riley raising its target from $23 to $47,
Citizens JMP lifting its target from $18 to $35,
Needham (via MarketBeat/Barchart) reiterating a $41 target, and Craig‑Hallum pointing to $39. ^[39]

In short, some analysts see only single‑digit upside, while others expect 50–70%+ gains if the company executes. That spread itself is a signal of high underlying uncertainty.

6.4 Longer‑term revenue and margin forecasts

Forecast aggregates from StocksGuide suggest analysts expect: ^[40]

Revenue rising from about $144 million in FY 2025 to roughly $308 million in 2026, $528 million in 2027 and near $1 billion by 2028.
EBITDA improving from around $58 million in 2025 to $74 million in 2026, then surging above $280 million by 2027 and over $650 million by 2028, implying expanding margins.
Net income staying negative through at least 2027, with the average forecast turning positive only in 2028, when net margin might reach the mid‑20% range if everything goes right.

These are model‑driven estimates, not guarantees, but they highlight the steep growth curve analysts are baking into their valuations.

7. Short Interest and Volatility: The Short‑Squeeze Angle

Between Benzinga’s fresh figures and MarketBeat/Barchart commentary, Applied Digital now sits among the most heavily shorted U.S. stocks:

About 30–31% of the float is sold short,
Short interest equals roughly 79 million shares,
Days‑to‑cover is a relatively modest 2–3 days, but volumes are huge. ^[41]

The Barchart‑syndicated MarketBeat article on the Polaris Forge RFS milestone explicitly frames this backdrop as a potential short‑squeeze setup: bullish analyst upgrades, multi‑billion‑dollar contracts and successful execution collide with deep skepticism and heavy short positioning. ^[42]

However, high short interest is not automatically bullish. It can just as easily reflect:

Concerns about leverage and funding costs,
Worries that AI infrastructure spending may normalize or face pricing pressure,
Skepticism that the company can fully deliver on its multi‑year build‑out without cost overruns or delays. ^[43]

For traders, that means larger‑than‑normal move potential in both directions—and that risk cuts both ways.

8. Key Risks: Execution, Leverage and AI‑Cycle Uncertainty

Across company filings and third‑party research, several recurring risk themes emerge. ^[44]

Execution risk on mega‑projects
- Both Polaris Forge campuses require delivering hundreds of megawatts of high‑density, liquid‑cooled capacity on tight timelines. Delays, cost overruns or technical setbacks could materially impact returns.
Customer concentration
- A large portion of Applied Digital’s contracted pipeline is tied to CoreWeave and a single unnamed U.S. hyperscaler. Any change in these partners’ AI spending plans or financial health would directly affect APLD.
Leverage and funding costs
- The combination of 9.25% senior notes, multi‑billion preferred equity and other facilities means substantial fixed‑income obligations ahead of common shareholders. If AI spending slows or capital markets tighten, refinancing and servicing this structure could become painful.
Macro and AI‑cycle risk
- Analysts increasingly warn that AI infrastructure spending may flatten, rotate toward larger incumbents or face tighter capital discipline if rates stay higher for longer or if investors demand profitability over growth.
Regulatory and power‑market risk
- Gigawatt‑scale campuses hinge on power availability, environmental approvals and local politics. Any shift in energy regulation or community opposition could slow expansion.

These risks help explain why, despite bullish long‑term models, short sellers remain so active and why some valuation models (e.g., Zacks) still flag APLD as expensive on forward metrics. ^[45]

9. What to Watch Next

For investors and traders watching APLD after December 1, key catalysts include:

January 13, 2026 earnings (estimated): Confirmation that RFS capacity is ramping into actual revenue and improved margins will be essential. ^[46]
Additional RFS milestones: Progress on the remaining buildings at Polaris Forge 1 and the first phases of Polaris Forge 2. ^[47]
Funding developments: Final closing of the $2.35 billion notes, further Macquarie draws, and any new financing structures or power deals. ^[48]
Short‑interest trends: Whether the ~31% short‑interest ratio begins to decline (reflecting short‑covering) or rise further. ^[49]
Macro backdrop: The outcome of the December FOMC meeting and subsequent rate path, which will influence both the cost of capital and the appetite for high‑beta AI infrastructure plays. ^[50]

10. Bottom Line: A High‑Conviction, High‑Risk AI Infrastructure Bet

On December 1, 2025, the Applied Digital story looks like this:

The company has executed on its first 100‑MW AI factory building, secured about 600 MW of leased capacity and built a ~$16 billion long‑term revenue pipeline across North Dakota. ^[51]
It has lined up billions in preferred equity and high‑coupon debt to fund a gigawatt‑scale build‑out, trying to minimize common‑stock dilution at the price of higher leverage. ^[52]
Top‑line growth is explosive, but the business remains deeply unprofitable, with heavy capex and a long runway before forecasts show sustained positive net income. ^[53]
Wall Street’s view is overwhelmingly bullish, yet fragmented: some models see just a few percent upside from here, while others point to 50–70% potential gains if execution stays on track. ^[54]
Meanwhile, roughly a third of the float is sold short, setting the stage for outsized moves in either direction as each new headline lands. ^[55]

For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors, APLD represents a leveraged bet on AI infrastructure bottlenecks—land, power and specialized data centers—rather than on any single AI application. For conservative investors, the combination of high leverage, extreme volatility and uncertain AI‑cycle dynamics may make the stock unsuitable.

As always, this article is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Anyone considering Applied Digital stock should carefully review the company’s latest SEC filings, risk disclosures and their own financial situation before making any investment decision.