Today: 20 October 2025
Subscribe
Biotech Bombshell: MoonLake (MLTX) Shares Tumble 85% on Trial News – Is a $108 Price Target Still Real?
 ·  ·  ·  ·  · 

Biotech Bombshell: MoonLake (MLTX) Shares Tumble 85% on Trial News – Is a $108 Price Target Still Real?

by
29 September 2025
  • Stock Shock: On Monday Sep 29, 2025, MLTX plunged ~85% pre-market after releasing mixed Phase 3 trial results (VELA program) [1] [2]. It fell from ~$62 (near its 52-week high) to under $8, collapsing the market cap from ~$3.9B to roughly ~$0.5B [3] [4].
  • Friday Rally: Just days earlier (Sep 26), MLTX had surged ~10–10.5% to $62.33 on takeover buzz and clinical catalysts [5]. Reuters/FT reports of Merck interest (>$3B buyout talks) and eagerly-anticipated HS trial data had driven optimism [6] [7].
  • Financials: MoonLake ended Q2 2025 with ~$425M in cash (plus a $500M Hercules credit line) [8] [9]. R&D expenses rose to $49.8M in Q2 (versus $36.5M prior quarter), yielding a net loss of $56.1M (≈$0.87/share) [10] [11]. The company’s cash runway is extended into 2028 by the Hercules deal [12] [13].
  • Pipeline – HS & Beyond: MoonLake’s lead drug, sonelokimab (an IL-17A/F nanobody), is in late-stage development for inflammatory skin/joint diseases. Ongoing trials include Phase 3 VELA-Teen (adolescent HS), Phase 3 IZAR (psoriatic arthritis), Phase 2 LEDA (palmoplantar pustulosis), and Phase 2 S-OLARIS (axial spondyloarthritis) [14] [15]. Key catalysts are due: 52‑week VELA follow-up, LEDA topline (expected Q4’25), S-OLARIS (Q1’26), VELA-Teen and IZAR (H1’26) [16] [17].
  • VELA HS Trial Results: In combined VELA-1/2 data, primary endpoint significance was mixed. VELA-1 met HiSCR75 (17-point improvement over placebo, p<0.001) [18], but VELA-2 showed only a 9-point gap (p=0.053) – a “near-miss” caused by an unusually strong placebo response [19] [20]. Using the treatment-policy analysis, sonelokimab responses were 35–36% vs 18–26% for placebo (statistically significant) [21]. No new safety signals were seen (no suicidality issues) [22]. MoonLake said it will “seek to confirm the path to registration in HS” with regulators as VELA continues to 52 weeks [23].
  • Analyst Ratings: Before the news, most analysts were bullish. Wedbush “Outperform” (PT $80) and Guggenheim “Buy” ($80) were confident in SLK and the HS readout [24] [25]. Clear Street maintained a Buy with a $108 target [26]. After the trial disappointment, firms turned cautious: Stifel cut MLTX to Hold (PT $13 from $77) and slashed its success probability [27], calling results “significantly worse than expected”. RBC Capital dropped to “Sector Perform” ($10 from $67), calling the outcome a “near-miss” and an “uncompetitive” effect size [28].
  • M&A Rumors: MoonLake’s takeover chatter has been rampant. In June 2025 Reuters/FT reported that Merck had held talks for a >$3B acquisition [29]. On Sep 10, social-media buzz (StockTwits) suggested renewed Merck interest [30]. These rumors repeatedly drove MLTX spikes (Finimize noted a 16% premarket jump on Merck speculation in June [31]). However, analysts now warn the mixed VELA data may dampen acquisition appetite [32] [33].
  • Strategic Position: The company raised significant non-dilutive funding (Hercules $500M) to bolster its balance sheet [34]. MoonLake’s CEO hailed Q2 as “another strong quarter,” citing narrowed HS readout timing and encouraging PPP data that “derisks” development [35]. The CFO emphasized MoonLake’s “robust financial position” from the Hercules deal, allowing it to fund a 2027 launch without dilution [36]. MoonLake also formed a technology partnership with Komodo Health [37] to enhance R&D targeting.
  • Market Context & Competition: HS affects ~2% of people (~2M Americans) and is a highly unmet condition; the market is projected at ~$15 billion by 2035 [38]. Only AbbVie’s Humira is approved for HS today – but new entrants loom. Notably, UCB’s IL-17 inhibitor bimekizumab (BIMZELX) received FDA approval for HS in late 2024 [39], becoming the first IL-17A/F drug on the market. MoonLake’s SLK will compete with IL-17 agents like bimekizumab and Novartis’s secukinumab if they enter HS. (In PsA, SLK will face many established biologics.) The broader biotech sector is volatile: MLTX briefly outperformed peers on its unique catalysts [40], but investor confidence now hinges on binary events (HS data, M&A news) [41] [42].
  • Investor Outlook: Analysts’ 12-month price targets averaged ~$79 (range $65–$108) [43] before the latest news – implying ~28% upside from pre-crash levels. With VELA-2 missing significance, sentiment has split. Bulls note that SLK still showed efficacy, broader pipeline catalysts are upcoming, and cash is ample. Bears point to tougher comparisons (UCB’s new HS drug, high hurdle for FDA approval) and question SLK’s durability. Retail chatter on platforms (StockTwits sentiment spiked bullish even after the crash [44]) suggests polarized views. In the near term, key factors will be FDA feedback on VELA data, how MoonLake addresses the second trial’s miss, and finalizing topline 52-week VELA outcomes. Longer term, success in HS and PsA could transform MLTX – but failure risks irreversible loss in value.

Sources: Company filings and press releases [45] [46]; financial media (Reuters, Investing.com, Stocktwits, Seeking Alpha) [47] [48] [49]; market data services [50] [51]. All figures and quotes are from cited reports.

Biogen Stock Analysis – How to Analyze Biotech Stocks
Watch this video on YouTube.

References

1. seekingalpha.com, 2. www.stocktitan.net, 3. www.investing.com, 4. seekingalpha.com, 5. www.ainvest.com, 6. www.ainvest.com, 7. www.reuters.com, 8. www.globenewswire.com, 9. www.ainvest.com, 10. www.globenewswire.com, 11. www.globenewswire.com, 12. www.globenewswire.com, 13. www.ainvest.com, 14. www.stocktitan.net, 15. www.globenewswire.com, 16. www.globenewswire.com, 17. www.stocktitan.net, 18. www.stocktitan.net, 19. www.stocktitan.net, 20. www.stocktitan.net, 21. www.stocktitan.net, 22. www.stocktitan.net, 23. www.stocktitan.net, 24. www.investing.com, 25. www.investing.com, 26. www.investing.com, 27. stocktwits.com, 28. stocktwits.com, 29. www.reuters.com, 30. www.ainvest.com, 31. finimize.com, 32. www.investing.com, 33. www.investing.com, 34. www.ainvest.com, 35. www.globenewswire.com, 36. www.globenewswire.com, 37. www.investing.com, 38. www.globenewswire.com, 39. www.ucb.com, 40. www.ainvest.com, 41. www.ainvest.com, 42. www.ainvest.com, 43. www.tipranks.com, 44. stocktwits.com, 45. www.globenewswire.com, 46. www.stocktitan.net, 47. www.reuters.com, 48. stocktwits.com, 49. www.investing.com, 50. www.stocktitan.net, 51. www.tipranks.com

Tags:

Marcin Frąckiewicz Latest posts

CEO of TS2 Space and founder of TS2.tech. Expert in satellites, telecommunications, and emerging technologies, covering trends in space, AI, and connectivity.

  1. Texas Instruments (TXN) Stock Price Today Soars Amid Dividend Hike & AI Boom: Rally Ahead or More Pain? 🎯
  2. CrowdStrike Stock Climbs on AI Cybersecurity Momentum and Analyst Upgrades – What’s Next for CRWD?
  3. Palo Alto Networks Stock Near Record High – AI Boom, $25B Deal & Bold Forecasts Fuel Rally
  4. ServiceNow Stock Shines Amid AI Push and Bold Analyst Targets Ahead of Q3 Results

Related Articles

Nebius (NBIS) Stock Rockets on $17B Microsoft AI Deal – Explosive Growth & Outlook Revealed
Previous Story

Nebius (NBIS) Stock Rockets on $17B Microsoft AI Deal – Explosive Growth & Outlook Revealed

Binance Drops Bombshell: Sui-Backed TRUTH Token to Launch on Exclusive Alpha Platform
Next Story

Binance Drops Bombshell: Sui-Backed TRUTH Token to Launch on Exclusive Alpha Platform

Stock Market Today

  • Thai SET Ends Two-Day Rally as Stocks Retreat; Eyes on Monday
    October 19, 2025, 10:50 PM EDT. Thai stocks retreated on Friday, snapping a two-session gain as the SET closed at 1,274.61, down 16.85 points (-1.30%). The index traded 1,274.10-1,289.73 with volume of 8.322 billion shares and broad sector losses across food, finance, industrials, property, resources and technology. Actives such as Banpu and Asset World fell about 1.8%, while energy stocks led declines (Energy Absolute -4.73%, PTT Exploration -2.33%, PTT Global Chemical -5.65%). The move comes as Wall Street posted gains, with the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 rising after easing U.S.-China trade concerns and a more constructive stance from President Trump. Crude rose as Trump signaled warmer ties with China, with WTI near $57.66. Traders expect the market to test the 1,275 level again on Monday.
  • Carrefour Valuation in Focus After 10% Gain: Key Drivers and Risks
    October 19, 2025, 10:48 PM EDT. Carrefour (ENXTPA:CA) has risen about 10% in the past month as investors weigh its improving earnings against a still-mixed longer-term picture. The shares trade with a narrative-driven fair value of €13.98, modestly above the last close of €13.36, implying potential upside if earnings momentum sustains. A digital transformation push and stronger e-commerce (GMV up 18%) plus private label expansion could support margin expansion, though headwinds from slower French consumption and currency swings in Brazil loom. The stock's 1-year TSR remains slightly negative (~-4%), suggesting the market has not fully priced in growth potential. Investors should balance valuation with growth drivers and key risks as Carrefour navigates competitive markets in France, Spain, and Brazil.
  • FSZ.DB.C:CA Debentures - AI-Generated Signals and Trading Plans for Fiera Capital 7.75% Senior Subordinated Notes
    October 19, 2025, 10:46 PM EDT. On October 19, 2025, AI-generated signals for Fiera Capital Corporation 7.75% senior subordinated unsecured debentures (FSZ.DB.C:CA) outline concrete trading plans. The Long setup suggests buying near 104.44 with a target of 105.45 and a stop at 103.92. The Short setup proposes selling near 105.45 with a target around 104.44 and a stop at 105.98. The accompanying ratings are neutral across Near, Mid, and Long terms. Note that AI-generated signals are one input among risk controls, and a timestamp check is advised. A chart is provided for FSZ.DB.C:CA to help gauge price action and risk management.
  • Midwest IPO Allotment: How to Check Share Allotment on NSE & BSE
    October 19, 2025, 10:12 PM EDT. Midwest's IPO has closed bidding, and investors are eager to view allotment details on the NSE and BSE. Current market chatter places a grey market premium (GMP) of about ₹110-₹145 per share. The issue price band is ₹1014-₹1065, and at the upper band, listing could bring gains of around ₹1,210 per share on the NSE, a roughly 13.1% upside. To check allotment, visit the official NSE or BSE portals or your broker's platform and search for 'Midwest IPO allotment' using your application number, reference number, or PAN. Allotment status is typically updated a day or two after the bid closes, and refunds (if any) and listing details follow thereafter.
  • L3Harris Secures $2.26B AEW&C Contract to Supply Global 6500 Aircraft to South Korea
    October 19, 2025, 10:06 PM EDT. L3Harris Technologies (LHX) has secured a multi-billion-dollar contract to supply modified Bombardier Global 6500 airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) aircraft to the Republic of Korea Air Force. The deal, valued at more than $2.26 billion, is a milestone for cross-border defense collaboration with Bombardier, Israel Aerospace Industries' ELTA Systems, and Korean Air. The aircraft are built for faster speeds, longer endurance, and higher altitude operations, and come with robust radar and an integrated communications suite to ensure interoperability with the U.S., NATO, and coalition forces. The program emphasizes strong local industry involvement, with Korean firms leading operations and maintenance, boosting defense autonomy. The arrangement provides near-term revenue visibility for LHX and supports growth in advanced airborne systems.
Go toTop