BigBear.ai (NYSE:BBAI) moves on Q3 results and a $250M Ask Sage acquisition. Here’s what changed today, Nov 12, 2025, and what to watch next.
- Shares active today. BBAI appeared on Nasdaq’s pre-market most‑active list, trading around the mid‑$6s before the open. [1]
- Analyst chatter today. TipRanks’ AI Analyst trimmed a near‑term price target to $5.50 (Neutral), while broader coverage still shows a “Moderate/Strong Buy” lean with average targets around $6.3–$7.0 depending on the source. [2]
- Context for the move. Momentum follows Monday’s Q3 release and definitive agreement to acquire Ask Sage for $250M. [3]
Why BBAI is moving today
Pre‑market activity. BigBear.ai was one of Nasdaq’s most‑active tickers this morning, changing hands heavily around $6.40 pre‑market, a continuation of Tuesday’s post‑earnings surge. Intraday levels are volatile, as shown above. [4]
Fresh analyst signals. A TipRanks AI-generated note this morning cut the price target to $5.50 and set a Neutral stance, citing mixed fundamentals despite the strategic logic of the Ask Sage deal. At the same time, aggregated Street views still indicate ~$6–$7 average targets and a Moderate/Strong Buy tilt, underscoring a split between momentum and fundamentals. [5]
The big catalyst: a $250M deal for Ask Sage
BigBear.ai signed a definitive agreement to buy Ask Sage, a secure generative‑AI platform used broadly across defense and other regulated markets. The headline price is $250 million: $140M in cash plus, at BigBear.ai’s option, either $110M more in cash or shares (with share counts tied to a 20‑day VWAP collar). An escrow of $4M covers post‑closing adjustments; the deal carries customary HSR and shareholder conditions and an outside date of Mar 10, 2026. Closing is expected late Q4 2025/early Q1 2026. [6]
Why it matters: Ask Sage brings ~$25M non‑GAAP ARR in 2025 and an installed base of 100k+ users across 16k government teams, potentially accelerating BigBear.ai’s push into mission‑ready, secure GenAI for national security customers. Management emphasized a stronger federal demand backdrop into 2026. [7]
Earnings snapshot (Q3 2025)
- Revenue:$33.1M (‑20% y/y), above internal/Street expectations cited in coverage. [8]
- Profitability:GAAP net income $2.5M; diluted loss per share $(0.03) (basic EPS +$0.01, reflecting derivative accounting effects). Adjusted EBITDA $(9.4)M. [9]
- Cash & backlog:Record cash $456.6M; backlog $376M at quarter‑end. [10]
- Outlook:FY25 revenue $125M–$140M; management doesn’t expect Ask Sage to materially affect FY25 totals given timing. [11]
How the Street is framing it
- Short‑term caution, longer‑term optionality. TipRanks’ AI Analyst today flagged weaker cash flow and margin pressure versus the promise of integrating Ask Sage; stance Neutral with $5.50 target. [12]
- Supportive voices remain. A Benzinga recap of HC Wainwright’s note (yesterday) reiterated Buy with an $8 target, pointing to federal opportunities and M&A as catalysts through 2026. [13]
- Consensus picture. Depending on the aggregator, average targets cluster ~$6.3–$7.0, with a small analyst set and “Moderate/Strong Buy” skew. Always check the timestamp and methodology across sites. [14]
What to watch next
- Deal closing mechanics. Watch the HSR clock and closing election (cash vs. stock) under the 8‑K’s VWAP‑based share formulas; the outside date is Mar 10, 2026. [15]
- Federal contract flow. Management highlighted border‑security and defense budgets as near‑term demand drivers; contract timing will dictate revenue cadence. [16]
- Margins vs. growth. Q3 shows pressure (22.4% gross margin; negative adj. EBITDA). Investors will look for acquisition synergies and operating leverage in 2026. [17]
- Stock liquidity/volatility. BBAI’s 52‑week range $1.66–$10.33 underscores trading risk; days like today can see sharp swings. [18]
Company background (for new readers)
BigBear.ai (NYSE: BBAI) provides AI‑powered decision intelligence to defense, national security and critical‑infrastructure customers. The company has emphasized secure, production‑ready AI at the edge and in classified environments—positioning that underpins the rationale for acquiring Ask Sage. [19]
Sources & verification (Nov 12, 2025)
- Pre‑market activity today: Nasdaq. [20]
- Q3 press release & outlook: Business Wire (company). [21]
- Deal terms & conditions: SEC Form 8‑K filed Nov 10, 2025. [22]
- Analyst updates today/consensus snapshots: TipRanks pages; StockAnalysis aggregator. [23]
- Context on post‑earnings move: Barron’s recap. [24]
Editor’s note: This article focuses on today’s (Nov 12, 2025) developments and how they connect to BigBear.ai’s Q3 print and Ask Sage acquisition. It is informational and not investment advice.
References
1. www.nasdaq.com, 2. www.tipranks.com, 3. www.businesswire.com, 4. www.nasdaq.com, 5. www.tipranks.com, 6. www.sec.gov, 7. www.businesswire.com, 8. www.businesswire.com, 9. www.businesswire.com, 10. www.businesswire.com, 11. www.businesswire.com, 12. www.tipranks.com, 13. www.benzinga.com, 14. www.tipranks.com, 15. www.sec.gov, 16. www.businesswire.com, 17. www.businesswire.com, 18. www.reuters.com, 19. ir.bigbear.ai, 20. www.nasdaq.com, 21. www.businesswire.com, 22. www.sec.gov, 23. www.tipranks.com, 24. www.barrons.com
