ASX 200: What to Know Before the Australian Stock Market Opens on 26 November 2025

As the Australian share market heads into Wednesday’s session on 26 November 2025, investors are digesting a powerful cocktail of global rate‑cut optimism, surging gold and resources stocks, and fresh local corporate shocks in banking and defence tech.

Here’s a comprehensive look at the key drivers likely to shape the ASX 200 at the open tomorrow.

Quick snapshot

ASX 200 today (25 Nov): Closed up 0.14% at 8,537.0, with small caps and resources firmly in the lead. ^[1]
Futures for tomorrow: S&P/ASX 200 December futures settled around 8,628.5, up 0.9%, pointing to a slightly stronger open on Wednesday, barring overnight surprises. ^[2]
AUD/USD: Trading near 0.645 as traders brace for upcoming inflation data and watch Fed cut odds climb. ^[3]
Macro focus: RBA on hold at 3.60%, CPI and capex data due Thursday 27 November loom large over the next two sessions. ^[4]
Key stories: Ramsay Health Care rockets on a Q1 earnings beat; Bendigo and Adelaide Bank dives on anti‑money‑laundering failings; DroneShield jumps on a new $5.2m defence contract. ^[5]

1. Global lead: Rate‑cut hopes, softer yields and cheap oil

Fed cut bets keep risk assets supported

Global markets continue to trade around one big theme: the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut rates in December.

According to Reuters, traders are now pricing in around an 85% chance of a 25 basis‑point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, up sharply from about 50% just a week ago. At the same time, the benchmark U.S. 10‑year Treasury yield has dipped below 4%, reflecting growing confidence that the Fed’s next move is down, not up. ^[6]

This backdrop has helped:

Global equities grind higher for several sessions in a row, with the MSCI All‑World Index rising again on Tuesday. ^[7]
U.S. tech and small caps in particular remain in favour as investors lean into growth and AI‑exposed names. ^[8]

For the ASX, the key takeaway is that risk appetite is still intact, even if volatility remains elevated in big tech globally.

Oil slips toward multi‑year lows on Ukraine peace hopes

Another supportive factor for local equities—especially transport, airlines and consumer sectors—is cheaper oil.

WTI crude futures recently traded around US$58 a barrel, near multi‑year lows. ^[9]
Analysts link the move partly to renewed hopes for a diplomatic breakthrough in the Russia‑Ukraine conflict, which would reduce supply‑disruption risk. ^[10]

Lower energy costs are good news for inflation and household budgets, though they can be a drag on pure‑play energy producers.

What this means for the ASX open

Put simply:

Global sentiment: Positive but not euphoric – investors are optimistic about rate cuts but still watching data closely. ^[11]
Lead for Wednesday: The tone from Wall Street and Europe is broadly constructive, giving the ASX 200 scope to extend gains, especially in rate‑sensitive growth, tech and small caps, assuming no overnight shock.

2. ASX 200 recap: Miners and gold do the heavy lifting

On Tuesday 25 November, the S&P/ASX 200 managed a modest rise:

Index close: 8,537.0, up 11.9 points (+0.14%).
All Ords: 8,824.2, up 0.27%.
Small Ords: +1.49% and Emerging Companies: +2.40%, signalling renewed risk‑on appetite further down the market cap spectrum. ^[12]

Sector performance

The leadership was clear:

Materials: +1.7% – helped by stronger iron ore prices in Asia and renewed interest in critical minerals. ^[13]
Information Technology: +1.2% – aligning with the global tech bid. ^[14]
Energy: +0.63% despite softer crude, reflecting stock‑specific dynamics. ^[15]

Laggards included:

Financials: –0.67%, dragged lower by Bendigo and Adelaide Bank and Commonwealth Bank of Australia. ^[16]
Consumer Staples, Real Estate, Utilities: each fell around 0.5–0.6%, a sign that investors rotated away from defensives. ^[17]

Gold and resources on fire

The standout story on Tuesday was the gold and broader resources complex:

The gold sub‑index (XGD) surged about 3.4%, with Newmont, Westgold and Evolution Mining among the strongest gainers. ^[18]
Iron ore majors such as Champion Iron, Fortescue and Rio Tinto all rallied as prices for benchmark iron ore strengthened in Asian trade. ^[19]
Lithium names—which were hit hard earlier in the week—staged a rebound, helped by signs that the recent price surge is cooling but still well above mid‑year levels. ^[20]

With the Materials sector now firmly back in the driver’s seat, BHP, RIO, FMG and the lithium cohort will again be key to Wednesday’s open.

3. The big stock stories to watch on Wednesday

Ramsay Health Care (RHC): Is this the turning point?

Ramsay Health Care was the top blue‑chip gainer on Tuesday:

The stock jumped about 12–13%, closing near $35.95. ^[21]
The move followed a strong Q1 FY26 update showing revenue up 6.5% and EBIT up 5.8%, beating both RBC and broader market expectations. ^[22]
Management guided to higher full‑year earnings, a notable shift after a very challenging FY25 marked by steep profit declines. ^[23]

After such a sharp single‑day move, Wednesday’s session will test:

Whether momentum traders keep piling in, or
If profit‑taking emerges from long‑suffering holders who’ve been waiting for a bounce.

Healthcare is a heavyweight sector in the ASX 200, so RHC’s follow‑through could have index‑level implications.

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN): AML scandal overhang

The negative outlier of the day was Bendigo and Adelaide Bank:

A Deloitte investigation found deficiencies in Bendigo’s anti‑money‑laundering and counter‑terrorism‑financing controls, extending beyond a single branch and touching core risk management frameworks. ^[24]
Shares slumped about 7–8% to roughly $10.1–10.2, their lowest level since April, making BEN one of the worst performers on the financials index. ^[25]

The bank’s board has said it is “very disappointed” and is working to strengthen systems and comply fully with Australia’s AML/CTF laws. ^[26]

For Wednesday:

Regulatory risk from AUSTRAC and possible remediation costs could keep BEN under pressure.
The scandal also raises broader questions around compliance costs and reputational risk for mid‑tier and regional banks, potentially weighing on the Financials sector more broadly.

DroneShield (DRO): Defence tech back in favour

DroneShield, the ASX‑listed counter‑drone technology specialist, delivered one of the day’s most eye‑catching moves:

The company announced a new $5.2 million contract with an existing European reseller that supplies its systems to an unnamed European military. ^[27]
The deal is an extension of a longstanding relationship; the reseller has placed over $70 million of orders in the past three years. ^[28]
Shares spiked as much as 16% intraday, last seen up about 10–11% by the afternoon close. ^[29]

The contract also comes after governance concerns earlier this month, when senior executives sold more than $70 million of stock and the company mis‑announced a U.S. government contract before correcting itself. ^[30]

Heading into Wednesday:

Traders will be watching whether DRO can hold onto its gains or whether the governance overhang limits further upside.
The move also highlights ongoing interest in defence and national security themes on the ASX.

4. Macro backdrop: RBA on hold, but inflation and capex are coming

RBA: Still on “gentle but restrictive” hold

The Reserve Bank of Australia kept the cash rate at 3.60% at its November 4 meeting, after a surprise rebound in Q3 inflation. ^[31]

Key points from the RBA’s November communications:

Policy is considered “restrictive enough” to guide inflation back towards target over time. ^[32]
Inflation is expected to remain above the 2–3% target band until at least mid‑2026, with capacity constraints and strong housing‑related costs keeping price pressures sticky. ^[33]
The Board has signalled it is data‑dependent, but markets no longer see an immediate follow‑up cut after the three reductions earlier this year. ^[34]

For equities, that translates into:

Lower borrowing costs than a year ago, but
Still higher‑for‑longer rates than pre‑COVID, with the RBA wary of re‑igniting inflation.

Consumer confidence edges higher – but inflation fears rise

Fresh data out today showed a tentative improvement in household sentiment:

The ANZ‑Roy Morgan Consumer Confidence Index rose 2.9 points to 87.1, its highest reading since early September. ^[35]
The biggest boost came from the “time to buy a major household item” sub‑index, which jumped 6 points, likely thanks to pre‑Black Friday discounting. ^[36]
However, weekly inflation expectations climbed to 5.4%, the highest since late 2023, underscoring ongoing cost‑of‑living anxiety. ^[37]

This mixed backdrop is crucial for:

Retailers, who may benefit from short‑term sale‑driven spending.
Banks and discretionary names, where persistent inflation expectations can still weigh on medium‑term demand and credit quality.

The data ahead: CPI and capex on Thursday

While there are no major ABS releases scheduled for Wednesday 26 November, markets are firmly focused on Thursday 27 November, when two key data sets hit at 11:30am Canberra time: ^[38]

Consumer Price Index, Australia – October 2025
Private New Capital Expenditure and Expected Expenditure – September 2025

These releases matter because:

The CPI print is the first full look at October prices and will heavily influence expectations for the February 2026 RBA meeting.
The capex survey is a key input into GDP forecasts and provides a read on business investment appetite—crucial for mining, construction and industrials.

ANZ economists expect a slight disinflation in the October CPI compared with September, but still elevated overall. ^[39]

Wednesday’s trade is therefore likely to have an element of “positioning ahead of Thursday”, particularly in:

Rate‑sensitive stocks (property, utilities, high‑PE tech);
Banks, where loan growth and credit quality hinge on the rate path;
Retailers and consumer names, which react quickly to changes in spending and inflation.

5. Commodities and currency: The resource engine still matters

Lithium: Rally cools, but prices still high

Lithium has been one of 2025’s most volatile stories, and the latest update shows the recent surge taking a breather:

Spodumene spot prices are down about 2% in recent days.
Lithium carbonate futures have slipped around 1%. ^[40]
Even after that pullback, spodumene is still up roughly 83% since June, and lithium carbonate is up about 26%, driven by tight supply and strong battery demand. ^[41]

The moderation is linked to expectations that CATL’s Jianxiawo mine in China may resume operations next month, easing some supply constraints. ^[42]

For ASX investors, this means:

Lithium names (CXO, GLN, WC8, PLL, etc.) could remain very sensitive to headlines around Chinese supply and EV demand.
Tuesday’s bounce may continue if sentiment improves—but the fundamental message from analysts is that a repeat of the 2022 super‑spike is unlikely given new supply coming online. ^[43]

Iron ore and gold: Still supportive

While we don’t have a fresh official print for iron ore for every hour of the day, the MarketIndex Evening Wrap notes that a stronger iron ore price in Asia on Tuesday helped lift majors such as Fortescue (+2.7%) and Rio Tinto (+2.3%). ^[44]

As long as benchmark iron ore stays north of US$100/t, miners should retain earnings support, and by extension, the ASX 200 should benefit from their heavy weighting.

Gold remains underpinned by:

Lower bond yields and rising expectations of Fed cuts, which reduce the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets. ^[45]

That helps explain why gold miners have been such strong performers on the local market—even when spot gold prices move only modestly.

AUD: Stuck in the middle

The Australian dollar sits around US$0.645, down slightly on the day as traders adopt a cautious stance ahead of the upcoming CPI release. ^[46]

Fed cut hopes support risk sentiment and commodities, which is normally AUD‑positive.
But sticky domestic inflation and an RBA that’s in no rush to ease further keep rate‑differential dynamics complicated.

For listed companies:

Exporters and resource names benefit from a relatively soft AUD, which boosts translated earnings.
Import‑dependent retailers and manufacturers continue to face higher landed costs, which can squeeze margins if they can’t fully pass prices on to consumers.

6. What to watch at the open on 26 November 2025

Based on Tuesday’s closing data and overnight leads, here are the key themes likely to dictate the tone when the ASX bell rings on Wednesday:

1. Can resources keep carrying the index?

Watch BHP, RIO, FMG, CIA plus the lithium cluster (CXO, GLN, WC8 and peers).
If iron ore and lithium sentiment remains firm, the Materials sector could again offset any weakness in Financials.

2. Will Financials stay under pressure?

Bendigo and Adelaide Bank (BEN) will be in focus as investors digest the AML findings and speculations about AUSTRAC’s next steps. ^[47]
The major banks, especially CBA, may experience some guilt‑by‑association selling or cautious trading amid heightened regulatory scrutiny for the sector.

3. Follow‑through in healthcare and tech

Ramsay Health Care (RHC) needs to prove Tuesday’s rally is more than a one‑day short squeeze. Look for broker upgrades, volume, and any additional management commentary. ^[48]
Tech and growth names that track global AI optimism could remain bid if U.S. futures hold up into the local open.

4. Pre‑positioning ahead of CPI and capex

With CPI and capex data due Thursday, expect:

Rate‑sensitive sectors (REITs, utilities, some high‑multiple tech) to trade cautiously.
Defensives (healthcare, consumer staples) to see mixed flows as investors weigh earnings visibility against valuation.
Increased activity in index futures and options as institutions fine‑tune exposure.

7. Practical takeaways for investors

Without giving personal financial advice, here are some practical ways traders and investors might use this information:

Know what’s driving the index
The ASX 200’s Tuesday gain was almost entirely about resources and gold, not banks. If you only look at the headline index level, you may miss that Financials actually fell, which has implications for portfolio concentration. ^[49]
Watch for sector rotation, not just direction
With global rate‑cut optimism lifting growth assets and local macro data looming, sector rotation—from banks into resources, or from defensives into cyclicals—may matter more than whether the index finishes a few points up or down.
Treat one‑day moves with caution
Huge single‑session moves in stocks like Ramsay Health Care or DroneShield may not fully reflect long‑term fundamentals. Volatility can cut both ways in the following session. ^[50]
Keep Thursday circled on the calendar
Whatever happens at Wednesday’s open, Thursday’s CPI and capex releases could quickly reset expectations for the RBA and the broader economy. Short‑term moves on Wednesday may be as much about positioning ahead of that data as about new information.

Important note

This article is based on information available up to 25 November 2025 from reputable public sources and is intended for general information only. It does not constitute financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always consider your own objectives, financial situation and needs, and seek professional advice before making investment decisions.

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