ASX Today 21 November 2025: Australian Share Market Braces for Sharp Reversal After Nvidia-Fuelled Rally

After staging its biggest one-day gain since August on Thursday, the Australian share market is poised to give much of it back today (Friday, 21 November 2025), as a violent overnight reversal on Wall Street and a steep Bitcoin sell‑off rattle risk appetite.

Futures for the S&P/ASX 200 were down about 142 points, or roughly 1.6–1.7%, around 8:45am AEDT, pointing to a sharply lower open that would unwind most of Thursday’s relief rally. ^[1]

Key points

ASX 200 closed Thursday up 1.24% at 8,552.7, its strongest session since August, with nine of 11 sectors in the green. ^[2]
The All Ordinaries ended at 8,834, up 1.29%, as miners, banks and tech stocks rallied on optimism after Nvidia’s blockbuster earnings. ^[3]
Overnight, the S&P 500 fell about 1.6% and the Nasdaq more than 2% after giving up big early gains, while Bitcoin slid firmly below US$90,000, signalling a swing from AI euphoria to risk aversion. ^[4]
ASX 200 futures are pointing to a 1.6–1.7% drop at today’s open, with SPI levels around 8,430–8,440, implying much of Thursday’s rally could be erased in one session. ^[5]
The market remains about 7% below its 21 October record high near 9,115 points, after an October/November slide that wiped roughly $220 billion off local equities. ^[6]

Thursday 20 November 2025: Nvidia sparks a powerful relief rally

Thursday’s session was, on the surface, everything the bulls had been waiting for.

According to Commonwealth Bank data, the S&P/ASX 200 jumped 104.8 points, or 1.24%, to close at 8,552.7, while the All Ordinaries rose 112.6 points (1.29%) to 8,834. It was the local market’s strongest daily gain since August, with nine of 11 sectors finishing higher and the rally anchored by heavyweight materials and financials. ^[7]

An intraday update from IG showed the index trading around 8,546 (+1.17%) by mid‑afternoon, as investors piled back into risk after US chip giant Nvidia smashed earnings expectations and guided revenue well above market forecasts. ^[8]

Tech stocks roared back:
- Block leapt more than 12%
- Zip surged close to 7%
- TechnologyOne and Megaport climbed around 5–6% intraday ^[9]
Banks finally found a bid after a bruising month:
- Macquarie rose about 2% to just under $194
- Westpac, CBA and ANZ all added around 1–1.3% as dip‑buyers stepped into a sector that had fallen roughly 8% in November. ^[10]
Battery and uranium plays stayed in the spotlight:
- Lithium stocks rallied as Chinese lithium carbonate futures climbed to about CNY 87,000 per tonne, a 14‑month high, lifting names like Liontown, Pilbara Minerals and Iluka.
- Uranium counters such as Deep Yellow, Paladin and Bannerman also bounced strongly, with traders treating them as part of the broader “AI infrastructure” trade because of their exposure to data‑centre power demand. ^[11]

Technically, Thursday’s bounce dragged the ASX 200 back above its 200‑day moving average, with IG flagging short‑term support around 8,445 and near‑term resistance in the 8,630–8,750 zone. ^[12]

A volatile backdrop: from record highs to a five‑month low

Thursday’s good news came after a bruising stretch for Australian equities.

On 18 November, the ASX 200 was trading about 2.2% lower around 8,446, a five‑month low, with all 11 sectors in the red as investors braced for Nvidia’s results and a delayed US jobs report. ^[13]
From its 21 October intraday record near 9,115 points, the index has fallen roughly 7–7.3%, wiping an estimated $220 billion off the sharemarket’s value. ^[14]

ABC and market strategists described the week’s earlier sell‑off as a “perfect storm”: worries about stretched tech valuations, rising global bond yields, and the prospect of stubbornly high inflation forcing the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep rates higher for longer—or even contemplate further hikes if price pressures don’t ease. ^[15]

A Guardian analysis noted that while the ASX is still dominated by banks and miners, AI‑linked optimism had helped push it to fresh records in October, leaving valuations vulnerable. The subsequent pullback has been framed as part of a “big shakeout” in high‑growth and AI‑adjacent names rather than a simple blip. ^[16]

Overnight on Wall Street: AI euphoria flips to risk‑off

The catalyst for today’s expected drop on the ASX came from overnight trading in the US.

At one point, US indices were up more than 2% as investors cheered Nvidia’s outlook and initially shrugged off a stronger‑than‑expected US jobs report. But by the close, that optimism had completely evaporated:

S&P 500: roughly 6,539 points, down about 1.6%
Dow Jones: 45,700–45,800, down just under 1%
Nasdaq Composite: around 22,078, down more than 2%, having swung from a 2.6% gain earlier in the session ^[17]

MarketIndex’s overnight wrap pointed to the delayed US September jobs report, which showed 119,000 jobs added and unemployment ticking up to 4.4%, still strong enough that futures markets cut the odds of a third Federal Reserve rate cut this year to below 40%. ^[18]

At the same time, Bitcoin slid firmly below US$90,000, with FNArena arguing that the cryptocurrency has become a quasi‑“sentiment gauge” for speculative risk. As Bitcoin rolled over, US indices quickly followed, reinforcing the sense that market psychology is brittle and algorithm‑driven. ^[19]

Volatility also spiked: the VIX volatility index jumped to about 26.5, up nearly 12% on the day, underscoring how jumpy global markets have become. ^[20]

Friday 21 November 2025: Futures signal a rough open for the ASX

Against that global backdrop, local traders are waking up to a very different tone than yesterday’s relief rally.

The SPI futures contract over the ASX 200 is down around 142 points (‑1.66%), implying the index could open near 8,410–8,430, not far above this week’s lows and reversing much of Thursday’s 1.24% gain. ^[21]
ABC’s morning market snapshot put ASX 200 futures at about 8,429 (-1.7%) around 8:55am AEDT, alongside:
- AUD/USD near 0.644, down roughly 0.6%
- Spot gold around US$4,078/oz, little changed
- Brent crude near US$63/barrel, down about 0.6%
- Iron ore around US$104–105/tonne, marginally higher
- Bitcoin down about 3.5% to the high‑US$80,000s ^[22]

In short, the ASX today is likely to open sharply lower, even though index levels at the time of writing still reflect pre‑market futures rather than live cash‑market trading.

Sectors to watch: banks, miners, lithium, uranium and tech

Banks: fragile rebound after a bruising month

Financials enjoyed one of their best days in weeks on Thursday, but the backdrop remains fragile.

Reuters noted that the banking sub‑index, despite Thursday’s bounce, is still down nearly 8% so far this month, on track for its weakest monthly performance since mid‑2022. ^[23]
Earlier in the week, IG highlighted how Commonwealth Bank had fallen more than 20% from its late‑June high, formally placing it in bear‑market territory, with Westpac, NAB and ANZ also under pressure. ^[24]

Given that much of Thursday’s buying was driven by short‑covering and bargain hunting, banks could again be in the firing line if today’s risk‑off mood persists.

Miners and commodities: iron ore is steady, but sentiment isn’t

Resource stocks were central to Thursday’s rally:

Reuters reported that the mining index rose about 1% on Thursday, with BHP and Rio Tinto up around 0.5–0.6%, helped by firm iron ore and copper prices. ^[25]
Gold miners added to the gains as bullion edged higher, while iron ore remains around US$104 per tonne, a level that has cushioned the big diversified miners even during equity market turbulence. ^[26]

Today, the concern is not commodity fundamentals so much as global risk appetite. If the overnight equity sell‑off deepens, cyclical names—even those backed by solid commodity prices—may struggle to hold their recent gains.

Lithium and uranium: high‑beta plays in an AI‑powered world

Battery metals and uranium have been among the most volatile pockets of the market this month.

IG’s 20 November update pointed out that Chinese lithium carbonate prices have climbed to a 14‑month high, helping drive strong moves in Liontown, Pilbara Minerals and other lithium names. ^[27]
Uranium stocks, seen by some traders as part of the AI infrastructure theme because nuclear power supports data‑centre demand, also bounced strongly yesterday after several tough weeks. ^[28]

With futures signalling a broad risk‑off day, these high‑beta sectors could face outsized swings in both directions as speculative capital moves quickly.

Technology and AI: from hero to headache

The tech sector has been at the heart of the recent volatility:

On Thursday, local tech stocks tracked Wall Street higher, with the sub‑index up around 4% intraday as Nvidia’s revenue guidance temporarily calmed fears of an AI bubble. ^[29]
Yet, as the Guardian and ABC have both highlighted, Australian tech and AI‑adjacent names like TechnologyOne and WiseTech Global have experienced sharp pullbacks this month, even after posting solid earnings, as investors question whether valuations ran ahead of fundamentals. ^[30]

Overnight, the US tech‑heavy Nasdaq reversed from gains above 2% to close more than 2% lower, and Bitcoin’s slump reinforced concerns that the “AI trade” has become crowded and fragile. That sets a challenging scene for the ASX All Tech index today. ^[31]

Macro drivers: rates, inflation and today’s data

Beyond stock‑specific moves, several macro themes are driving the Australian market this week:

US rates and jobs: The stronger US jobs print has made a third Fed cut this year less likely, pushing up real yields and reviving worries that the cost of money will stay restrictive for longer. ^[32]
RBA uncertainty: Local economists quoted by ABC note that with inflation proving sticky and the labour market still relatively tight, further RBA cuts in 2026 look less certain, and a more hawkish stance can’t be ruled out if price pressures re‑accelerate. ^[33]
Australian data: The S&P Global flash PMI for Australia is scheduled for release this morning (21 November), providing a fresh read on manufacturing and services activity. The release was embargoed until 9:00am AEDT, so markets will be reacting to the numbers as they hit the tape. ^[34]

Together, these factors help explain why the ASX 200 remains down around 3–4% for November, even after Thursday’s bounce, and why traders are treating rallies as fragile until the macro picture becomes clearer. ^[35]

Corporate diary: AGMs, ex‑dividends and deal news

Today’s weakness is likely to be felt unevenly across names with stock‑specific catalysts:

FNArena’s corporate calendar highlights a busy AGM slate, including companies ranging from Adore Beauty and Alligator Energy to Kogan.com, Lovisa, Reece, Regis Resources, Westgold Resources and WiseTech Global, along with several resources names such as BCI Minerals and Sheffield Resources. ^[36]
Orica is also trading ex‑dividend (32 cents per share), which will mechanically weigh on its share price irrespective of the broader market tone. ^[37]
Corporate activity continues in the small‑ and mid‑cap space: for example, Brightstar Resources and Aurumin have progressed schemes of arrangement and regulatory approvals tied to asset deals and listings, with some ASX suspensions and timetable milestones falling around 21 November. ^[38]

For investors, that means today’s moves will be driven not just by macro sentiment but also by stock‑specific headlines flowing from AGMs, guidance updates and transaction news.

What it means for Australian investors today

Putting it all together, the Australian stock market today (21 November 2025) sits at the intersection of three powerful forces:

A sharp but fragile rebound from this week’s five‑month low, powered by Nvidia‑linked optimism and short‑covering in beaten‑down sectors.
A renewed global risk‑off pulse, as US equities reverse hard, Bitcoin slumps and volatility spikes.
Persistent macro uncertainty, with central banks still wrestling with inflation, and questions mounting over whether the AI and tech boom has overshot fair value.

At the time of writing, the best guide to the ASX 200’s direction is futures pricing and early cash‑market trade, which suggest a significant pullback that could leave the index hovering not far above 8,400 points.

For medium‑term investors, the overarching messages from local and global analysts are fairly consistent:

Expect higher‑than‑usual day‑to‑day volatility, especially in high‑beta pockets like tech, lithium, uranium and small caps.
Focus on balance‑sheet strength, cash flow and valuation, rather than short‑term price swings.
Remember that none of the commentary coming out of live blogs, market wraps or articles like this is personal financial advice—decisions still need to be matched to your own goals, risk tolerance and time horizon.

Market Close 19 Nov 25: ASX stalls ahead of NVIDIA results