Applied Materials Stock (AMAT) on November 29, 2025: Record Earnings, China Export Hit and an AI‑Fueled Rally

As of November 29, 2025, Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT) sits near record highs after delivering a record fiscal year, navigating aggressive U.S. export controls on China, trimming its workforce, and winning a fresh wave of Wall Street upgrades – all while riding the generative‑AI and high‑bandwidth memory boom.

The result: AMAT has turned into one of 2025’s standout semiconductor equipment names, even though headlines around export curbs and China exposure continue to inject volatility into the stock.

AMAT stock today: price, performance and valuation

Applied Materials shares last closed at about $252 per share on Friday, November 28, 2025, after trading between roughly $248 and $253 during the session. ^[1]

Over the past year, the stock has climbed from the low‑$120s to just above $250, giving it a 52‑week range of roughly $124 to $253. ^[2]

On a total‑return basis, the rally has been powerful:

According to PortfoliosLab, AMAT is up about 57% year‑to‑date and nearly 49% over the past 12 months, comfortably ahead of the S&P 500’s mid‑teens gain. ^[3]
MarketBeat data show a one‑year price performance of roughly 46%, consistent with other sources, and confirm that AMAT has outpaced the broader market over multiple time frames. ^[4]

Valuation has expanded with the stock price:

A recent MarketBeat snapshot puts AMAT’s market capitalization around $200 billion, a price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio near 30, and a P/E-to‑growth (PEG) ratio just under 3, indicating investors are paying a premium for its growth profile but not yet at the nosebleed multiples of some AI high‑flyers. ^[5]
A valuation review based on Simply Wall St data (via Sahm Capital) suggests AMAT’s P/E of about 25–26x trails the U.S. semiconductor industry average in the low‑30s, even as the absolute share price sits close to all‑time highs. ^[6]

In short, AMAT screens as a richly valued but not extreme growth stock, backed by strong profitability and an AI‑heavy backlog.

Fiscal 2025: record year, mixed quarter

Applied Materials reported record results for fiscal 2025, which ended October 26, 2025. ^[7]

Key headline numbers:

Full‑year net revenue: $28.37 billion, up about 4% year‑over‑year.
Full‑year GAAP EPS: $8.66, slightly higher than the prior year.
Full‑year non‑GAAP EPS: $9.42, up around 9% versus fiscal 2024.
Q4 FY25 revenue: $6.80 billion, down roughly 3% from the same quarter a year earlier.
Q4 GAAP EPS: $2.38, up about 14% year‑over‑year.
Q4 non‑GAAP EPS: $2.17, a mid‑single‑digit decline versus last year’s comparable quarter. ^[8]

Margins improved even as revenue dipped in the latest quarter. According to a recent analysis, gross margin reached about 48.8% in Q4 FY25, up roughly 1.2 percentage points from a year earlier, highlighting both pricing power and cost discipline. ^[9]

Management highlighted several growth drivers in its earnings materials and call:

Strong demand for AI‑enabling technologies and advanced logic nodes. ^[10]
Increasing investments in high‑bandwidth memory (HBM) and DRAM capacity that rely on Applied’s deposition, etch and inspection tools. ^[11]
An expanding network of co‑innovation programs with leading chipmakers, and progress toward opening its new EPIC Center R&D hub next year. ^[12]

The picture from fiscal 2025 is clear: top‑line growth was modest but profitable, and Applied wrung out higher margins even as it absorbed restructuring and regulatory costs.

Guidance and 2026 outlook: growth pushes against China drag

Alongside Q4 results, Applied Materials issued guidance that soothed near‑term concerns but sharpened focus on 2026.

For the current quarter (fiscal Q1 2026), the company:

Guided revenue to about $6.85 billion, plus or minus $500 million, above the roughly $6.76 billion Wall Street consensus at the time. ^[13]
Forecast non‑GAAP EPS of around $2.18 ± $0.20, again slightly ahead of expectations. ^[14]

However, management also delivered a more cautious view on China and overall wafer‑fab‑equipment (WFE) spending:

CFO Brice Hill reiterated that China’s equipment spending is expected to decline in 2026 as tighter U.S. export controls limit Applied’s ability to serve key customers. ^[15]
At the same time, Hill and CEO Gary Dickerson argued that WFE spending is likely to accelerate in the second half of calendar 2026, driven by surging AI‑related memory and advanced logic demand. ^[16]

The message: 2026 may be a “two‑halves” year – weaker in the front half as export rules bite and customers digest capacity, stronger in the back half as AI server and memory buildouts re‑accelerate.

U.S.–China export controls: a $710 million swing factor

The single biggest overhang on AMAT stock remains the evolving U.S. export regime targeting China’s semiconductor industry.

In early October, Applied Materials disclosed that the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of Industry and Security had tightened restrictions via an “affiliate rule” that expands the number of China‑based customers requiring export licenses. The company estimated that the new rules would:

Reduce Q4 FY25 net revenue by about $110 million, and
Cut fiscal 2026 revenue by roughly $600 million, for a total estimated hit of approximately $710 million. ^[17]

Reuters reporting around Q4 earnings added more detail:

Applied’s share of revenue from China has fallen from nearly 40% in recent years to the mid‑20% range, but the country remains its largest single market. ^[18]
Some previously blocked systems – around $110 million worth – are now expected to ship after U.S. officials suspended part of the affiliate rule, restoring up to $600 million in potential sales over the coming year. ^[19]
CEO Gary Dickerson noted that non‑U.S. equipment makers face fewer limits, allowing rivals from Europe and elsewhere to sell into Chinese fabs that Applied can no longer serve. ^[20]

The geopolitical backdrop is still shifting. A U.S. House Select Committee on China recently recommended further measures to curb Beijing’s access to advanced semiconductor manufacturing tools, spotlighting companies like Applied, Lam Research, KLA and ASML. ^[21]

For AMAT, export rules are no longer a hypothetical risk; they are a measurable revenue headwind that could worsen if Washington tightens controls again.

Restructuring and workforce reduction: cutting costs into the headwind

In late October, Applied Materials announced a 4% reduction in its global workforce, or roughly 1,400–1,500 employees, as part of a restructuring aimed at improving productivity and aligning with “automation, digitalization and geographic shifts” in its operations. ^[22]

Key points from that announcement and subsequent analysis:

The company expects $160–$180 million in restructuring charges, mainly severance and related costs. ^[23]
Management framed the move as positioning Applied “as a more competitive and productive organization” heading into fiscal 2026, not as a sign of crisis. ^[24]
Commentators noted that the layoffs arrive just after the export‑curb news and ahead of a potentially softer demand patch, suggesting management is “right‑sizing” the business before conditions worsen, rather than reacting after the fact. ^[25]

So far, the market has largely shrugged off the cuts, interpreting them as proactive cost management rather than a red flag about long‑term demand.

Wall Street reaction: UBS upgrade, price‑target hikes and a “Moderate Buy”

Despite the export‑control drama, sell‑side sentiment toward AMAT has actually improved over the past few weeks.

Recent developments include:

UBS upgraded AMAT to “Buy” from “Neutral” and raised its price target from $250 to $285, arguing that AI‑driven demand and the memory upcycle should more than offset China‑related headwinds over a multi‑year horizon. ^[26]
MarketBeat reports that after Q4 results and guidance, JPMorgan lifted its target to $260 and B. Riley to $270, while the consensus rating sits at “Moderate Buy” with an average target around $228. ^[27]

The average target now lags the share price – the kind of “good problem” analysts often face when a stock rerates faster than their spreadsheets.

On the fundamentals front, the same MarketBeat note highlights that Applied:

Delivered Q4 EPS above expectations (about $2.17 vs. $2.11) despite a mid‑single‑digit drop in revenue.
Generated a net margin near 24% and return on equity around 41%, underlining the company’s capital‑efficient model. ^[28]

Elsewhere, a valuation piece based on Simply Wall St data suggests AMAT’s intrinsic value sits just below the recent share price (~$223 vs. market levels north of $240 at the time), leaving the stock modestly overvalued by that framework, even though its P/E multiple is still below some peers. ^[29]

The big picture: analysts are broadly bullish but divided on how much of the AI upside is already priced in.

Credit facility and balance sheet strength

Applied Materials also moved to bolster liquidity and financial flexibility:

The company recently disclosed a new $2 billion credit facility, a move that gave the stock a modest pre‑market lift when announced. ^[30]

Combined with over $7 billion in cash and equivalents on the balance sheet and relatively modest net debt, the new facility gives management additional firepower for R&D, capacity expansion, and shareholder returns such as buybacks and dividends. ^[31]

What is driving the rally? AI, memory and capital‑spending cycles

Why has AMAT’s stock surged more than 50% this year despite China noise and cyclical worries?

Several overlapping forces are at work:

Explosive AI infrastructure buildout
Cloud and hyperscale data‑center operators are racing to deploy GPUs and accelerators, which in turn drives demand for advanced logic and high‑bandwidth memory chips. These devices require multiple new process steps – deposition, etch, inspection, metrology – where Applied dominates, boosting tool intensity per wafer. ^[32]
Memory recovery after a brutal downturn
After a severe downcycle in 2023–2024, DRAM and NAND producers are ramping capex to meet AI‑driven demand, especially for HBM. Applied’s exposure to the memory segment helps offset some of the softness in more mature Chinese markets. ^[33]
Geographic diversification of fabs
Governments in the U.S., Europe and Asia are pushing for more localized chip manufacturing. As dozens of new fabs or expansions are tracked globally, Applied’s broad portfolio and growing local manufacturing footprint (including new U.S. facilities and the forthcoming EPIC Center) position it to capture a larger share of this geographically diversified capex. ^[34]
Operational leverage and margin expansion
The combination of higher‑value tools, cost discipline and restructuring support expanding gross and operating margins, which magnifies EPS growth relative to revenue. ^[35]

This cocktail of secular AI tailwinds and cyclical recovery explains why AMAT is up roughly 57% year‑to‑date, even though it has actually underperformed some peers like Lam Research, which has more than doubled in 2025 according to Investing.com. ^[36]

Key risks for AMAT stock heading into 2026

For all the optimism, several risks could rattle Applied Materials’ rally:

Further tightening of U.S. export rules
Congressional scrutiny of semiconductor equipment exports to China is intensifying. Additional restrictions on mature‑node or memory tools could shrink AMAT’s addressable market further and divert share to non‑U.S. competitors. ^[37]
China share loss to foreign rivals
Management insists it is not ceding share, but the practical reality is that European and other non‑U.S. players face fewer export limits, allowing them to win business at Chinese fabs where Applied is locked out. Over time, that could erode AMAT’s relative position even if global demand grows. ^[38]
Semiconductor cycle volatility
AI demand looks “insatiable” in many forecasts, but capex cycles are still boom‑and‑bust. If hyperscale customers slow orders or memory pricing weakens, fabs can slam the brakes on new equipment spending, pressuring utilization and margins.
Valuation and expectations risk
With the stock near all‑time highs, a forward P/E around 30, and heavy AI optimism embedded in expectations, AMAT is vulnerable to “good but not great” quarters or any sign that China headwinds are intensifying. ^[39]
Execution on restructuring and new capacity
The 4% workforce reduction and expanded capex on new centers and factories must translate into sustained productivity gains. Otherwise, the company risks higher fixed costs without enough incremental growth to justify them. ^[40]

Bottom line on Applied Materials stock as of November 29, 2025

Putting it all together:

Financially, Applied Materials just wrapped up a record fiscal year with higher margins, robust EPS and guidance that – for now – points to continued growth. ^[41]
Strategically, it sits at the heart of the AI, HBM and advanced‑logic buildout, with a technology portfolio that is difficult to replicate and a growing footprint in key manufacturing regions. ^[42]
Politically, it is caught in a tug‑of‑war between Washington and Beijing, facing a quantified $710 million revenue headwind from export controls and the possibility of more to come. ^[43]
In the market, AMAT has rallied roughly 57% year‑to‑date, trades near its 52‑week high, and enjoys a broadly positive analyst backdrop anchored by recent upgrades and rising price targets. ^[44]

For investors and traders following Applied Materials stock on November 29, 2025, the story is a classic high‑quality semiconductor equipment name at a delicate intersection of AI euphoria and geopolitical risk. Any future move in the share price is likely to depend less on what the company has just achieved – and more on how the next chapters of export policy, AI server demand and global chip‑fab spending unfold.

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