- Stock Price (Oct 14, 2025): ~$19.40 (pre-market) [1], up ~8% on Oct 13 (closing $19.37) [2]. This price is near multi-year lows; 52-week range is $14.70–$45.08 [3]. Volume has been elevated (~8–16M shares/day).
- Recent Performance: AI shares rallied mid-2025 with the AI boom but plunged 25% in early Sept after a huge revenue miss [4]. Since then, the stock has bounced slightly on news and short squeezes, but remains down over 50% YTD.
- Business: C3.ai is an enterprise AI software company (founded by Tom Siebel) offering the C3 AI Platform and suite of industry AI applications (CRM, supply chain, energy, defense, etc.) [5]. It targets large enterprises (utilities, manufacturing, aerospace, defense) with cloud-based AI solutions.
- Recent News: In August 2025 C3.ai warned of a massive Q1 FY2026 miss: ~$70M vs guidance $100–109M, blaming founder Siebel’s health issues [6]. Founder-CEO Siebel stepped aside on Sept. 1 and Stephen Ehikian became CEO [7]. This led to a 25% stock crash, withdrawal of fiscal guidance, and now a class-action lawsuit alleging investors were misled about the impact of Siebel’s health [8]. Other recent developments: partnerships with Brazil’s Eletrobras on AI grid management [9], a $450M USAF contract expansion for its PANDA predictive-maintenance system [10], a 3-year AI partnership with defense tech firm SMX [11], and launch of a new “Agentic Process Automation” AI workflow product [12]. C3.ai was also named a Leader in Industrial AI by Verdantix in Sept. 2025 [13].
- Analyst Commentary: Analysts are mostly cautious. Eleven of 13 analysts rate AI a “Hold” with an average 12‑month target ~$24.60 (≈+27% upside) [14]. Notable opinions: Wedbush’s Dan Ives called Q1 “brutal,” cut his target to $23 and warned “darker days could be ahead” unless sales reverse [15]. Morgan Stanley recently trimmed its target further (to ~$11) [16], while a few like JMP Securities still see value (target ~$24) [17]. Many analysts note C3.ai’s momentum slowed vs peers. Zacks Research observes C3.ai is “more vertically specialized” and lacks the scale of Palantir or Snowflake, who boast broader deployments [18].
- Outlook: In the short term the outlook is muted. C3.ai’s Q1 miss and CEO transition have shaken confidence, with FY2026 guidance likely weak. The stock’s rally on Oct 13 (~+8%) on no specific news likely reflects short covering and bargain-hunting. Most analysts have neutral or sell ratings. Long-term, the stock hinges on execution of new management’s strategy and AI demand growth. If enterprise AI budgets recover, a resurgent C3.ai could see higher growth, but near-term consensus remains cautious.
Company Overview
C3.ai, Inc. (NYSE: AI) is a Redwood City, California-based enterprise AI software company [19]. Its flagship C3 AI Platform is an end-to-end cloud environment for building and running AI applications at scale. On top of this, C3.ai offers a suite of industry-specific AI applications (for utilities, manufacturing, financial services, healthcare, defense, etc.) and domain-specific generative AI tools [20] [21]. In FY 2025 (year ended Apr 30) revenue was $389.1 million (up 25% YoY) [22], but the company remains unprofitable (net loss was –$288.7M) [23]. C3.ai was founded by tech entrepreneur Tom Siebel (former CEO); as of Sept 2025 he moved to Executive Chairman and appointed Stephen Ehikian as CEO [24]. C3.ai positions itself against peers like Palantir and Snowflake by focusing on turnkey, vertically-tailored AI solutions.
Recent Stock Performance
As of Oct 14, 2025, C3.ai trades around $19.4 [25]. On Oct. 13 it closed at $19.37, up +8.15% for the day [26]. Over the past week it rose from $17.91 (Oct 10) after dipping to ~$17 in late September [27]. This week’s bounce occurred on relatively high volume (~8M on Oct 13) and reflects a technical rebound after the Sept sell-off. By contrast, the stock sold off sharply in early Sept 2025: on Sept.8 C3.ai warned of a Q1 FY2026 revenue miss, and by market close Sept.11 the shares had fallen ~25% [28]. Overall C3.ai’s shares are off roughly 50–60% since early 2025 (peak ~$45 in late 2024) [29]. The 52-week trading range is $14.70 (Oct 2025 low) to $45.08 (Jan 2025 high) [30], underscoring the volatility.
Key recent moves: the stock spiked as high as ~$20.22 on Oct 6 [31], then slid to ~$18.20 by Oct 8, and rallied to close at $19.37 on Oct 13 [32] [33]. The intraday swings indicate trader speculation amid news. Market observers (e.g. TS2.tech) note that “stocks like C3.ai … ran up astronomically through mid-year, then … fell in late August as traders took profits and waited for the next catalyst” [34]. Indeed, after the mid-summer AI rally petered out, investors were cautious until new catalysts appeared.
Recent Developments
Q1 FY2026 Miss & Leadership Change
On Aug 8, 2025 C3.ai abruptly withdrew its full-year guidance and revealed preliminary Q1 revenue of only ~$70.3M – far below the $100–109M expected [35]. This massive shortfall (down ~40% vs forecast) prompted a ~25% one-day stock crash and investor outrage. Founder Thomas Siebel (then CEO) said he missed much of the quarter due to health issues and stepped aside as CEO on Sept 1 [36]. Stephen Ehikian (longtime executive) took the helm. The misfire led to public backlash: TS2.tech reports C3.ai is now facing a securities class-action lawsuit alleging it misled investors about the impact of Siebel’s health on sales [37]. (Indeed, litigation firms like Wolf Haldenstein and Kain Gallagher have filed suits on behalf of shareholders after the blowup [38] [39].) In effect, C3.ai spent Sept 2025 in damage-control – explaining the miss, defending its disclosures, and reassuring customers while Ehikian reorganizes sales strategy.
Strategic Partnerships & Government Deals
Despite financial setbacks, C3.ai has secured several high-profile contracts and alliances:
- US Air Force / DoD (May 2025): In May 2025, the USAF’s Rapid Sustainment Office raised C3.ai’s contract ceiling to $450 million (from $100M) for its PANDA predictive maintenance platform [40]. This makes the RSO program possibly “the largest production AI deployment in the U.S. DoD today,” according to CTO Ed Abbo [41]. PANDA uses C3.ai’s Agentic AI platform to monitor aircraft and deliver predictive maintenance insights. Abbo noted the expanded program “has the potential to increase aircraft availability by up to 25%” [42]. (This Dept. of Defense deal – which is mission-critical – is a major revenue driver and reputation-builder for C3.ai.)
- Eletrobras (Aug 2025): In August 2025 Reuters reported that Brazilian power utility Eletrobras partnered with C3.ai to use its Grid Intelligence AI tool across Eletrobras’s transmission network [43]. The AI will monitor grid failures and automate corrective actions in real-time. No financial terms were disclosed, but this deal shows C3.ai’s traction in critical infrastructure (a growing market given climate-linked outages).
- SMX (Sept 2025): In early Sept. C3.ai announced a 3-year strategic partnership with SMX, a U.S. defense technology integrator [44]. Under the deal, SMX will combine its FedRAMP/DoD-certified Elevate cloud platform with C3.ai’s Agentic AI tools to deliver “mission-critical AI” to defense and federal agencies [45]. C3.ai CEO Ehikian said the alliance “accelerates AI adoption by providing a pre-accredited, secure environment” for agencies to deploy AI quickly and at scale [46]. This expands C3.ai’s reach into government/defense segments requiring high security.
- Product Launch – Agentic Process Automation (Sept 2025): C3.ai rolled out a new “Agentic Process Automation” product – AI software that automates complex business workflows end-to-end via AI agents and natural-language interfaces [47]. Ehikian heralded it as a breakthrough: “Customers can handle key business processes from start to finish, making complex workflows efficient, reliable, and repeatable,” he said [48]. This product targets white-collar tasks (order-to-cash, HR, procurement, etc.) by wrapping AI reasoning around traditional processes.
- Industry Recognition: On Sept. 24, 2025, industry research firm Verdantix named C3.ai a Leader in Industrial AI Analytics (predictive maintenance and supply chain software) [49]. The report gave C3.ai the highest overall scores for capabilities and momentum in its category [50]. Ehikian said this reaffirms that customers see “substantial economic value” in C3.ai’s solutions [51].
Collectively, these developments show that C3.ai continues to invest in new products and pursue government and industrial contracts – even as near-term sales slipped. The Eletrobras, USAF, and SMX deals expand C3.ai’s footprint, especially in energy and defense, which are strategic segments. Investors will watch whether such deals translate into revenue in FY2026.
Expert Commentary & Analysis
Financial analysts and media have mixed views on C3.ai. The sudden Q1 miss drew negative analyst reactions: Wedbush’s Daniel Ives cut his price target to $23 (from $35) and kept an “Outperform” rating, but ominously warned “darker days could be ahead” unless sales rebound [52]. His note said, “This was a brutal quarter … if C3 cannot turn this around… we are lowering our price target to $23 from $35 reflecting this massive sales miss.” [53]. Other analysts (UBS’s Radi Sultan, Morgan Stanley) similarly lowered targets in Sept. For example, UBS moved its PT to $17 [54], Morgan Stanley slashed from $22 to $11 [55].
Several recent commentary pieces frame C3.ai as an AI struggler vs. its peers. A TS2.Tech market roundup noted: “C3.ai (AI): a former AI stock darling, now struggling. C3 warned of a large Q2 miss in August 2025, causing its stock to crash. Its limited growth contrasts with Palantir’s momentum. Some analysts observe Palantir has ‘mastered land-and-expand’ where C3 has not.” [56]. Similarly, Zacks Research (via Nasdaq site) warns C3.ai’s first-quarter 2026 revenue fell 19% YOY, and notes that Palantir and Snowflake, in contrast, have stronger contract pipelines and scale [57]. In summary, many analysts see C3.ai’s issues as one of execution: it has strong technology but hasn’t delivered the explosive growth of some peers. A Seeking Alpha headline aptly advised investors to “stay patient through the transition,” as leadership and strategy change over [58].
Some analysts remain cautiously optimistic on valuation: a recent Motley Fool article (via stockanalysis) argued C3.ai “is rated a buy” because the stock is deeply down and still controls valuable AI technology [59]. But that bullish view is in the minority. The consensus remains “Hold” [60], reflecting uncertainty. Importantly, no major analyst dropped C3.ai entirely; most are simply waiting for proof of renewed growth.
Forecast and Outlook
Short-term: Analysts expect continued volatility and modest recovery. There are no near-term catalysts until the next earnings release (Q2 FY2026 results likely Nov 2025) or renewed guidance. Some short sellers and value investors are active: one user on StockTwits noted C3.ai as heavily shorted. The Oct. 13 jump suggests capitulation/squeeze rally rather than fundamental news. With guidance withdrawn, many expect management to focus on cost discipline and sales restructuring. C3.ai’s large cash balance (~$743M in Q4 2025) [61] provides a cushion, but investors want signs of sustainable demand.
Long-term: The broad AI industry tailwinds remain strong, and C3.ai has deep enterprise ties. If C3.ai can leverage its partnerships (Microsoft, AWS, Google Cloud, McKinsey, etc.) – as noted by Siebel in the FY2025 results – there is runway. In FY2025, C3.ai achieved “breakthrough innovations in agentic AI” and doubled down on partners [62]. The doubt is whether the company can turn innovation into sales. Current consensus price targets (~$24–25) imply ~25–30% upside from ~$19. Analysts note that is predicated on execution. For reference, tipranks shows targets ranging $10–$42, reflecting wide views.
Weighing both sides, most analysts rate C3.ai as a hold/underperform in the next 3–6 months [63]. However, if C3.ai regains revenue growth and margins improve (a big if), bears could be proven wrong and the stock might climb toward the lower end of peer valuations (e.g. Palantir has >2x revenue multiple, Snowflake ~20x; C3.ai now trades at ~6.6x sales [64]). Currently, around 16 analysts cover C3.ai: 3 buy, 6 hold, 7 sell [65] [66], reflecting the split view.
Price Targets: Consensus target ~$24.60 [67] (as of Sept. 2025). Recent individual targets: Canaccord $16, UBS $16–17, JMP $24 [68] [69]. Fundamental analysts note C3.ai’s revenue growth is slowing (17–18% expected FY2026), so valuations have been cut. Risk factors include further earnings slippage, macro headwinds, or execution failures. Upside triggers would include any sign of stabilizing sales or new multi-year contracts (e.g. winning FedRAMP-certified bids).
Comparative Context
C3.ai’s struggles contrast sharply with some peers in the AI/software space. For example, Palantir (NYSE: PLTR) is up over 100% in 2025 by consistently growing its software revenues, including government contracts (Palantir has been lauded for “mastering land-and-expand” in AI deployments [70]). Snowflake (NYSE: SNOW) – a cloud data AI play – also has seen strong gains as enterprise cloud AI adoption remains robust. Even smaller AI firms like SoundHound (voice AI) and Stability AI have rallied on their own growth stories [71]. By comparison, C3.ai’s key weakness is that its growth decelerated and turned negative in Q1. [72]
Zacks notes that Palantir and Snowflake “enjoy scale advantages” and more diversified customer bases, whereas “C3.ai’s model is more vertically specialized” [73]. Indeed, C3.ai focuses on heavy industries (energy, manufacturing) rather than broad enterprise software. This can mean larger individual deals but also more uneven sales cycles. Still, C3.ai does have some overlapping customers and partner ecosystems with peers: it runs on AWS/Azure/Google (like Snowflake), and sells to federal agencies (like Palantir). If the broader AI boom accelerates, C3.ai could ride that wave, but historically it has lagged the broader market.
Bottom Line: C3.ai remains a leader in enterprise AI platforms, but the near-term outlook is cautious after the mid-2025 turmoil. The stock’s steep pullback (now near 2023 lows) reflects investors’ doubts about immediate growth. Yet if new CEO Ehikian can leverage C3.ai’s technology and partnerships to deliver on sales, the long-term growth prospects may justify higher valuation. For now, most financial media and analysts are neutral, with stock upside tied to execution on both government/industrial deals and new product traction [74] [75].
Sources: Authoritative news and analyst reports were used, including Reuters and Bloomberg-derived data [76] [77], investor communications [78] [79], TS2.tech analysis [80] [81], and consensus data from Yahoo/StockAnalysis [82] [83]. All information is up to date as of Oct 14, 2025.
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