Cidara Therapeutics (CDTX) Stock Soars After $339M BARDA Flu-Drug Deal

Stock Price (Oct 3, 2025): ~$104 (trading at $104.13 on Friday morning, up +5.7% intraday) ^[1]. Over the past year, CDTX has skyrocketed (up over 200% YTD, with some analysts noting ~266% growth YTD ^[2]) amid a surge of flu-program news. Shares are near their 52-week high (~$102) ^[3].
Market Cap & Float: ~$2.6 billion (23.2M shares outstanding) ^[4]. Insider owners hold ~23.6% ^[5]; short interest is high (~11.3% of float) ^[6], reflecting speculative trading.
Recent Price Action: CDTX gained roughly 6% on Oct 3 ^[7] after last week’s rally (about +15% over the past 5 trading days ^[8]). The stock is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, and volume is elevated (~390K shares midday vs. ~724K avg) ^[9].
Key News (Oct 1–3, 2025): On Oct 2, Cidara announced a major BARDA award for up to $339M to advance its flu drug CD388 ^[10]. On Sept 25 it reported dosing the first participants in its Phase 3 ANCHOR trial for CD388 ^[11]. Analysts immediately raised forecasts – for example, Citizens Life Sciences boosted its price target to $173 (from $153) on Oct 3 ^[12]. Consensus among 9 brokerages is now “Buy” (average 12-month target ≈$119) ^[13].
Pipeline Focus: CDTX’s pipeline is concentrated on CD388, a once-per-season, non-vaccine influenza preventive (a “drug-Fc conjugate”). Last quarter it had no product revenue (it’s in R&D stage) and is well-funded for trials. Cidara also has early-stage programs (e.g. CBO421 for cancer) ^[14].
Financials (Q2 2025): Cash: $516.9M (Q2 2025) ^[15]. Net Loss: $25.7M for Q2 2025 (vs $91.2M year-ago) ^[16]. R&D spend was ~$24.8M in Q2 ^[17]. (The company has no products yet, so R&D is its major expense.) Cidara raised $402M in equity during June 2025 (at $44/sh) to fund these programs ^[18].
Valuation Metrics: P/E and revenues are not meaningful (pipeline biotech). Price/book ~4.8 ^[19]; trailing EV/Sales is not applicable (no sales yet). The 52-week range is ~$10–$102 ^[20] (CDTX has climbed from penny-stock levels in mid-2024).
Analyst Outlook: Nearly all analysts rate CDTX as a buy/outperform ^[21]. Price targets now range from the low-$100s to high (Citizens $173, RBC $137, Guggenheim $167, Wainwright $110) ^[22] ^[23]. Institutional investors (like Bain Capital LS) recently boosted stakes substantially ^[24]. H.C. Wainwright, a “Top Pick” firm, kept its Buy rating after the BARDA news ^[25].
COVID & Sector Context: Cidara’s flu drug may benefit from renewed interest in pandemic preparedness. Notably, RBC Capital Markets projects peak sales of ~$2.4B (US) for CD388 if approved, rising to $3.7B worldwide ^[26]. Broader healthcare/biotech trends are favorable: analysts note that healthcare stocks have been defensive amid market volatility, buoyed by innovations (AI tools, aging population needs) and possible Fed rate cuts ^[27] ^[28]. In short, healthcare’s recent outperformance (on Oct 2) reflects policy clarity (e.g. drug-pricing deals) and confidence in biotech catalysts ^[29].

Cidara Trading on Oct 3, 2025

On Friday morning Oct 3, CDTX was trading around $104 per share, up roughly 5.7% from Thursday’s close ^[30]. Trading volumes are high as investors digest the Oct 2 BARDA award news. (Finviz shows a sharp jump on Oct 2: GlobeNewswire’s BARDA release coincides with a ~5.7% stock bump ^[31].) Cidara’s one-year chart is steeply upward – from around $10 a year ago to over $100 now (a nearly 900% one-year increase ^[32]). Most of that gain occurred since June, after positive Phase 2b results for CD388 and the $402M financing.

CEO Jeffrey Stein noted on the Phase 3 dosing press release (Sept 25) that dosing the first trial participants “marks an important milestone” for CD388, a “potentially transformational preventative” for high-risk flu patients ^[33]. The BARDA deal press release (Oct 2) added that BARDA funding will expand U.S. manufacturing and “ensure U.S. supply of CD388 in the event of an influenza pandemic” ^[34]. The day’s trading reflected investor enthusiasm for these milestones: CDTX briefly spiked past $105 on Oct 3, nearing its 52-week high.

Recent News: BARDA Award and Phase 3 Start

October 2, 2025 – BARDA Award: Cidara announced a multi-year BARDA contract worth up to $339 million to advance CD388 ^[35]. The first tranche is $58M over 24 months (for U.S. manufacturing scale-up and clinical trials); optional extensions (exercise by BARDA) could add $281M ^[36]. The award underscores the U.S. government’s support for pandemic flu preparedness. In commentary, Fierce Pharma explained BARDA funds will help stand up domestic CD388 production and trials, and quoted Stein saying CD388 “has the potential to be an effective non-vaccine preventative for both pandemic and seasonal influenza” ^[37] ^[38]. Stein added that the deal “will expand our commercial supply capacity, as well as ensure U.S. supply of CD388 in the event of an influenza pandemic” ^[39]. Financial media immediately highlighted the contract – for example, Investing.com noted the stock’s 266% YTD gain and that H.C. Wainwright reiterated its Buy rating (with a $110 target) in light of the BARDA news ^[40].

Sept 25, 2025 – Phase 3 ANCHOR Dosing: Cidara’s own press release announced that the first participants were dosed in the pivotal Phase 3 trial of CD388 ^[41]. This global, placebo-controlled trial (ANCHOR) will enroll ~6,000 subjects, including older adults (65+) and those with comorbidities or immunocompromise, in line with FDA guidance. Stein explained that CD388 “is a potentially transformational preventative for those at high-risk” of flu complications ^[42]. (He noted prior Phase 2b NAVIGATE results showed CD388 gave “important new option” to healthy unvaccinated adults). The trial start was accelerated to align with the Northern Hemisphere flu season.

Other recent updates include the end of Phase 2 FDA meeting in mid-Sept, after which Cidara expanded its Phase 3 design. Analysts noted that FDA feedback suggested one successful Phase 3 trial could suffice for a Biologics License Application, effectively accelerating the program ^[43]. Insider Monkey reported that these moves “gained momentum” for CDTX; it cited the broader population in the trial, doubling U.S. addressable patients to >100M, and said “analysts rais[ed] price targets up to $167” on those FDA-driven plans ^[44] ^[45].

Financial Performance and Earnings

Cidara’s financial reports (Q1 and Q2 2025) reflect a pre-revenue biotech with intensive R&D spending and a now-strong balance sheet. In Q2 (ended June 30, 2025) the company had $516.9M in cash ^[46] – up from $174M at March end, thanks to the $402.5M equity raise ^[47] ^[48]. It reported a net loss of $25.7M in Q2 (vs. $91.2M loss in Q2 2024) ^[49]. R&D expense was ~$24.8M in Q2 ^[50] (much higher than prior year, reflecting the late-stage trials), and G&A ~$4.9M. The reduced loss in 2025 versus 2024 is partly due to elimination of a one-time $85M payment related to its Janssen deal.

No revenues were recorded (CD388 is still investigational). (Historically Cidara had modest collaboration revenue from J&J, but that ended in 2024 ^[51].) The company did strengthen its financial position – besides the June offering, it joined the Russell 2000/3000 indexes in June 2025, which can attract new institutional investors ^[52]. The next financial update will be Q3 results (expected around early Nov 2025), but given the strong Q2, guidance is essentially to fund and advance CD388’s trials.

Analyst Forecasts & Expert Commentary

Industry analysts are bullish on CDTX. As of late Sept 2025, nearly all covering firms have “Buy” or “Outperform” ratings ^[53]. For example, RBC Capital Markets analyst Dr. Brian Abrahams (in a Sept 24 Streetwise Reports article) adjusted his model to reflect the accelerated timeline, pushing an expected FDA approval to 2028. He projects 5.3 million U.S. patients on CD388 at peak usage, implying ~$2.4 billion peak US sales (and $3.7B worldwide) ^[54]. Similarly, after the BARDA news, Citizens Life Sciences increased Cidara’s probability of success (in modeling) and raised its 12-month price target to $173 ^[55]. MarketBeat notes 8 of 9 analysts rate the stock a Buy, with an average target around $119 ^[56].

Analyst reports highlight the robust clinical data: Zacks Equity Research noted CDTX “skyrocketed 218% YTD” on the Phase 2b success and expanded Phase 3 plan ^[57]. Zacks emphasized that NAVIGATE (Phase 2b) met all endpoints at all dose levels ^[58], and the ANCHOR (Phase 3) study was broadened to potentially accelerate approval. Other experts (Motley Fool, Insider Monkey) point out that CD388’s non-vaccine approach – which does not rely on the patient’s immune response – could give it an edge. Motley Fool wrote that CD388 can be given to those who “do not respond to vaccines” or won’t get vaccinated ^[59], underscoring its unique market niche.

H.C. Wainwright, a long-time Cidara bull, reiterated its Buy rating on Oct 3, noting the BARDA contract and saying CDTX had “remarkable momentum” ^[60]. (Wainwright’s unchanged target was $110; the firm still calls Cidara a “Top Pick”.) Several other firms upped their forecasts: Needham raised its target to $100, Guggenheim to $167, RBC to $137, and WBB Securities to $123 ^[61]. MarketBeat’s consensus piece on Sept 29 summed up the sentiment: institutional funds have been adding aggressively, and analysts are increasingly confident in CD388’s blockbuster potential ^[62] ^[63].

Biotech Sector Context

Cidara’s success comes as the healthcare/biotech sector is outperforming. On Oct 2, the S&P 500 Healthcare index rallied, even as broader markets wavered ^[64]. Market analysts noted factors like a White House drug-pricing deal (Pfizer’s MFN agreement) and excitement over biotech innovation (gene therapies, AI in drug development) are fueling gains ^[65] ^[66]. In uncertain times, investors often seek defensive growth, and healthcare fits that mold ^[67]. For example, healthcare’s “defensive nature” and stable demand during turbulence was cited as a reason it bolstered the market resilience on Oct 2 ^[68].

Looking ahead, macro tailwinds may benefit Cidara and peers: industry observers highlight that anticipated Fed rate cuts could lower funding costs, and an aging population sustains demand for new flu solutions ^[69]. Additionally, government and private funding for pandemic preparedness (BARDA, Operation Warp Speed successors, etc.) is a clear tailwind for companies like Cidara. In contrast, some headwinds – like general biotech financing challenges and the need to prove clinical success – remain relevant. But for now, with CD388’s data and funding wins, Cidara is riding the wave of positive sector sentiment.

Quotes: CEO Stein said the Phase 3 launch is “an important milestone” for CD388 ^[70]. He praised BARDA’s backing, saying it will “accelerate domestic supply options” and broaden protection for immune-compromised and elderly patients ^[71]. On the analysis side, RBC’s Dr. Abrahams observed that including older adults in Phase 3 “pulls forward potential approval” and ups the projected market potential ^[72]. As one analyst summary put it, the BARDA award and expanded trial have “bolstered investor confidence” – translating into higher price targets and strong buy ratings across the board ^[73].

Sources: Current stock data and performance from Finviz ^[74]. Corporate releases (BARDA award, Phase 3 trial) from Cidara’s press releases and media (GlobeNewswire, Fierce Pharma) ^[75] ^[76] ^[77]. Analyst commentary and forecasts from Zacks, Motley Fool, Insider Monkey, RBC/Streetwise, MarketBeat, and investing.com ^[78] ^[79] ^[80] ^[81] ^[82] ^[83]. Sector context from FinancialContent’s healthcare market report ^[84] ^[85]. All figures are as of Oct 3, 2025 (market open on NASDAQ:CDTX).