Canada Stock Market Today: TSX Closes at Record High Above 31,000 as Energy and Gold Stocks Rally

Toronto – Wednesday, November 26, 2025, 4:15 p.m. ET —
Canada’s main stock market finished today’s session at a fresh all‑time high, capping a powerful four‑day winning streak driven by surging commodity stocks, booming gold prices and growing confidence that the U.S. Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in December.

The S&P/TSX Composite Index closed at 31,180.25, up 279.60 points or 0.90%, after trading between 30,958.22 and a record intraday high of 31,215.45 on volume of roughly 234 million shares. ^[1]

The move extends an already stellar year: the TSX is up about 24% in 2025, on track for its best annual performance since 2009. ^[2]

TSX closes at new all‑time high

Today’s advance cemented the TSX’s position as one of North America’s standout performers. An investing column describing global markets called the Canadian benchmark “the standout performer in North America,” highlighting its 279.6‑point jump to 31,180.25 as the strongest major‑index gain on the continent today. ^[3]

Historical data from Investing.com confirm that the index has now risen for four consecutive sessions, with gains of 0.85%, 1.47%, 0.97%, and today’s 0.90% since last Friday. ^[4]

Under the surface, the story was familiar but powerful: commodities, rate‑cut optimism and AI‑linked growth themescontinue to do the heavy lifting for Canadian stocks.

Commodities and gold miners lead the charge

A mid‑session market update from Reuters framed the day succinctly: “TSX climbs to record high as commodity‑linked stocks gain.” ^[5]

Key drivers:

Gold & precious metals:
- The gold subindex jumped roughly 2.5% earlier in the day as bullion hit a two‑week high.
- The broader mining group was up about 2%, helped by copper touching its highest level in nearly a month. ^[6]
- Sentiment in the sector got an extra boost after Deutsche Bank raised its 2026 gold price forecast to US$4,450/oz, up from US$4,000, citing strong central‑bank buying and tight supply. ^[7]
Base metals & critical minerals:
- Miners exposed to copper and other “energy transition” metals benefited from both stronger spot prices and strategic news:
  - Teck Resources shares were up around 1% in midday trade after Ottawa said the proposed US$53 billion merger between Anglo American and Teck will undergo a national‑security review focused on critical minerals such as copper and germanium. ^[8]
  - The deal, if approved, would create a copper giant with major operations in both Chile and Canada, reinforcing the TSX’s role as a critical‑minerals hub.
Energy stocks:
- The energy index gained about 0.5% despite crude oil only modestly recovering from a recent slide to one‑month lows driven by tentative Ukraine peace headlines. ^[9]
- U.S. crude was last up around 0.6% to US$58.29 per barrel, helping integrated producers and pipeline companies inch higher. ^[10]

All told, the rally once again showcased the TSX’s traditional strengths: gold, base metals, oil & gas, and the companies that mine and move them.

Rate‑cut bets and Wall Street rally reinforce risk‑on tone

The domestic tailwinds hit just as global risk appetite surged.

On Wall Street, U.S. stocks extended their fourth straight day of gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq pushing toward recent highs as traders intensified bets on a December Fed rate cut. ^[11]

According to futures pricing referenced by Reuters, markets now see roughly an 80–85% probability that the Fed will trim rates by 25 basis points next month, almost double the odds from just a week ago. ^[12]

That dovish pivot matters for Canada because:

Lower U.S. rates support global risk assets, lifting demand for equities worldwide.
They tend to weaken the U.S. dollar, making commodities priced in dollars more attractive and indirectly benefiting resource‑heavy markets like the TSX.
They reduce pressure on the Bank of Canada to keep policy tight, reinforcing views that Canadian rates can stay supportive of growth.

A separate global strategy poll from Reuters projected that while world stock markets should rise moderately into 2026, this year’s explosive rally is unlikely to be repeated. It sees Canada’s market gaining about 5% between now and the end of 2026, a slower but still positive trajectory after 2025’s ~24% surge. ^[13]

Canadian dollar climbs as oil steadies

The currency backdrop also leaned in the TSX’s favour.

The Canadian dollar strengthened to its highest level in nearly a week, appreciating about 0.3% to 1.4048 per U.S. dollar (≈71.2 U.S. cents). ^[14]

Drivers included:

Rising expectations of a dovish Fed, which weighed on the U.S. dollar index.
A broader equity rally that boosted risk sentiment.
Modest gains in crude oil prices, a key export for Canada.

For TSX investors, a firmer loonie is a mixed bag:

It can compress earnings translations for exporters and companies with large U.S. operations.
But it often moves in tandem with commodity strength, which today more than offset any FX headwinds for resource names.

Policy headlines: Steel, lumber and critical‑minerals security

Beyond prices and indices, Ottawa’s policy moves were also in focus for Canadian equity investors.

1. Tougher measures to shield steel & lumber

Prime Minister Mark Carney unveiled additional steps to protect Canada’s steel and lumber sectors from the impact of U.S. tariffs and global dumping:

Import quotas from non‑FTA countries will be cut to 20% of 2024 levels, down from 50%.
Countries with an FTA with Canada (excluding the U.S. and Mexico under USMCA) will see quotas reduced to 75% from 100% of 2024 levels.
Ottawa plans a global 25% tariff on targeted steel‑derivative products and new border measures to combat dumping.
The government will work with railways to halve freight rates for domestic steel and lumber shipments starting in early 2026 and promote the use of locally produced materials in construction. ^[15]

These measures are aimed at redirecting demand toward Canadian producers and could be supportive for steelmakers and forestry stocks over the medium term, even if near‑term pricing remains driven by global cycles.

2. Teck–Anglo mega‑merger faces security scrutiny

As noted above, the proposed merger of Anglo American and Teck Resources will undergo a national security reviewunder the Investment Canada Act, with a focus on:

The role of copper and germanium as critical minerals.
The impact on Canada’s critical‑mineral supply chain, including Teck’s Highland Valley copper mine in British Columbia. ^[16]

While Teck’s shares rose about 1% on the day, the review injects an element of regulatory uncertainty into one of the largest mining deals in recent history.

Sector and stock highlights on the TSX

Banks: Stable, but under fresh scrutiny

Canada’s heavyweight banks were modest contributors to today’s rally compared with resource names:

Data from TradingEconomics show Royal Bank of Canada trading around C$214.88, up only 0.07% on the day, despite being one of the index’s largest constituents. ^[17]
A morning note from Jefferies downgraded both RBC and TD from “buy” to “hold,” arguing that after a strong year their valuations better reflect near‑term earnings risks. ^[18]

At the same time, Evolve Funds announced that its Big Six Canadian Banks UltraYield Index ETF (ticker: SIXY)—a modestly levered product built around RBC, TD, BMO, Scotiabank, CIBC, and National Bank—is expected to begin trading on December 2. ^[19]

The combination of ETF demand and cautious analyst calls left bank stocks largely range‑bound, neither derailing the rally nor powering it.

Tech & growth: Shopify edges higher

In tech, Shopify—one of the TSX’s most influential growth names—was trading modestly higher earlier in the session, with its Toronto‑listed shares quoted around C$223.48, up 0.67%, according to the company’s investor relations site. ^[20]

While intraday moves can change by the close, Shopify’s continued resilience is emblematic of how AI, cloud and e‑commerce themes remain a secondary but important pillar of the TSX’s 2025 performance, supplementing commodities rather than replacing them.

Media & entertainment: Blue Ant–Thunderbird deal

Media stocks got a jolt from a homegrown M&A deal:

Blue Ant Media (TSX: BAMI) agreed to acquire Thunderbird Entertainment, producer of Kim’s Convenienceand owner of Atomic Cartoons, in a transaction valued at about C$89 million (US$63 million).
Thunderbird investors can elect a mix of cash and Blue Ant shares, offering both an immediate premium and ongoing exposure to the combined company. ^[21]

Blue Ant also reported full‑year 2025 revenue of C$204 million, up from C$196.4 million a year earlier, underscoring the strategic rationale for scaling up content production and distribution. ^[22]

The deal highlights how Canadian mid‑cap media companies are reshaping themselves to compete in a streaming‑dominated world—and adds another layer of corporate activity to the TSX’s media and telecom group.

Small‑cap & venture: AI‑driven energy and drones

In the small‑cap and TSX Venture space, a cluster of AI and energy‑transition names generated headlines:

Homerun Resources (TSXV: HMR) announced the first commercial installation of “The Hub”, its AI‑enabled energy management system, on a Risen battery‑energy‑storage asset. The software now controls live charging and discharging based on market signals and grid conditions, marking a key commercialization milestone for the company’s energy‑solutions business. ^[23]
Volatus Aerospace closed a C$26.39 million bought‑deal public offering and non‑brokered private placement, bolstering its balance sheet as it targets drone‑services growth and AI‑driven aerial data products into 2026. ^[24]
Boardwalktech Software (TSXV: BWLK) reported second‑quarter fiscal 2026 results, emphasizing recurring revenue from its data‑management and digital‑twin software—another sign that Canada’s listed tech ecosystem is quietly broadening beyond a handful of big names. ^[25]

These micro‑ and small‑cap developments don’t move the TSX Composite on their own, but they illustrate where domestic growth capital is increasingly being deployed: AI, energy optimization, drones and specialized software.

How today fits into the bigger picture for Canadian investors

Today’s record close sits at the intersection of cyclical momentum and structural shifts:

Momentum is still with Canada’s resource trade.
- Gold, copper and energy names continue to dominate index‑level moves.
- Deutsche Bank’s sharply higher gold forecast and ongoing demand for critical minerals suggest those themes may persist into 2026, even if volatility increases. ^[26]
Macro tailwinds could be peaking.
- With the TSX up nearly 24% this year and global strategists calling for more modest gains ahead, expectations for straight‑line upside may need to be tempered. ^[27]
Policy risk is back on the radar.
- Ottawa’s tougher stance on steel, lumber and foreign takeovers shows that industrial policy will matter for Canadian stocks—especially in sectors deemed strategic. ^[28]
Breadth is improving, but concentration remains high.
- Banks, tech and a growing roster of AI‑adjacent small caps are participating, but the index is still heavily tied to a relatively narrow set of commodity‑linked drivers.

For now, Canada’s stock market ends November 26 on a high note: record levels, robust liquidity, and a supportive macro backdrop. But with valuations elevated and policy decisions looming—from the Fed’s December meeting to the Teck–Anglo shareholder vote—the next leg of the TSX story is likely to be more nuanced than today’s clean, broad‑based rally.