ASX 200 Today: Index Rebounds From Near Six‑Month Low as Banks, Miners Lift the Market – 24 November 2025

After one of its roughest weeks of 2025, the S&P/ASX 200 is trying to claw back lost ground on Monday, 24 November. By late morning in Sydney, the benchmark index was up around 1.1%, or roughly 90 points, trading near 8,507 as every major sector moved higher in early trade. ^[1]

The bounce comes after a brutal Friday session where the ASX 200 slumped 1.6% to close at 8,416.5, wiping almost $40 billion from the market and marking a fourth straight weekly loss of around 2.5%. ^[2] The index is still roughly 7–8% below its October record high of just over 9,100 points, meaning talk of a possible technical correction (a 10% slide from a recent peak) hasn’t gone away. ^[3]

Today’s rally is being powered by a risk‑on mood from Wall Street, revived hopes of a December US Federal Reserve rate cut, and a wave of local corporate news – from takeover action at Qube and Monash IVF to fresh updates from Pro Medicus, DroneShield and BHP. But with a pivotal new inflation report due on Wednesday, investors are treating this rebound as a potential relief rally rather than an all‑clear signal. ^[4]

ASX 200 Today: Broad‑Based Early Rebound

Market futures set the tone early. Before the opening bell, SPI futures pointed to a gain of about 1.1%, with contracts on the ASX 200 trading around 8,519 points. ^[5] The cash market duly followed through:

• By about 10:00–10:15am AEDT, the S&P/ASX 200 was up roughly 90 points, or just over 1%, around 8,507. ^[6]
• Market Index’s live blog described “plenty of green on the screens”, noting that every sector was trading higher in early action. ^[7]

Financials, industrials and large‑cap cyclicals are leading the rebound, consistent with pre‑market commentary that predicted a relief rally in the very stocks that bore the brunt of last week’s slump. TechStock²+1

Even so, the index remains well below its October peak near 9,115 points, having broken decisively under its 200‑day moving average during last week’s sell‑off. ^[8] In other words, today’s move is a recovery attempt inside what is still, for now, a short‑term downtrend.

How We Got Here: From Record Highs to Near Six‑Month Lows

The backdrop to today’s bounce is a November correction that has been both sharp and broad‑based.

• Over the week to Friday 21 November, the ASX 200 dropped about 2.5%, taking its total November decline to nearly 5% and putting it on track for its worst month since September 2022. ^[9]
• Several commentators estimate that between $40–60 billion of market value has been erased in recent sessions as the index approached a near six‑month low. ^[10]

A key turning point came on Tuesday, 18 November:

• The ASX 200 plunged 1.94%, its third‑worst session of the year (outside the April “tariff sell‑off”), and finished the day decisively below its 200‑day moving average. ^[11]
• All 11 sectors finished in the red, with Tech down about 6%, Materials roughly 3% lower and Financials off close to 2%. ^[12]
• By then, the index was already around 7.3% below its 21 October record high. ^[13]

Later in the week, Friday’s 1.6% slide to 8,416.5 compounded the damage:

• ABC’s markets blog noted that the index was about 7.6% below its October record high, bringing it uncomfortably close to the textbook 10% correction threshold. ^[14]
• A Reuters‑linked recap highlighted that banks had been a major drag, and that every ASX 200 sector finished lower on the day. ^[15]

What’s been driving the sell‑off?

Several overlapping themes emerged across the week:

1. Global AI and tech valuation jitters
   Concerns about an “AI bubble” – particularly around mega‑cap names like Nvidia – triggered volatility in US tech, which spilled over into high‑multiple Australian growth stocks. ^[16] The local All Tech index has dropped sharply, with some commentary estimating a fall of more than 16% in November alone. ^[17]
2. Shifting rate‑cut expectations
   Hawkish Federal Reserve minutes, solid US employment data and stronger‑than‑expected domestic inflation and wages figures have all chipped away at hopes for rapid easing from central banks. ^[18] Australian 10‑year bond yields have pushed towards the top of their 2½‑year range, putting pressure on equity valuations, especially for financials and long‑duration growth names. ^[19]
3. Local macro surprises
   Australia’s Q3 2025 CPI came in hotter than expected, with the RBA’s preferred trimmed‑mean inflation measure ticking up to 3.0% year‑on‑year, its first increase since late 2022. ^[20] That undermined confidence in the RBA’s easing cycle and contributed to the November rout in bank stocks.
4. Sector rotations and stock‑specific shocks
   • Tech and defence names such as DroneShield have been among the hardest hit, with one report describing the stock’s fall from market darling to cautionary tale after governance concerns, insider selling and a mis‑labelled US contract announcement. TechStock²+2aceinvestors.com.au+2
   • At the same time, staples and gold miners have held up relatively well as investors rotated into defensives during the turbulence. ^[21]

Against this backdrop, some analysts have argued that the ASX 200 has become oversold and “due for a short‑term bounce,” even while warning that the bearish drivers – from AI froth to sticky inflation – haven’t gone away. ^[22]

Wall Street Rally and Rate‑Cut Hopes Power Monday’s Bounce

Monday’s rebound on the ASX is tightly linked to Friday’s late‑session surge on Wall Street.

According to ABC’s overnight wrap:

• The Dow Jones gained about 1.1%, the S&P 500 rose 1.0% and the Nasdaq added 0.9%, reversing early losses and closing a choppy week on a stronger note. ^[23]
• The catalyst was a set of comments from New York Fed president John Williams, who indicated that a rate cut “in the near term” was possible without jeopardising the Fed’s inflation goals. ^[24]
• Market pricing for a December rate cut jumped, with some estimates putting the probability north of 60–70%, even though other Fed officials continued to argue for patience. ^[25]

Risk assets responded accordingly:

• US yields eased, the US dollar softened, gold steadied around US$4,060–4,070 an ounce, and oil fell roughly 1.3–1.6% as traders weighed the possibility of progress towards a Russia‑Ukraine peace deal and the implications for global supply. ^[26]

For Australian investors, the implications were immediate:

• ASX 200 futures jumped around 92 points (+1.1%) into the Monday open, and early cash‑market trading largely delivered on that signal. ^[27]

At the same time, several major outlets – including Reuters‑linked coverage cited in local previews – continue to warn that AI‑linked valuations remain stretched, with big‑tech debt issuance, high “Buffett indicator” readings and choppy crypto markets all supporting the idea that volatility may persist into year‑end. TechStock²+1

Sectors and Stocks Driving the ASX 200 Today

Banks and Financials: Rebound After November Drubbing

Heavyweight financials have been central to both the sell‑off and today’s bounce:

• IG’s weekly wrap noted that the Australia 200 financials sector had fallen more than 7% in November, dragged down by sharp corrections in the major banks and Macquarie. ^[28]
• Pre‑market commentary from TS2.tech and Market Index suggested that banks and diversified financials were likely to participate strongly in any relief rally, given how hard they were hit during the downturn. TechStock²+1

With bond yields easing slightly and futures pointing higher, early trading has seen the major banks firm, helping to stabilise index sentiment after last week’s persistent selling.

Resources, Infrastructure and Takeovers: Qube, BHP and Macmahon

Corporate action and global commodity moves are also shaping Monday’s trade:

• Qube (QUB) is one of the standout early movers after Macquarie Asset Management lobbed a conditional, non‑binding takeover proposal at $5.20 per share via a scheme of arrangement. Qube’s board has entered an exclusivity deed through 1 February 2026 and indicated it will unanimously recommend the proposal in the absence of a superior bid and subject to an independent expert’s approval. ^[29]
• BHP is in focus after a whirlwind 24 hours of deal headlines. Market previews on Monday morning cited Reuters reports that BHP had renewed its approach to Anglo American, but ABC’s live blog later relayed confirmation from the miner that preliminary talks had ended and it is “no longer considering” a combination. ^[30]
• Macmahon Holdings has secured a major underground mining contract with PT Freeport Indonesia at the Kucing Liar project, extending a long‑running relationship and providing multi‑year revenue visibility through to 2041. The company has left FY26 guidance unchanged for now. ^[31]

In the broader resources space, iron ore is holding around US$104–105 a tonne, offering a measure of support to big miners such as BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue, while oil’s slide below US$60 a barrel is a mild headwind for energy producers but supportive for inflation expectations. TechStock²+2ABC+2

Tech and Growth: From “Gutted” Sector to Selective Buying

Last week’s slump was particularly severe in technology:

• The S&P/ASX 200 Tech index has fallen about 26% since late September, with high‑multiple names such as Xero, WiseTech, Technology One and Pro Medicus sold aggressively as investors reassessed stretched earnings multiples amid rising yields and AI valuation jitters. ^[32]

Today, traders are watching closely to see whether investors are willing to “buy the dip”:

• Pro Medicus (PME) delivered an upbeat trading update at its AGM, highlighting that FY26 year‑to‑date sales have already reached at least $273 million in total contract value, supported by new US cloud‑based imaging deals and a strong pipeline into the RSNA conference. ^[33]
• TS2.tech notes that WiseTech Global recently faced a shareholder “strike” on remuneration but reaffirmed guidance, and its share price actually rose on the day of the AGM – a sign that investors remain focused on fundamentals despite governance concerns. TechStock²

The broader question for the ASX 200 is whether the tech complex can stabilise. If investors start rotating back into these names, it would signal a deeper risk‑on mood; if not, the rally may continue to favour value and defensive exposures.

Governance and Risk Sentiment: DroneShield and Mayne Pharma

Two stock‑specific sagas are acting as barometers of risk appetite in the more speculative corners of the market:

• DroneShield (DRO)
  • The stock surged more than 800% earlier this year but is now down roughly 75% from its peak after a cluster of issues including heavy insider selling (~A$70 million worth of shares), a misclassified US contract announcement and the sudden resignation of its US CEO. TechStock²+2aceinvestors.com.au+2
  • On Monday morning, the company released a detailed clarification explaining that some contracts previously described as “new” were actually re‑issued orders triggered by regulatory changes, and said it has tightened its internal validation processes. ^[34]
  • Market watchers are treating DroneShield as a proxy for sentiment in small‑cap, high‑beta defence and tech names.
• Mayne Pharma (MYX)
  • On Friday, Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocked the proposed A$672 million takeover of Mayne Pharma by US‑based Cosette Pharmaceuticals on national‑interest grounds, focusing on local manufacturing jobs. The shares slumped about 23% before a trading halt. TechStock²+1
  • Scheme documents had flagged Monday 24 November as a potential “effective date,” but with the deal now blocked, the timetable is in limbo and the market is reassessing Mayne’s standalone value. TechStock²

These stories, alongside renewed focus on remuneration, board oversight and disclosure across the tech and healthcare space, are feeding into a broader debate about governance standards on the ASX.

Macro Focus: Wednesday’s New CPI and the RBNZ Could Make or Break the Rally

While Monday’s calendar is relatively quiet for local data, the rest of the week is packed – and that’s one reason traders are hesitant to chase today’s bounce too aggressively.

Australia’s First “Full” Monthly CPI (Wednesday)

This Wednesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics will publish the October 2025 Consumer Price Index under a new methodology that delivers a complete monthly CPI series, replacing the previous partial indicator. ^[35]

• Economists at Westpac and others expect a modest 0.1% rise in the headline index for October, but because a negative print drops out of the annual comparison, year‑on‑year inflation is forecast to jump from 3.5% to around 3.9%. ^[36]
• The RBA has already flagged concerns about hotter‑than‑expected Q3 inflation, with its preferred trimmed‑mean measure rising to 3.0% and forecast to push higher into 2026 before re‑anchoring. ^[37]

The new CPI series is now the official headline measure and will heavily influence expectations for the RBA’s December meeting and the timing of any rate cuts in 2026. Futures markets currently price only very modest easing over the next six months. ^[38]

RBNZ Decision and Global Data

Beyond Wednesday’s CPI, markets are watching:

• The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Monetary Policy Statement and rate decision, where several forecasters expect another 25bp cut even after an aggressive easing cycle this year. ^[39]
• A cluster of US releases, including producer prices, retail sales, durable goods orders and consumer confidence, which will shape the Fed’s December decision and global risk sentiment. ^[40]

The Australian dollar is hovering around US$0.64, weighed down by rate‑differential expectations, commodity price wobble and broader risk sentiment. A soft but stable currency is generally supportive for exporters but keeps some imported inflation pressure in the system. TechStock²+1

Dividends, Ex‑Dates and Corporate Calendar for 24 November

The micro calendar is busy too, with a mix of ex‑dividend moves, AGMs and corporate actions that can nudge the index independently of macro sentiment.

According to Market Index and dividend calendars:

• Stocks trading ex‑dividend today (24 November) include:
  • EZZ Life Science (EZZ) – 2c final dividend (100% franked)
  • Infomedia (IFM) – 2.9c interim dividend (100% franked) ^[41]
  These ex‑dates can shave a few points from the index mechanically, even if underlying sentiment is improving.
• Dividends being paid today include HomeCo Daily Needs REIT (HDN) and TPG Telecom (TPG), among others – a reminder that the income stream from ASX 200 names remains an important part of total returns, even in choppy markets. ^[42]
• AGMs and corporate events
  • Pro Medicus (PME) and Integrated Research (IRI) are among the companies holding annual meetings, which can generate stock‑specific volatility via guidance updates and strategic commentary. ^[43]
  • Several smaller names are moving in and out of trading halts tied to capital raisings and corporate actions, including Black Dragon Gold, VHM and G11 Resources. TechStock²

On the IPO front, the ASX pipeline remains active, with Equus Energy and Sea Forest among the listings scheduled for this week, underscoring ongoing investor appetite for new capital‑raising opportunities despite recent volatility. ^[44]

What This Means for ASX 200 Investors

For anyone tracking the ASX 200 – whether via the index itself, ETFs like STW and IOZ, or portfolios benchmarked against it – today’s action sends a few clear signals:

1. This is a relief rally, not (yet) a new up‑trend
   The ASX 200 remains well below its October peak and under its 200‑day moving average. Last week’s damage was severe, and one strong session doesn’t erase the downtrend that’s been in place through November. ^[45]
2. Macro remains in the driver’s seat
   Wednesday’s new‑look CPI release and the RBNZ’s decision could either validate the current bounce (if inflation looks contained and central banks stay dovish) or reignite selling (if price pressures surprise on the upside). ^[46]
3. Sector leadership is shifting again
   • Banks, industrials and some cyclicals are leading today’s rebound after bearing much of the brunt of November’s sell‑off.
   • Tech remains under scrutiny: any sustained recovery there would be a powerful signal that risk appetite is returning, but the AI bubble debate is far from settled. TechStock²+2Market Index+2
   • Defensives such as staples and gold miners continue to play a stabilising role when volatility spikes. ^[47]
4. Corporate stories matter more in volatile tape
   Takeover speculation (Qube, Monash IVF), regulatory decisions (Mayne Pharma), governance controversies (DroneShield, WiseTech), and major contract wins (Macmahon, Pro Medicus) are all moving individual share prices by double‑digit percentages and can meaningfully sway sector indices on thin news days. ^[48]

As always, this overview is general information, not financial advice. Anyone considering investment decisions based on these developments should assess their own risk tolerance, time horizon and objectives, and, where appropriate, speak with a licensed financial adviser.

For now, the key question for the week is simple: is today the start of a tradable year‑end rally for the ASX 200, or just a pause before another leg down if Wednesday’s inflation data disappoints?

The answer will come not just from the index level, but from which sectors – and which stories – investors choose to back as the numbers roll in.

References

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