Bitcoin Price Today Near $91K: Tom Lee Softens $200K Forecast as Peter Brandt Delays Target to 2029

Published: November 27, 2025

Bitcoin is back above $90,000 ahead of Thanksgiving in the U.S., reigniting talk of a year‑end “Santa rally” even as the market’s most famous bulls quietly dial down their most explosive targets. On one side, long‑time permabull Tom Lee is trimming his headline forecasts while still arguing that six‑figure Bitcoin is in play. On the other, veteran chartist Peter Brandt is pushing his $200,000 target all the way out to 2029 – and warning that the current “reset” may have much further to run. ^[1]

At the same time, a fresh analysis from banking platform OneSafe leans into the idea of an “uncertain future” for Bitcoin, urging investors to treat bold predictions with skepticism and to focus instead on macro risks, regulation and positioning. ^[2]

Below is a deep dive into where Bitcoin stands today, November 27, 2025, and how these competing forecasts shape the market narrative going into year‑end and the next halving‑cycle.

Key points

Bitcoin price today: BTC trades around $91,000–$92,000, up roughly 1–5% over the last 24 hours depending on the index, after reclaiming the $90,000 level on Wednesday. ^[3]
Tom Lee’s pivot: After months of calling for $200K–$250K Bitcoin by the end of 2025, Lee has softened his stance, now talking about a $100K–$200K range and describing the $250K call as a “maybe.” ^[4]
Peter Brandt’s timeline: Brandt, who previously floated a $200K target in the next bull cycle, now says Bitcoin is unlikely to reach that level before Q3 2029, even while remaining long‑term bullish. ^[5]
OneSafe’s warning: Two recent OneSafe articles stress that most precise price calls fail, highlight regulatory and geopolitical risks, and frame the current environment as one where caution and diversification matter more than hero‑level targets. ^[6]
Institutional and corporate demand persists: Whale addresses have risen during the latest dip, Japanese firm Metaplanet has just borrowed $130 million to buy more Bitcoin, and SpaceX moved 1.1K BTC (≈$105 million) to Coinbase Prime today – all signs that big players are still in the game. ^[7]

Bitcoin price today: Santa‑rally hopes return above $90,000

As of this afternoon, Bitcoin is trading around $91,000–$91,500, with 24‑hour volume in the $20 billion range, according to major market trackers such as CoinDesk and CoinMarketCap. ^[8]

A CoinDesk Markets update describes Bitcoin leading a broad crypto recovery today, gaining roughly 5.4% in 24 hours and climbing to about $91,700, outpacing most large‑cap tokens as traders talk up the possibility of a classic year‑end “Santa rally.” ^[9]

The Economic Times notes that Bitcoin has surged roughly 450% over the last three years and this week broke back above a key resistance near $90,000, hitting intraday highs close to $92,000. ^[10] A separate analysis from Protos, cited in that report, shows that Thanksgiving‑weekend returns have historically been mixed – good years and bad years roughly split down the middle – underlining just how path‑dependent short‑term performance can be. ^[11]

Volatility, meanwhile, appears to be cooling after a turbulent November. Derivatives data reported by CoinDesk shows implied volatility retracing last week’s spike, while options traders are positioning in complex call structures targeting ranges between $100,000 and $118,000, suggesting optimism about further upside but also a willingness to cap risk. ^[12]

Tom Lee’s $200K call: from January moonshot to 2025 “range”

The November 21 Bloomberg feature: $200K by January’s end

In a Bloomberg Businessweek profile published November 21, Fundstrat co‑founder Tom Lee was described – once again – as the market’s archetypal “permabull.” The piece highlighted his history of bold calls, including past forecasts for the S&P 500 to more than double by 2030 and for Bitcoin to reach $3 million sometime around that date. ^[13]

Crucially for the current narrative, Bloomberg reported that Lee still saw a path for Bitcoin to trade as high as $200,000 by the end of January, leaning on his long‑standing view that retail flow, ETF demand and looser financial conditions could turbocharge the final leg of this cycle. ^[14]

That story crystallised the ultra‑bullish camp: at the time, Bitcoin had just crashed from October’s all‑time high near $126,000 to the mid‑$80Ks, but Lee was holding the line on aggressive year‑end targets. ^[15]

A quieter reset: from $250K to “above $100K”

Over the last week, however, Lee’s messaging has clearly shifted.

A breakdown from Bitget summarises his latest comments, noting that since early 2024 he had repeatedly argued for Bitcoin reaching $250,000 by the end of 2025, a view he was still restating as late as October. In recent remarks, though, he has scaled that back, talking instead about Bitcoin finishing the year “above $100,000” and acknowledging that the earlier $250K target looks increasingly ambitious. ^[16]
A separate analysis from AInvest says Lee now frames his 2025 forecast as a range between $100,000 and $200,000, citing persistent macroeconomic risks and regulatory uncertainty even as he remains fundamentally bullish. ^[17]
OneSafe’s new article, “Bitcoin’s Uncertain Future Demands Serious Attention,” published today, describes Lee’s $250K target as a “maybe” rather than a base case and emphasises that he now sees a breach of $100,000 as the more realistic milestone for this cycle. ^[18]

In other words: the headline optimism is still there, but the hard edges of the $200K–$250K story are being sanded down as year‑end approaches and Bitcoin trades closer to $90K than to six‑figure territory.

Peter Brandt’s warning: $200K, but not this cycle

If Lee is the face of “higher, sooner,” Peter Brandt has become the patron saint of sober patience.

Earlier this month, Brandt made headlines on Bitcoin‑focused outlets for projecting that Bitcoin could still ultimately reach $200,000 in the next bull cycle, even after a painful drawdown erased its 2025 gains. ^[19] But in a detailed interview covered by Coinpaper and syndicated by Cryptrank, he pushed back hard against the idea that this level is achievable in the near term.

In that November 21 piece, Brandt:

Rejected the narrative that Bitcoin could sprint to $200K this year or next;
Argued that such a price is more plausible only in Q3 2029, roughly four years later than optimists like Arthur Hayes, Tom Lee, Brian Armstrong and Cathie Wood have suggested;
Framed the current downturn – from a $126K high in October to lows around $86K – as a “healthy reset” that clears excess leverage and sets up the next cycle. ^[20]

Another analysis from Coingape adds a more tactical layer: Brandt sees a real risk of a deeper flush to around $58,000 before any march toward the $200K region in the following cycle. ^[21]

Interestingly, OneSafe’s November 21 article on Bitcoin predictions notes that Brandt later clarified he never specified Q3 2029 as a hard deadline, only that he believes $200K is achievable over time – a nuance that underscores just how quickly social media can turn cautious commentary into viral “target” headlines. ^[22]

OneSafe’s message: Bitcoin’s “uncertain future” and the problem with precise targets

The two recent OneSafe pieces – “Bitcoin’s Uncertain Future Demands Serious Attention” and “Bitcoin’s Future: Market Reactions, Predictions, and Regulatory Challenges” – act as a counterweight to the headline‑grabbing forecasts. ^[23]

Together, they make several key points:

Most models miss: From the once‑popular Stock‑to‑Flow model (which famously over‑promised a six‑figure Bitcoin by 2020) to stacked analyst targets, precise price models rarely survive contact with reality. ^[24]
Predictions move the market – even when they’re wrong: High‑profile calls from figures like Brandt or Lee can trigger buying or selling waves, regardless of whether the underlying analysis is robust. Once the forecast is walked back, the emotional damage to traders often remains. ^[25]
2024–2025 forecasts have become more cautious: OneSafe notes that where analysts once treated $250K as almost inevitable, many now talk about $100K+ as an aspirational but plausible ceiling for the current cycle, reflecting a clear step down in collective confidence. ^[26]
Geopolitics is now a core driver: The blog points to recent geopolitical shocks and international tensions that triggered sharp Bitcoin sell‑offs, arguing that macro headlines are now as important as on‑chain data in driving direction. ^[27]
Regulation is the wild card: Tightening rules around anti‑money‑laundering, KYC, and Bitcoin mining – plus the rise of central bank digital currencies – are flagged as structural headwinds that could cap upside or delay adoption, especially in key markets. ^[28]

Instead of fixating on a single magical number like $200,000, OneSafe encourages investors to focus on building an adaptable playbook: diversification across assets, careful position sizing, and close attention to “whale” behaviour and macro signals. ^[29]

Macro, tariffs and ETFs: why forecasts keep shifting

Part of the reason forecasts are being revised in real time is that the macro backdrop keeps spinning.

The AInvest outlook for 2025 highlights how sharply opinions diverge:

Tom Lee: now at $100K–$200K for 2025;
JPMorgan: down in the $45K region;
Mike Novogratz: at the high end, floating numbers up to $500K in bullish scenarios. ^[30]

The same report notes that a recent tariff announcement by Donald Trump sparked roughly $19 billion in crypto liquidations, a stark reminder of how quickly policy risk can ripple into leveraged markets. ^[31]

Elsewhere, structural drivers are still positive:

A Forbes piece today (paywalled, but summarised in its preview) points to a “massive” update around BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF as one catalyst behind the latest rebound from lows near $80,000 earlier this month – another sign that ETF flows remain central to this cycle’s narrative. ^[32]
In Japan, regulators are exploring allowing crypto exposure in mutual funds and implementing friendlier tax treatment, even as firms like Metaplanet ramp up Bitcoin treasuries. ^[33]

When macro, regulation and ETF flows pull in different directions, even seasoned analysts are forced to hedge their bets – which is exactly what we’re now seeing in the shift from single‑point targets to broader ranges.

On‑chain and corporate demand: whales, SpaceX and Metaplanet

The price chart only tells half the story. Under the surface, long‑term holders and corporate treasuries are still quietly repositioning.

Whale accumulation: Data aggregated by Bitget and CryptoBriefing shows that the number of Bitcoin addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC has risen during the latest market dip, suggesting large players used the pullback to add to their stacks. ^[34]
Metaplanet’s $130 million bet: In Tokyo, publicly listed Metaplanet – a former hotel operator turned Bitcoin treasury firm – has just secured a $130 million loan explicitly to buy more BTC. Its shares jumped about 7% on the news, while other Japanese Bitcoin‑heavy treasuries also rallied, outperforming the Nikkei 225. ^[35]
SpaceX wallet reshuffle: On‑chain sleuths at Arkham spotted SpaceX moving 1.1K BTC (≈$105M) to a new wallet today, routed through Coinbase Prime. CoinCentral reports that most analysts see this as routine custody management rather than a directional bet, but it underscores how much corporate Bitcoin sits off‑exchange in institutional channels. ^[36]

Add in the continued rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs and a growing ecosystem of crypto‑linked equities, and it’s clear that institutional and corporate exposure is far deeper than in previous cycles – even if price action feels shaky in the short term. ^[37]

Scenarios for 2026–2029: what would it take to hit $200,000?

Putting the various forecasts together, a few broad scenarios emerge.

1. The aggressive bull case (late 2025–2026)

This camp – which includes some research desks like Bernstein and outspoken bulls like Novogratz – imagines Bitcoin reaching $200K as early as late 2025, assuming: ^[38]

Sustained ETF inflows;
A benign or easing Federal Reserve;
No major regulatory crackdown in the U.S. or EU;
Continued corporate balance‑sheet adoption.

Given today’s price around $91K, that would still require a >100% rally in roughly 12–13 months – not impossible in Bitcoin terms, but historically associated with periods of near‑euphoria and heavy retail participation.

2. The moderated bull case (Tom Lee’s new range)

Lee’s revised $100K–$200K framework sits between outright euphoria and hard‑line skepticism. In this path, Bitcoin:

Breaks $100,000 and possibly grinds toward the mid‑six figures in 2026,
But faces enough macro and regulatory drag that $200K is better seen as an upper bound than a base scenario for the current cycle. ^[39]

3. The patient cycle case (Peter Brandt’s 2029 view)

Brandt’s outlook assumes that:

This halving cycle is already mature,
The market needs more time to digest leveraged excess and speculative manias,
And Bitcoin’s structural march higher plays out over several more years, not several more months. ^[40]

Under this scenario, $200,000 is a destination for 2028–2029, after at least one more major shake‑out – potentially toward levels like $58,000 – clears the decks.

4. The underperformance case

Finally, OneSafe and several more conservative banks flag a non‑trivial risk that Bitcoin simply fails to make new explosive highs if:

Regulation fragments liquidity across jurisdictions;
CBDCs and tokenised Treasuries soak up institutional demand;
Energy or environmental rules make mining significantly more expensive;
Or a deep global recession forces broad de‑risking. ^[41]

In that world, Bitcoin might still appreciate over time – but the dream of $200K+ becomes more distant, and volatility could compress compared with earlier cycles.

How investors can navigate conflicting Bitcoin price predictions

For traders and long‑term holders trying to make sense of all this, a few practical principles stand out:

Treat precise numbers as marketing, not destiny
- “$200,000 by January,” “$250,000 by 2025,” or “$58K then 200K” are useful thought experiments, not guarantees. Even the analysts making these calls frequently revise them, as Lee’s recent reset illustrates. ^[42]
Focus on time horizons, not headlines
- Brandt’s framing – bullish long‑term, cautious near‑term – is a reminder that your time horizon matters more than the day’s headline target. Short‑term pullbacks can coexist with long‑term optimism. ^[43]
Watch positioning and flows
- Whale accumulation, treasuries like Metaplanet, and moves from companies such as SpaceX all point to continued conviction from large players, even if retail sentiment feels shaky. ^[44]
Account for macro and regulatory risk
- Tariff shocks, election headlines, rate decisions and new rules on crypto custody or mining can move Bitcoin as much as any on‑chain metric. Build scenarios that include adverse policy surprises. ^[45]
Size risk so that being “early” doesn’t force you out
- If Bitcoin does go to $200K in 2029 instead of 2025, overly aggressive leverage or sizing could still wipe an investor out long before being “right” pays off. That’s a lesson many learned in previous cycles when bold targets arrived later – or not at all. ^[46]

Bottom line

On November 27, 2025, Bitcoin sits near $91,000, enjoying a Thanksgiving‑week bounce and renewed talk of a year‑end rally. Under the surface, though, the narrative is shifting:

Tom Lee is still bullish but no longer unflinchingly so;
Peter Brandt remains optimistic yet pushes his $200K dream out to the next cycle;
And platforms like OneSafe are urging the market to pay more attention to uncertainty, regulation and behavior than to single headline numbers. ^[47]

Whether Bitcoin reaches $200,000 in 2026, 2029 or not at all, today’s news makes one thing clear: the path from here will be shaped as much by geopolitics, regulation and institutional positioning as by any single analyst’s call.

Bitcoin price prediction 2030 🤨