ASX Today: 10 Things to Know Before the Australian Stock Market Opens on 25 November 2025

Sydney, Monday 24 November 2025 – The Australian share market is poised for a positive start on Tuesday, with futures pointing higher after a powerful rebound on the ASX and a tech-led rally on Wall Street. Traders heading into the 25 November open will be juggling three big themes: surging M&A activity at home, renewed hopes of a US Federal Reserve rate cut in December, and a pivotal new inflation print for Australia due tomorrow.

1. Futures signal a stronger open above 8,500

At 7am AEST on Tuesday, SPI futures were up about 0.45%, flagging a solid follow‑through for the S&P/ASX 200 after Monday’s rally. ^[1]

On Monday, the ASX 200 jumped 1.3% to 8,525.10, its strongest session since mid‑July, as investors piled back into banks, miners and industrials. All major sectors rose except energy, with financials up around 1%, industrials almost 3% and miners roughly 1%. ^[2]

The immediate takeaway for Tuesday’s open:

The index is back comfortably above 8,500, a level that had started to look shaky last week.
Futures suggest follow‑through buying, rather than a “dead‑cat bounce”, at least at the opening bell.
The tone is risk‑on, but selective, with takeover targets and quality cyclicals in the spotlight.

2. Wall Street’s tech surge and Fed hopes set the tone

Overnight leads are decisively positive:

Dow Jones: up about 0.65%
S&P 500: up roughly 1.65%
Nasdaq Composite: up around 2.7% as AI‑linked megacaps roared back. ^[3]

The trigger was a combination of:

Dovish commentary from Fed Governor Christopher Waller, who said he would support a rate cut at the next meeting if labour data allow. ^[4]
Earlier comments from New York Fed President John Williams that policy could be eased “in the near term”. ^[5]

As a result, futures markets now imply around an 80% chance that the Fed delivers its third rate cut of 2025 in December, up from roughly 40% just a week ago. ^[6]

High‑beta tech names led the charge:

Tesla jumped after a broker labelled it a “must‑own” around its Full Self Driving and AI chip story.
Nvidia rallied as the US administration edged closer to allowing exports of more powerful H200 chips to China.
Amazon climbed on plans to invest up to US$50 billion in AI and high‑performance computing for US government agencies. ^[7]

For the ASX:

A booming Nasdaq and friendlier Fed expectations typically support local tech (XTX) and growth‑heavy names like Xero, WiseTech and the buy‑now‑pay‑later cohort.
Lower expected US rates support risk assets globally, including Australian banks and property trusts, via lower discount rates.

3. Commodities and the Aussie dollar: supportive, not spectacular

Iron ore and base metals

Iron ore is holding just above US$104 per tonne, up slightly on the day and steady in November overall. ^[8]

This backdrop is constructive for the big miners:

BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue head into Tuesday with both volume and price support from China, even as steel demand rotates away from property and toward autos, machinery and exports. ^[9]

Energy and oil

Oil has softened over recent sessions but stabilised overnight:

Brent crude is trading around US$62–63 a barrel. ^[10]

Lower oil is a mixed bag:

It can pressure energy producers on revenue and cash flow.
It helps transport, retail and airlines on the cost side.
It generally supports a disinflationary narrative ahead of tomorrow’s CPI print.

Gold and precious metals

Gold is hovering slightly above US$4,050–4,070 per ounce, effectively flat on the day, as traders balance a firm US dollar against rising Fed cut odds. ^[11]

That keeps the backdrop favourable for ASX gold producers: elevated prices plus potential for lower global yields.

AUD/USD

The Australian dollar is trading near US$0.646, towards the lower end of its 12‑month range but off recent lows. ^[12]

For Tuesday’s open, this mix implies:

Miners: supported by iron ore and a relatively soft AUD.
Energy: facing headwinds from lower oil prices.
Defensives & yield plays: underpinned by the prospect of lower global bond yields.

4. Big corporate stories: Qube–Macquarie deal and BHP’s Anglo retreat

Qube: A$11.6bn bid electrifies industrials

The standout local story is the takeover tilt at Qube Holdings:

A Macquarie Asset Management‑led consortium has lobbed a cash offer of A$5.20 per share, valuing Qube at around A$11.6 billion and close to A$12 billion enterprise value. ^[13]
Qube has entered exclusive talks with the Macquarie group.
The stock surged almost 20% on Monday to a record high, driving a 2.7% jump in the industrials sector and contributing materially to the ASX 200’s 1.3% gain. ^[14]

Why it matters for Tuesday:

Qube will remain front and centre on open, as traders handicap the odds of a higher bid or rival suitor.
The deal underscores that infrastructure‑style logistics assets remain highly prized, supporting sentiment around other ports, rail, and freight names.

BHP: walking away from Anglo American

BHP has confirmed it will no longer pursue a merger with Anglo American, after preliminary talks. ^[15]

Key points:

This is BHP’s second failed run at Anglo in roughly 18 months, after a large 2024 proposal also ended without a deal. ^[16]
The miner argues that while the tie‑up had strategic merit—particularly for copper exposure—it will now focus on organic growth projects instead. ^[17]
BHP shares rose modestly on Monday, as investors welcomed the reduced execution risk and preserved balance sheet. ^[18]

At Tuesday’s open:

Expect BHP to trade as a pure play on copper, iron ore and discipline, rather than a transformational M&A story.
Anglo and Teck’s planned copper‑heavy merger still looms in the background, but that’s more a medium‑term competitive narrative than an immediate ASX driver.

Monash IVF: healthcare M&A heats up

In healthcare, Monash IVF Group (ASX: MVF) will remain on watch:

The fertility provider has rejected an indicative takeover bid worth about A$311–312 million, or 80c per share, from a consortium including Genesis Capital and Washington H. Soul Pattinson, calling the offer “opportunistic” and undervalued. ^[19]
Shares surged as much as 30–40% on the news, trading above the offer price as the market priced in the prospect of a sweetened bid. ^[20]

This reinforces a key theme for Tuesday: cash‑rich buyers are hunting for quality assets in infrastructure, healthcare and logistics, providing a supportive floor under selective mid‑caps.

5. Domestic data and central banks: CPI, jobs and the RBNZ

Australia’s first full monthly CPI lands on Wednesday

Tomorrow’s session will be heavily influenced by anticipation of the ABS’s first full monthly CPI release, covering October 2025 and due on Wednesday 26 November. ^[21]

Commonwealth Bank economists expect: ^[22]

Headline CPI to fall 0.2% in October, taking annual inflation down to around 3.6%.
Electricity rebates in NSW and WA to deliver a sharp drop in power prices, partly offsetting persistent cost pressures in housing and services.

The RBA has signalled it will still lean on quarterly data while the new monthly series beds down, but markets will treat this as a key signal on whether inflation is easing back into the 2–3% target band or getting stuck towards the top end. ^[23]

Labour market: job growth slowing

Fresh analysis from Deloitte Access Economics highlights a clear slowdown in Australian job creation:

The economy added around 81,500 jobs over the last six months, barely half the 151,300 created in the prior half‑year.
October alone saw a strong 42,200 jobs added, but the underlying trend is one of cooling hiring momentum, especially in white‑collar roles. ^[24]

For the RBA, this complicates the picture:

Inflation is still sticky enough to rule out rapid easing.
But a softer labour market argues against aggressive further tightening.

Consumer sentiment finally turns optimistic

Offsetting the labour‑market slowdown, consumer confidence has flipped to net‑positive for the first time in almost four years:

The Westpac–Melbourne Institute index jumped 12.8% to 103.8 in November, its highest non‑pandemic reading in seven years and the first time optimists outnumber pessimists since early 2022. ^[25]

This mix—slower jobs growth but much happier households—feeds into the narrative that domestic demand may hold up better than feared, which is supportive for:

Retailers and discretionary stocks, heading into Christmas.
Banks, via credit quality and loan growth.

RBNZ decision and the Kiwi cross

Across the Tasman, markets are fully pricing a 25bp rate cut from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand on Wednesday, after a run of softer data. ^[26]

That matters for:

AUD/NZD traders, with some strategists warning that the Aussie’s recent outperformance versus the Kiwi may pause or reverse if the RBNZ sounds less dovish than expected. ^[27]
Dual‑listed names and trans‑Tasman plays on the ASX, which can be sensitive to Kiwi growth expectations.

6. Sector watch: where the action is likely to be

Based on Monday’s flows and overnight news, here’s where attention is likely to concentrate at the open:

1. Industrials & infrastructure

Qube and peers will dominate the tape as traders re‑rate takeover probabilities across ports, rail and logistics. ^[28]

2. Major miners & materials

BHP, Rio, Fortescue: supported by firm iron ore and BHP’s renewed focus on organic growth. ^[29]
Gold miners: underpinned by historically high gold prices and a softer US rate trajectory. ^[30]

3. Banks and financials

The big four banks enjoyed modest gains Monday alongside the broader risk‑on move and better consumer sentiment. ^[31]
With the Fed leaning dovish and domestic inflation potentially easing, yield curves and funding costs remain a key driver.

4. Healthcare and small‑mid caps

Monash IVF is now a live M&A story and a barometer for private‑equity appetite in healthcare. ^[32]
Other mid‑caps in healthcare, tech and specialty industrials may see sympathy buying as traders hunt the next takeover candidate.

5. Energy

Lower Brent and WTI prices could keep a lid on local energy producers, though any fresh geopolitical headlines can quickly flip that narrative. ^[33]

7. Checklist: 10 things to know before the ASX opens on 25 November 2025

SPI futures are pointing up ~0.45%, flagging a positive open for the ASX 200 after Monday’s 1.3% surge to 8,525. ^[34]
Wall Street rallied strongly, led by AI‑linked megacaps, as Fed governor Waller openly backed a December rate cut and rate‑cut odds jumped to around 80%. ^[35]
Iron ore is steady above US$104/t, supporting BHP, Rio and Fortescue, while gold remains elevated and oil hovers near US$62–63/bbl. ^[36]
Macquarie’s A$11.6bn cash offer for Qube has ignited the M&A theme in ports and logistics; Qube has entered exclusive talks, and the stock is at record highs. ^[37]
BHP has walked away from a potential Anglo American tie‑up, pleasing investors who favour organic growth and removing a major overhang on the stock. ^[38]
Monash IVF has rejected an ~A$311m bid at 80c a share, sending its stock sharply higher and reinforcing the appeal of defensive, cash‑generative healthcare names. ^[39]
Australia’s first full monthly CPI report (October 2025) lands tomorrow; CBA expects a 0.2% monthly fall and annual inflation around 3.6%, largely thanks to electricity rebates. ^[40]
Job growth is slowing, with only about 81,500 jobs added in the last six months versus 151,300 in the previous period, raising the stakes for the RBA’s dual mandate. ^[41]
Consumer sentiment has finally turned positive, with the Westpac–Melbourne index at 103.8, its first optimistic reading in almost four years – good news for retailers and banks. ^[42]
The RBNZ is expected to cut rates on Wednesday, which could stir AUD/NZD volatility and affect trans‑Tasman companies and banks with New Zealand exposure. ^[43]

8. Final word

Heading into the 25 November 2025 open, the default setting is cautious optimism:

Global markets are back in “Fed‑friendly” mode.
Domestic M&A is reminding investors that quality assets still command premiums, even after a choppy year.
A landmark monthly CPI release and a live RBNZ decision loom as the next major catalysts.

For traders, the task at the open is less about chasing the index and more about picking your spots: takeover beneficiaries, high‑quality cyclicals tied to iron ore and consumer strength, and defensives that still offer growth if the rate‑cut story stutters.

This article is general information only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Consider your own objectives and seek professional advice before acting on any information.

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