Boeing (BA) Stock Jumps on CFO’s 2026 Cash‑Flow Pledge: Outlook, Risks and Price Targets as of December 2, 2025

Boeing’s BA stock is back in the spotlight after the company’s new CFO laid out a clearer recovery path – but the turnaround story still comes with serious risks.

BA stock today: a sharp bounce, but still a turnaround play

As of early afternoon on December 2, 2025, Boeing (NYSE: BA) shares are trading around $197, up roughly 6% intraday after the company’s Chief Financial Officer Jay Malave addressed investors at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference. ^[1]

That rebound comes after a volatile year:

52‑week range: roughly $129 to $243 per share. ^[2]
1‑year performance: up high‑teens percent, but
5‑year performance: still down mid‑teens versus pre‑MAX‑crisis levels, reflecting years of losses and dilution. ^[3]

BA remains a high‑beta, high‑volatility industrial: its beta is around 1.4–1.6, meaning it tends to move more than the broader market in both directions. TechStock²+1

Today’s rally is being driven by fresh guidance on jet deliveries and free cash flow for 2026, plus growing evidence that Boeing’s order book and production rates are recovering.

Key takeaways from Jay Malave’s UBS conference remarks

Multiple outlets – including Reuters, Investing.com, Bloomberg and GuruFocus – carried highlights from Malave’s first major investor presentation as CFO. ^[4]

1. 737 & 787 deliveries expected to rise in 2026

Malave told investors that Boeing expects deliveries of both its 737 and 787 programs to be higher in 2026 than in 2025, reinforcing the message that the company is moving into a more normal production phase after years of regulatory caps, supply‑chain snags and labor disruptions. ^[5]

That view aligns with independent production tracking:

In October 2025, Boeing delivered 53 jets, bringing year‑to‑date deliveries to 493 aircraft, already above the 348 delivered in all of 2024. ^[6]
Forecast International estimates November production at 45 aircraft, including 32 737 MAX and 8 787s – solid, though still below Boeing’s near‑term 737 MAX target rate. ^[7]

The Federal Aviation Administration has already agreed to allow 737 MAX production to rise from 38 to 42 aircraft per month, giving Boeing more room to ramp output as quality improves. ^[8]

2. Free cash flow: from $2 billion burn in 2025 to positive in 2026

On the financial side, Malave painted a picture of near‑term pain, medium‑term relief:

2025: Boeing still projects roughly $2 billion of negative free cash flow for the full year. ^[9]
2026: Management now expects “low single‑digit billions” of positive free cash flow, reversing that burn. ^[10]
Longer term, the long‑stated ambition of $10 billion in annual free cash flow is described as “possible,” but Malave stressed that the company is “not there yet” in terms of returning capital to shareholders. ^[11]

Independent fundamental analysis broadly matches that trajectory. A recent RoboForex deep‑dive notes that Boeing expects to:

Turn free cash flow positive in Q4 2025,
Deliver more than 700 aircraft in 2026,
Generate about $80 billion in 2026 revenue,
Earn roughly $3.50 per share and
Produce around $5.6 billion in free cash flow in 2026, if execution stays on track. ^[12]

3. Defense margins and DOJ penalty timing

Malave also highlighted the strength and improving profitability of Boeing’s defense and space segment:

The defense division is expected to reach high single‑digit operating margins, helped by large new contracts. ^[13]
A significant Department of Justice payment tied to earlier 737 MAX issues has been pushed out from 2025 into 2026, easing near‑term cash pressure but still looming over the medium term. ^[14]

Defense has indeed been a bright spot:

On November 25, the Pentagon awarded Boeing more than $7 billion in two contracts: about $4.7 billion for Apache AH‑64E attack helicopters and related equipment, and around $2.4 billion for Air Force aircraft and support. ^[15]
Separate reporting has also flagged a $4.7 billion Apache order for Poland and additional missile and training deals, underlining multi‑year defense demand. ^[16]

4. 737‑10 certification and near‑term delivery dip

The CFO reiterated that Boeing now expects certification of the 737‑10 (MAX 10) narrow‑body by the end of 2026, a key milestone because many airline orders hinge on that variant. ^[17]

He also acknowledged that November deliveries would be slightly lower due to fewer working days around the holidays, but insisted the company remains on track versus its internal plan. ^[18]

Industry reporters note that Boeing delivered about 44 jets in November, implying it will need roughly 63 deliveries in December to hit Wall Street’s Q4 forecast of 160 aircraft – its busiest month since late 2023. ^[19]

5. “Recovery in full force” – but no new narrow‑body program anytime soon

Malave described Boeing’s overall recovery as “in full force”, pointing to improving production stability, cash flow trends and order momentum. ^[20]

At the same time, he shut down speculation about a brand‑new single‑aisle jet to replace the 737 family:

Speaking at the UBS conference, Malave said market conditions, technology and Boeing’s own readiness all need to change before launching a new narrow‑body – and he believes none of those conditions are met yet. ^[21]

That confirms earlier remarks from CEO Kelly Ortberg and underscores that Boeing’s near‑ to medium‑term strategy is to squeeze more performance and efficiency from the 737 MAX, 787 and 777X families, rather than roll the dice on an expensive clean‑sheet design.

Under the hood: Boeing’s earnings, losses and balance sheet

Despite the upbeat tone today, Boeing is still loss‑making and heavily leveraged.

Q3 2025: strong revenue, big losses

In its Q3 2025 report (October 29), Boeing delivered a mixed picture: ^[22]

Revenue: about $23–24 billion, up roughly 30% year‑on‑year, driven by 160 commercial airplane deliveries, the highest quarterly total since 2018.
Net loss: about $5.3 billion, an improvement versus Q3 2024 but still deep in the red.
Loss per share: about $7.47, widened by a $4.9 billion pre‑tax charge on the 777X program, tied to another delay in certification and first deliveries now pushed to 2027.
Free cash flow: turned positive at around $240 million for the quarter, versus a nearly $2 billion cash outflow a year earlier.

Segment performance:

Commercial Airplanes revenue jumped nearly 50% year on year, but remained loss‑making because of the 777X charge. ^[23]
Defense, Space & Security and Global Services both grew double‑digits and generated positive operating profit. ^[24]

A huge order book – and a stretched balance sheet

Boeing’s backlog remains its biggest asset:

Total company backlog stands at about $636 billion, including more than 5,900 commercial aircraft. ^[25]
Aerotime and Forecast International estimate that Boeing has over 6,500 unfilled orders, with roughly 4,700–4,800 of them 737 family jets, underscoring long‑term narrow‑body demand. ^[26]

But the capital structure is fragile:

At the end of Q3 2025, Boeing’s total debt was around $53 billion, with net debt near $30–31 billion after cash and short‑term investments. ^[27]
Shareholders’ equity is negative (around –$8 billion), meaning the company is essentially financed by debt and customer advances rather than retained earnings. ^[28]
Interest expense in the first nine months of 2025 was about $2.1 billion, a major drag on cash flow. ^[29]

Rating agencies are watching closely. S&P Global recently affirmed Boeing’s BBB– credit rating (the lowest investment‑grade notch) but raised its outlook from “negative” to “stable”, citing improving production and cash‑flow prospects – while warning that leverage will remain a concern through 2027. ^[30]

Production, orders and backlog: is the recovery real?

Deliveries: higher than 2024, still below pre‑crisis ambitions

Industry data show a clear upward trend even if Boeing is still below pre‑MAX‑crisis peaks:

2025 YTD (through October): 493 aircraft delivered vs 348 in all of 2024. ^[31]
October: 53 deliveries, including a mix of 737 MAX, 787, 767 and 777 aircraft. ^[32]
Forecast for November: about 44–45 deliveries, with 33 737s and several 787, 777 and 767 jets. ^[33]

On the 737 MAX production line:

The FAA has lifted its cap, allowing Boeing to increase from 38 to 42 aircraft per month, with future rate hikes planned in small increments of up to 5 aircraft every six months or more. ^[34]
Forecast International estimates 32 MAX aircraft were produced in November, below that 42‑per‑month target but part of a gradual ramp. ^[35]

For 787 Dreamliners, Boeing has stabilized at about 7 aircraft per month and is targeting 8 per month by roughly year‑end and 10 per month by 2026, supported by a $1 billion expansion of its North Charleston facility. ^[36]

Dubai Airshow: a wave of new orders

The Dubai Airshow in November 2025 was a major catalyst for Boeing’s backlog:

Emirates ordered 65 additional 777X (777‑9) aircraft, a deal valued at about $38 billion at list prices. ^[37]
Flydubai signed a Memorandum of Understanding for 75 737 MAX jets plus 75 options, paving the way for up to 150 additional MAX aircraft in its fleet. ^[38]
Gulf Air finalized a firm order for 15 Boeing 787 Dreamliners, with options for several more widebodies. ^[39]
Air Senegal committed to its first 737 MAX order – nine 737‑8 jets with options for six more – marking its first Boeing purchase in over 20 years. ^[40]

These deals help explain why Boeing maintains a lead in 2025 gross orders versus Airbus, even though Airbus still delivers more jets per year. ^[41]

Market demand: Africa, the Middle East and beyond

Boeing is leaning heavily on emerging‑market air travel growth to support its long‑term BA stock story.

Africa: 6% annual traffic growth and a doubling fleet

In a new 2025 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO) for Africa, Boeing projects: ^[42]

Passenger traffic growth: around 6% per year through 2044.
Fleet expansion: the region’s commercial fleet to more than double to 1,680 aircraft over 20 years.
Deliveries: more than 1,200 new airplanes, about 70% of them single‑aisles, pointing to strong 737 MAX demand.
Services: roughly $130 billion in services revenue, plus demand for 74,000 new pilots, technicians and cabin crew over the period.

Together with similar growth forecasts for the Middle East, where Boeing expects almost 3,000 new aircraft deliveries by 2044, these projections support the idea that BA is tied to multi‑decade growth in global aviation, not just short‑term cycles. TechStock²

Strategic portfolio moves: $10.55 billion digital aviation sale

Another pillar of the Boeing recovery story in 2025 is portfolio simplification and debt reduction.

Boeing has completed the sale of much of its Digital Aviation Solutions business to private‑equity firm Thoma Bravo:

The all‑cash deal is worth about $10.55 billion and includes well‑known brands such as Jeppesen, ForeFlight, AerData and OzRunways. TechStock²
The businesses have been relaunched as a separate company, while Boeing says the sale will strengthen the balance sheet and let management focus on core aircraft and defense programs. TechStock²

For BA shareholders, that transaction injects significant liquidity that can be used to pay down debt, support working capital and fund programs like the 777X, albeit at the cost of being less vertically integrated in flight‑data and navigation software.

How healthy is BA stock fundamentally?

Recent analysis from GuruFocus, RoboForex and other data providers paints a picture of a company in recovery but far from financially “safe.” ^[43]

Key metrics (approximate, trailing‑12‑month where applicable):

Revenue: about $80 billion, with a three‑year revenue growth rate around ‑1%, reflecting the long MAX and pandemic downturn. ^[44]
Earnings per share (EPS): roughly –$13 to –$14, i.e., still materially loss‑making. ^[45]
Operating margin: around ‑10%, net margin ~‑12%, highlighting weak profitability despite higher volume. ^[46]
Price‑to‑sales ratio: roughly 1.7×, within historical norms but not “cheap” given negative earnings. ^[47]
Forward P/E: extremely high (dozens of times 2026 earnings), because consensus expects only modest profit even two years out. ^[48]

Liquidity is adequate but not lush: a current ratio around 1.2, large customer advances and inventory balances, and heavy reliance on backlog conversion to generate cash. ^[49]

What Wall Street thinks: ratings and price targets for BA stock

Sell‑side sentiment is cautiously bullish but divided.

A combination of MarketBeat, Barchart, TipRanks, StockAnalysis and other aggregators shows: ^[50]

Ratings mix: the majority of analysts rate BA “Buy” or “Strong Buy”, but there is a meaningful minority of Holds and Sells.
Consensus rating: typically described as “Moderate Buy”. ^[51]
Average 12‑month price targets: generally in the $230–$250 range, implying roughly 20–30% upside from today’s ~$197 share price. TechStock²+2RoboForex+2
Target ranges: low targets cluster around $140–$150, while the most optimistic forecasts stretch up toward $275–$285, underscoring high disagreement about execution risk. ^[52]

Short‑term technical services are more skeptical. For example, StockInvest recently tagged BA as a near‑term “sell candidate”, citing negative technical signals and the potential for short‑term weakness even as fundamentals improve. TechStock²

In other words, fundamental and technical signals aren’t fully aligned: longer‑term models see upside if Boeing executes, while shorter‑term traders remain wary of volatility and headline risk.

Major catalysts (and risks) for BA stock after December 2, 2025

Potential positive drivers

Hitting delivery and cash‑flow targets
- Delivering around 160 jets in Q4 and more than 700 in 2026 would go a long way toward validating the free‑cash‑flow story. ^[53]
777X staying on its 2027 timeline
- After nearly $5 billion in charges and multiple delays, any sign that certification is stabilizing would remove a major overhang. ^[54]
Defense tailwinds
- Multi‑billion‑dollar Apache, tanker and training contracts – plus high‑margin service work – could offset volatility in commercial aviation. ^[55]
Global air‑travel growth in emerging markets
- Strong outlooks in Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia support long‑term demand for 737 MAX, 787 and 777X fleets. ^[56]
Balance‑sheet repair
- Using proceeds from the $10.55 billion digital aviation sale plus rising cash flow to pay down debt would improve Boeing’s resilience and possibly its credit rating. TechStock²+1

Key risks investors can’t ignore

Execution risk on production ramps
- Pushing 737 and 787 rates higher while under close FAA scrutiny leaves little room for quality lapses. Any new production defect or major rework wave could quickly hit cash and reputation. ^[57]
Regulatory and legal overhang
- Boeing is still dealing with the Justice Department, ongoing civil litigation and heightened FAA oversight after the MAX crisis and subsequent incidents (including the Alaska Airlines 2024 door‑plug failure). Further penalties or restrictions would be a serious setback. ^[58]
777X program risk
- The 777X has already generated huge charges and is now slated for 2027 entry into service. Any additional delay or technical problem could mean more write‑downs and lost confidence. ^[59]
High leverage and interest costs
- With tens of billions in debt and negative equity, Boeing is sensitive to interest rates and refinancing conditions. If cash‑flow improvement stalls, deleveraging could take much longer than bulls expect. ^[60]
Competition from Airbus
- Airbus continues to outperform on profitability and has a highly successful A321neo that dominates the upper end of the single‑aisle market, where Boeing has no direct new‑design competitor planned. ^[61]

So is BA stock a buy, sell or hold?

From an investment‑story perspective, BA is still very much a high‑beta turnaround stock:

The bull case rests on a huge backlog, rising 737/787 production, a stabilizing 777X program, growing defense and services earnings and a path to multi‑billion‑dollar free cash flow in 2026 and beyond. If Boeing hits its numbers and avoids new crises, most analyst models see room for 20–30% upside over the next 12–18 monthsfrom current levels. ^[62]
The bear case focuses on execution landmines: any fresh safety incident, production breakdown, major strike, regulatory setback or 777X surprise could erase months of stock gains and force renewed program charges. ^[63]

For short‑term traders, BA will likely remain news‑driven and volatile, moving sharply on monthly deliveries, regulatory headlines and big contract announcements.

For long‑term, risk‑tolerant investors, BA can be viewed as a leveraged play on global air travel and defense spending, with meaningful upside if Boeing completes its turnaround – but it is not yet the kind of steady, cash‑rich industrial that conservative investors typically favor.

Important: This article is for information and news purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research and consider speaking with a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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