Applied Digital (APLD) Stock Today, November 23, 2025: AI Data Center High‑Flyer in a Risky Reset

Applied Digital Corporation (NASDAQ: APLD) — one of 2025’s most talked‑about AI data‑center stocks — heads into Sunday, November 23, 2025, after a bruising but still spectacular year. After soaring on multi‑billion‑dollar AI infrastructure deals, the stock has just endured a sharp pullback, and fresh research this weekend is sharply divided on whether APLD is now a bargain or still priced for perfection. ^[1]

This article rounds up the latest Applied Digital stock news and analysis as of November 23, 2025, and explains what investors will be watching in the shortened Thanksgiving trading week.

1. Applied Digital stock price snapshot as of November 23, 2025

Because U.S. markets are closed on Sundays, the most recent trading data for Applied Digital comes from Friday, November 21, 2025:

• Last close: $21.09 per share
• Day’s range (Friday): $19.01 – $21.49
• Change on the day: –1.3%
• After‑hours: roughly $21.28 ^[2]

Over the last month, the stock has dropped from the mid‑$30s to the low‑$20s:

• Late October intraday high: $37.17 (Oct 28)
• Close on Nov 21: $21.09
• Approximate drawdown from that peak: ~43%
• One‑month move: APLD is down about 30–37%, depending on the exact window. ^[3]

Despite the recent slide, the longer‑term picture remains extreme:

• 52‑week range: $3.31 – $40.20
• Last close is ~47% below the 52‑week high but still over 500% above the 52‑week low. ^[4]
• One‑year total price change: roughly +110–115%. ^[5]
• Estimated market capitalization: about $5.8–6.0 billion. ^[6]

In other words: Applied Digital is still a huge 2025 winner, but it’s now deep in correction” territory.

2. The week’s biggest headlines driving APLD into the weekend

Several major corporate and market developments over the last 10–12 days are shaping how investors see Applied Digital today.

2.1 $2.35 billion senior notes: massive firepower, big obligations

On November 13, 2025, Applied Digital’s subsidiary APLD ComputeCo priced $2.35 billion of 9.25% senior secured notes due 2030 at 97 cents on the dollar. The company plans to use the proceeds to: ^[7]

• Fund construction of its 100 MW and 150 MW ELN‑02 and ELN‑03 data centers at the 400 MW Polaris Forge 1 campus in Ellendale, North Dakota.
• Repay an earlier credit facility with Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corporation.
• Fund debt‑service reserves and transaction costs.

By November 20, the company had completed the offering, according to SEC‑filing summaries and newswire recaps. ^[8]

At a 9.25% coupon, the new notes imply over $200 million a year in interest expense on this debt alone — a key point in the emerging debate over how much leverage is too much” for an early‑stage AI infrastructure platform.

Credit markets are watching closely: S&P Global Ratings recently assigned a ‘B+’ rating with a positive outlook to Applied Digital, citing both strong long‑term contracts and elevated leverage and execution risk. ^[9]

2.2 Macquarie funding and AI Factory” build‑out

On November 12, 2025, Applied Digital announced a second $787.5 million funding draw from its up‑to‑$5 billion perpetual preferred equity facility with Macquarie Asset Management. ^[10]

Key details:

• $450 million is earmarked for completing Polaris Forge 2, the company’s AI Factory” campus in Harwood, North Dakota, where 200 MW of IT capacity is already leased to an investment‑grade hyperscaler. ^[11]
• $337.5 million will go to Polaris Forge 1 in Ellendale, helping fund the 400‑MW campus and general corporate needs, contingent on the senior notes offering closing. ^[12]

This Macquarie facility is structured as preferred equity, which the company characterizes as non‑dilutive” versus common stock, but it still adds a complex layer of capital structure above ordinary shareholders. ^[13]

2.3 AI factory leases: billions in long‑term contracted revenue

Applied Digital’s share‑price surge earlier in 2025 was driven largely by huge long‑term leases for AI compute capacity:

• CoreWeave (AI hyperscaler)
  • 250 MW, 15‑year leases at the Polaris Forge 1 campus (Ellendale, ND), expected to generate around $7 billion in revenue. ^[14]
  • Additional 150 MW finalized in August 2025, bringing CoreWeave’s total at Polaris Forge 1 to 400 MW and lifting the total long‑term revenue potential to roughly $11 billion, according to industry coverage. ^[15]
• New Hyperscaler at Polaris Forge 2
  • On October 22, 2025, Applied Digital signed a 15‑year, 200 MW lease with a U.S. investment‑grade hyperscaler at its in‑development Polaris Forge 2 campus near Harwood. ^[16]
  • The deal is expected to generate about $5 billion in total contracted revenue, and the customer holds a right of first refusal on another 800 MW, representing the campus’ full 1‑gigawatt expansion potential. ^[17]

Combined, these contracts take Applied Digital’s leased capacity across Polaris Forge 1 and 2 to around 600 MW and underpin tens of billions of dollars in potential future revenue if the facilities are built and fully ramped. ^[18]

Another important piece of the puzzle: Babcock & Wilcox recently disclosed a limited notice to proceed for a >$1.5 billion contract to deliver and install 1 gigawatt of efficient power infrastructure for an Applied Digital AI data center project, highlighting the scale and complexity of the build‑out. ^[19]

2.4 Earnings beat, but still deeply unprofitable

Applied Digital’s most recent earnings report came on October 9, 2025, for its Q1 FY 2026 period:

• Revenue: $64.2 million, beating Wall Street estimates (~$52.3m) and up 84% year‑on‑year. ^[20]
• EPS: –$0.03 vs. consensus –$0.14 (a substantial beat). ^[21]
• Net margin: roughly –111%, with a negative return on equity of ~–37%. ^[22]

The company is aggressively scaling revenue but remains far from profitability, even before layering on the new $2.35 billion high‑coupon debt.

The next earnings update is currently expected around January 13, 2026, according to earnings calendars. ^[23]

2.5 Violent price swings and options activity this week

The last three sessions before the weekend were extremely volatile:

• Thursday, Nov 20:
  • APLD fell 7.4% to about $21.37, on volume slightly above its already heavy average. ^[24]
• Friday, Nov 21 (intraday & closing recap):
  • MarketBeat highlights an intraday slide of about 10.6% to $19.10 before the stock recovered to close around $21.09, with ~9.5 million shares changing hands — well below recent average volume. ^[25]

Across its various alerts, MarketBeat and others emphasize:

• Beta: ~6.8 – extremely high volatility
• P/E: deeply negative
• Debt‑to‑equity: around 1.1
• Liquidity: current and quick ratios around 0.4, signaling a thin near‑term cushion. ^[26]

Options traders are active too. Data from Futu shows unusual call activity in a $24 strike call expiring December 19, 2025, with nearly 13,000 contracts traded in a single day and turnover near $2 million. ^[27]

2.6 Today’s (Sunday) macro preview: APLD on the week‑ahead radar

In a November 23, 2025 markets‑this‑week preview, Investopedia lists Applied Digital alongside names like Deere, Dell and Alibaba among the companies in focus for the holiday‑shortened week, underlining how closely watched APLD has become among macro and retail traders. ^[28]

Meanwhile, Indian brokerage INDmoney notes that search interest in APLD is up about 40% over the last 30 days, even as actual investment activity on its platform has dipped nearly 10%, a sign that curiosity is rising just as prices have become more volatile. ^[29]

3. Weekend research: Undervalued AI landlord” or expensive, leveraged story”?

Several fresh research pieces dated November 20–22 are shaping investor sentiment going into November 23.

3.1 Simply Wall St: Big upside if the growth story delivers

In a November 22 analysis, Simply Wall St notes that Applied Digital shares have fallen about 31% over the past month, yet are still up roughly 170% year‑to‑date. ^[30]

Key takeaways from their coverage and stock‑report pages: ^[31]

• Their most popular valuation narrative” pegs fair value around $43.70 per share, which would imply >100% upside from the ~$21 level.
• At the same time, they estimate APLD trades at roughly 34–35x sales, versus an industry average near 2.4x, suggesting a rich premium to peers.
• The stock scores highly on future growth expectations but poorly on valuation, past performance, volatility and insider selling, with noted shareholder dilution over the past year.

Another Simply Wall St piece from November 20 focuses on Applied Digital’s aggressive fundraising,” arguing that the $2.35 billion notes, ongoing shelf registrations and additional capital raises amplify both the upside of the Polaris Forge build‑out and the risk of over‑leverage if utilization ramps more slowly than expected. ^[32]

3.2 MarketBeat: Volatility, insider selling and a Moderate Buy”

MarketBeat’s trio of alerts from November 20–22 paints Applied Digital as extremely volatile but still favored by many analysts: ^[33]

• Consensus rating: Moderate Buy” to Strong Buy”, with an average target in the mid‑$20s from their dataset, though other platforms cite higher averages.
• Earnings beat is acknowledged, but net margins remain deeply negative, and analysts expect negative EPS for the full year.
• Insider selling has been heavy, with over 800,000 shares sold (≈$19 million) in the last three months across multiple directors and insiders.
• They highlight elevated leverage and thin liquidity, reinforcing the idea that execution missteps or a slowdown in AI demand could quickly stress the balance sheet.

3.3 TipRanks & others: Bullish analyst targets vs. cautious AI models

TipRanks’ coverage around the notes completion and recent volatility describes APLD trading around $23 with slight fluctuations” but significant underlying momentum driven by its big funding deals and AI data‑center partnerships. ^[34]

• TipRanks cites a YTD price performance near +190% and a market cap in the $6.4 billion range. ^[35]
• Their summary notes high call‑option volume and continued analyst optimism, but their AI Spark” model currently rates the stock Neutral, pointing to weak profitability, negative cash flow and valuation concerns.

Meanwhile, StockAnalysis aggregates 11 Wall Street analysts with an average 12‑month price target of $29.36 (about 39% upside from Friday’s close) and a consensus rating of Strong Buy.” ^[36]

Other platforms (including INDmoney and Simply Wall St’s community narratives) show fair value or target estimates around $43–44, underlining how widely opinions diverge on how to value Applied Digital’s long‑term AI infrastructure pipeline. ^[37]

4. Fundamentals in focus: huge AI runway, heavy losses and leverage

Beneath the daily noise, the core investment story in Applied Digital hasn’t changed much this month:

• The company designs, builds and operates high‑density, water‑efficient data centers aimed at AI, high‑performance computing and (to a lesser extent) blockchain workloads across North America. ^[38]
• It operates across blockchain hosting, AI cloud services (via its Sai Computing brand) and HPC data‑center hosting. ^[39]
• It has been recognized as Best Data Center in the Americas 2025” by Datacloud and ranked at the top of the Dallas Business Journal’s Fast 50” growth list. ^[40]

Financially, however:

• FY 2025 revenue was about $144 million, up modestly year‑on‑year, while net losses exceeded $230 million, according to StockAnalysis. ^[41]
• Quarterly revenue is now ramping quickly (from ~$38m to ~$64m over the last two quarters), but margins remain sharply negative and interest expense is rising. ^[42]
• Net leverage is set to increase markedly as the $2.35 billion 9.25% notes are layered on top of existing obligations and preferred capital. ^[43]

The bull case argues that long‑dated, hyperscaler‑backed contracts and Macquarie’s deep pockets give Applied Digital years of runway to grow into its capital structure and eventually flip from losses to strong cash flows. The bear case warns that:

• Execution risk on multiple large campuses
• Customer concentration with a handful of hyperscalers
• And a high‑rate debt stack

could all bite hard if AI infrastructure demand cools or project timelines slip. ^[44]

5. Key risks and open questions investors are asking this week

As of November 23, 2025, the conversation around Applied Digital is circling a few big questions:

1. Can revenue growth keep outpacing dilution and debt?
   Simply Wall St’s forward narrative assumes ~74% annual revenue growth to 2028, with earnings swinging from a large loss to over $100 million, which is an ambitious trajectory. ^[45]
2. Is the balance sheet becoming too stretched?
   The 9.25% notes imply substantial fixed interest obligations, while data‑center construction is capital‑intensive and subject to delays, permitting issues and power‑market risk. ^[46]
3. How much downside could there be if sentiment turns?
   Some technical research (such as the StockTradersDaily piece late Saturday) notes that, short‑term, APLD has more room to fall to lower technical support levels than to rise before hitting nearby resistance — essentially framing the current setup as skewed to downside risk in the very near term. ^[47]
4. Are investors being paid enough for the volatility?
   With a beta near 6.8 and monthly drawdowns of over 30%, Applied Digital behaves more like an option on the AI data‑center theme than a stable infrastructure REIT. ^[48]
5. Will further capital raises dilute existing shareholders?
   Recent shelf registrations and equity‑linked financings — alongside large preferred and debt raises — have already diluted shareholders, and more raises may be needed if build‑out costs or timelines shift. ^[49]

6. What to watch in the Thanksgiving week and beyond

As traders prepare for a shorter U.S. trading week, here are the main Applied Digital catalysts and checkpoints on the horizon:

• Trading behavior around $20: Friday’s intraday low near $19.01 is an immediate line in the sand. A decisive move below that level could encourage more technical selling; holding above it (or reclaiming the mid‑$20s) would suggest dip‑buyers are stepping in. ^[50]
• Any updates on Polaris Forge milestones:
  • Progress on ready‑for‑service” phases at Polaris Forge 1 and 2
  • Additional draws under the Macquarie preferred facility
  • Construction or power‑project milestones related to the Babcock & Wilcox contract. ^[51]
• AI‑infrastructure sentiment broadly:
  Benzinga and other outlets have already noted that APLD’s daily moves often track Nvidia and other AI leaders; any reversal in AI hype or GPU supply‑demand dynamics could ripple into Applied Digital’s multiple. ^[52]
• Credit‑market signals:
  With a new junk‑rated bond stack and a B+ rating, Applied Digital’s borrowing costs and spreads will feed into how equity investors perceive risk — especially if interest‑rate expectations shift. ^[53]
• Next earnings (January 2026):
  The market will want to see whether the Q1 revenue surge is sustainable, how much incremental interest expense hits the P&L, and whether management can offer clearer visibility on when these AI factories begin to generate meaningful free cash flow. ^[54]

7. Bottom line: Applied Digital on November 23, 2025

As of today, November 23, 2025, Applied Digital sits at a crossroads:

• It has locked in major AI infrastructure leases and financing that could support multi‑billion‑dollar revenue over the next decade and a half. ^[55]
• The stock has more than doubled over the past year, yet is now deep in a correction, with recent trading dominated by fast‑money flows, unusual options activity and high intraday volatility. ^[56]
• Fresh research this weekend ranges from deeply undervalued AI landlord” narratives with fair values in the $40s to warnings about rich multiples, heavy leverage and insider selling. ^[57]

For now, Applied Digital remains one of the purest public plays on hyperscale AI data‑center capacity — but also one of the most volatile, leveraged and sentiment‑driven names in the space.

As always, this overview is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Anyone considering APLD (or any other stock) should carefully assess their own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial situation, and consider consulting a qualified financial adviser.

References

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