Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) heads into the new trading week trying to shake off one of the roughest stretches in its public history. After a brutal post‑earnings sell‑off, the stock finally bounced on Friday — but it’s still down close to 50% in 2025, even as big institutional investors, Wall Street analysts and the company itself all make moves to reset expectations. [1]
Below is a detailed look at where CMG stands today, November 23, 2025, and the most important news and themes driving the stock right now.
CMG stock price snapshot heading into the week
As of the close on Friday, November 21, 2025, Chipotle stock finished at $31.63, up about 4.2% on the day, but still near its 52‑week low just under $30 and far below its 2025 high in the mid‑$60s. [2]
Key current metrics:
- Last close: $31.63
- Move on Friday: +4.22% [3]
- Approx. 52‑week range: ~$30 to ~$67 [4]
- Market cap: around $42 billion [5]
- Trailing P/E: roughly 27–28x earnings, versus ~23–26x for the S&P 500 depending on the source and calculation. [6]
From a performance standpoint, CMG has almost halved in 2025 and is down close to 50% over the last year, putting it firmly in “fallen favorite” territory even after last week’s rebound. [7]
The freshest CMG news for November 23, 2025
Most of today’s Chipotle‑related headlines are about valuation and institutional ownership — not new earnings — since U.S. markets are closed over the weekend. Here’s what hit on November 23.
1. Simply Wall St: Is CMG finally undervalued?
A new Simply Wall St note published today argues that the recent collapse in CMG’s share price has pushed the stock below its estimated fair value. [8]
Highlights from their analysis:
- They estimate a fair value around $43 per share based on cash‑flow modelling, versus the current ~$32 price, implying roughly 25–35% upside from here. [9]
- CMG trades on a P/E in the high‑20s, slightly above the broader U.S. hospitality average (around 21x), but below many “quality growth” peers in fast‑casual dining. [10]
- They note a 1‑day gain of about 4% but a year‑to‑date drawdown of roughly 47%, underscoring how violent the recent sell‑off has been. [11]
In short, Simply Wall St frames CMG as fundamentally solid but sentiment‑crushed, with valuation starting to look attractive if earnings don’t deteriorate further.
2. Ensign Peak Advisors trims its CMG position
In a 13F‑style filing summarized by MarketBeat today, Ensign Peak Advisors Inc. disclosed a 24.8% reduction in its Chipotle stake during the second quarter. [12]
Key points:
- Ensign Peak sold about 80,000 shares, ending Q2 with roughly 243,000 shares of CMG.
- The remaining position was worth ~$13.6 million at the time of that filing. [13]
- The article also reiterates that institutional investors own about 91% of Chipotle’s float, reinforcing that CMG remains largely in professional hands. [14]
While the sale is backward‑looking (Q2 data), its publication today feeds into the narrative that some large funds have been de‑risking after the post‑earnings collapse.
3. American Century Companies boosts its Chipotle stake
Balancing that selling pressure, a separate MarketBeat article — also dated November 23, 2025 — highlights that American Century Companies Inc. actually increased its CMG position in the same period. [15]
According to the filing:
- American Century raised its stake by roughly 3%, to over 21 million shares, making it one of the larger active holders. [16]
- The position is valued at around $1.2 billion, and represents well over 1% of the company. [17]
This sends a different signal than Ensign Peak’s trim: some long‑term growth managers are buying into the weakness, not abandoning the name.
4. Legal & General adds slightly to its CMG exposure (from yesterday)
Just one day earlier, on November 22, Legal & General Group Plc also reported a modest increase in its CMG holdings. [18]
- The asset manager added ~66,000 shares, bringing its total to roughly 8.1 million shares, or about 0.6% of Chipotle.
- That stake was valued at about $454 million in the report. [19]
Taken together, the November 22–23 filings paint a nuanced picture: one large institution lightening up, two others adding on weakness, with overall institutional ownership still extremely high.
Recap: the Q3 earnings shock that broke the uptrend
The reason Chipotle is trading near its lows at all is the October 29, 2025 Q3 earnings release, which stopped CMG’s multi‑year momentum in its tracks.
Q3 2025 results at a glance
From Chipotle’s own earnings release and subsequent summaries: [20]
- Revenue:$3.00 billion, up about 7% year‑on‑year, but slightly below Wall Street expectations of around $3.06 billion.
- Comparable restaurant sales:+0.3%, essentially flat.
- Net income:$382 million, versus $387 million a year earlier.
- Net margin: fell from 13.9% to 12.7% year‑on‑year.
- Restaurant‑level operating margin: down about 100 basis points, to roughly 24.5%.
- Diluted EPS:$0.29, matching consensus.
So profitability is still strong in absolute terms, but margin compression and near‑zero comps were not what the market was hoping for from a premium growth chain.
Guidance cut and commentary on the consumer
Chipotle also cut its full‑year outlook, now expecting comparable sales to decline in the low single digits, versus previous expectations for modest growth. [21]
Management and later media coverage highlighted:
- A sharp pullback in traffic from guests under $100,000 household income, particularly 25‑ to 34‑year‑olds, who are shifting more meals back to groceries. [22]
- Chipotle plans not to fully offset rising food and wage costs with price hikes in 2026, accepting more margin pressure to preserve its value perception. [23]
That combination — soft comps, lower guidance and margin pressure — triggered a violent reaction. Several reports noted that CMG plunged roughly 18% in a single session and is now down nearly 50% from its highs. [24]
Sector backdrop: fast‑casual bowl boom cools off
Chipotle’s weakness isn’t happening in isolation. Several recent pieces from major outlets describe a broader slowdown in fast‑casual chains.
- A CNBC analysis notes that the “fast‑casual bowl boom” has stalled, with Chipotle, Cava and Sweetgreen all seeing sales slumps and sharp stock sell‑offs, forcing them to lean more on promotions and loyalty programs. [25]
- A Wall Street Journal feature on Chipotle’s younger customers describes how Millennials and Gen Z, especially those with student loans and higher healthcare costs, are cutting back on $10–$15 bowl‑style meals and dining out less overall. [26]
- Barron’s recently highlighted how lower‑income diners are pulling back across the restaurant industry, with Chipotle’s interim CEO Scott Boatwright noting that guests earning under $100,000 (about 40% of CMG sales) are visiting less often and that the negative sales trend continued into Q4. [27]
All of this helps explain why CMG — despite solid long‑term growth — is being repriced: the market is now treating it less like an unstoppable growth story and more like a cyclical restaurant stock exposed to a weakened consumer.
Chipotle’s response: promos, digital, and expansion still full‑steam
Chipotle isn’t just watching the slowdown; it’s actively pushing value messaging and digital engagement while keeping long‑term expansion on track.
Holiday promotions and “value” plays
Recent corporate announcements show a clear pivot toward deals and traffic‑driving events:
- On November 20, Chipotle announced a “Back Home BOGO” deal: a buy‑one‑get‑one free entrée on Thanksgiving Eve in‑restaurant, plus a $0 delivery‑fee promotion over Cyber Weekend for app and website orders. [28]
- The chain also introduced Build‑Your‑Own Chipotle (BYOC), a digital‑exclusive, family‑style meal serving 4–6 people and designed for Friendsgiving‑type gatherings. [29]
- Earlier this month, “Chipotle U Rivalry Week” targeted college towns with free‑food prizes and BOGO offers for students, directly addressing the younger demographic that has been pulling back. [30]
These initiatives line up with what analysts say the company must do: communicate value without bluntly slashing list prices, and use its digital ecosystem to deepen loyalty.
Store growth and international expansion still intact
Despite the near‑term pain, Chipotle’s growth engine is very much alive:
- The company plans to open 315–345 new restaurants in 2025 and continues to target 7,000 locations in North America over the long term. [31]
- Internationally, Chipotle is:
On the ground, local news reports continue to highlight new U.S. locations opening or under development — such as freshly opened restaurants in Texas and other growth markets — reinforcing that Chipotle is not slowing its unit‑growth ambitions. [34]
What Wall Street is saying about CMG right now
Even after the earnings disappointment, most analysts remain constructive, though price targets have come down.
Consensus ratings and price targets
- MarketBeat data shows CMG carries a “Moderate Buy” rating, with roughly 2 “Strong Buy”, 22 “Buy”, 11 “Hold”, and just 1 “Sell” rating. The average 12‑month target price is about $49.81. [35]
- StockAnalysis.com aggregates 28 analysts with an average target of $48.71 and an overall “Buy” consensus. [36]
- 24/7 Wall St. notes that a broader set of 36 analysts now have a mean target around $43.18, and sets its own year‑end 2025 target at $52. [37]
From Friday’s close at $31.63, that implies:
- ~36–40% upside to $43
- ~54–57% upside to the $48–50 range
- ~64% upside to $52
Of course, those are targets, not guarantees, but they show that most of Wall Street believes the recent sell‑off has overshot fundamentals.
Target cuts but mostly intact “Buy” ratings
Several major houses have trimmed price targets while keeping bullish or at least neutral stances:
- Banks such as UBS, Goldman Sachs, TD Cowen, Wells Fargo and Raymond James have lowered their CMG targets, many into the $40–$45 range, but still rate the stock as “Buy,” “Overweight” or “Outperform.” [38]
- A Forbes piece from November 19 calculates Chipotle at about 3.4x sales, 26–27x earnings, and ~26x free cash flow, slightly richer than the S&P 500 but well below the multiples investors once paid for CMG. [39]
That’s the core of the “buy the dip” thesis many analysts now float: growth and margins have slowed, but the valuation has compressed even faster.
Today’s narrative in one sentence: “High‑quality, but did the market overreact?”
Putting everything together, the November 23 story for CMG looks like this:
Chipotle is still a highly profitable, growth‑oriented restaurant chain facing cyclical consumer headwinds — and after a 50% drawdown, big funds, valuation models and Wall Street analysts are increasingly split between calling it an overdone sell‑off or the new normal.
Bullish talking points
Bulls focus on:
- Long runway for growth via hundreds of new stores per year and early‑stage international markets. [40]
- Best‑in‑class margins and a sticky brand with strong digital engagement and loyalty. [41]
- Heavily institutional ownership, with some big players adding on weakness (American Century, Legal & General). [42]
- A stock now trading at “only” high‑20s earnings and mid‑single‑digit sales multiples, rather than the nose‑bleed valuations of prior years. [43]
Bearish (or cautious) talking points
Skeptics worry that:
- Younger and lower‑income guests may not come back quickly, especially if wage growth slows and student‑loan burdens persist. [44]
- Chipotle is leaning into promotions and BOGOs, which may support traffic but could erode pricing power if discounts become expected. [45]
- Management has guided to weaker comps and margin pressure into 2026, meaning near‑term earnings momentum is likely muted even if the long‑term story is intact. [46]
In other words, the debate is no longer whether Chipotle is a “great company” — most agree it is. The question for investors is whether today’s price fully reflects the new, slower‑growth, margin‑pressured world or if the market has overshot to the downside.
What this means for investors watching CMG this week
Heading into the new trading week after November 23:
- News flow is turning more constructive, with institutional buying headlines and valuation pieces beginning to frame CMG as a potential comeback candidate. [47]
- At the same time, macro and demographic headwinds haven’t gone away: fast‑casual spending is under pressure, and Chipotle’s most important customers are acting cautious. [48]
- The stock now sits at a crossroads zone where value‑oriented growth investors may start to get interested, while short‑term traders watch for signs that comps and traffic are stabilizing.
As always, this article is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. Anyone considering an investment in Chipotle should carefully review the company’s SEC filings, earnings transcripts and their own risk tolerance before making decisions.
References
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