BigBear.ai (BBAI) Stock Today: Defense AI Darling Rebounds Toward $5.90 as Wall Street Weighs Growth vs. Risk

Date: November 24, 2025 | Ticker: NYSE:BBAI

BigBear.ai (BBAI) is back on the move. As of mid‑afternoon on Monday, November 24, BBAI is trading around $5.90, up roughly 9% on the day, after opening near $5.55 and touching an intraday range of about $5.42 to $5.92. The bounce comes after a stretch of volatile selling pressure that followed the company’s Q3 2025 earnings, a blockbuster generative‑AI acquisition, and a fresh aerospace megaproject announcement.

Below is a detailed breakdown of how BBAI stock is trading today, what’s driving sentiment, and the key catalysts and risks investors are watching next.

Key Takeaways on BBAI Stock Today

Price action: BBAI trades near $5.90, up around 9% intraday, recovering part of last week’s slide.
Volatility remains extreme: The stock has swung between roughly $2.02 and $10.36 over the past 12 months and delivered a 1‑year return estimated at +120% to +150%, even as the last month shows a pullback of about –18% to –24%. TS2 Tech
Fundamentals are mixed: Q3 2025 revenue fell 20% year over year to $33.1 million, but BigBear.ai reported $2.5 million in net income and maintained 2025 revenue guidance of $125–$140 million. ^[1]
Strategic deals are piling up: The company has a $250 million deal to acquire Ask Sage, a secure generative‑AI platform for defense and national security, and a new MOU for Pahang Aerospace City, billed as Southeast Asia’s first AI‑driven aerospace hub. ^[2]
Wall Street is cautious: Consensus ratings currently cluster around “Hold”, with an average 12‑month price target in the mid‑$6 range, implying mid‑teens to ~20% upside from recent prices. ^[3]
Risks are real: Accounting restatements, securities class‑action lawsuits and heavy dependence on government contracts continue to cloud the story. ^[4]

BBAI Stock Price Today: Volatile Rebound After a Rough Week

Today’s rally follows several choppy sessions. Recent trading data show BBAI bouncing between about $5.03 and $5.67 on Friday, with the stock closing around $5.44 before the weekend. ^[5]

Zooming out:

52‑week range: Roughly $2.02 – $10.36.
Market cap: Around $2.3–$2.4 billion at recent prices. TS2 Tech+1
Beta & volume: BBAI trades with elevated beta and high average volume, reinforcing its reputation as a high‑volatility AI small‑cap.

A technical report published early this morning by Stock Traders Daily characterizes current sentiment as “weak” in the near and mid‑term, but “strong” over a 20+ day horizon, with an active trading range framed between the mid‑$5s and mid‑$6s. ^[6] That aligns with what traders are seeing intraday: sharp swings but a tentative attempt to stabilize above last week’s lows.

Q3 2025 Earnings: Profit on Paper, Pressure in the P&L

On November 10, 2025, BigBear.ai released Q3 2025 results and surprised the market with a rare GAAP profit — despite falling revenue. ^[7]

Key numbers from the quarter:

Revenue: $33.1 million, down 20% year over year from $41.5 million, largely due to lower volume on certain U.S. Army programs. ^[8]
Gross margin: 22.4%, versus 25.9% in the year‑ago quarter. ^[9]
Net income: $2.5 million, compared with a $15.1 million net loss in Q3 2024 — helped significantly by non‑cash changes in derivative liabilities tied to convertible notes and warrants. ^[10]
Adjusted EBITDA: –$9.4 million, versus +$0.9 million a year earlier, reflecting lower margins and higher SG&A spending. ^[11]
Cash & backlog: Cash balance of about $456.6 million and backlog of roughly $376 million as of September 30, 2025. ^[12]

Management reaffirmed full‑year 2025 revenue guidance of $125–$140 million, even after previously cutting expectations from a much higher range due to uncertainty around government contracts. ^[13] That mix — shrinking revenue but solid liquidity and backlog — is a big reason BBAI has become such a polarizing AI name.

Ask Sage Acquisition: Big Bet on Secure Generative AI

The biggest strategic headline from Q3 was BigBear.ai’s definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage, a rapidly growing generative‑AI platform built specifically for defense, national security and other highly regulated sectors. ^[14]

According to the company:

Deal value: Approximately $250 million, subject to customary adjustments. ^[15]
Revenue contribution: Ask Sage is expected to generate about $25 million in annual recurring revenue (ARR) in 2025, roughly 6x its 2024 ARR. ^[16]
Customer footprint: More than 100,000 users across 16,000 government teams and hundreds of commercial organizations already use the platform. ^[17]
Closing timeline: Late Q4 2025 or early Q1 2026, subject to approvals; the company does not expect a material impact on 2025 financials. ^[18]

CEO Kevin McAleenan has pitched the acquisition as a way to create a secure, integrated AI platform that pulls BigBear.ai’s software, data and services into a single environment for mission‑critical customers. ^[19] Bulls see this as the missing piece that could eventually make BBAI a smaller rival to Palantir; skeptics worry about integration risk and the price tag relative to current revenue.

New Aerospace & Defense Deals: Expanding the Global Footprint

Beyond earnings, BigBear.ai has been busy signing new contracts and partnerships across defense, border security, and critical infrastructure.

Pahang Aerospace City: Southeast Asia’s AI‑Driven Hub

On November 20, 2025, the company announced a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Pahang Aerospace City Development Berhad (PAC), Easy Lease and Vigilix Technology Investment to accelerate development of Pahang Aerospace City, described as Southeast Asia’s first AI‑driven aerospace hub. ^[20]

Highlights from the MOU:

Focus on AI‑driven border operations, security and predictive analytics across the aerospace city ecosystem. ^[21]
Project aims to support air, land and sea transit, with ambitions to host an international spaceport and attract significant domestic and foreign investment into Malaysia’s aerospace sector. ^[22]

The market’s reaction has been mixed. A November 21 analysis noted that BBAI stock sold off despite the Pahang MOU, as traders used the pop to lock in profits and refocused on valuation and legal risks. TS2 Tech

Defense AI Contracts and Collaborations

BigBear.ai’s core remains defense and national security, and recent deals underscore that focus:

CDAO / VANE contract (Feb 2025): The U.S. Department of Defense Chief Digital and Artificial Intelligence Office awarded BigBear.ai a contract to advance its Virtual Anticipation Network (VANE), which uses custom AI models to analyze foreign media and identify trends tied to potential adversaries. ^[23]
$13.2 million DoD force‑management contract (Mar 2025): The company secured a 3.5‑year, $13.2 million sole‑source contract to modernize a critical force‑management platform supporting the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff’s J‑35 directorate. ^[24]
GSA OASIS+ IDIQ (Dec 2024): BigBear.ai won a slot on the GSA’s OASIS+ government‑wide contract vehicle, giving it access to an open‑ended, 10‑year ordering platform with no maximum dollar ceiling across management, technical, intelligence and logistics domains. ^[25]
DEFCON AI partnership (Jul 2025): A strategic collaboration with DEFCON AI aims to co‑develop modeling, simulation and data‑integration tools for contested logistics and joint force readiness, from the U.S. Southwest border to the Indo‑Pacific theater. ^[26]

These deals help explain why the company’s backlog remains robust even as short‑term revenue has dipped. They also reinforce BigBear.ai’s positioning around “mission‑ready AI” for defense, border security and critical infrastructure. ^[27]

Why Wall Street Is Still Cautious on BBAI

Despite the parade of contracts and partnerships, analysts are far from unanimous cheerleaders.

Valuation and Ratings

MarketBeat data show a consensus “Hold” rating on BBAI, with an average 12‑month price target around $6.33, implying roughly mid‑teens upside from recent prices. ^[28]
TipRanks, which tracks a partially overlapping analyst set, pegs the average target closer to $6.50–$7.00, suggesting about 18–21% upside, but also emphasizes how volatile and sentiment‑driven the stock has been. ^[29]
Zacks has highlighted a double‑digit price‑to‑sales ratio (around 11x), which, while below some AI peers, remains rich versus the broader market and leaves little margin for execution missteps. ^[30]

Recent commentary from several high‑profile investors has been notably mixed. Some TipRanks‑featured analysts argue that BigBear.ai’s “Palantir moment isn’t near” and warn investors not to “get burned” by chasing AI hype without regard to fundamentals. ^[31]

Legal and Governance Overhang

Multiple law firms — including Rosen Law Firm, Bleichmar Fonti & Auld, Levi & Korsinsky and others — have filed or announced securities class‑action suits on behalf of investors who bought BBAI shares between March 31, 2022 and March 25, 2025. ^[32]

The complaints generally allege that BigBear.ai:

Misstated or failed to properly account for convertible debt and related derivative features. ^[33]
Made misleading statements about its financial controls and outlook. ^[34]

These allegations have not been proven in court, but they add a governance risk premium to the stock and help explain why some institutional investors remain cautious.

Accounting Restatement & Guidance Cut

Earlier in 2025, BigBear.ai announced it would restate several years of financial statements due to the way it accounted for convertible notes maturing in 2026. Revenue and gross margin were not expected to change, but projected 2024 pretax loss widened significantly. The stock dropped roughly 16% in a single session on the news. ^[35]

Later, the company reduced its 2025 revenue guidance to $125–$140 million from a previously higher range, citing uncertainty around government contract timing, particularly with the U.S. Army. Shares fell about 25% in response. ^[36]

Together, these episodes contribute to what one recent analysis called a “show‑me” mandate for BigBear.ai: investors want sustained, cleaner execution before rewarding the stock with higher multiples. TS2 Tech+1

Technical Picture: High‑Beta AI Name with “Prove It” Setup

Technical and quantitative services continue to flag BBAI as a high‑risk, high‑reward trade:

StockInvest.us labeled the name a short‑term “sell candidate” starting in mid‑November after a steep pullback, noting a volatile range between about $5.03 and $5.67 in recent sessions. ^[37]
Stock Traders Daily’s AI‑driven models describe weak near‑ and mid‑term signals but a strong long‑term profile, framing support and resistance levels in the mid‑$5s to high‑$6s and highlighting an asymmetric risk/reward setup for active traders. ^[38]

For long‑only investors, the key question is less about intraday levels and more about whether BigBear.ai can translate its contract wins and acquisitions into durable, profitable growth — something it has yet to demonstrate on a consistent basis.

Upcoming Catalysts for BBAI Stock

Investors tracking BigBear.ai over the next few weeks will likely focus on several near‑term events:

Special Meeting of Stockholders – December 1, 2025
BigBear.ai’s investor relations site lists a special meeting of stockholders scheduled for December 1. ^[39] Any votes related to capital structure, management incentives or the Ask Sage acquisition could be closely scrutinized.
Regulatory Approval and Closing of Ask Sage
Progress toward closing the Ask Sage deal — and early integration updates — will be key to justifying the acquisition and its growth assumptions. ^[40]
New Contract Awards
Follow‑on work tied to the CDAO VANE project, Pahang Aerospace City, airport biometrics deployments and GSA OASIS+ task orders could materially influence backlog and sentiment. ^[41]
Margin and Cash‑Burn Trends
With Q3 showing negative adjusted EBITDA despite a GAAP profit, many analysts want to see improved gross margins and lower cash burn in upcoming quarters, not just non‑cash accounting gains. ^[42]
Developments in Litigation and Insider Activity
Any updates on the securities lawsuits, as well as patterns of insider buying or selling, could move the stock quickly in either direction. TS2 Tech+2The Rosen Law Firm+2

Final Thoughts: High‑Conviction Story, High Volatility Stock

BigBear.ai sits at the intersection of several powerful themes — defense AI, secure generative models, border security and critical infrastructure modernization. The company’s strong cash position, sizeable backlog, and growing roster of defense and aerospace partnerships give it a compelling long‑term narrative. ^[43]

At the same time, shrinking near‑term revenue, negative adjusted profitability, accounting restatements, ongoing litigation and elevated valuation multiples help explain why Wall Street’s verdict is still a cautious “Hold”, not a unanimous “Buy,” even after a 1‑year run that has more than doubled the stock. ^[44]

For traders, BBAI remains a high‑beta AI vehicle where timing, risk management and position sizing matter as much as the underlying story. For longer‑term investors, the next chapters — especially the Ask Sage integration and conversion of marquee deals into sustainable margins — will likely determine whether today’s $5–$6 range is a launchpad or a ceiling.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment or trading advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.

Can Big Bear AI Become The Next Palantir?! 🤔