CAVA Stock Soars 12% as Big Money Buys the Dip After Q3 Earnings

CAVA Group, Inc. (NYSE: CAVA), the fast‑casual Mediterranean chain that wants to be the next Chipotle, just delivered one of the biggest moves in the market. After weeks of heavy selling and fresh 52‑week lows, CAVA stock ripped higher by roughly 12% on Friday, closing around $49 and trading on more than double its recent average volume. ^[1]

The rebound comes on the heels of strong Q3 2025 results, a newly launched merchandise shop, and a flurry of 13F filings showing institutional investors significantly increasing their stakes — even as CAVA trimmed its 2025 guidance earlier this month and options traders piled into bearish bets. ^[2]

Below is a detailed breakdown of what moved CAVA this week and what investors are watching now.

Key Takeaways for CAVA Stock Today

Shares bounced hard from the lows. CAVA closed near $49, up about 12% on Friday, after trading in the mid‑$40s earlier this week and setting new 52‑week lows. The stock’s 52‑week range now runs roughly from the mid‑$40s to about $153, highlighting just how volatile it has been since the IPO. ^[3]
Q3 2025 delivered 20% revenue growth. CAVA’s fiscal Q3 revenue rose 20% year over year to about $289.8 million, boosted by 17 net new restaurants, while restaurant‑level profit margin held at a very healthy 24.6%. Same‑restaurant sales increased 1.9%. ^[4]
Guidance was cut — but growth is still intact. Earlier this month, the company lowered its full‑year same‑restaurant sales and margin outlook for the second time in 2025, citing softer demand from younger, budget‑constrained diners and higher food costs (including tariff‑related pressure on beef). ^[5]
The CAVA Shop pushes the brand beyond the bowl. On November 13, CAVA launched “The CAVA Shop,” an always‑on online merch store selling branded hoodies, tees, hats, and accessories, aimed squarely at Gen Z and millennial superfans. ^[6]
Institutions are quietly loading up. New and updated 13F filings released today show Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH, Artisan Partners and AXQ Capital all increasing or initiating positions in CAVA, reinforcing a trend of heavy institutional ownership (~73% of the float). ^[7]
Wall Street still likes the story. Despite recent price‑target cuts, analysts maintain a “Moderate Buy” consensus rating with an average target around $81.75, implying sizable upside from current levels if CAVA can execute on its long‑term plan to reach at least 1,000 restaurants by 2032. ^[8]

CAVA Stock Today: A Violent Bounce After a Brutal Slide

CAVA has had a rough 2025. According to recent analysis, the stock had been down around 58% year‑to‑date heading into November, with momentum indicators flashing “oversold.” ^[9] Earlier this month, shares hit fresh 52‑week lows in the mid‑$40s, just over a year after trading above $150. ^[10]

Friday’s move changed the tone — at least for now. MarketBeat data shows CAVA closing at about $48.97, up 12.3% on the day, with the stock now valued at roughly $5.7 billion and trading at ~42× earnings. ^[11]

Trading volume surged as well. Intraday NYSE data show more than 9.2 million shares changing hands versus an average daily volume of around 3.9 million, meaning activity was well over 2× normal levels as buyers stepped back in. ^[12]

Several outlets highlighted CAVA as one of the top market movers on Friday, with both traditional stock media and crypto‑adjacent sites (like CoinCentral and MEXC’s news feed) pointing to the same core driver: investors are re‑rating the stock after digesting Q3 and the company’s updated long‑term story. ^[13]

Q3 2025: Strong Growth + Tight Margins, But Softer Guidance

CAVA’s fiscal third quarter 2025, ended October 5, is the backdrop for everything happening in the stock right now.

Solid headline numbers

In its official Q3 release, CAVA reported: ^[14]

Revenue: $289.8 million, up 20.0% year over year
Same‑restaurant sales: +1.9%
Net new restaurants:17, bringing the total restaurant count to 415, about 18% more units than a year ago
Average unit volume (AUV): about $2.9 million
Restaurant‑level profit margin:24.6% (vs. 25.6% a year ago)
Net income:$14.7 million (about 5% net margin)
Adjusted EBITDA:$40.0 million, up 19.6% from Q3 2024

Digital remains a big piece of the story, with 37.6% of revenue coming from digital channels in the quarter. ^[15]

Several third‑party recaps — including StockstoTrade and CoinCentral — framed the quarter as proof that CAVA can still grow double digits and maintain premium margins even in a tougher macro environment, as long as it keeps opening new restaurants and stretching its brand into new revenue streams. ^[16]

The catch: guidance cuts and a small earnings miss

Despite those strong top‑line numbers, the market initially focused on what went wrong rather than what went right:

EPS came in at about $0.12, slightly below Wall Street expectations closer to $0.13. ^[17]
Revenue of $289.8 million missed consensus estimates around $292–293 million, according to LSEG and multiple analyst summaries. ^[18]

More importantly, CAVA cut its full‑year outlook again:

Same‑restaurant sales: now expected to rise 3–4%, down from a prior 4–6% range
Restaurant‑level profit margin: trimmed to 24.4–24.8% from 24.8–25.2%
Adjusted EBITDA: guided to $148–152 million, down from August guidance of $152–159 million ^[19]

In an interview with Reuters, CFO Tricia Tolivar pointed directly to younger diners (ages 25–35) pulling back on spending amid higher rents, resumed student loan payments, and rising unemployment. She also flagged tariffs on imported beef as a roughly 20 basis‑point drag on restaurant‑level margins in the quarter. ^[20]

That cautious tone led to an immediate sell‑off earlier this month, with the stock falling sharply and eventually tagging those new 52‑week lows before this week’s rebound. ^[21]

“The CAVA Shop”: Turning Superfans Into Walking Billboards

One piece of the growth story that jumped out in this earnings season is merch.

On November 10, CAVA announced The CAVA Shop, a dedicated online merch store that went live on November 13. The initial collection includes:

Oversized CAVA zip‑up hoodies
Multiple hats (including a tongue‑in‑cheek “Man, I Love Feta” / “MILF” feta hat)
Feta and Hot Harissa hoodies and tees
A Hot Harissa Vacation Tote and other accessories
A “Skhug” crewneck and a “Flavor Socks Trio” for hardcore fans ^[22]

CAVA is leaning into its Gen Z and millennial customer base by rolling out the line with a roster of foodie influencers who already post CAVA “mukbangs” and custom bowl content on TikTok and Instagram. ^[23]

CoinCentral and other investor‑facing outlets explicitly cited the merch launch as part of the bull case: it’s a relatively asset‑light way to monetize brand affinity, keep CAVA in the social feed, and potentially widen margins over time if the shop scales. ^[24]

For a restaurant chain trying to build a “category‑defining” lifestyle brand, that matters. CAVA already sells dips and spreads in grocery stores, and merch is another way to spread the logo into day‑to‑day life. ^[25]

Big Money Moves: Institutions Keep Buying CAVA

The most headline‑worthy news for November 22 is on the ownership side. A wave of updated 13F filings shows institutions using the recent weakness to accumulate shares.

Today’s new filings

New MarketBeat alerts published this morning highlight three notable institutional moves: ^[26]

Universal Beteiligungs und Servicegesellschaft mbH
- Increased its CAVA stake by 17.9% in Q2 to 84,401 shares, worth roughly $7.11 million at the time of the filing
- Now holds about 0.07% of the company
Artisan Partners Limited Partnership
- Opened a new position of 165,462 shares, valued at about $13.9 million
- That represents roughly 0.14% of CAVA’s outstanding shares
AXQ Capital LP
- Boosted its position by 219.9% to 11,120 shares, worth roughly $937,000

All three reports note that institutional ownership now sits around 73%, a figure backed up by separate MarketBeat coverage focusing on options activity and fund flows. ^[27]

Broader institutional picture

Beyond these individual funds, CAVA’s shareholder list is dominated by big asset managers:

Vanguard Group holds roughly 9.1 million shares, having added more than 1 million shares in the last reported quarter.
Price T. Rowe Associates owns about 2.4 million shares, more than doubling its position over the past year.
Other heavyweights like Capital Research, AllianceBernstein, and Capital International Investors have also significantly increased their stakes. ^[28]

Taken together, the filings suggest that long‑term, fundamental investors are treating the recent sell‑off as an opportunity rather than a verdict on the business model.

Options Traders Turned Bearish — Right Before the Bounce

Institutional buying is only half the story. Earlier this week, options traders were leaning heavily bearish on CAVA.

A November 19 MarketBeat note flagged “unusually high options volume” in the name:

Traders bought 54,211 put options on CAVA in a single session
That’s about a 98% increase versus its typical daily put volume of 27,333 contracts ^[29]

At the same time, the stock was trading near $45, with sentiment battered by the guidance cut and broader concerns around the fast‑casual space. ^[30]

Friday’s 12% surge now puts some of those bearish bets under pressure and highlights how quickly sentiment can flip in a volatile, high‑growth stock with a relatively new public track record.

Long‑Term Story: 1,000 Restaurants and a Growing Category

For all the day‑to‑day drama, the long‑term CAVA story hasn’t really changed.

Aggressive expansion plan

CAVA still plans to reach at least 1,000 restaurants by 2032, up from just over 400 today. ^[31]

In its Q2 and Q3 releases, management reiterated that the company is on track for that 1,000‑unit milestone, with new restaurants continuing to exceed internal performance expectations. ^[32]
A recent Miami expansion release noted that CAVA now operates in 28 states plus Washington, D.C., with a growing presence in South Florida and the Midwest. ^[33]

Restaurant Dive recently pointed out that in less than 2.5 years as a public company, CAVA has grown from 263 units to more than 400, making it the clear leader in the emerging Mediterranean fast‑casual segment. ^[34]

Competitive but expanding category

That same Restaurant Dive deep‑dive highlighted a wave of competitors — including Taim, Taziki’s Mediterranean Café, Nick the Greek, and The Halal Guys — that are franchising aggressively to chase CAVA’s lead. Yet industry experts quoted in the piece argued that Mediterranean fast‑casual is still early in its growth curve, with plenty of room for multiple winners. ^[35]

In other words: CAVA isn’t just fighting for share inside a mature niche; it’s helping build that niche.

What Analysts Are Saying About CAVA Now

Despite the recent drawdown, Wall Street hasn’t abandoned CAVA — but expectations have cooled.

Across multiple MarketBeat summaries of recent research notes:

Bank of America cut its target from $121 to $100 but kept a “Buy” rating. ^[36]
Piper Sandler lowered its target from $100 to $71 while maintaining an “overweight” stance. ^[37]
TD Cowen reduced its target from $80 to $67 but still calls the stock a “buy.” ^[38]
Other firms, including Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, and Argus, have trimmed their targets but continue to see upside. ^[39]

In aggregate, CAVA carries:

A “Moderate Buy” consensus rating
An average price target around $81.75, which is roughly 65–70% above Friday’s closing price ^[40]

Analysts generally agree on the core thesis:

Unit economics are strong. New restaurants are ramping quickly with AUVs near or above $3 million. ^[41]
Category momentum is real. Health‑forward, customizable Mediterranean bowls fit long‑term consumer trends. ^[42]
Macro and valuation are the main risks. Slower traffic from younger consumers, higher food costs and wage inflation, plus a still‑rich earnings multiple, leave little room for execution missteps. ^[43]

What Friday’s Move Means for Investors

Here’s how to frame today’s action if you’re following CAVA stock:

The business is still growing. Q3 showed that CAVA can grow revenue at ~20% with high‑20s restaurant‑level margins, even in a tougher demand environment. ^[44]
Guidance cuts were a reality check, not a collapse. Lowered same‑store sales and margin targets spooked the market, but they still point to a profitable, expanding chain — just at a slightly slower pace than earlier in the year. ^[45]
Institutions are buying the dip. Today’s 13F disclosures reinforce the idea that large, long‑term investors are comfortable stepping in with the stock near its lows. ^[46]
Sentiment remains fragile. Heavy put buying earlier this week and the stock’s huge drawdown from the highs show that plenty of investors remain skeptical — or at least hedged. ^[47]

For prospective and current shareholders, the key questions now are:

Can CAVA sustain double‑digit revenue growth while opening 60–70 new restaurants a year without sacrificing returns? ^[48]
Will demand from younger, more price‑sensitive consumers stabilize in 2026 as macro headwinds ease? ^[49]
Does today’s price adequately compensate for the risks of a high‑growth, high‑volatility restaurant stock? With shares still trading at a premium multiple and more than 50% below their peak, opinions will differ. ^[50]

Bottom Line

As of November 22, 2025, CAVA Group sits at an interesting crossroads:

Operationally, the company is still executing on a long‑term plan toward 1,000+ restaurants, with strong unit economics and a brand that is expanding into grocery aisles and now branded apparel. ^[51]
Financially, it remains profitable with robust margins — but no longer immune to the broader slowdown hitting fast‑casual dining. ^[52]
In the market, CAVA is a battleground stock: bears point to guidance cuts, demanding valuations and macro risks, while bulls see a category leader being offered at a significant discount to its summer highs.

Friday’s double‑digit rally, fueled by institutional buying and renewed attention to the growth story, suggests that, for now, the bulls have regained control of the narrative.

This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your own research or consult a licensed financial professional before making investment decisions.