Key Facts and Takeaways (Oct 2 2025)
- Volatile rally into the AI hype. Applied Digital Corp. (APLD) is a U.S. data‑center company pivoting from cryptocurrency hosting to high‑performance computing (HPC) and AI infrastructure. Its shares surged from about $22 on 30 Sept 2025 to $27.33 on 2 Oct 2025, a ~19% rally over two trading days, fuelled by news of additional capacity leases with CoreWeave and speculation about deals with a major hyperscale cloud provider. Despite the surge, the stock has traded in a wide 52‑week range of $2.55–$33.07 [1].
- Earnings catalyst ahead. Analysts expected APLD to report fiscal 1Q 2026 results on 9 Oct 2025. MarketBeat said consensus pointed to a quarterly loss of (~$0.11) per share on revenue of about $52.3 million, following a Q4 2025 loss per diluted share of $0.12 and revenue of $38 million [2] [3]. The company scheduled a conference call on 9 Oct 2025 to discuss results [4].
- Massive capacity expansion. On 29 Aug 2025 APLD announced it finalised a 150‑MW lease with GPU cloud provider CoreWeave, bringing total leased capacity at the Polaris Forge 1 campus to 400 MW and raising anticipated contracted revenue to ~$11 billion [5]. The campus uses a proprietary water‑free cooling system and can scale to 1 GW of critical IT load [6].
- Polaris Forge 2 investment. On 18 Aug 2025 APLD said it would break ground on Polaris Forge 2, a $3 billion data‑center campus in Harwood, North Dakota. The new campus will start with 280 MW of capacity and is expected to enter service in 2026 with full build‑out in early 2027 [7]. CEO Wes Cummins noted that the company was in advanced negotiations with a U.S. investment‑grade hyperscaler and highlighted the project’s potential to create value and employment [8].
- Financial snapshot (FY 2025). For fiscal year 2025 (ended May 31 2025) APLD reported revenue of $144.2 million (up 6%), a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $161.0 million, loss per share of $0.80, adjusted net loss of $12.5 million and adjusted EBITDA of $19.6 million [9]. The company raised $268.9 million after year‑end via at‑the‑market and preferred stock offerings [10].
- Analyst sentiment and insider activity. MarketBeat reported that twelve analysts rated the stock a “buy” with an average price target of $15.64 [11]—well below the October rally but above the year‑ago levels. The article noted insider sales by a director and the CEO earlier in 2025 [12]. StocksToTrade highlighted Roth Capital’s increase of its target price due to expected AI‑related demand [13].
Stock Performance and Trading Activity (late Sept – early Oct 2025)
The following table summarises key trading statistics from APLD’s investor‑relations historical data page for the week leading up to 2 Oct 2025 (prices in USD):
| Date | Open | High | Low | Close | Daily change & notes | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Oct 2025 (Thu) | 26.35 | 27.41 | 26.25 | 27.33 | Stock hit a new multi‑month high; closed up ~9% from previous day | (Volume not reported on IR page) |
| 1 Oct 2025 (Wed) | 22.83 | 25.05 | 22.30 | 25.00 | Share price surged 8.98%, reflecting optimism over an imminent hyperscaler agreement | 23.68 M shares |
| 30 Sep 2025 (Tue) | 22.50 | 23.55 | 22.07 | 22.94 | Price rose 3.57% | 27.74 M shares |
| 29 Sep 2025 (Mon) | 22.06 | 22.41 | 21.18 | 22.15 | Slight rebound after a 3.90% drop on 26 Sep; heavy volume indicates continued volatility | 19.27 M shares |
| 26 Sep 2025 (Fri) | 22.69 | 22.69 | 21.16 | 21.77 | Shares slid as investors digested the prior day’s call announcement | 22.77 M shares |
| 25 Sep 2025 (Thu) | 22.23 | 23.30 | 21.55 | 22.59 | Price fell 3.67% on profit‑taking and general market weakness | 25.58 M shares |
| 24 Sep 2025 (Wed) | 24.95 | 25.31 | 23.42 | 23.45 | Shares retreated 4.95% after the company announced the Oct 9 earnings call [15]. | 36.3 M shares |
The data show a clear upward trend through late September, culminating in a breakout on Oct 1–2 as speculation about a hyperscale contract intensified. Trading volumes were exceptionally high (19–36 million shares per day), reflecting heightened interest and volatility.
Recent News and Catalysts (Late Sept – Early Oct 2025)
MarketBeat (2 Oct 2025): Earnings Preview
MarketBeat’s article “Applied Digital (APLD) Projected to Post Earnings on Thursday” prepared investors for the 9 Oct 2025 earnings release. The report noted consensus expectations of a ($0.11) per‑share loss on $52.3 million revenue [16]. It highlighted Applied Digital’s high beta of 4.42, market capitalisation of $6.85 billion, debt‑to‑equity ratio of 1.36, and negative net margin of −107.22% [17]. Analysts credited the stock with an average “buy” rating and $15.64 price target, reflecting confidence that high‑performance computing demand would support revenue growth [18]. However, the article also pointed out insider selling by a director and CEO Wes Cummins earlier in the year [19].
StocksToTrade (1 Oct 2025): Hyperscaler Negotiations
StocksToTrade’s article asked whether APLD’s stock would reach new heights. It noted that the company was in advanced negotiations with a U.S. hyperscale cloud provider to lease AI‑optimised data centres, and that analysts at Roth Capital had recently increased their price target due to potential agreements worth billions [20]. The article stressed that APLD’s transformation from cryptocurrency hosting to AI infrastructure had raised its revenue to approximately $144.19 million (matching the FY 2025 figure) and improved its current ratio to 4.4, indicating strong liquidity [21]. The report also highlighted the rapid expansion of the global chatbot market—implying a large addressable market for compute providers—and suggested that a new 15‑year lease could bring $11 billion in revenue [22].
Applied Digital Press Releases
- 24 Sept 2025: The company announced that it would release fiscal 1Q 2026 results on 9 Oct 2025 and described itself as a designer and operator of “high‑performance, sustainably engineered data centres for artificial intelligence, cloud and blockchain” workloads [23]. The release noted that Applied Digital had been recognised as the “Best Data Center in the Americas 2025” and highlighted its proprietary waterless cooling solution [24].
- 29 Aug 2025: APLD finalised an additional 150‑MW lease with CoreWeave, adding to two earlier ~15‑year leases signed in May. This raised the Polaris Forge 1 campus’s total leased capacity to 400 MW and increased the anticipated contracted revenue to ~$11 billion [25]. CEO Wes Cummins said the agreement “underlines our commitment to building next‑generation AI infrastructure in America’s heartland” [26]. The release emphasised that the campus will use a water‑free cooling system capable of scaling to 1 gigawatt and could save $2.7 billion in cooling costs over 30 years [27].
- 18 Aug 2025: Applied Digital announced it would break ground on Polaris Forge 2, a $3 billion campus in Harwood, North Dakota. The campus will start with 280 MW of power and is expected to begin operations in 2026 with full build‑out by 2027 [28]. The company said it was in advanced negotiations with a U.S. investment‑grade hyperscaler and that there was strong interest from multiple parties [29]. The project will create about 200 jobs and will leverage partnerships with Cass County Electric Cooperative to deliver carbon‑free power [30]. State officials called North Dakota a national leader in AI infrastructure [31].
- 30 Jul 2025: In its fiscal Q4 2025 results, the company posted revenue of $38.0 million (up 41% year‑over‑year), a net loss per share of $0.12 and adjusted EBITDA of $1.0 million [32]. For FY 2025 revenue was $144.2 million, with a $0.80 loss per share and adjusted EBITDA of $19.6 million [33]. The release highlighted the transformative 250‑MW CoreWeave leases (valued at $7 billion) and the option for an additional 150 MW, which would bring total contract value to $11 billion [34].
Company Overview and Business Model
Applied Digital Corporation began as a high‑density hosting provider for cryptocurrency miners but has pivoted to the AI and HPC data‑centre market. The firm designs, builds and operates high‑performance computing campuses that offer colocation services for GPUs and other accelerators. Its proprietary waterless cooling allows for energy‑efficient, high‑density deployments [35] [36], making it attractive to AI workloads that generate significant heat.
The company has three major initiatives:
- Polaris Forge 1 Campus (Jamestown, ND). Initially built for cryptocurrency mining, the campus is being repurposed into AI‑optimised data halls. It currently houses leases with CoreWeave, a leading GPU cloud provider, which could yield up to $11 billion in revenue over ~15 years [37]. The facility is designed to scale to 1 GW and uses water‑free cooling technology [38].
- Polaris Forge 2 Campus (Harwood, ND). A new $3 billion greenfield project to be built in stages, starting with 280 MW in 2026, with full capacity expected by early 2027 [39]. The project underscores the firm’s commitment to making North Dakota a hub for AI infrastructure [40].
- Sale of Legacy Cloud Services Business. As part of its transformation, APLD is divesting its traditional cloud services unit, which is classified as “held for sale” and excluded from continuing operations [41]. This allows management to focus resources on high‑growth AI and HPC opportunities.
Competitive Landscape and Industry Context
The AI infrastructure market is surging as generative AI and large language models drive demand for GPU clusters and low‑latency data‑centre capacity. Hyperscale cloud providers (Amazon, Microsoft, Google) and specialised GPU clouds (CoreWeave, Lambda) are scrambling to secure power and real estate. Applied Digital competes with established colocation firms like Equinix, Digital Realty, Switch Inc. and with cloud‑native providers such as CoreWeave itself. The company’s advantages include:
- Strategic location in North Dakota. The state offers inexpensive, carbon‑free electricity and favourable regulation. State leaders actively support the Polaris Forge projects, calling the region a national hub for AI infrastructure [42].
- Waterless cooling and modular design. Traditional data centres use massive amounts of water for evaporative cooling. APLD’s proprietary technology eliminates water use and promises savings of $2.7 billion over 30 years [43] while enabling dense GPU deployments.
- Long‑term leases. The multi‑billion‑dollar, 15‑year leases with CoreWeave provide predictable revenue streams and validate the firm’s ability to build high‑density compute facilities [44].
However, the company faces significant challenges. It is a small player competing against giants with deeper capital reserves. Its financials show heavy losses and negative margins [45], and it is taking on substantial debt to fund expansion [46]. Execution risk remains high: delays in construction, cost overruns or failure to secure additional tenants could undermine the thesis.
Analyst Commentary and Technical Analysis
Analysts covering APLD are generally bullish but caution that the stock is highly speculative. MarketBeat reported that twelve analysts maintained a “buy” rating and an average $15.64 target price [47]. This target was below the Oct 2 closing price of $27.33, suggesting that the rally might have overshot short‑term fair value. Roth Capital, which had previously cut its target, raised it to $20–$22 in late September as the company moved closer to an AI hyperscaler deal [48]. Some commentators warn that APLD’s high beta (4.42) and low float make it vulnerable to large swings [49].
From a technical perspective, the breakout above $25 on 1 Oct 2025 signalled strong momentum. The 50‑day moving average around $8.52 and the 200‑day moving average around $6.89 [50] suggest that the stock had been in a long‑term uptrend before the late‑September surge. However, with little overhead resistance until the 52‑week high of $33.07 [51], traders anticipated significant volatility. The very high trading volumes (20–36 million shares per day) around Oct 2 indicate heavy participation and potential short covering.
Outlook (as of Oct 2 2025)
Applied Digital enters the October earnings season at a critical juncture. The upcoming 1Q 2026 results will reveal whether revenue from the CoreWeave leases has begun to materialise and whether the company’s pivot to AI infrastructure is starting to improve margins. Key catalysts to watch include:
- Execution of the 150‑MW option and signing of additional hyperscaler clients. Completion of these agreements could increase contracted revenue beyond $11 billion [52] and de‑risk the Polaris Forge campuses.
- Polaris Forge 2 financing and construction. Securing funding for the $3 billion project and delivering it on schedule will be crucial [53].
- Sale of the legacy cloud services business. Monetising this asset will improve cash balances and allow management to focus on high‑margin AI hosting [54].
Given the stock’s extreme volatility and the company’s nascent revenue base, investors should treat APLD as a speculative play on AI infrastructure. Its long‑term success hinges on delivering massive data‑centre projects on time, controlling costs and maintaining strong relationships with GPU‑hungry tenants.
References
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