Australia’s sharemarket heads into Monday’s session bruised after a four‑week slide, but global leads are finally turning more positive. Here’s what traders and investors need to know before the ASX opens on Monday, 24 November 2025.
All data and events are based on information available up to Sunday, 23 November 2025 (AEDT). This article is general information, not financial advice.
1. ASX 200 is coming off a brutal week and flirting with “correction” territory
Friday’s session capped a painful run for local equities:
- The S&P/ASX 200 fell 1.6% on Friday to about 8,416 points, leaving the benchmark roughly 7.6% below its October record high around 9,115. [1]
- It was the fourth straight weekly loss, with almost every sector in the red. Materials dropped close to 4%, energy more than 3%, while defensive consumer staples were the only sector to sneak higher. [2]
- News.com.au and other outlets estimate tens of billions wiped off the ASX over the last week, with one earlier session described as the worst since the post–“Liberation Day” sell‑off. [3]
Market commentators note that a 10% fall from the recent peak would tip the index into a classic “correction”, so the 7–8% drawdown is now uncomfortably close to that line. [4]
The backdrop into Monday, then, is a local market that’s already been de‑rated, particularly in banks, miners and high‑multiple tech names.
2. Futures point to a solid rebound at Monday’s open – but volatility is still the main story
Despite the gloomy close on Friday, ASX SPI futures are signalling a strong bounce for the S&P/ASX 200 on Monday, with several preview pieces from the major financial press describing an expected rise of a little over 1% at the open. [5]
That futures move reflects:
- A sharp rally on Wall Street on Friday (see below)
- Softer bond yields as traders ramp up bets on a December Fed rate cut [6]
- Some short‑covering after last week’s heavy selling in Australian equities [7]
Still, the local market is coming off its worst stretch in months, and last week showed how quickly sentiment can swing intraday. Traders will be watching the early order book closely for signs that:
- Dip‑buyers are genuinely returning, not just covering shorts
- Institutions are rotating between sectors (e.g. out of banks and into defensives or quality tech)
3. Wall Street finished the week on a high thanks to dovish Fed signals
The main positive lead for Monday’s ASX session is from the US:
- On Friday, the Dow rose about 1.1%, the S&P 500 ~1.0% and the Nasdaq ~0.9%. [8]
- The rally came after New York Fed president John Williams said the Fed can still cut rates “in the near term” without jeopardising its inflation goal – remarks interpreted as a green light for a possible December rate cut. [9]
- Fed funds futures now imply roughly 70%+ odds of a cut at the December meeting, up sharply from the day before. [10]
Bond markets responded as well:
- The US 10‑year Treasury yield dipped to roughly 4.06%, and the 2‑year fell toward 3.5%, reinforcing a “soft landing with easing” narrative rather than a renewed inflation scare. [11]
For Australian investors, the takeaway is simple: global rates are back in focus. A friendlier Fed tends to:
- Support risk assets generally
- Take pressure off the RBA to stay overly hawkish
- Help growth and tech names that have been punished by higher yields
4. AI “bubble” fears are rattling tech – and that matters for ASX growth stocks
Even as Wall Street bounced on Friday, one theme running through global markets is nervousness about the artificial‑intelligence boom:
- A detailed Reuters analysis on Friday argued that the recent volatility has “revealed cracks” in the AI trade, with soaring valuations now drawing comparisons to past bubbles. [12]
- The so‑called “Buffett Indicator” (US market cap vs GDP) is sitting above 200%, higher than during the dot‑com bubble, signalling stretched valuations in aggregate. [13]
- AI leaders like Nvidia have delivered strong earnings but not the expected share‑price follow‑through, suggesting a lot of good news is already priced in. [14]
Why it matters locally:
- The ASX 200 “All Tech” index fell around 0.8% on Friday, underperforming the broader market over recent weeks. [15]
- High‑multiple tech names tied to automation, logistics and software – think WiseTech, Xero, Altium and other growth names – are sensitive to any global de‑rating of AI and tech. [16]
Into Monday, expect the tech complex to be a key sentiment barometer: if investors are prepared to buy the dip there, confidence in a broader year‑end rally will lift.
5. Commodities check: iron ore steady, oil soft, gold easing
Iron ore
- Iron ore is holding around US$104–105 a tonne, roughly flat on Friday and only modestly lower over the past month. [17]
- Weekly reports suggest prices remain under pressure but are likely to trade in a range with a slightly weak tone, as Chinese steel demand stays muted. [18]
Implication: Big miners like BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue, which were hammered in last week’s sell‑off, could see some relief buying if iron ore prices hold or firm. [19]
Oil
- Brent crude settled around US$62.56 a barrel on Friday, extending a three‑day losing streak and hitting roughly a one‑month low, as markets focused on softer demand and geopolitical de‑escalation. [20]
For the ASX:
- Lower oil prices tend to weigh on energy producers but can be mildly positive for inflation expectations and transport‑heavy sectors.
Gold
- Spot gold is trading near US$4,050–4,070 an ounce, down slightly over the last 24 hours as real yields eased but risk appetite improved. [21]
ASX‑listed gold miners have been a key defensive this year; if the “risk‑on” bounce continues Monday, gold equities may lag cyclicals and banks in relative performance.
6. Aussie dollar pinned near US$0.64
Currency markets are also setting the tone:
- The Australian dollar was quoted around 64.1 US cents on 23 November, close to its recent lows for 2025. [22]
- Around Friday’s ASX close, it was trading closer to US$0.644–0.645, broadly flat on the day. [23]
The AUD has been nudged around by:
- Shifting expectations for Fed vs RBA rate cuts
- Risk sentiment tied to global tech and AI stocks
- Commodity price wobble, particularly in iron ore and energy
A soft but stable currency is usually supportive for:
- Exporters and offshore earners (e.g. global healthcare, miners, tech, tourism)
- But it can keep import‑cost inflation “sticky”, which the RBA will be watching closely.
7. Monday is quiet for local data – but the rest of the week is huge
There are no major Australian macro releases scheduled for Monday, 24 November, a point reiterated by several weekly economic calendars. [24]
However, the week ahead is packed with event risk that will shape rate‑cut expectations and market direction:
- Wednesday 26 November – ABS October CPI (first “complete” Monthly CPI)
- The ABS will publish its October 2025 Consumer Price Index at 11:30am AEDT, the first full monthly CPI release under the new approach. [25]
- This is a major input for the RBA ahead of its December meeting and could significantly shift pricing for local rate cuts.
- Wednesday 26 November – RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement
- The Reserve Bank of New Zealand releases its Monetary Policy Statement and cash‑rate decision at 2pm NZT. [26]
- Several forecasters, including Westpac and Capital Economics, expect a 25bp cut, potentially the last in this easing cycle. [27]
- The NZD and NZ rates often influence AUD sentiment at the margin.
- Tuesday 25 November – US Conference Board Consumer Confidence
- Later in the week – Australian construction work, private capex & credit
- A weekly note from Westpac highlights construction work done, private capital expenditure and private‑sector credit as additional key data for Australia. [30]
In short: Monday itself is about positioning, but Wednesday is the real “data day” for both Australia and New Zealand.
8. Stock and sector stories to watch on the ASX
Beyond macro, several stock‑specific narratives are likely to drive price action at the open.
a) Mayne Pharma after the Treasurer blocks Cosette takeover
On Friday, Treasurer Jim Chalmers blocked the A$672 million takeover of Mayne Pharma by US‑based Cosette Pharmaceuticals, saying it was not in Australia’s national interest amid concerns over local manufacturing jobs. [31]
- Mayne Pharma (ASX: MYX) shares slumped about 23% before a trading halt, as investors priced out the deal premium. [32]
- Earlier scheme documents had flagged Monday, 24 November as a potential “Effective Date”, when shares would be suspended if the scheme proceeded. [33]
Now, with the deal blocked, the scheme timetable is effectively in limbo. Traders will be watching for:
- Any fresh ASX announcements outlining Mayne’s next steps
- Market reassessment of Mayne’s standalone value, including the future of its Adelaide plant [34]
b) DroneShield: governance storm after a spectacular rise
DroneShield (ASX: DRO) has turned from market darling to cautionary tale:
- The stock had surged more than 800% earlier this year but has since collapsed roughly 75% from its peak, with a brutal two‑week slide in November. [35]
- Reuters reports investors are reacting to a cluster of governance issues, including:
- Heavy insider share sales worth around A$70 million
- A misreported US contract
- The sudden resignation of the US CEO
All of that has triggered a sharp rise in short positions. [36]
Given the stock’s prior importance to small‑cap indices, DroneShield will remain a barometer of risk appetite in the most speculative parts of the market.
c) WiseTech: shareholder “strike” on pay but guidance intact
Logistics software group WiseTech Global (ASX: WTC) delivered one of the week’s most talked‑about AGMs:
- Around 49% of shareholders voted against the remuneration report, giving the company its first formal “strike” on pay amid ongoing ASIC investigations into founder Richard White and several executives. [37]
- Despite governance concerns, WiseTech used the meeting to reaffirm guidance, targeting FY26 revenue up to about $1.44 billion and operating profit of $550–585 million. [38]
- The share price actually rose around 2–3% on the day, reflecting relief that the underlying business outlook remains robust. [39]
On Monday, investors will judge whether WiseTech can continue to defy the broader tech sell‑off or whether governance worries eventually weigh more heavily.
d) Dividends and ex‑dates: Infomedia, Aristocrat and more
According to SmallCaps’ upcoming dividends list, several stocks go ex‑dividend with a trade date of 24 November 2025, including: [40]
- Infomedia (ASX: IFM) – interim dividend
- EZZ Life Science Holdings (ASX: EZZ) – final dividend
- Aristocrat Leisure (ASX: ALL) – final dividend
- Embark Early Education (ASX: EVO), Elders (ASX: ELD) and a handful of others
These ex‑dates can knock a few points off the index mechanically even if underlying sentiment is improving, so short‑term traders will factor that into their opening calls.
e) Trading halts and capital raisings: VHM, Black Dragon Gold, G11 and others
Several smaller names are in – or coming out of – trading halts tied to capital raisings or corporate actions:
- Black Dragon Gold (ASX: BDG) requested a halt on 20 November pending a capital‑raising announcement, with the halt set to end no later than the start of normal trading on Monday, 24 November. [41]
- VHM Limited (ASX: VHM) also entered a trading halt for an equity raising, with the halt due to end on the release of the outcome or by 24 November. [42]
- G11 Resources (ASX: G11) has been in a similar halt, again guided to end by the commencement of trading on Monday unless an earlier announcement lands. [43]
On top of that:
- Cash Converters (ASX: CCV) has previously indicated that new shares under its entitlement offer are scheduled to be issued on Monday, 24 November, which may affect liquidity and free float. [44]
These kinds of events can produce sharp stock‑specific moves at the open, even if they don’t move the index very far.
9. Big picture for Monday: what to watch in the first hour
Putting it all together, here’s how Monday’s session may shape up:
- Direction at the open
- SPI futures suggest a positive start, likely around 1% higher, tracking Wall Street’s Friday rally and lower US yields. [45]
- Sectors likely to lead
- Risk gauges
- Corporate headlines
- Any overnight ASX announcements from Mayne Pharma, capital‑raising issuers or AGM‑season laggards could quickly reshape early trading. [51]
- Macro narrative
- With no big data on Monday, the focus will be on positioning ahead of Wednesday’s CPI and RBNZ, and on any fresh headlines out of the US related to the Fed or the government shutdown’s aftermath. [52]
If futures are right, Monday could mark the start of a short‑term rebound after a torrid November. But with AI valuations under scrutiny, geopolitical and shutdown risks still in the background, and crucial inflation data only days away, volatility is unlikely to disappear.
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