TORONTO — Monday, November 24, 2025 — Canada’s main stock index is set for a cautious but constructive start to the week, with S&P/TSX futures essentially flat as investors balance renewed optimism over a potential U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut against weaker oil prices and an important batch of economic data at home and abroad. TradingView
Below is a detailed pre‑market briefing on what matters most for the Canadian stock market before the opening bell.
TSX futures flat as week begins
Futures linked to the S&P/TSX Composite were unchanged early Monday, with December contracts trading around 1,782.2 points at 06:20 a.m. ET, pointing to a muted open after a volatile stretch for Canadian equities. TradingView
On Friday, the cash index rose roughly 0.9%, trimming part of its earlier losses and leaving the benchmark about 0.5% lower for the week, after an AI‑driven global tech selloff rattled risk appetite. TradingView
Key drivers of today’s tone:
- Fed rate‑cut hopes are improving again after dovish remarks from New York Fed President John Williams, who said U.S. rates could fall “in the near term,” reinforcing expectations for a December cut. TradingView
- Commodity pressure is coming from softer crude prices as traders weigh the possibility of a Russia–Ukraine peace deal that could eventually loosen sanctions and increase oil supply. TradingView
- Haven metals are steadier: gold is hovering near record territory around US$4,050–4,100 per ounce, as strong Fed‑cut bets offset the drag from a firm U.S. dollar. Reuters
Put simply, the TSX heads into the open with a risk‑on macro story but a mixed commodity backdrop, a combination that could favour technology and gold miners over energy producers at the start of trading.
Global backdrop: Fed, data deluge and U.S. holiday week
The Canadian market opens into a global environment dominated by U.S. central‑bank expectations and a heavy data calendar:
- U.S. equity futures are pointing higher for the holiday‑shortened Thanksgiving week, with pre‑market gains across Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq contracts. Investopedia
- Fed fund futures now imply roughly 70–75% odds of a 25‑basis‑point cut in December, sharply higher than a week ago, following comments from Williams and other officials suggesting more room to ease. Investing
- A “data deluge” is coming: U.S. producer prices, retail sales, industrial production and third‑quarter GDP updates are due over the next few days, all of which could shift expectations around the Fed’s next move. Investing
Overnight, U.S. markets have already been strong: the Nasdaq just logged its best session since May, powered by a renewed artificial‑intelligence rally led by Alphabet after the latest Gemini AI launch, with knock‑on gains for chip and networking names such as Broadcom. MarketWatch
For Canadian investors, that backdrop matters because:
- TSX tech names like Celestica and Shopify tend to track U.S. AI sentiment closely. Reuters
- A softer global rate outlook supports growth and rate‑sensitive sectors (technology, real estate, consumer discretionary), but may weigh on financials’ net interest margins over time.
Bank of Canada, inflation and Friday’s GDP: the domestic macro story
While the Fed dominates headlines, Canadian traders can’t ignore the Bank of Canada (BoC) and incoming domestic data.
Where monetary policy stands
On October 29, the BoC cut its overnight rate by 25 bps to 2.25%, describing that level as broadly appropriate if the economy and inflation evolve as expected. Bankofcanada
Minutes released on November 12 showed:
- Policymakers agreed to “look through” volatile headline inflation and focus on underlying metrics.
- Headline CPI was 2.4% in September, near the middle of the 1–3% target band, while core measures were still closer to 2½–3%. Reuters
More recent private‑sector analysis suggests inflation cooled further in October, with one major bank estimating headline CPI at 2.2% year‑over‑year, helped by flat food prices and lower transportation costs, though rent inflation remains elevated. Nbc
Q3 GDP preview
For the week of November 24, RBC Economics expects Canada’s economy to have grown at roughly 0.5% annualised in Q3, after a 1.6% contraction in Q2 driven by trade disruptions. Rbc
Key points from that preview:
- September GDP is expected to rebound by about 0.3%, offsetting an unexpected August dip. Rbc
- Trade‑exposed sectors such as manufacturing and wholesale have started to recover after sharp declines earlier in the year.
- Domestic demand — especially consumer spending and housing — remains relatively resilient despite higher borrowing costs. Rbc
The official Q3 GDP release is due Friday, making this a big week for data‑driven moves in:
- Banks and insurers, which are sensitive to growth and credit quality.
- Cyclicals such as industrials and consumer discretionary.
- Rate‑sensitive plays in real estate and utilities, which respond both to BoC expectations and global bond yields.
Commodities check: oil under pressure, gold elevated, loonie soft
The TSX’s resource tilt means today’s commodity tape is crucial.
Oil: peace talks weigh on crude
In early Monday trading, crude benchmarks extended last week’s retreat:
- Brent crude traded around US$62.40, down roughly 0.2%.
- West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped to about US$57.90 a barrel. Hellenic Shipping News
Drivers:
- Ongoing Russia–Ukraine peace talks, with markets speculating that a U.S.-brokered deal could eventually free up more Russian barrels and ease sanctions. Hellenic Shipping News
- Broader concerns about oversupply in 2026, with major banks forecasting that global production may outpace demand, reinforcing a bearish medium‑term outlook for crude. Investing
For Canadian investors, weaker crude is a near‑term headwind for:
- Integrated producers and oil sands majors, whose cash flows are directly tied to benchmark prices.
- Energy‑service companies, which are sensitive to capex plans and drilling activity.
Gold: high, steady and tightly linked to the Fed
Gold continues to trade at historically high levels:
- Spot prices hovered in the US$4,050–4,080/oz range on Monday, nearly flat on the day. Reuters
- The metal has consolidated above US$4,000/oz after a powerful 2025 rally, and some strategists now see a path toward US$4,500 by mid‑2026 if rate cuts materialise. Investing
Today’s setup:
- Fed cut bets and geopolitical uncertainty continue to support bullion.
- A strong U.S. dollar and rising risk appetite in equities keep a lid on further immediate gains. Reuters
This is broadly positive for TSX‑listed gold miners and diversified materials companies, which were among the strongest performers in recent Canadian sessions. Reuters
Canadian dollar: still hovering near US$0.71
The Canadian dollar recently traded around US$0.708–0.71, a touch weaker against the greenback, reflecting both diverging rate expectations and softer commodity prices. CityNews Halifax
A softer loonie:
- Helps exporters in sectors such as manufacturing and technology by improving competitiveness.
- Offsets some of the damage to energy producers from lower dollar‑denominated oil prices.
Corporate and sector stories to watch
Beyond macro and commodities, several company‑ and sector‑specific developments from November 24 are likely to shape trading.
1. Barrick and gold miners in the spotlight
Barrick Mining remains a key stock to watch after news that it has reached an agreement in principle with Mali’s government to resolve a long‑running dispute over the Loulo–Gounkoto gold complex. TradingView
- The resolution removes a significant geopolitical overhang and reinforces Barrick’s positioning as a core global gold producer.
- With gold prices elevated, any easing of political risk can have an outsized valuation impact on large miners.
Expect heightened interest across the broader materials group, which already outperformed on recent sessions as bullion prices climbed. Reuters
2. Tech: Celestica, Shopify and the AI trade
Tech was the other major winner in recent trading, and investors will be watching for follow‑through:
- The TSX technology sector has been rallying in tandem with U.S. peers, helped by renewed enthusiasm for artificial intelligence. Reuters
- Celestica — a key electronics and hardware name with exposure to AI‑related infrastructure — recently saw double‑digit gains as sentiment rebounded. Reuters
With Alphabet and other AI bellwethers leading U.S. benchmarks higher, Canadian software and hardware names may continue to see inflows at the open. MarketWatch
3. Index reshuffles: Gildan and the S&P/TSX benchmarks
S&P Dow Jones Indices has announced changes to the S&P/TSX 60 and S&P/TSX Composite, tied to corporate actions at Gildan Activewear following shareholder votes. Spglobal
Why it matters:
- Index changes typically force passive funds and ETFs to rebalance, generating additional volume and short‑term price moves for affected constituents.
- Traders often position ahead of the effective date, especially in more thinly traded names.
Even without knowing all the details of the rejig, investors can expect elevated activity in Gildan and related textile/consumer stocks as index‑tracking money adjusts.
4. ESG and climate: Canada Climate Week Xchange opens the market
The Toronto Stock Exchange is marking the start of Canada Climate Week Xchange (CCWX) 2025 with a ceremonial market open on November 24. Tsx
- CCWX brings together listed companies, investors, First Nations financial organisations and climate‑focused groups for a week of events across the country. Tsx
- While largely symbolic for day‑to‑day trading, the spotlight may boost interest in renewable energy, clean‑tech and ESG‑labelled issuers.
For investors seeking thematic exposure, today’s open could come with extra corporate announcements or media coverage from climate‑linked names.
5. Trade diplomacy: India–Canada talks back on track
On the geopolitical front, India and Canada have agreed to resume stalled trade negotiations after a two‑year diplomatic freeze, according to Monday’s futures report. TradingView
Potential market angles:
- Agriculture and potash producers could benefit from improved market access.
- Education, tech services and travel‑related companies may see longer‑term tailwinds if people‑to‑people and business links deepen again.
While nothing concrete is priced in yet, the reopening of dialogue reduces one layer of uncertainty around Canada’s Asia strategy.
Key themes shaping the Canadian open today
Bringing it all together, here are the main storylines to keep in mind before the TSX opens:
- Fed vs. BoC rate paths
- Markets expect a December Fed cut, while the BoC has signalled it is near an appropriate policy setting after its October move to 2.25%. Bankofcanada
- This divergence influences the CAD, bond yields and leadership between growth vs. value on the TSX.
- Commodities cross‑currents
- Oil is under pressure from peace‑talk and oversupply concerns. Hellenic Shipping News
- Gold is resilient, anchored by elevated prices and rate‑cut hopes. Reuters
- Net‑net, that mix favours gold miners and tech over energy at the margin.
- Macro data calendar
- U.S. inflation and growth numbers, plus Canada’s Q3 GDP print on Friday, will be crucial for confirming or challenging the current “soft‑landing with rate cuts” narrative. Investing
- Sector rotation into tech and materials
- Recent sessions have seen technology and metal miners lead gains, helped by AI optimism and strong bullion prices. Reuters
- Watch whether financials and industrials can catch up, or if the rally stays concentrated in a few high‑beta pockets.
- Event‑ and news‑driven names
- Barrick, Gildan, and select climate‑ or ESG‑linked issuers are likely to be more actively traded thanks to company‑specific headlines and index adjustments. Reuters
What this means for investors at the bell
Going into the November 24 open, the Canadian stock market sits at the intersection of:
- A supportive global rate narrative,
- A cautious commodity tape, and
- An important domestic data week that culminates with Q3 GDP.
In practical terms, that suggests:
- Short‑term sentiment could remain constructive, especially in tech and gold‑linked names, so long as Fed‑cut odds stay high and U.S. data doesn’t dramatically surprise to the upside on inflation.
- Energy and some cyclicals may lag if crude continues to slide or growth data comes in soft.
- Stock‑specific catalysts — Barrick’s dispute resolution, index changes around Gildan, and CCWX‑related visibility for climate‑linked issuers — may create opportunities and volatility regardless of the broader index direction.
As always, this overview is for information only and not personalized investment advice. Individual decisions should still be based on your risk tolerance, time horizon and, ideally, professional guidance.
