- Major indices mostly up: MSCI Asia Pacific ex-Japan rose ~0.3%, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng +0.8% and Shanghai/SZ CSI 300 +0.2% reuters.com. Japan’s Nikkei inched up 0.1% reuters.com, while India’s Sensex/Nifty rebounded ~0.2% after a week-long slump 1 .
- Gold and oil moves: Gold surged to a new record (around $3,800/oz) on a weaker dollar and haven demand reuters.com. Oil prices eased on news of higher OPEC+ output, tempering energy sector upside 2 .
- U.S. policy uncertainty: Traders are bracing for a possible U.S. government shutdown at month-end, which could delay key data. Markets still price a ~90% chance of an October Fed rate cut reuters.com. HSBC strategists note the Fed might have to “fly blind” if data is halted by a shutdown 3 .
- China/Regional macro: China’s official PMI remained in contraction (49.8 in Sept) even as a private survey showed modest manufacturing pickup investing.com. Japan’s industrial output fell unexpectedly, and retail sales dipped for the first time in 3½ years reuters.com reuters.com. Thailand’s factory output plunged 4.2% YoY in August 4 .
- Policy and stimulus: Australia’s central bank held rates at 3.60%, lifting the A$/US$ 0.5% investing.com. India’s RBI eased bank lending norms, broadening gold loan usage, which analysts say should improve credit flow reuters.com. The BOJ remains cautious after Tokyo signed a tariff deal with the U.S., while awaiting more data 5 .
- Corporate and IPO news: Hong Kong saw two major listings: Zijin Gold’s $3.2B IPO rocketed on debut (shares +66%) reuters.com, and JD.com’s industrial unit (JingDong Industrials) filed for a ~$500M Hong Kong IPO reuters.com. In India, banking and metal stocks led a bounce, while one troubled firm (Man Industries) crashed 8% on a regulatory ban 6 .
- Analysts’ views: Experts note profit-taking and repositioning ahead of Asia’s autumn holidays reuters.com. Religare’s Ajit Mishra says oversold positions “may now lead to some consolidation” around key supports (e.g. Nifty ~24,400) reuters.com. In Vietnam, strategists warn foreigners are selling into rallies (concerned by FX swings) even as the VN-Index has surged ~29% YTD reuters.com 7 .
Photo: A bronze bull statue stands outside the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, symbolizing the local market. Asian stocks were broadly higher on Sept 30, led by Chinese and Hong Kong equities amid strong IPO activity reuters.com reuters.com.
Markets Overview: Modest Gains With Sector Rotation
Asian equities largely closed higher on Sept. 30, snapping small early losses. MSCI’s Asia ex-Japan index was up about +0.3% reuters.com. In Japan, the Nikkei 225 ticked up roughly +0.1% (ending near 44,960) after opening softer reuters.com. Shanghai and Shenzhen markets also edged higher (+0.3% and +0.4% respectively) as China returns to work after its Golden Week holidays. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index led gains in the region, jumping about +0.8% reuters.com. Even a surge in Chinese yields (which can damp equities) didn’t offset the positive tone from IPOs.
In India, benchmarks rebounded from a seven-session slide: the Sensex and Nifty were each up ~0.2–0.4% reuters.com. Banks and metals drove the advance after recent policy easing (see below). Singapore’s STI and Taiwan’s Taiex also saw modest upticks. By contrast, Korea’s Kospi was roughly flat; that market has already rallied ~40% YTD, reflecting heavy tech/semiconductor weightings (about which some analysts caution on valuation).
Sector moves were mixed. Financial stocks (banks, NBFCs) led in India reuters.com and elsewhere on central bank tailwinds. Asian tech also rose broadly after Monday’s tech selloff eased. By some accounts, hedge funds took profits in Chinese/Taiwanese tech stocks late last week ahead of holidays reuters.com. In commodity-related sectors, metals firms got a boost from a weaker dollar and supply concerns – India’s metal index jumped ~+1% reuters.com, and Chinese metal producers outperformed.
Conversely, interest-rate sensitive sectors lagged as bond yields ticked up on Fed-weighed optimism. Ray Attrill, head of FX strategy at National Australia Bank, noted markets are “bracing themselves” for a potential US shutdown and delayed data – but are still expecting Fed cuts reuters.com 3 .
Photo: Traders outside the Bombay Stock Exchange in Mumbai. Indian equities stabilized on Sept. 30 as lenders and metal stocks rallied after RBI eased norms reuters.com reuters.com.
China & Hong Kong – IPO Frenzy and Mixed Data
Hong Kong IPO boom: Hong Kong’s exchange was abuzz on Tuesday. Zijin Mining’s offshore gold unit (Zijin Gold Intl.) raised $3.2B via IPO and debuted on HKEX, with shares spiking up to +66% intraday reuters.com. That lifted the Hang Seng Index about +0.8% in early trade. The landmark IPO was >240× oversubscribed (retail) and is the largest Hong Kong deal since 2021 reuters.com. Another Chinese tech spin-off – JingDong Industrials (JD.com’s industrial supply arm) – cleared a regulatory hurdle and is targeting ~$500m in a HK listing as soon as October reuters.com. Overall, HK IPO/SGX activity is at multi-year highs (YTD deals ~$23B 8 ).
China macro data: On Sept. 30 official surveys showed China’s manufacturing PMI at 49.8 (fifth month <50, signaling mild contraction) and services PMI near 52, both softer than expected. Analysts note urban factory output is still under pressure. However, a private sector Caixin survey painted a slightly brighter picture (manufacturing PMI up modestly on export demand investing.com). Policy support is in play: Beijing officials have promised more infrastructure and credit easing to underpin growth. Gold prices, meanwhile, climbed to all-time highs – gold futures jumped over 11% in September – aided by global political uncertainties and expectations of lower rates 9 .
On currency, the Chinese yuan (onshore) has held steady around 7.15 per USD, with traders eyeing whether PBOC will intervene to slow its mid-year decline. Interestingly, Chinese retail investors recently began trimming leverage at the fastest pace since April reuters.com, reflecting risk-off ahead of Golden Week.
Commentary: Analysts caution that, despite the IPOs and recent market rally, risks remain. Goldman Sachs notes hedge funds took “largest weekly selloff in over 5 months” of Asian emerging equities last week, led by China/HK positions reuters.com. As Goldman’s Asia strategists explained, investors are locking in profits before the long holiday hiatus, especially in tech. Taiwan and South Korea enter holidays in early Oct., and Mainland trading is muted until Oct. 8. Long-term bulls point out that Emerging Asia stocks have jumped ~24% YTD (vs MSCI World +15%) reuters.com, suggesting some caution after big gains.
Japan – Soft Demand Keeps BOJ Cautious
Japan’s markets were choppy. Early on Sept. 30 Tokyo equities fell slightly, but later recovered to a flat close (Nikkei ~0.0% for the day) reuters.com. Local traders remain wary after data showed Japan’s factory output unexpectedly fell 1.2% in August (much worse than +0.8% forecast) reuters.com. Retail sales also contracted 1.1% YoY – the first drop in 3½ years – led by weaker auto purchases reuters.com. Export-intensive sectors are feeling U.S. tariff effects. Moody’s economist Stefan Angrick warns “Japanese manufacturers are feeling squeezed on all sides” (higher tariffs, slowing demand) 5 .
On policy, the Bank of Japan has kept its ultra-loose stance. BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated the central bank will raise rates “if the economy and prices move in line with its forecast” reuters.com, but weak output/sales data reinforce expectations that any tightening will be delayed. Analysts note the disappointing data “will keep the BOJ on hold for now” reuters.com. Indeed, Japan’s 10-year yields remain near recent highs (~1.6%), but with global bond yields easing after Fed signals, the Yen has stabilized around ¥148-149 per dollar (broadly flat on the day) 10 .
India – Index Rebound on RBI Easing and Tech Boost
India’s stock indices snapped a 7-session slide. By mid-morning Sept. 30, the Nifty 50 was up ~0.18% (~24,680) and Sensex ~0.14% (~80,470) reuters.com. Markets had fallen ~3% over the prior week, so Tuesday’s 0.4% bounce indicates some bargain-hunting. Religare’s Ajit Mishra notes that “oversold positions after the recent sell-off may now lead to some consolidation” around the 24,400-24,500 zone 11 .
Heavyweights drove the recovery. RBI’s surprise easing of bank lending rules (broadening gold-backed loans and easing capital norms) sparked a rally in bank stocks reuters.com. ICICI Direct explained that the “move improves rate transmission, broadens gold-based lending and relaxes capital norms, which can aid credit flow” reuters.com. Likewise, metal names jumped +1% on a softer dollar and supply concerns reuters.com. In tech, Coforge (+2.6%) rallied after CLSA initiated coverage with an “outperform” call on its improving earnings outlook 12 .
Not all was rosy: India saw $2.55B of foreign equity outflows in September, reflecting caution ahead of Wednesday’s RBI policy meeting reuters.com. Analysts say markets will likely hold steady on Wednesday (all 30 economists in a Reuters poll expect no rate change) reuters.com. A surprise in policy could roil markets. Separately, small cap Man Industries slumped 8% after SEBI barred the firm and its executives over alleged fund diversion reuters.com, a cautionary note on governance.
ASEAN & Asia Emerging – Cautious Optimism and Mixed Data
Among Southeast Asia and other Asian markets, recent trends continued. Vietnam’s VN-Index, though near 11-month highs, eased slightly as foreign investors “sell to lock in profits” ahead of an anticipated FTSE upgrade reuters.com. Vietnam’s index is still up ~29% YTD, buoyed by massive IPOs (e.g. Techcom Securities’ $410M deal) and credit growth reuters.com. Local strategists warn that heavy margin lending means the rally may need more caution reuters.com 7 .
Thailand’s SET index fell modestly as new data underscored economic headwinds. August factory output collapsed by 4.19% YoY (worse than the –2.0% forecast) reuters.com, hit by shrinking exports, falling tourist arrivals, and a strong baht. The industry minister called the drop “alarming” reuters.com and signaled that 2025 growth forecasts will be cut (now 0–0.5%). Credit rating agency Fitch recently downgraded Thailand’s outlook to “negative”, citing fiscal strains on the new government.
In Malaysia, the equity market has been relatively steady. Of note this week, Malaysia’s biggest IPO in 13 years won regulatory approval: port operator MMC Port plans an October listing that could raise >$1.5B reuters.com. The central bank last month lowered its full-year GDP forecast to 4.0–4.8% (down from 4.5–5.5%), warning of global tariff drag reuters.com – a factor for traders to watch.
Indonesia saw another surprise central bank rate cut on Sept. 17 (BI’s 6th cut since 2024) to 4.75%, and stocks jumped on the news reuters.com reuters.com. The Jakarta Composite briefly hit a record high, and the rupiah firmed slightly after the decision reuters.com. However, concerns about BI’s independence and the fiscal burden-share deal keep some investors wary 13 .
The Philippines continues to navigate Fed spillovers and trade policy. The BSP has signaled two more rate cuts this year reuters.com. Importantly, President Trump announced on Sept. 26 a 19% tariff on Philippine exports (down slightly from the previously threatened 20%) – a relief to Manila for now reuters.com. BSP Governor Eli Remolona noted the US trade deal reduces uncertainty and emphasized strong domestic fundamentals (remittances, low inflation) even as global risks (oil, geopolitics) loom reuters.com 14 .
Currencies and Commodities – USD, FX and Oil
Asian currencies traded in narrow ranges. The Japanese yen traded around ¥148.5 per USD (slightly weaker on the day) reuters.com. The dollar index (DXY) was flat near 97.5 after slipping Monday. The Australian dollar rose ~0.5% after the RBA decision investing.com. The Indian rupee held ~88.1 per USD (near flat), and the Indonesian rupiah was about IDR 15,800 (slightly firmer on reports of central bank FX support). China’s onshore yuan was also steady (about 7.15/$) after recent declines. Overall, FX markets reflected the same risk balance: cautious ahead of U.S. budget talks and Fed cues.
In commodities, gold dominated headlines. It set an all-time high above $3,800/oz as safe-haven demand spiked reuters.com. Oil prices dipped: Brent crude fell about 0.4% to ~$67.7/bbl, pressured by an unexpected OPEC+ decision to raise output reuters.com and by ample global inventories. Energy stocks were mixed on this news.
Global Context and Outlook
Asian markets are not in isolation. A looming U.S. budget showdown is keeping investors watchful: a shutdown from Oct. 1 could delay key data (payrolls, Fed-related reports). As Amanda Cooper of Reuters notes, markets have historically shrugged off short shutdowns, but “if the shutdown lasts beyond the Fed meeting, the Fed will rely on private data” reuters.com. Fed futures still imply a high probability of an October rate cut (≈90%) reuters.com, which is underpinning equity optimism.
Geopolitics also matters. The recent US-Japan tariff deal (a 15% cap on auto duties) is a relief for Japanese exporters reuters.com, while Trump’s tariffs on Chinese and SE Asian goods (like the Philippines) are new variables. On Sept. 30, OPEC+ unexpectedly agreed to boost crude output, which helped Asia’s energy importers but added pressure on global oil prices. Meanwhile, any flare-ups in the Middle East could quickly lift oil and safe-haven flows.
Analyst forecasts: Most strategists see Asian markets holding near current levels or rising modestly into year-end. HSBC in late Sept. flagged attractive valuations in India and expects global funds to keep rotating into Asia’s underowned markets. Goldman’s note warned of holiday volatility, but high-level fund flows into Korea and Taiwan suggest foreign appetite remains. As Federated Hermes’ Jonathan Pines notes, “even though [Asian] markets are up significantly, we believe they have further to go” once reforms (like Korea’s governance changes) play out. 15 .
Sector watch: Tech and consumer tech stocks continue to draw interest (China mobile and AI names are popular in Hong Kong/Shanghai). Bank shares are in focus across Asia for their sensitivity to rate moves. In India, IT services firms await October deal wins, while real estate names are watching new housing policies. Watch currencies too: any sudden USD move (on Fed news) could ripple through Asian equities, especially in export-driven economies like Taiwan and Korea.
In summary, Asian markets enter early October on a cautiously upbeat note: Key facts include record gold, a slew of big IPOs, and steady policy backdrop. Investors will be tracking U.S. fiscal developments and Fed signals closely, while digesting local corporate earnings and data. As one analyst quipped, Asia’s markets are “running on gold fumes and FOMO from IPO queues” – but tempered by the usual macro jitters reuters.com reuters.com. The next few days of trading will reveal whether the rally has legs or if consolidation is in store.
Sources: Reuters market reports and data from Sept. 29–30, 2025 reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com reuters.com (see text). These include expert quotes and live market figures to ensure up-to-date accuracy.
