Risk‑off mood ahead of Nvidia earnings and key U.S. data pushes Canadian stocks lower for a second straight session on November 18, 2025.
TORONTO – November 18, 2025 – The Canada stock market today is firmly in risk‑off mode. Canada’s main benchmark, the S&P/TSX Composite Index, fell more than 100 points in late‑morning trading, slipping back below the psychologically important 30,000 level as losses in telecommunications, technology and base‑metal stocks dragged the market lower. [1]
By late morning, the S&P/TSX Composite was down about 149 points at 29,927.42, roughly a 0.5% drop on the day, leaving the index on track for a second consecutive decline after Monday’s roughly 0.8% slide to a 10‑day low. [2] U.S. markets were also sharply lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all in the red as global investors pared risk ahead of crucial U.S. economic data and blockbuster earnings from AI chip giant Nvidia. [3]
The Canadian dollar was little changed, trading around 71.4 U.S. cents (about C$1.40 per US$), while oil hovered just under US$60 a barrel and gold fluctuated near the US$4,000 mark. [4]
TSX tracks global sell‑off below the 30,000 mark
The move lower in Canadian stocks is tightly synchronized with the global equity pullback.
A Reuters/Trading Economics summary noted that the S&P/TSX Composite fell around 0.4%, slipping below the 30,000 level as investors mirrored the cautious tone seen in U.S. and European markets. [5] The weakness follows Monday’s drop of about 0.8%, leaving the benchmark roughly 1.2% lower over two sessions and pulling it further away from recent highs above 30,500. [6]
On Wall Street, major U.S. indices hit one‑month lows as investors reassessed lofty valuations and scaled back expectations for a December rate cut from the Federal Reserve. Mid‑session, the Dow was off around 0.8%, the S&P 500 about 0.5% and the Nasdaq roughly 0.8%. [7] A separate global markets update showed the sell‑off broadening across Europe and Asia, with a risk‑off tone driving up demand for safe‑haven assets such as U.S. Treasuries and gold. [8]
For Canadian investors, that means the TSX is once again trading as a “beta” play on global sentiment rather than a market driven primarily by domestic news. As one strategist put it in the Reuters coverage, Canadian stocks have largely “shadowed Wall Street” in recent weeks, with local data and even Ottawa’s fiscal plans having only a muted impact on prices. [9]
Sector performance: tech, banks and telcos under pressure
The Canada stock market today is being led lower by many of the same sectors that fueled this year’s rally.
Technology and financials are at the front of the decline. A Trading Economics brief noted that tech and financial shares led losses on the S&P/TSX Composite, with heavyweight e‑commerce platform Shopify and major lender CIBC each down close to 2% in early trading. [10] That’s consistent with pressure on big U.S. tech and chip names ahead of Nvidia’s earnings, which many see as a key test of how sustainable the AI investment boom really is. [11]
Telecoms were another major drag. Shares of Telus Corp. fell about 3.6% after JP Morgan cut its rating on the company to “underweight” from “neutral,” a move that weighed on the broader telecommunications group and added to selling pressure on the TSX. [12]
Base‑metal and industrial names also slipped as investors fretted over global growth and a stronger U.S. dollar, which can pressure copper and other industrial commodities priced in greenbacks. [13]
Not all the action was negative, however. Gold miners helped cushion the blow. Trading Economics highlighted that a rebound in gold prices supported major mining names, many of which had sold off in the previous session. [14]Reuters separately reported that activist hedge fund Elliott Management has built a large stake in Barrick (ABX), pushing its shares up around 1.6% and adding a dash of stock‑specific optimism to the materials sector. [15]
Commodities, currency and yields: mixed signals
Oil steady, gold volatile
Energy is traditionally a key driver of the Canada stock market, and today’s commodity tape is sending a fairly neutral message.
The January crude oil contract traded near US$59.88 per barrel, up just two cents on the day, according to Canadian Press figures reported late in the morning. [16] Broader WTI futures data show front‑month contracts hovering just below US$60, almost flat versus Monday’s close, while Brent crude sits in the low‑US$60s. [17]
Gold, meanwhile, has been on a roller coaster. The December gold futures contract quoted in Toronto was down about US$27.80 at US$4,046.70 an ounce earlier in the session. [18] But intraday data from Trading Economics show spot gold later trading a little above US$4,060, modestly higher on the day as soft U.S. economic numbers and the equity sell‑off boosted safe‑haven demand. [19]
For the TSX, that combination—stable oil and slightly firmer gold—helps explain why energy stocks are not being hit as hard as tech and financials, while precious‑metals miners are one of the few pockets of green on the screen. [20]
Loonie pinned near C$1.40 and bond yields at 2‑month highs
The Canadian dollar continues to trade in a narrow band around C$1.40 per U.S. dollar, or roughly 71–71.5 U.S. cents. [21] A Reuters FX report on Monday noted that the loonie recently touched a 10‑day low after October inflation cooled, with traders weighing slower price growth at home against a still‑resilient U.S. dollar. [22]
On the fixed‑income side, the 10‑year Government of Canada bond yield is holding just above 3.2%, roughly a two‑month high, according to Trading Economics and other market data providers. [23] Higher long‑term yields can pressure rate‑sensitive sectors such as utilities, pipelines and real estate investment trusts, while supporting bank net‑interest margins over time.
Taken together, a firm U.S. dollar, elevated Canadian yields and choppy commodity prices are creating a tougher backdrop for risk assets—even as domestic inflation moves closer to the Bank of Canada’s 2% target. [24]
Domestic backdrop: weak housing, cooler inflation and a big‑spending budget
Housing starts slump
Fresh data added another wrinkle to the Canada stock market narrative today.
Canadian housing starts fell 17% in October compared with September, dropping to an annualized pace of 232,765 units from a revised 279,174. Economists had expected a smaller decline to about 265,000, according to figures released by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation and reported by Reuters. [25]
The pullback in new construction suggests that higher borrowing costs and weaker buyer demand are beginning to bite, even after the Bank of Canada’s recent rate cuts. That’s potentially negative for homebuilders and construction‑related stocks, but it could also help cool price pressures over time.
Inflation edges toward the target as the BoC pauses
Inflation data released Monday showed Canada’s annual CPI easing to 2.2% in October, down from 2.4% in September, largely thanks to lower gasoline and food prices and a drop in mortgage interest costs below 3%. [26]Stripping out the impact of the earlier removal of a carbon levy on gasoline, underlying inflation was 2.7%, still above target but moving in the right direction. [27]
The Bank of Canada recently cut its policy rate to 2.25%—a three‑year low—and signalled that its easing cycle is likely near an end while trimming its 2025 growth forecast to 1.2% from 1.8%. [28] With inflation cooling and housing starting to weaken, markets are now debating whether the central bank can stay on hold or whether more cuts will eventually be needed if growth disappoints.
Carney’s first budget and fiscal outlook
On the political front, Prime Minister Mark Carney cleared a key hurdle this week as Parliament narrowly approved his first federal budget, avoiding the spectre of a second election within a year. [29]
The budget roughly doubles Canada’s fiscal deficit in 2025‑26 to counter U.S. tariffs and ramp up spending on defence and housing—prior estimates suggest a shortfall somewhere between C$70 billion and C$100 billion versus about C$43 billion in the prior fiscal year. [30] While markets initially took the news in stride, the prospect of larger deficits could keep some upward pressure on long‑term bond yields, especially if growth underperforms. [31]
So far, though, today’s TSX move suggests global factors—Nvidia, the Fed and U.S. data—matter more to investors than Ottawa’s fiscal arithmetic.
Stock‑specific stories: MTY Food Group, Barrick, Telus and battery metals
Beyond the index‑level moves, several notable corporate stories are shaping the Canada stock market today.
- MTY Food Group sale exploration: Reuters reported that MTY Food Group, owner of brands like Pinkberry, Cold Stone Creamery and Wetzel’s Pretzels, has hired TD Bank to explore a potential sale. The Montreal‑based franchisor, valued at roughly US$550–620 million, confirmed a strategic review that could include a full or partial sale of the company. MTY shares jumped more than 13% after the news broke on Monday, underlining strong private‑equity interest in royalty‑rich franchise models. [32]
- Barrick and activist pressure: A report that Elliott Management has built a sizable stake in Barrick helped push the miner’s shares higher today, giving a lift to the broader gold‑mining space at a time when many investors are seeking defensive exposure. [33]
- Telus downgrade: As noted earlier, Telus slid after a JP Morgan downgrade, reinforcing a broader theme: in a higher‑rate, slower‑growth world, investors are quicker to punish perceived cracks in telecom balance sheets and dividend sustainability. [34]
- Battery‑materials financing: On the junior‑mining front, First Canadian Graphite announced plans to raise up to $525,000 through a mix of “hard dollar” and flow‑through share financings to advance its Berkwood Graphite Project in Quebec, highlighting ongoing investor interest—albeit at small scale—in battery‑metals exploration. [35]
These stories won’t move the index on their own, but they illustrate where capital is still flowing inside a choppy market: toward strategic assets (franchise networks, gold miners, critical minerals) and away from more rate‑sensitive or highly leveraged stories.
What today’s moves mean for Canadian investors
For investors watching the Canada stock market today, three themes stand out:
- 30,000 is a key psychological line for the TSX. A sustained break below that level—especially if accompanied by weaker U.S. data or disappointing Nvidia earnings—could invite more systematic selling from trend‑following and quant strategies. [36]
- Canada is trading as a global proxy, not a domestic story. Cooling inflation, a big new budget and weak housing starts are important, but in the short term, Canadian stocks are reacting far more to U.S. tech valuations, Fed expectations and global risk appetite than to Ottawa’s policy choices. [37]
- Sector rotation is ongoing. High‑growth and rate‑sensitive areas—tech, some financials, telecoms—are under pressure, while gold miners and select defensive or cash‑flow‑rich businesses are holding up better. [38]
In practical terms, that means:
- Short‑term traders are likely to focus on Wednesday’s Nvidia results and the upcoming U.S. jobs data as the next catalysts for both Wall Street and Bay Street. [39]
- Longer‑term investors may want to pay attention to balance‑sheet strength, dividend sustainability and sensitivity to long‑term interest rates rather than trying to guess the next daily move in the TSX.
As always, this is market commentary, not personalized investment advice—any portfolio decisions should be made in light of your own risk tolerance, time horizon and financial plan.
References
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